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A mixed week for major stock market indexes with the Nasdaq Composite index strongly outperforming both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index. Increased recession fears prompted by some prominent weaker-than-expected earnings report (e.g., Goldman Sachs, Travelers), extremely weak Chinese GDP growth, hawkish Fed officials’ comments, an unexpected drop in retail sales and a lower-than-expected PPI (interpreted as an indication of weak business activity) pushed all 3 major indexes more than 2% lower through Thursday. Google’s layoff announcement and Netflix’s surprise beat moved stock prices higher Friday perhaps assisted by investor “oversold” sentiment. The 10-year Treasury rate, belying its intraweek volatility (rates fell sharply Wednesday on the back of the retail sales and PPI releases), was almost unchanged with a less than 10bp decline in 10-year real rates offset almost entirely by a rise in 10-year inflation expectations. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index finished 0.7 lower to close at 3,972.61 the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 0.6% to 11,140.43, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.7% to 33,375.49 the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 2bps to 3.48% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) weakened 0.2%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 20 January 2023
23 January, 2023 | GraniteShares
A mixed week for major stock market indexes with the Nasdaq Composite index strongly outperforming both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index. Increased recession fears prompted by some prominent weaker-than-expected earnings report (e.g., Goldman Sachs, Travelers), extremely weak Chinese GDP growth, hawkish Fed officials’ comments, an unexpected drop in retail sales and a lower-than-expected PPI (interpreted as an indication of weak business activity) pushed all 3 major indexes more than 2% lower through Thursday. Google’s layoff announcement and Netflix’s surprise beat moved stock prices higher Friday perhaps assisted by investor “oversold” sentiment. The 10-year Treasury rate, belying its intraweek volatility (rates fell sharply Wednesday on the back of the retail sales and PPI releases), was almost unchanged with a less than 10bp decline in 10-year real rates offset almost entirely by a rise in 10-year inflation expectations. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index finished 0.7 lower to close at 3,972.61 the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 0.6% to 11,140.43, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.7% to 33,375.49 the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 2bps to 3.48% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) weakened 0.2%.
Stock markets moved higher last week propelled by growing expectations of peak and falling inflation and, as a result, a significant easing of Fed monetary policy. All 3 major stock indexes rose prior to Thursday’s CPI release, all but ignoring Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s (and other Fed officials’) hawkish comments reminding the market that the Fed would sacrifice growth over inflation. Thursday’s slightly better-than-expected CPI release showed YoY headline and core inflation fell to 6.5% and 6.1%, respectively (MoM headline CPI actually decreased 0.1%). And while the Fed has warned the Fed funds rate will remain high for a while, expectations of the Fed lowering rates before year end have grown. Better-than-expected bank earnings reports (from JP Morgan and Bank of America) helped move stock prices higher Friday as well. While the U.S. dollar significantly weakened last week, the 10-year Treasury rate only moved slightly lower. 10-year Treasury rates fell 6bps with 10-year real rates dropping 18bps and 10-year inflation expectation increasing 12bps. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index rose 2.7% to 3,999.09, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 4.8% to 11,079.16, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.0% to close at 34,302.81, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 6bps to 3.50% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) weakened 1.7%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 13 January 2023
17 January, 2023 | GraniteShares
Stock markets moved higher last week propelled by growing expectations of peak and falling inflation and, as a result, a significant easing of Fed monetary policy. All 3 major stock indexes rose prior to Thursday’s CPI release, all but ignoring Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s (and other Fed officials’) hawkish comments reminding the market that the Fed would sacrifice growth over inflation. Thursday’s slightly better-than-expected CPI release showed YoY headline and core inflation fell to 6.5% and 6.1%, respectively (MoM headline CPI actually decreased 0.1%). And while the Fed has warned the Fed funds rate will remain high for a while, expectations of the Fed lowering rates before year end have grown. Better-than-expected bank earnings reports (from JP Morgan and Bank of America) helped move stock prices higher Friday as well. While the U.S. dollar significantly weakened last week, the 10-year Treasury rate only moved slightly lower. 10-year Treasury rates fell 6bps with 10-year real rates dropping 18bps and 10-year inflation expectation increasing 12bps. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index rose 2.7% to 3,999.09, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 4.8% to 11,079.16, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.0% to close at 34,302.81, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 6bps to 3.50% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) weakened 1.7%.
Stock indexes moved sharply higher last week, led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Growing expectations ofthe Fed slowing its pace of rate hikes and better-than-expected earnings reports from banks and airlines pushed all3 major indexes up by at least 2.5% through Tuesday. The 10-year Treasury rate, reacting to sharply lower home price growth, falling PMI index levels and hopes of a less aggressive Fed, fell 15bps Tuesday, helping the Nasdaq Composite index move 2.25% higher. Disappointing earnings reports from Google and Microsoft weakened investor sentiment driving index levels lower Wednesday. Meta’s much worse-than-expected earnings report, released after the close Wednesday, contributed to falling index levels with Meta’s share price plummeting 25%Thursday. Thursday’s seemingly better-than-expected Q3 GDP release actually revealed slowing consumer spending and a decline in residential housing investment, both signs of a slowing economy. The increase in GDP was solely attributed to a decrease in the trade deficit with analysts warning that was likely to reverse due to the U.S. dollar’s strength. As a result, 10-year Treasury yields dropped another 7bps. Indexes moved markedly higher Friday following better-than-expected earnings reports from Apple and Intel and despite disappointing results from Amazon. Friday’s YoY PCE core price index increased less than expected but higher than the previous month’s, slightly increasing expectations the Fed would maintain its pace of rate increases and driving the 10-yearTreasury yield 9bps higher. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index rose 3.9% to 3,900.05, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 2.2% to 11,102.45, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 5.7% to close at 32,861.34, the 10-year U.S.T reasury rate fell 21bps to 4.01% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened1.2%
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 28 October 2022
01 November, 2022 | GraniteShares
Stock indexes moved sharply higher last week, led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Growing expectations ofthe Fed slowing its pace of rate hikes and better-than-expected earnings reports from banks and airlines pushed all3 major indexes up by at least 2.5% through Tuesday. The 10-year Treasury rate, reacting to sharply lower home price growth, falling PMI index levels and hopes of a less aggressive Fed, fell 15bps Tuesday, helping the Nasdaq Composite index move 2.25% higher. Disappointing earnings reports from Google and Microsoft weakened investor sentiment driving index levels lower Wednesday. Meta’s much worse-than-expected earnings report, released after the close Wednesday, contributed to falling index levels with Meta’s share price plummeting 25%Thursday. Thursday’s seemingly better-than-expected Q3 GDP release actually revealed slowing consumer spending and a decline in residential housing investment, both signs of a slowing economy. The increase in GDP was solely attributed to a decrease in the trade deficit with analysts warning that was likely to reverse due to the U.S. dollar’s strength. As a result, 10-year Treasury yields dropped another 7bps. Indexes moved markedly higher Friday following better-than-expected earnings reports from Apple and Intel and despite disappointing results from Amazon. Friday’s YoY PCE core price index increased less than expected but higher than the previous month’s, slightly increasing expectations the Fed would maintain its pace of rate increases and driving the 10-yearTreasury yield 9bps higher. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index rose 3.9% to 3,900.05, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 2.2% to 11,102.45, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 5.7% to close at 32,861.34, the 10-year U.S.T reasury rate fell 21bps to 4.01% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened1.2%
All 3 major stock market indexes ended the week sharply higher, increasing markedly at the beginning and at the end of the week. Better-than-expected earnings reports along with the reversal of UK tax reduction/increased spending plans helped propel stock prices sharply higher through Tuesday. Re-emerging concerns of continued aggressive Fed tightening leading to recession pushed the 10-year Treasury yield above 4.20% to an almost 15-yearhigh (almost all the increase was due to rising real rates), pushing stock prices lower Wednesday and Thursday. Reports Friday the Fed may consider slowing its pace of increases following November’s FOMC meeting (when the Fed is expected to increase the Fed fund’s target rate by 75bps) along with better-than-expected earnings reports propelled the major stock indexes over 2% higher, despite the 10-year Treasury rate remaining unchanged near4.2%. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index rose 4.7% to 3,752.15, the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 5.2% to close at 10,859.72, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 4.9% to 31,083.02, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose19bps to 4.22% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 1.3%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 21 October 2022
25 October, 2022 | GraniteShares
All 3 major stock market indexes ended the week sharply higher, increasing markedly at the beginning and at the end of the week. Better-than-expected earnings reports along with the reversal of UK tax reduction/increased spending plans helped propel stock prices sharply higher through Tuesday. Re-emerging concerns of continued aggressive Fed tightening leading to recession pushed the 10-year Treasury yield above 4.20% to an almost 15-yearhigh (almost all the increase was due to rising real rates), pushing stock prices lower Wednesday and Thursday. Reports Friday the Fed may consider slowing its pace of increases following November’s FOMC meeting (when the Fed is expected to increase the Fed fund’s target rate by 75bps) along with better-than-expected earnings reports propelled the major stock indexes over 2% higher, despite the 10-year Treasury rate remaining unchanged near4.2%. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index rose 4.7% to 3,752.15, the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 5.2% to close at 10,859.72, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 4.9% to 31,083.02, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose19bps to 4.22% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 1.3%.
