SpaceX IPO: What Investors Need to Know About SPCX  and How to Play It

SpaceX lists on Friday, June 12, at $135 per share, targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation in what would be the largest IPO in stock market history. With the S-1 now public, investors have their first detailed look at the financials behind one of the most anticipated listings in years. The picture is complex.

The Financials

SpaceX operates three segments with very different financial profiles. Starlink (Connectivity) generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, $4.4 billion in operating profit, and 86% EBITDA growth year-over-year, reaching 10.3 million subscribers across 164 countries. The Space segment rockets, Starship development, and Starshield produced $4.1 billion in revenue but ran at an operating loss, with $3 billion directed into Starship R&D alone. The AI segment (xAI, Grok, X) generated $3.2 billion in revenue against a $6.4 billion operating loss in 2025, with losses accelerating to $2.5 billion in Q1 2026 alone.

On a consolidated basis, SpaceX reported $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue, up 33% year-over-year, with Adjusted EBITDA of $6.6 billion. GAAP net loss came in at $4.9 billion for the year, swinging from a $791 million profit in 2024, primarily reflecting the February 2026 acquisition of xAI, which was retroactively consolidated into the financials.

The Bull Case

Starlink’s growth trajectory is difficult to find precedent for at this scale 50% revenue growth, near-40% operating margins, and a satellite constellation that took a decade to build and cannot be replicated quickly by any competitor. SpaceX launched 83% of global mass-to-orbit in 2025 and has reduced launch costs by over 95% through reusability. Its Colossus data center recently secured a major long-term contract with Anthropic for AI compute infrastructure, pointing to a potential third revenue engine beyond launch and connectivity. MSCI fast-track index inclusion and Nasdaq-100 entry within 15 trading days post-IPO will generate significant structural demand from passive funds regardless of near-term price action.

The Bear Case

At $1.75 trillion, SPCX enters public markets at approximately 94 times trailing revenue for context, Nvidia, one of the highest-valued technology companies in the world, currently trades at roughly 22 times revenue, and does so while generating substantial GAAP profits. Morningstar initiated coverage with a fair value estimate of $780 billion, roughly 55% below the IPO price, assigning $611 billion to the core launch and Starlink businesses and $170 billion in probability-weighted scenarios to the AI segment. The firm noted the valuation already prices in execution milestones, including Starship reusability and orbital data centers, that have not yet generated commercial returns. Average revenue per user at Starlink has declined from $99/month in 2023 to $66 in Q1 2026 as the subscriber base expands into lower-price markets. On governance, SpaceX will list as a controlled company under Nasdaq rules, with Musk serving simultaneously as CEO, CTO, and Chairman.

How to Express the View

For investors who have formed a view on SPCX, GraniteShares will launch two products on Monday, June 15. SPAL (GraniteShares 2x Long SpaceX Daily ETF) seeks 2x the daily performance of SpaceX, before fees and expenses, for those with a bullish outlook on SpaceX's growth trajectory. SNK (GraniteShares 2x Short SpaceX Daily ETF) seeks 2x the inverse daily performance for those with a bearish view on the valuation or near-term execution risks.

Whichever direction you’re pointing, we hope your trajectory is a good one. T-minus Monday, prepare for launch.

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