All 3 major stock indexes moved lower again last week falling between 2.5% and 3% ending lower on the week, month and quarter. Persistent hawkish comments by Fed and other central bank officials combined with stubbornly high levels of inflation in Europe and the U.S. increased fears of a central bank-induced global recession dragging stock and bond prices lower. Sharply higher U.K government bond yields and a plunging British pound (versus the U.S. dollar) precipitated by the UK government’s plans to increase spending while at the same time reducing taxes dragged U.S. markets lower as investors grappled with the possibility of a UK financial crisis. Wednesday’s intervention by the BoE saying they would buy gilts no matter the amount, moved UK government bond yields lower and strengthened the British pound and, in the process, propelled US stock markets markedly higher. US stock indexes, however, fell over the remainder of the week with investors re-focusing on recession concerns. Weaker-than-expected durable goods orders and data showing home prices increasing at a sharply lower rate seemingly substantiated slowing growth while a slightly higher-than-expected core PCE Index release and lower-than-expected jobless claims supported the case for continued aggressive Fed tightening. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 14bps over the week but with falling 10-year inflation expectations. 10-year inflation expectation fell 11bps to 2.26% while 10-year real rates rose 25bps to 1.57%. The U.S. dollar moved off its recent highs with the DXY Index falling just under 1%. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index lost 2.9% to close at 3,585.62, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 2.7% to 10,575.62, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 2.9% to 28,730.12, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 14bps to 3.82% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.9%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 30 September 2022
04 October, 2022 | GraniteShares
All 3 major stock indexes moved lower again last week falling between 2.5% and 3% ending lower on the week, month and quarter. Persistent hawkish comments by Fed and other central bank officials combined with stubbornly high levels of inflation in Europe and the U.S. increased fears of a central bank-induced global recession dragging stock and bond prices lower. Sharply higher U.K government bond yields and a plunging British pound (versus the U.S. dollar) precipitated by the UK government’s plans to increase spending while at the same time reducing taxes dragged U.S. markets lower as investors grappled with the possibility of a UK financial crisis. Wednesday’s intervention by the BoE saying they would buy gilts no matter the amount, moved UK government bond yields lower and strengthened the British pound and, in the process, propelled US stock markets markedly higher. US stock indexes, however, fell over the remainder of the week with investors re-focusing on recession concerns. Weaker-than-expected durable goods orders and data showing home prices increasing at a sharply lower rate seemingly substantiated slowing growth while a slightly higher-than-expected core PCE Index release and lower-than-expected jobless claims supported the case for continued aggressive Fed tightening. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 14bps over the week but with falling 10-year inflation expectations. 10-year inflation expectation fell 11bps to 2.26% while 10-year real rates rose 25bps to 1.57%. The U.S. dollar moved off its recent highs with the DXY Index falling just under 1%. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index lost 2.9% to close at 3,585.62, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 2.7% to 10,575.62, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 2.9% to 28,730.12, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 14bps to 3.82% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.9%.
Stock markets fell sharply last week with all 3 major indexes falling 4% or more. Prices fell every day last week except Monday with the FOMC’s decision to raise rates 75bps Wednesday and Fed Chairman Powell’s subsequent comments weighing heavily on market sentiment. The as-expected 75bp rate hike Wednesday was overshadowed by Chairman Powell’s statements rate rises would continue, the labour market would likely soften and the chances of a soft landing were increasingly less likely. Reflecting this sentiment, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 23bps – to its highest level in over 20 years – with the entire increase due to rising real rates and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY index) strengthened 3%. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index lost 4.7% to close at 3,693.23, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 5.1% to 10,867.93, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 4.0% to 29,592.85, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 23bps to 3.68% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 3%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 23 September 2022
27 September, 2022 | GraniteShares
Stock markets fell sharply last week with all 3 major indexes falling 4% or more. Prices fell every day last week except Monday with the FOMC’s decision to raise rates 75bps Wednesday and Fed Chairman Powell’s subsequent comments weighing heavily on market sentiment. The as-expected 75bp rate hike Wednesday was overshadowed by Chairman Powell’s statements rate rises would continue, the labour market would likely soften and the chances of a soft landing were increasingly less likely. Reflecting this sentiment, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 23bps – to its highest level in over 20 years – with the entire increase due to rising real rates and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY index) strengthened 3%. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index lost 4.7% to close at 3,693.23, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 5.1% to 10,867.93, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 4.0% to 29,592.85, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 23bps to 3.68% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 3%.
All three major stock indexes fell sharply last week with the lion’s share of the move lower occurring Tuesday following a much worse-than-expected CPI release. Increasing Monday on hopes of a favourable CPI release, stock prices nosedived Tuesday after Tuesday’s CPI release showed higher-than-expected inflation levels overall and sharply higher increase in core prices (ie, prices excluding food and energy). The Nasdaq Composite index was the loss leader, falling south of 5% Tuesday, with the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average losing around 4%. The sharp decline in index levels came as concerns of the magnitude of rate hikes increased with growing expectations the Fed would increase the Fed funds target rate by a minimum of 75bps in this week’s FOMC meeting. Stock markets edged higher Wednesday only to continue to their move lower Thursday and Friday following a weaker-than-expected FedEx earnings report and warnings of layoffs by Goldman Sachs and office closures by FedEx. The 10-year Treasury rate continued its climb higher, increasing 14bps on the week powered by rising 10-year real rates (up 19bps). 10-year inflation expectations fell slightly, decreasing 5bps to 2.37%. For the week, the S&P 500 Index lost 4.8% to close at 3,873.33, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 5.5% to 11,448.40, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 4.1% to 30,821.50, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 14bps to 3.45% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.6%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 16 September 2022
19 September, 2022 | GraniteShares
All three major stock indexes fell sharply last week with the lion’s share of the move lower occurring Tuesday following a much worse-than-expected CPI release. Increasing Monday on hopes of a favourable CPI release, stock prices nosedived Tuesday after Tuesday’s CPI release showed higher-than-expected inflation levels overall and sharply higher increase in core prices (ie, prices excluding food and energy). The Nasdaq Composite index was the loss leader, falling south of 5% Tuesday, with the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average losing around 4%. The sharp decline in index levels came as concerns of the magnitude of rate hikes increased with growing expectations the Fed would increase the Fed funds target rate by a minimum of 75bps in this week’s FOMC meeting. Stock markets edged higher Wednesday only to continue to their move lower Thursday and Friday following a weaker-than-expected FedEx earnings report and warnings of layoffs by Goldman Sachs and office closures by FedEx. The 10-year Treasury rate continued its climb higher, increasing 14bps on the week powered by rising 10-year real rates (up 19bps). 10-year inflation expectations fell slightly, decreasing 5bps to 2.37%. For the week, the S&P 500 Index lost 4.8% to close at 3,873.33, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 5.5% to 11,448.40, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 4.1% to 30,821.50, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 14bps to 3.45% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.6%.
After 3 weeks of declines, stock indexes moved higher last week. The move higher occurred despite continued strong, inflation-fighting language from Fed Chairman Powell Thursday and a 75bp hike by the ECB Wednesday. Stronger-than-expected earnings reports combined with another week of decreasing jobless claims and a betterthan-expected ISM Services PMI seemed to bolster investor sentiment in the face of recession/slowing growth concerns. The 10-year Treasury continued its move higher, increasing 12bps with 10-year real rates rising 14bps and 10-year inflation expectations falling 2bps. For the week, the S&P 500 Index gained 3.7% to close at 4,067.36, the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 4.1% to 12,112.31, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.7% to 32,151.71, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 12bps to 3.31% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.6%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 09 September 2022
13 September, 2022 | GraniteShares
After 3 weeks of declines, stock indexes moved higher last week. The move higher occurred despite continued strong, inflation-fighting language from Fed Chairman Powell Thursday and a 75bp hike by the ECB Wednesday. Stronger-than-expected earnings reports combined with another week of decreasing jobless claims and a betterthan-expected ISM Services PMI seemed to bolster investor sentiment in the face of recession/slowing growth concerns. The 10-year Treasury continued its move higher, increasing 12bps with 10-year real rates rising 14bps and 10-year inflation expectations falling 2bps. For the week, the S&P 500 Index gained 3.7% to close at 4,067.36, the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 4.1% to 12,112.31, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.7% to 32,151.71, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 12bps to 3.31% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.6%.
Stock markets declined again last week, continuing their trend lower following Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole comments the previous Friday. Indications of a resilient economy, including a better-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI and lower-than-expected jobless claims, added to sentiment the Fed would likely continue its aggressive tightening policies. Friday’s Employment Report showing as-expected job gains but lower-thanexpected wage increases and a higher-than-expected unemployment rate, initially moved stock prices higher on hopes the report would give the Fed room to be less aggressive. Those hopes faded throughout the day, however, with all 3 major stock market indexes moving lower on the day. The 10-year Treasury rate, reflecting higher-rate expectations, rose 16bps over the week with 10-year real rates rising 26bps and 10-year inflation expectations falling 10bps. The U.S. dollar, also reflecting higher-rate expectations, strengthened ¾ percent. For the week, the S&P 500 Index fell 3.3% to 3,924.26, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 4.2% to 11,630.86, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 3.0% to 31,318.84, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 16bps to 3.19% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.7%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 02 September 2022
06 September, 2022 | GraniteShares
Stock markets declined again last week, continuing their trend lower following Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole comments the previous Friday. Indications of a resilient economy, including a better-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI and lower-than-expected jobless claims, added to sentiment the Fed would likely continue its aggressive tightening policies. Friday’s Employment Report showing as-expected job gains but lower-thanexpected wage increases and a higher-than-expected unemployment rate, initially moved stock prices higher on hopes the report would give the Fed room to be less aggressive. Those hopes faded throughout the day, however, with all 3 major stock market indexes moving lower on the day. The 10-year Treasury rate, reflecting higher-rate expectations, rose 16bps over the week with 10-year real rates rising 26bps and 10-year inflation expectations falling 10bps. The U.S. dollar, also reflecting higher-rate expectations, strengthened ¾ percent. For the week, the S&P 500 Index fell 3.3% to 3,924.26, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 4.2% to 11,630.86, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 3.0% to 31,318.84, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 16bps to 3.19% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.7%.
Amidst uncertainty surrounding Fed Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole speech Friday, all 3 major stock market indexes moved slightly lower through Thursday, falling between ½ percent and a little over a 1 percent. Powell’s comments Friday affirmed the Fed’s intent to maintain its vigilance against inflation, knocking all 3 major stock market indexes lower by 3% or more. The move lower Friday came despite indications of peaking inflation and a slowing economy with the PCE Price Index (the Fed’s preferred inflation measure) increasing less than expected, durable goods orders less than expected and with the composite PMI declining further below 50. The 10-year Treasury, interestingly, moved only slightly higher, rising 5bps on the week mainly due to higher 10-year real rates. For the week, the S&P 500 Index fell 4% to 4,057.66, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 4.4% to 12,141.71, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 4.2% to 32,282.80, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 5bps to 3.03% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.6%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 26 August 2022
30 August, 2022 | GraniteShares
Amidst uncertainty surrounding Fed Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole speech Friday, all 3 major stock market indexes moved slightly lower through Thursday, falling between ½ percent and a little over a 1 percent. Powell’s comments Friday affirmed the Fed’s intent to maintain its vigilance against inflation, knocking all 3 major stock market indexes lower by 3% or more. The move lower Friday came despite indications of peaking inflation and a slowing economy with the PCE Price Index (the Fed’s preferred inflation measure) increasing less than expected, durable goods orders less than expected and with the composite PMI declining further below 50. The 10-year Treasury, interestingly, moved only slightly higher, rising 5bps on the week mainly due to higher 10-year real rates. For the week, the S&P 500 Index fell 4% to 4,057.66, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 4.4% to 12,141.71, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 4.2% to 32,282.80, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 5bps to 3.03% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.6%.
All three major stock indexes moved lower last week with the Nasdaq Composite Index significantly underperforming the other two. Early-week sentiment of peaking inflation and a more benign Fed began reversing mid-week following Wednesday’s release of FOMC minutes. Increasing concerns the Fed may continue its aggressive tightening, perhaps hiking rates 75bps higher again in September, combined with hawkish comments from Fed officials and signs of a still resilient job market, moved stock prices markedly lower Friday. The 10-year Treasury rate, lower through Tuesday, climbed higher the rest of the week reflecting both inflation and Fed policy concerns. Similarly, the U.S. dollar powered higher last week with the DXY index increasing just shy of 2.5%. For the week, the S&P 500 Index decreased 1.2% to 4,228.48, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 2.6% to 12,705.21, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged lower 0.2% to 33,706.15, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 14bps to 2.98% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 2.4%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 19 August 2022
23 August, 2022 | GraniteShares
All three major stock indexes moved lower last week with the Nasdaq Composite Index significantly underperforming the other two. Early-week sentiment of peaking inflation and a more benign Fed began reversing mid-week following Wednesday’s release of FOMC minutes. Increasing concerns the Fed may continue its aggressive tightening, perhaps hiking rates 75bps higher again in September, combined with hawkish comments from Fed officials and signs of a still resilient job market, moved stock prices markedly lower Friday. The 10-year Treasury rate, lower through Tuesday, climbed higher the rest of the week reflecting both inflation and Fed policy concerns. Similarly, the U.S. dollar powered higher last week with the DXY index increasing just shy of 2.5%. For the week, the S&P 500 Index decreased 1.2% to 4,228.48, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 2.6% to 12,705.21, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged lower 0.2% to 33,706.15, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 14bps to 2.98% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 2.4%.
Stock markets moved higher last week powered by lower-than-expected CPI and PPI releases. All three major indexes rose 3% or more with the S&P 500 Index slightly outperforming the Nasdaq Composite Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Stock prices were lower through Tuesday tilted by weak earnings reports from Nvidia, Palantir and Micron, the previous Friday’s much stronger-than-expected payroll report and in anticipation of Wednesday’s CPI release. The much lower-than-expected CPI release Wednesday powered stock markets higher with growing expectations of a less aggressive Fed and, consequently, diminishing recession concerns. Stock markets paused on Thursday but resumed their move higher Friday on good earnings reports and improved consumer sentiment. The 10-year Treasury rate edged slightly higher last week, increasing 2bps with 10-year real rates and 10-year inflation expectations both increasing 1bp. For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 3.3% to 4,280.15, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 3.1% to 13,047.19, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged gained 2.9% to close at 33,761.11, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 2bps to 2.84% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.9%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 12 August 2022
16 August, 2022 | GraniteShares
Stock markets moved higher last week powered by lower-than-expected CPI and PPI releases. All three major indexes rose 3% or more with the S&P 500 Index slightly outperforming the Nasdaq Composite Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Stock prices were lower through Tuesday tilted by weak earnings reports from Nvidia, Palantir and Micron, the previous Friday’s much stronger-than-expected payroll report and in anticipation of Wednesday’s CPI release. The much lower-than-expected CPI release Wednesday powered stock markets higher with growing expectations of a less aggressive Fed and, consequently, diminishing recession concerns. Stock markets paused on Thursday but resumed their move higher Friday on good earnings reports and improved consumer sentiment. The 10-year Treasury rate edged slightly higher last week, increasing 2bps with 10-year real rates and 10-year inflation expectations both increasing 1bp. For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 3.3% to 4,280.15, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 3.1% to 13,047.19, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged gained 2.9% to close at 33,761.11, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 2bps to 2.84% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.9%.
Stock prices mainly moved higher last week with the Nasdaq Composite Index strongly outperforming the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the SP 500 Index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished slightly lower on the week. Geo-political concerns dominated stock markets early in the week. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s vist to Taiwan and China’s strong condemnation of it pushed stock prices lower and bond and gold prices higher as investors sought haven-type investments. Wednesday’s strong ISM Services report and Friday’s much betterthan-expected jobs report renewed concerns of continued aggressive Fed tightening capping stock gains, driving the 10-year Treasury rate higher and strengthening the U.S. dollar. The 10-year Treasury rate increased 17bps over the week with a 25bp increase in 10-year real rates offset by an 8bp decline in 10-year inflation expectations. For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 0.4% to 4,145.19, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.1% to 12,657.55, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged lower 0.1% to 32,801.51, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 17bps to 2.82% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.7%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 05 August 2022
09 August, 2022 | GraniteShares
Stock prices mainly moved higher last week with the Nasdaq Composite Index strongly outperforming the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the SP 500 Index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished slightly lower on the week. Geo-political concerns dominated stock markets early in the week. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s vist to Taiwan and China’s strong condemnation of it pushed stock prices lower and bond and gold prices higher as investors sought haven-type investments. Wednesday’s strong ISM Services report and Friday’s much betterthan-expected jobs report renewed concerns of continued aggressive Fed tightening capping stock gains, driving the 10-year Treasury rate higher and strengthening the U.S. dollar. The 10-year Treasury rate increased 17bps over the week with a 25bp increase in 10-year real rates offset by an 8bp decline in 10-year inflation expectations. For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 0.4% to 4,145.19, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.1% to 12,657.55, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged lower 0.1% to 32,801.51, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 17bps to 2.82% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.7%.
Stock prices moved higher last week, struggling before Wednesday’s FOMC announcement and then rallying afterwards. Concerns of slower growth and weak earnings reports (accentuated by Walmart’s worse-than expected report after hours Monday) in front of Wednesday’s FOMC announcement pressured prices lower through Tuesday. Wednesday’s as-expected 75bp rate hike, combined with announcement wording suggesting the Fed would be less aggressive going forward, spurred stock prices higher. This risk-on sentiment continued through Friday despite Thursday’s report showing GDP contracted 0.9% in June, the second contraction in a row. Strong earnings reports from Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon were responsible for stock markets moving higher as well. The 10-year Treasury rate, reacting to expectations of a less aggressive Fed, decreased 10bps. Interestingly, the decline resulted from a 30bp decrease in 10-year real rates offset by a 20bp increase in 10-year inflation expectations. Similarly, the U.S. dollar weakened, also reacting to prospects of less aggressive Fed tightening visà-vis other central banks. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index rose 4.3% to 4,130.29, the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 4.7% to 12,390.69, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 3.0% to 32,846.45, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 10 bps to 2.65% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.7%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 29 July 2022
02 August, 2022 | GraniteShares
Stock prices moved higher last week, struggling before Wednesday’s FOMC announcement and then rallying afterwards. Concerns of slower growth and weak earnings reports (accentuated by Walmart’s worse-than expected report after hours Monday) in front of Wednesday’s FOMC announcement pressured prices lower through Tuesday. Wednesday’s as-expected 75bp rate hike, combined with announcement wording suggesting the Fed would be less aggressive going forward, spurred stock prices higher. This risk-on sentiment continued through Friday despite Thursday’s report showing GDP contracted 0.9% in June, the second contraction in a row. Strong earnings reports from Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon were responsible for stock markets moving higher as well. The 10-year Treasury rate, reacting to expectations of a less aggressive Fed, decreased 10bps. Interestingly, the decline resulted from a 30bp decrease in 10-year real rates offset by a 20bp increase in 10-year inflation expectations. Similarly, the U.S. dollar weakened, also reacting to prospects of less aggressive Fed tightening visà-vis other central banks. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index rose 4.3% to 4,130.29, the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 4.7% to 12,390.69, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 3.0% to 32,846.45, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 10 bps to 2.65% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.7%.
U.S. stock markets ended the week higher with all 3 major indexes increasing 2% or more and with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index outperforming. Better-than-expected earnings reports were the primary driver for higher stock prices, assisted by a weaker U.S. dollar and falling Treasury rates. Stock markets moved lower Friday, however, following a batch of weaker-than-expected earnings reports. The Nasdaq Composite Index, for example, up over 5% through Thursday, fell almost almost 2% Friday to end the week up 3.3%. The 10-year Treasury rate fell again last week, decreasing 18bps with 10-year real yields responsible for almost the entire move lower. 10- year real yields ended the week at 41bps, down 14bps from the previous week’s close of 55bps. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index gained 2.5% to close at 3,961.63, the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 3.3% to 11,834.11, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.0% to 31,900.61, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 18 bps to 2.75% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 1.3%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 22 July 2022
26 July, 2022 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets ended the week higher with all 3 major indexes increasing 2% or more and with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index outperforming. Better-than-expected earnings reports were the primary driver for higher stock prices, assisted by a weaker U.S. dollar and falling Treasury rates. Stock markets moved lower Friday, however, following a batch of weaker-than-expected earnings reports. The Nasdaq Composite Index, for example, up over 5% through Thursday, fell almost almost 2% Friday to end the week up 3.3%. The 10-year Treasury rate fell again last week, decreasing 18bps with 10-year real yields responsible for almost the entire move lower. 10- year real yields ended the week at 41bps, down 14bps from the previous week’s close of 55bps. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index gained 2.5% to close at 3,961.63, the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 3.3% to 11,834.11, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.0% to 31,900.61, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 18 bps to 2.75% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 1.3%.
Stock markets moved lower again last week with inflation/recession fears dominating markets. Higher-thanexpected CPI and PPI releases (Wednesday and Thursday, respectively) rekindled Fed-induced recession concerns with rising expectations of continued aggressive Fed tightening. Weaker-than-expected earnings reports from JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley pushed financial stocks lower, contributing to the overall market’s decline. Stock markets recovered a good portion of their losses through Thursday on Friday, however, with a stronger-thanexpected retail sales report and better-than-expected earnings reports from Wells Fargo, Citigroup and UnitedHealth Group somewhat ameliorating recession concerns. The 10-year Treasury rate decreased 15bps last week, perhaps reflecting investor sentiment that inflation has peaked and that the Fed will act to reduce rates sooner than expected. 10-year real yields were responsible for the all the decline in the 10-year Treasury rate, falling 16bps to 55bps from 71bps at the end of the previous week. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index decreased 0.9% to 3,863.16, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.6% to 11,452.42, the Dow Jones Industrial Average inched lower 0.2% to 31,286.20, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 15 bps to 2.93% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 1.0%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 15 July 2022
19 July, 2022 | GraniteShares
Stock markets moved lower again last week with inflation/recession fears dominating markets. Higher-thanexpected CPI and PPI releases (Wednesday and Thursday, respectively) rekindled Fed-induced recession concerns with rising expectations of continued aggressive Fed tightening. Weaker-than-expected earnings reports from JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley pushed financial stocks lower, contributing to the overall market’s decline. Stock markets recovered a good portion of their losses through Thursday on Friday, however, with a stronger-thanexpected retail sales report and better-than-expected earnings reports from Wells Fargo, Citigroup and UnitedHealth Group somewhat ameliorating recession concerns. The 10-year Treasury rate decreased 15bps last week, perhaps reflecting investor sentiment that inflation has peaked and that the Fed will act to reduce rates sooner than expected. 10-year real yields were responsible for the all the decline in the 10-year Treasury rate, falling 16bps to 55bps from 71bps at the end of the previous week. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index decreased 0.9% to 3,863.16, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.6% to 11,452.42, the Dow Jones Industrial Average inched lower 0.2% to 31,286.20, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 15 bps to 2.93% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 1.0%.
Stock markets moved higher last week with all 3 major stock indexes posting gains. The Nasdaq Composite Index strongly outperformed the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, boosted by strong tech stock performance. Risk-on sentiment combined with growing expectations inflation my have peaked drove stock prices higher through Thursday. Wednesday’s FOMC minutes release confirmed the Fed’s commitment to fight inflation even at the risk of recession, spurring stock prices - especially tech stock prices – higher as inflation concerns mitigated. Friday’s stronger-than-expected Non-Farm payroll report somewhat renewed inflation concerns and increased expectations of aggressive Fed tightening but also contributed to the belief the economy may be strong enough to avoid a recession even in the face of concerted Fed action. The 10-year Treasury rate increased 19bps last week driven almost entirely by higher real rates. 10-year inflation expectations were almost unchanged at 2.37%. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index gained 1.9% to 3,899.38, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 4.6% to 11,635.31, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.8% to 31,339.20, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 19 bps to 3.08% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 1.7%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 08 July 2022
12 July, 2022 | GraniteShares
Stock markets moved higher last week with all 3 major stock indexes posting gains. The Nasdaq Composite Index strongly outperformed the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, boosted by strong tech stock performance. Risk-on sentiment combined with growing expectations inflation my have peaked drove stock prices higher through Thursday. Wednesday’s FOMC minutes release confirmed the Fed’s commitment to fight inflation even at the risk of recession, spurring stock prices - especially tech stock prices – higher as inflation concerns mitigated. Friday’s stronger-than-expected Non-Farm payroll report somewhat renewed inflation concerns and increased expectations of aggressive Fed tightening but also contributed to the belief the economy may be strong enough to avoid a recession even in the face of concerted Fed action. The 10-year Treasury rate increased 19bps last week driven almost entirely by higher real rates. 10-year inflation expectations were almost unchanged at 2.37%. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index gained 1.9% to 3,899.38, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 4.6% to 11,635.31, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.8% to 31,339.20, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 19 bps to 3.08% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 1.7%.
U.S. stock markets ended the week lower with the S&P 500 Index recording its worst first-half performance since 1970 (the first half ended Thursday). Weak consumer confidence levels combined with earnings misses, unexpected lowering of earnings and revenue guidance and hawkish comments by Fed Chairman Powell helped pushed the S&P 500 Index over 3% lower and the Nasdaq Composite Index 5% lower through Thursday. Concerns of slowing growth and recession, however, receded Friday with all three Indexes increasing close to 1%. A slighly lower increase in the PCE price index compared to the previous month (Thursday release) combined with lowerthan-expected Chicago PMI and ISM Manufacturing levels as well as falling household spending helped support stock prices on hopes of peaking inflation and sooner-than-expected Fed easing. Supporting this sentiment, the 10-year Treasury rate fell 25bps last week, this time with almost all the decline coming from falling inflation expectations. 10-year real yields climbed as high as 70bps through Wednesday, but ended the week 3bps lower at 53bps. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index fell 2.2% to 3,825.33, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 4.1% to 11,127.84, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 1.3% to 31,0977.46, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 25 bps to 2.89% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.9%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 01 July 2022
05 July, 2022 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets ended the week lower with the S&P 500 Index recording its worst first-half performance since 1970 (the first half ended Thursday). Weak consumer confidence levels combined with earnings misses, unexpected lowering of earnings and revenue guidance and hawkish comments by Fed Chairman Powell helped pushed the S&P 500 Index over 3% lower and the Nasdaq Composite Index 5% lower through Thursday. Concerns of slowing growth and recession, however, receded Friday with all three Indexes increasing close to 1%. A slighly lower increase in the PCE price index compared to the previous month (Thursday release) combined with lowerthan-expected Chicago PMI and ISM Manufacturing levels as well as falling household spending helped support stock prices on hopes of peaking inflation and sooner-than-expected Fed easing. Supporting this sentiment, the 10-year Treasury rate fell 25bps last week, this time with almost all the decline coming from falling inflation expectations. 10-year real yields climbed as high as 70bps through Wednesday, but ended the week 3bps lower at 53bps. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index fell 2.2% to 3,825.33, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 4.1% to 11,127.84, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 1.3% to 31,0977.46, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 25 bps to 2.89% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.9%.
A sharp reversal higher for all 3 major stock indexes last week with yhr Nasdaq Composite Index outperforming both the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. All 3 indexes moved higher by 2% or more Tuesday nd then rose another 3% or more on Friday. Growing expectations of the possibility of a recession drove investor sentiment last week, pushing markets higher on the belief the Fed’s aggressive battle against inflation will lead to lower rates sooner than expected. Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony before Congress Wednesday and Thursday affirmed the Fed’s commitment to strongly fight inflation even with the odds of a soft landing decreasing. Friday’s weak economic data releases added to this sentiment with the PMI Composite reaching a 5-month low and with he University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment recording another all-time low. The 10-year Treasury rate decreased 9bps last week, with almost all the decline coming from falling real rates. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index rose 6.5% to 3,911.74, the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 7.5% to close at 11,607.62, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 5.4% to 31,503.71, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 9 bps to 3.14% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.5%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 24 June 2022
28 June, 2022 | GraniteShares
A sharp reversal higher for all 3 major stock indexes last week with yhr Nasdaq Composite Index outperforming both the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. All 3 indexes moved higher by 2% or more Tuesday nd then rose another 3% or more on Friday. Growing expectations of the possibility of a recession drove investor sentiment last week, pushing markets higher on the belief the Fed’s aggressive battle against inflation will lead to lower rates sooner than expected. Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony before Congress Wednesday and Thursday affirmed the Fed’s commitment to strongly fight inflation even with the odds of a soft landing decreasing. Friday’s weak economic data releases added to this sentiment with the PMI Composite reaching a 5-month low and with he University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment recording another all-time low. The 10-year Treasury rate decreased 9bps last week, with almost all the decline coming from falling real rates. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index rose 6.5% to 3,911.74, the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 7.5% to close at 11,607.62, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 5.4% to 31,503.71, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 9 bps to 3.14% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.5%.
Yet another volatile week for U.S. stock markets with steep declines in all 3 major indexes. The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped more than 4% on Tuesday and Thursday, the S&P 500 Index fell south of 3% on those same days and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, following suit, lost 2.5% or more. Fears of a Fed-induced recession, reinforced by the previous Friday’s CPI release, pushed stock prices lower throughout the week. Wednesday’s FOMC decision to raise the Fed funds target rate 75bps moved stock market indexes higher, rallying on Fed Chair Powell’s comments the increase was unusually large and would not become common. However, investor optimism faded sharply Thursday pushing stock prices markedly lower with growing expectations Fed tightening was likely to lead to a recession. Thursday also saw the BoE raise rates 25bps while the ECB held an unscheduled meeting Wednesday in an effort to provide assistance to struggling euro zone economies due to surging interest rates. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose just under 1.5% Friday on no real news, allowing it outperform the S&P 500 Index on the week by almost 1%. The 10-year Treasury rate rose 7bps over the week with a 26bp increase in 10-year real rates to 0.64% offset by a 19bps decline in 10-year inflation expectations to 2.59%. The 10-year Treasury rate closed well off its Tuesday’s high of 3.49% as did 10-year real rates which closed Tuesday at 83bps.At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index fell 5.8% to 3,674.84, the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 4.8% to close at 10,798.35, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 4.8% to 29,885.08, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 7 bps to 3.23% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.5%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 17 June 2022
21 June, 2022 | GraniteShares
Yet another volatile week for U.S. stock markets with steep declines in all 3 major indexes. The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped more than 4% on Tuesday and Thursday, the S&P 500 Index fell south of 3% on those same days and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, following suit, lost 2.5% or more. Fears of a Fed-induced recession, reinforced by the previous Friday’s CPI release, pushed stock prices lower throughout the week. Wednesday’s FOMC decision to raise the Fed funds target rate 75bps moved stock market indexes higher, rallying on Fed Chair Powell’s comments the increase was unusually large and would not become common. However, investor optimism faded sharply Thursday pushing stock prices markedly lower with growing expectations Fed tightening was likely to lead to a recession. Thursday also saw the BoE raise rates 25bps while the ECB held an unscheduled meeting Wednesday in an effort to provide assistance to struggling euro zone economies due to surging interest rates. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose just under 1.5% Friday on no real news, allowing it outperform the S&P 500 Index on the week by almost 1%. The 10-year Treasury rate rose 7bps over the week with a 26bp increase in 10-year real rates to 0.64% offset by a 19bps decline in 10-year inflation expectations to 2.59%. The 10-year Treasury rate closed well off its Tuesday’s high of 3.49% as did 10-year real rates which closed Tuesday at 83bps.At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index fell 5.8% to 3,674.84, the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 4.8% to close at 10,798.35, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 4.8% to 29,885.08, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 7 bps to 3.23% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.5%.
Another volatile week for U.S. stock markets with all three major indexes losing 4.5% or more. Up close to a percent through Tuesday on hopes a strong economy (inspired by a stronger-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll Report on Friday of the previous week) could weather anticipated Fed rate increases, markets reversed course beginning Wednesday precipitated by earnings warnings from retailers, banks and some large growth companies. Thursday’s ECB announcement that it would raise rates at least 50bps by September added fuel to the fire pushing both the S&P 500 Index almost 2.5% lower and Nasdaq Composite Index almost 3% lower. Markets slid even further Friday following a higher-than-expected CPI release, increasing expectations of an even more aggressive Fed pushing the economy into a recession. Friday’s University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment release registered an all-time low added to selling pressure. The 10-year U.S Treasury rate rose 22bps last week after rising 20bps the previous week and the U.S. dollar moved markedly higher, strengthening almost 2%. This time rising 10-year real rates accounted for almost all of the increase with 10-year inflation expectations increasing only 2bps. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index fell 5.1% to 3,900.86, the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 5.6% to close at 11,340.02, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 4.6% to 31,392.36, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 22 bps to 3.16% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 2.0%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 10 June 2022
14 June, 2022 | GraniteShares
Another volatile week for U.S. stock markets with all three major indexes losing 4.5% or more. Up close to a percent through Tuesday on hopes a strong economy (inspired by a stronger-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll Report on Friday of the previous week) could weather anticipated Fed rate increases, markets reversed course beginning Wednesday precipitated by earnings warnings from retailers, banks and some large growth companies. Thursday’s ECB announcement that it would raise rates at least 50bps by September added fuel to the fire pushing both the S&P 500 Index almost 2.5% lower and Nasdaq Composite Index almost 3% lower. Markets slid even further Friday following a higher-than-expected CPI release, increasing expectations of an even more aggressive Fed pushing the economy into a recession. Friday’s University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment release registered an all-time low added to selling pressure. The 10-year U.S Treasury rate rose 22bps last week after rising 20bps the previous week and the U.S. dollar moved markedly higher, strengthening almost 2%. This time rising 10-year real rates accounted for almost all of the increase with 10-year inflation expectations increasing only 2bps. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index fell 5.1% to 3,900.86, the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 5.6% to close at 11,340.02, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 4.6% to 31,392.36, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 22 bps to 3.16% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 2.0%.
A choppy week for U.S. stock markets with investor sentiment pushed and pulled by uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy, the trajectory of inflation, the strength of the economy and whether major stock market indexes have bottomed. Down almost 1.5% through Wednesday, the S&P 500 Index rose just under 2% Thursday, buoyed by hopes of a slowing economy and peaking inflation following a much weaker-than expected ADP jobs number released Wednesday. That sentiment was reversed Friday after the release of the Non-Farm Payroll report showing larger-than-expected job growth and continued wage pressures. The 10-yearr U.S Treasury rate rose 20bps last week, with slightly more than half of the increase coming from rising inflation expectation and slightly less than half coming from rising real rates. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index fell 1.2% to 4,108.54, the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 1.0% to close at 12,012.73, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 1.0% to 32,989.91, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate jumped 20 bps to 2.94% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.4%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 03 June 2022
07 June, 2022 | GraniteShares
A choppy week for U.S. stock markets with investor sentiment pushed and pulled by uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy, the trajectory of inflation, the strength of the economy and whether major stock market indexes have bottomed. Down almost 1.5% through Wednesday, the S&P 500 Index rose just under 2% Thursday, buoyed by hopes of a slowing economy and peaking inflation following a much weaker-than expected ADP jobs number released Wednesday. That sentiment was reversed Friday after the release of the Non-Farm Payroll report showing larger-than-expected job growth and continued wage pressures. The 10-yearr U.S Treasury rate rose 20bps last week, with slightly more than half of the increase coming from rising inflation expectation and slightly less than half coming from rising real rates. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index fell 1.2% to 4,108.54, the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 1.0% to close at 12,012.73, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 1.0% to 32,989.91, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate jumped 20 bps to 2.94% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.4%.
U.S. stock markets powered higher last week with all three major stock market indexes rising more than 6%.Stronger-than-expected retail earnings reports, a no-surprise release of Fed minutes, increased householdspending and a slight decline in the Fed’s preferred inflation index all contributed to last week’s performance. TheDow Jones Industrial Average increased every day last week while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Indexes moved higher every day but Tuesday when Snap Inc plummeted 43% on profit and revenue warnings. Stock markets moved higher despite some weaker-than-expected economic releases, namely much lower-than-expected growth in new home sales, a larger contraction in Q1 GDP than estimated last month and an over 10-year low in consumer sentiment. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates moved 5bps lower last week with the move lower coming from falling 10- year real rates (down 11bps to 9bs). 10-year inflation expectations rose 6bps to 2.65%. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index increased 6.6% to 4,158.24, the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 6.8% to close at 12,131.13, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 6.2% to 33,213.55, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate decreased 5 bps to 2.74% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 1.4%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 27 May 2022
30 May, 2022 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets powered higher last week with all three major stock market indexes rising more than 6%.Stronger-than-expected retail earnings reports, a no-surprise release of Fed minutes, increased householdspending and a slight decline in the Fed’s preferred inflation index all contributed to last week’s performance. TheDow Jones Industrial Average increased every day last week while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Indexes moved higher every day but Tuesday when Snap Inc plummeted 43% on profit and revenue warnings. Stock markets moved higher despite some weaker-than-expected economic releases, namely much lower-than-expected growth in new home sales, a larger contraction in Q1 GDP than estimated last month and an over 10-year low in consumer sentiment. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates moved 5bps lower last week with the move lower coming from falling 10- year real rates (down 11bps to 9bs). 10-year inflation expectations rose 6bps to 2.65%. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index increased 6.6% to 4,158.24, the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 6.8% to close at 12,131.13, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 6.2% to 33,213.55, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate decreased 5 bps to 2.74% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 1.4%.
Another down week for U.S. stock markets accompanied by continued volatility. Stock prices rose early in the week, with the S&P 500 index increasing 2% Tuesday on stronger-than-expected retail sales as well as on increased risk-on sentiment. That sentiment disappeared Wednesday with all 3 major stock market indexes falling south of 3.5%, precipitated by weaker-than-expected earnings reports from major retailers includeing Walmart and Target. Elevated concerns of decreased consumer spending and lower corporate profits due to high levels of inflation pushed stock prices lower the remainder of week Despite Fed Chairman Powell’s comments Tuesday reiterating the Fed’s resolve to restore price stability, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 14bps over the week and the U.S. dollar weakened. Interestingly, the decline came entirely from falling 10-year inflation expectations with 10-year real rates remaining unchanged. 10-year inflation expectations closed the week at 2.59%, down from almost 3% a few weeks ago. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index fell 3.0% to 3,901.36, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 3.8% to 11,354.62, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.9% to 31,260.58, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate decreased 14 bps to 2.79% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 1.5%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 20 May 2022
24 May, 2022 | GraniteShares
Another down week for U.S. stock markets accompanied by continued volatility. Stock prices rose early in the week, with the S&P 500 index increasing 2% Tuesday on stronger-than-expected retail sales as well as on increased risk-on sentiment. That sentiment disappeared Wednesday with all 3 major stock market indexes falling south of 3.5%, precipitated by weaker-than-expected earnings reports from major retailers includeing Walmart and Target. Elevated concerns of decreased consumer spending and lower corporate profits due to high levels of inflation pushed stock prices lower the remainder of week Despite Fed Chairman Powell’s comments Tuesday reiterating the Fed’s resolve to restore price stability, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 14bps over the week and the U.S. dollar weakened. Interestingly, the decline came entirely from falling 10-year inflation expectations with 10-year real rates remaining unchanged. 10-year inflation expectations closed the week at 2.59%, down from almost 3% a few weeks ago. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index fell 3.0% to 3,901.36, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 3.8% to 11,354.62, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.9% to 31,260.58, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate decreased 14 bps to 2.79% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 1.5%.
U.S. stock markets finished lower last week while experiencing another bout of volatility. Investor trepidation focusing on continued elevated inflation, aggressive Fed tightening, Chinese Covid-related lockdowns and the Russia-Ukraine war combined to push stock markets sharply lower through Thursday with the Nasdaq Composite Index, for example, falling nearly 6.5%. Lower than the previous month’s levels but higher than expected, Wednesday’s CPI release enforced inflation and aggressive Fed tightening concerns causing markets to falter, with the Nasdaq Composite Index reacting the worst, falling over 3%. Stock markets rallied sharply Friday on no new news but perhaps benefiting from investors believing the market was oversold. Interestingly, the 10-year Treasury rate decreased 21bps over the week, with 2/3 of the decline coming from falling 10-year inflation expectations and the remaining 1/3 from falling 10-year real rates. Falling inflation expectations may possibly reflect market sentiment that inflation has peaked. The U.S. dollar continued to strengthen. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index lost 2.4% to close at 4,023.89, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 2.8% to 11,805.00, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.1% to 32,195.94, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate decreased 21 bps to 2.93% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.9%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 13 May 2022
17 May, 2022 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets finished lower last week while experiencing another bout of volatility. Investor trepidation focusing on continued elevated inflation, aggressive Fed tightening, Chinese Covid-related lockdowns and the Russia-Ukraine war combined to push stock markets sharply lower through Thursday with the Nasdaq Composite Index, for example, falling nearly 6.5%. Lower than the previous month’s levels but higher than expected, Wednesday’s CPI release enforced inflation and aggressive Fed tightening concerns causing markets to falter, with the Nasdaq Composite Index reacting the worst, falling over 3%. Stock markets rallied sharply Friday on no new news but perhaps benefiting from investors believing the market was oversold. Interestingly, the 10-year Treasury rate decreased 21bps over the week, with 2/3 of the decline coming from falling 10-year inflation expectations and the remaining 1/3 from falling 10-year real rates. Falling inflation expectations may possibly reflect market sentiment that inflation has peaked. The U.S. dollar continued to strengthen. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index lost 2.4% to close at 4,023.89, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 2.8% to 11,805.00, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.1% to 32,195.94, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate decreased 21 bps to 2.93% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.9%.
Another volatile week with major stock market indexes finishing lower. The volatility last week, however, was concentrated in large offsetting moves Wednesday and Thursday following the FOMC decision to increase the Fed funds target rate by 50bps. The sharp rally Wednesday came as the Fed excluded 75bp rate increases – a possibility the market had considered highly probable – pushing all 3 major stock market indexes 3% higher. Thursday’s sharp selloff occurred on no new news but as investors reassessed their market outlooks given the Fed’s apparent rate-hike path and rising longer-term interest rates. Friday’s better-than-expected Non-farm Payroll Report offered no reprieve from falling stock markets, with some analysts saying it provided evidence the economy remained strong and could withstand aggressive Fed tightening without the risk of recession. Concerns regarding China’s Covid-related lockdowns and the Russia-Ukraine war also weighed on markets. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates rose 20bps to levels not seen in over 3 years. The increase was due entirely to rising real yields (up 27bps to 0.27%) and offset partially by falling 10-year inflation expectations (down 7bps to 2.87%). The U.S. dollar continued to strengthen. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index decreased 0.2% to 4,123.34, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.5% to 12,144.66, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.2% to 32,901.08, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 20 bps to 3.14% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.7%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
The Long and Short of it, week ending 06 May 2022
10 May, 2022 | GraniteShares
Another volatile week with major stock market indexes finishing lower. The volatility last week, however, was concentrated in large offsetting moves Wednesday and Thursday following the FOMC decision to increase the Fed funds target rate by 50bps. The sharp rally Wednesday came as the Fed excluded 75bp rate increases – a possibility the market had considered highly probable – pushing all 3 major stock market indexes 3% higher. Thursday’s sharp selloff occurred on no new news but as investors reassessed their market outlooks given the Fed’s apparent rate-hike path and rising longer-term interest rates. Friday’s better-than-expected Non-farm Payroll Report offered no reprieve from falling stock markets, with some analysts saying it provided evidence the economy remained strong and could withstand aggressive Fed tightening without the risk of recession. Concerns regarding China’s Covid-related lockdowns and the Russia-Ukraine war also weighed on markets. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates rose 20bps to levels not seen in over 3 years. The increase was due entirely to rising real yields (up 27bps to 0.27%) and offset partially by falling 10-year inflation expectations (down 7bps to 2.87%). The U.S. dollar continued to strengthen. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index decreased 0.2% to 4,123.34, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.5% to 12,144.66, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.2% to 32,901.08, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 20 bps to 3.14% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.7%.
A very volatile week for U.S. stock markets with the S&P 500 Index recording 2.5% or greater moves 3 days last week and the Nasdaq Composite Index registering two 4% moves and one 3% move. All three major stock indexes fell significantly last week with the Nasdaq Composite Index underperforming the both the S&P 500 Index and the
Dow Jones Industrial Average. Stock markets were battered by a combination of investor concerns including continued elevated inflation levels, this Tuesday’s FOMC meeting and expectations of an aggressively tightening Fed, slowing Chinese economic growth and weaker-than-expected earnings reports. These concerns, more or less, translate into fears of weaker U.S. economic growth or recession pressuring stock valuations (especially for tech stocks) lower. Thursday’s surprise Q1 GDP contraction along with Friday’s elevated PCE Price Index release seemed to support these concerns as did earnings misses from Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates rose slightly last week but the increase came as real rates rose and inflation expectations fell, perhaps reflecting expectations inflation levels may have peaked. 10-year real rates closed the week at 0% while 10-year inflation expectations finished at 2.94%. The U.S. dollar sharply increased last week mirroring the rise in 10-year real rates. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index decreased 3.2% to 4,131.93, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 3.9% to 12,334.64, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 2.5% to 32,978.52, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 3 bps to 2.94% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 2.0%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
The Long and Short of it, week ending 29 April 2022
03 May, 2022 | GraniteShares
A very volatile week for U.S. stock markets with the S&P 500 Index recording 2.5% or greater moves 3 days last week and the Nasdaq Composite Index registering two 4% moves and one 3% move. All three major stock indexes fell significantly last week with the Nasdaq Composite Index underperforming the both the S&P 500 Index and the
Dow Jones Industrial Average. Stock markets were battered by a combination of investor concerns including continued elevated inflation levels, this Tuesday’s FOMC meeting and expectations of an aggressively tightening Fed, slowing Chinese economic growth and weaker-than-expected earnings reports. These concerns, more or less, translate into fears of weaker U.S. economic growth or recession pressuring stock valuations (especially for tech stocks) lower. Thursday’s surprise Q1 GDP contraction along with Friday’s elevated PCE Price Index release seemed to support these concerns as did earnings misses from Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates rose slightly last week but the increase came as real rates rose and inflation expectations fell, perhaps reflecting expectations inflation levels may have peaked. 10-year real rates closed the week at 0% while 10-year inflation expectations finished at 2.94%. The U.S. dollar sharply increased last week mirroring the rise in 10-year real rates. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index decreased 3.2% to 4,131.93, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 3.9% to 12,334.64, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 2.5% to 32,978.52, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 3 bps to 2.94% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 2.0%.
U.S. stock markets moved lower in another volatile week spurred by hawkish comments from Fed Chairman Powell and outlier weak earnings from Netflix, Verizon and Universal Health Services (Netflix plummeted 35% Wednesday after its after-hours earnings release Tuesday). All three major stock market indexes were higher through Wednesday with risk-on sentiment increasing after two weeks of drawdowns and with sharply falling oil prices. Chairman Powell’s comments on Thursday proclaiming the need to immediately tame inflation and stating a 50bp increase is being considered in May pushed markets sharply lower over Thursday and Friday with the Nasdaq Composite Index, for example, losing over 4.5% over those two days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average continued to outperform both the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 Indexes. Rising 10-year U.S. Treasury rates, reaching a high of 2.94% Tuesday, reflecting investor concerns of continued high inflation and rising real yields, increased expectations of slowing economic growth and even of a recession. While the 10-year U.S Treasury rate ended the week off its intraweek high, it closed 8bps higher due entirely to rising 10- year inflation expectations. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index decreased 2.8% to 4,271.78, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 3.8% to 12,839.29, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.9% to 33,813.44, the 10- year U.S. Treasury rate rose 8 bps to 2.91% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.9%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
The Long and Short of it, week ending 22 April 2022
26 April, 2022 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets moved lower in another volatile week spurred by hawkish comments from Fed Chairman Powell and outlier weak earnings from Netflix, Verizon and Universal Health Services (Netflix plummeted 35% Wednesday after its after-hours earnings release Tuesday). All three major stock market indexes were higher through Wednesday with risk-on sentiment increasing after two weeks of drawdowns and with sharply falling oil prices. Chairman Powell’s comments on Thursday proclaiming the need to immediately tame inflation and stating a 50bp increase is being considered in May pushed markets sharply lower over Thursday and Friday with the Nasdaq Composite Index, for example, losing over 4.5% over those two days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average continued to outperform both the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 Indexes. Rising 10-year U.S. Treasury rates, reaching a high of 2.94% Tuesday, reflecting investor concerns of continued high inflation and rising real yields, increased expectations of slowing economic growth and even of a recession. While the 10-year U.S Treasury rate ended the week off its intraweek high, it closed 8bps higher due entirely to rising 10- year inflation expectations. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index decreased 2.8% to 4,271.78, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 3.8% to 12,839.29, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.9% to 33,813.44, the 10- year U.S. Treasury rate rose 8 bps to 2.91% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.9%.
Yet another volatile week for U.S. stock markets with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index moving
between 1% and 2% 3 out of the 4 trading days last week. All three major stock indexes moved lower last
week the Dow Jones Industrial Average significantly outperforming both the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500Index as value stocks continued to outperform growth stocks. Inflation concerns, spurred by near-record CPIand PPI releases (Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively), rising interest rates, Chinese Covid-related lockdowns and growing concerns an aggressive Fed may precipitate slower growth or a recession were all factors pushing stock markets lower last week. 10-year U.S Treasury rates rose again last week, increasing 13bps. Most of the increase, again, came from rising real rates (+10bps to -0.08%) but 10-year inflation expectations also rose, increasing 3bps to 2.91%. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index decreased 2.1% to 4,392.59, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 2.6% to 13,351.08, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.8% to 34,450.84, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 13 bps to 2.83% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.6%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
The Long and Short of it, week ending 14 April 2022
20 April, 2022 | GraniteShares
Yet another volatile week for U.S. stock markets with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index moving
between 1% and 2% 3 out of the 4 trading days last week. All three major stock indexes moved lower last
week the Dow Jones Industrial Average significantly outperforming both the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500Index as value stocks continued to outperform growth stocks. Inflation concerns, spurred by near-record CPIand PPI releases (Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively), rising interest rates, Chinese Covid-related lockdowns and growing concerns an aggressive Fed may precipitate slower growth or a recession were all factors pushing stock markets lower last week. 10-year U.S Treasury rates rose again last week, increasing 13bps. Most of the increase, again, came from rising real rates (+10bps to -0.08%) but 10-year inflation expectations also rose, increasing 3bps to 2.91%. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index decreased 2.1% to 4,392.59, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 2.6% to 13,351.08, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.8% to 34,450.84, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 13 bps to 2.83% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.6%.
A down week for U.S. stock markets with the Nasdaq Composite Index significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial Average and, to a lesser extent, the S&P 500 Index. The underperformance of Tech/growth stocks vis a vis value/cyclical stocks last week followed statements by Fed President Brainard Tuesday and the release of FOMC minutes Wednesday both strongly suggesting the Fed will act aggressively to subdue current high levels of inflation. Anticipated Fed action included 50bp rate hikes 1 or more times and an immediate $95 billion reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet in May. 10-year U.S Treasury rates soared as result, increasing more than 30bps over the week to finish at a 3-year high and, in the process, punishing tech/growth stocks. While most of the increase in the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate came from a rise in real rates, it’s interesting to note that 10-year inflation expectations increased 6bps over the week to 2.88%. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index decreased 1.3% to 4,488.28, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 3.9% to 13,711.00, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged 0.3% lower
to 34,723.03, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate jumped 32bps to 2.70% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.32%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
The Long and Short of it, week ending 08 April 2022
11 April, 2022 | GraniteShares
A down week for U.S. stock markets with the Nasdaq Composite Index significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial Average and, to a lesser extent, the S&P 500 Index. The underperformance of Tech/growth stocks vis a vis value/cyclical stocks last week followed statements by Fed President Brainard Tuesday and the release of FOMC minutes Wednesday both strongly suggesting the Fed will act aggressively to subdue current high levels of inflation. Anticipated Fed action included 50bp rate hikes 1 or more times and an immediate $95 billion reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet in May. 10-year U.S Treasury rates soared as result, increasing more than 30bps over the week to finish at a 3-year high and, in the process, punishing tech/growth stocks. While most of the increase in the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate came from a rise in real rates, it’s interesting to note that 10-year inflation expectations increased 6bps over the week to 2.88%. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index decreased 1.3% to 4,488.28, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 3.9% to 13,711.00, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged 0.3% lower
to 34,723.03, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate jumped 32bps to 2.70% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.32%.
U.S. stock markets moved slightly higher last week moving higher the first two days of the week on rising hopes of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, falling the next two days as hopes faded and then slightly increasing Friday on the back of an overall stronger-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll Report. Ceasefire hopes and Chinese Covid-related lockdowns helped move oil prices lower Monday and Tuesday, supporting stock prices, while rising oil prices Wednesday (on fading ceasefire hopes) pushed stock prices lower. President Biden’s announcement the U.S. would release 1 million barrels/day from the SPR for the next 6 months (beginning May) drove oil prices 7% lower but failed to push U.S. stock markets higher. Thursday’s PCE Price Index release (the Fed’s preferred inflation measure) showed continued elevated price pressures perhaps pushing stock markets lower due to increasing expectations of a more aggressive Fed. Quarter-end rebalancing and fading Russia-Ukraine ceasefire hopes may also may have helped moved markets lower. Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll showing strong job gains along with a decline in the unemployment rate to close to pre-pandemic levels also showed strong wage growth, capping stock market gains and causing the 2-year Treasury yield to rise above the 10-year Treasury yield for the first time since 2019. 10-year inflation expectations fell 16bps last week (perhaps because of falling oil prices) while 10-year real
rates increased 6bps resulting in 10-year Treasury rates falling 10bps over the week. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index increased 0.1% to 4,545.86, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.7% to 14,261.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.1% to 34,818.14, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 10bps to 2.39% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.2%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
The Long and Short of it, week ending 01 April 2022
04 April, 2022 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets moved slightly higher last week moving higher the first two days of the week on rising hopes of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, falling the next two days as hopes faded and then slightly increasing Friday on the back of an overall stronger-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll Report. Ceasefire hopes and Chinese Covid-related lockdowns helped move oil prices lower Monday and Tuesday, supporting stock prices, while rising oil prices Wednesday (on fading ceasefire hopes) pushed stock prices lower. President Biden’s announcement the U.S. would release 1 million barrels/day from the SPR for the next 6 months (beginning May) drove oil prices 7% lower but failed to push U.S. stock markets higher. Thursday’s PCE Price Index release (the Fed’s preferred inflation measure) showed continued elevated price pressures perhaps pushing stock markets lower due to increasing expectations of a more aggressive Fed. Quarter-end rebalancing and fading Russia-Ukraine ceasefire hopes may also may have helped moved markets lower. Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll showing strong job gains along with a decline in the unemployment rate to close to pre-pandemic levels also showed strong wage growth, capping stock market gains and causing the 2-year Treasury yield to rise above the 10-year Treasury yield for the first time since 2019. 10-year inflation expectations fell 16bps last week (perhaps because of falling oil prices) while 10-year real
rates increased 6bps resulting in 10-year Treasury rates falling 10bps over the week. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index increased 0.1% to 4,545.86, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.7% to 14,261.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.1% to 34,818.14, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 10bps to 2.39% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.2%.
Another up-week for U.S. stock markets with growth/tech stocks outperforming value/cyclical stocks. As in
previous weeks, volatility remained high with the all three major stock indexes experiencing +/- 1% moves 3 days
last week. Stock prices moved lower Monday following Fed Chair Powell’s comments inflation was too high and
the Fed would not hesitate to raise rates by more than 25bps if deemed necessary. Stock markets reacted
positively to these comments the remainder of week, however, choosing to interpret the comments as a vote of
confidence on the ability of the U.S. economy to withstand larger rate increases. Stock markets did move lower
with strongly increasing oil prices (Monday and Wednesday), perhaps indicating investor concerns of stagflation.
The 10-year Treasury rate moved markedly higher last week, jumping 33bps, propelled by Chairman Powell’s
hawkish comments. Interestingly, though, 10-year inflation expectations continued to move higher, climbing 8bps
to just under 3% while 10-year real rates increased 25bps (to -0.5%), comprising the remainder of the 10-year
Treasury rate increase. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index increased 1.8% to 4,543.04, the Nasdaq Composite Index
rose 2.0% to 14,169.30, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.3% to close at 34,861.7, the 10-year U.S.
Treasury rate increased 33bp to 2.49% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY)
strengthened 0.6%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
The Long and Short of it, week ending 25 Mar 2022
29 March, 2022 | GraniteShares
Another up-week for U.S. stock markets with growth/tech stocks outperforming value/cyclical stocks. As in
previous weeks, volatility remained high with the all three major stock indexes experiencing +/- 1% moves 3 days
last week. Stock prices moved lower Monday following Fed Chair Powell’s comments inflation was too high and
the Fed would not hesitate to raise rates by more than 25bps if deemed necessary. Stock markets reacted
positively to these comments the remainder of week, however, choosing to interpret the comments as a vote of
confidence on the ability of the U.S. economy to withstand larger rate increases. Stock markets did move lower
with strongly increasing oil prices (Monday and Wednesday), perhaps indicating investor concerns of stagflation.
The 10-year Treasury rate moved markedly higher last week, jumping 33bps, propelled by Chairman Powell’s
hawkish comments. Interestingly, though, 10-year inflation expectations continued to move higher, climbing 8bps
to just under 3% while 10-year real rates increased 25bps (to -0.5%), comprising the remainder of the 10-year
Treasury rate increase. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index increased 1.8% to 4,543.04, the Nasdaq Composite Index
rose 2.0% to 14,169.30, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.3% to close at 34,861.7, the 10-year U.S.
Treasury rate increased 33bp to 2.49% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY)
strengthened 0.6%.
Volatility continued last week but this time with all three major U.S. stock indexes finishing significantly higher.
Uncertainty surrounding the FOMC announcement Wednesday and continued concerns regarding the war in
Ukraine pushed markets lower Monday, the only down day of the week. Sharply falling oil prices (through
Wednesday) and the FOMC decision to raise the Fed Funds target rate range to 0.25% - 0.50% boosted risk-on
sentiment driving stock markets 1% - 2% higher each day the remainder of the week. The FOMC announcement
Wednesday was deemed to hold no real surprises with the Fed holding off from increasing the Fed Funds target
range by 50bps but indicating it may raise rates by 25bps in each of the remaining meetings this year while at some
point beginning the process of reducing its balance sheet. Reports of progress in negotiations between the
Ukraine and Russia earlier in the week faded as the week progressed and oil prices, down 12% through
Wednesday, rallied sharply Thursday and Friday but nonetheless U.S. stock markets continued to rise, focusing
more, instead, on the FOMC decision and announcement. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 16bps powered by a
23bp increase in real yields and a slight decline in 10-year inflation breakeven rates to 2.9%. The increase in real
rates was more a result of falling haven-investment demand, however, than of the FOMC decision. For the week,
the S&P 500 rose 6.2% to 4,463.09, the Nasdaq Composite Index jumped 8.2% to 13,892.84, the Dow Jones
Industrial Average gained 5.5% to close at 34,749.36, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 16bp to 2.16% and
the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.9%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
The Long and Short of it, week ending 18 Mar 2022
22 March, 2022 | GraniteShares
Volatility continued last week but this time with all three major U.S. stock indexes finishing significantly higher.
Uncertainty surrounding the FOMC announcement Wednesday and continued concerns regarding the war in
Ukraine pushed markets lower Monday, the only down day of the week. Sharply falling oil prices (through
Wednesday) and the FOMC decision to raise the Fed Funds target rate range to 0.25% - 0.50% boosted risk-on
sentiment driving stock markets 1% - 2% higher each day the remainder of the week. The FOMC announcement
Wednesday was deemed to hold no real surprises with the Fed holding off from increasing the Fed Funds target
range by 50bps but indicating it may raise rates by 25bps in each of the remaining meetings this year while at some
point beginning the process of reducing its balance sheet. Reports of progress in negotiations between the
Ukraine and Russia earlier in the week faded as the week progressed and oil prices, down 12% through
Wednesday, rallied sharply Thursday and Friday but nonetheless U.S. stock markets continued to rise, focusing
more, instead, on the FOMC decision and announcement. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 16bps powered by a
23bp increase in real yields and a slight decline in 10-year inflation breakeven rates to 2.9%. The increase in real
rates was more a result of falling haven-investment demand, however, than of the FOMC decision. For the week,
the S&P 500 rose 6.2% to 4,463.09, the Nasdaq Composite Index jumped 8.2% to 13,892.84, the Dow Jones
Industrial Average gained 5.5% to close at 34,749.36, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 16bp to 2.16% and
the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.9%.
Another turbulent week for U.S. stock markets as soaring commodity prices – a direct consequence of Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine and the resulting sanctions on Russia – increased fears of stagflation and markedly slower
economic growth. All three major U.S. stock indexes fell sharply Monday with the Nasdaq Composite Index
shedding over 3.5% and the S&P 500 Index falling nearly 3%. Monday’s move lower was precipitated primarily
by ever-higher-moving oil prices. U.S. stock markets rebounded strongly Wednesday, again predicated by oil
prices (this time falling prices), with reports the UAE and Iraq would be willing to pump more oil to help offset
the White House’s decision to ban Russian oil and gas imports. WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell between
12% and 13% Wednesday. Nonetheless, stock prices resumed their move lower Thursday and Friday directed
by a 40-year high CPI release Thursday (increasing expectations of a more aggressive Fed), no let-up in Russia’s
Ukraine Invasion and continued stagflation concerns. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates rose 26bps over the week
entirely driven by increasing inflation expectations. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate closed Friday at
2.98%, up 27bps from the previous Friday while 10-year real yields remained near recent lows (reflecting flightto-quality demand) of -0.98%. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 2.9% to 4,204.31, the Nasdaq Composite Index
dropped 3.5% to 12,843.81, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 2.0% to 32,943.33, the 10-year U.S.
Treasury rate increased 26bp to 2.00% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY)
strengthened 0.5%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 11 Mar 2022
15 March, 2022 | GraniteShares
Another turbulent week for U.S. stock markets as soaring commodity prices – a direct consequence of Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine and the resulting sanctions on Russia – increased fears of stagflation and markedly slower
economic growth. All three major U.S. stock indexes fell sharply Monday with the Nasdaq Composite Index
shedding over 3.5% and the S&P 500 Index falling nearly 3%. Monday’s move lower was precipitated primarily
by ever-higher-moving oil prices. U.S. stock markets rebounded strongly Wednesday, again predicated by oil
prices (this time falling prices), with reports the UAE and Iraq would be willing to pump more oil to help offset
the White House’s decision to ban Russian oil and gas imports. WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell between
12% and 13% Wednesday. Nonetheless, stock prices resumed their move lower Thursday and Friday directed
by a 40-year high CPI release Thursday (increasing expectations of a more aggressive Fed), no let-up in Russia’s
Ukraine Invasion and continued stagflation concerns. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates rose 26bps over the week
entirely driven by increasing inflation expectations. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate closed Friday at
2.98%, up 27bps from the previous Friday while 10-year real yields remained near recent lows (reflecting flightto-quality demand) of -0.98%. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 2.9% to 4,204.31, the Nasdaq Composite Index
dropped 3.5% to 12,843.81, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 2.0% to 32,943.33, the 10-year U.S.
Treasury rate increased 26bp to 2.00% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY)
strengthened 0.5%.
U.S. stock markets continued to be dominated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict (and ensuing Western sanctions)
with stock prices moving lower amidst higher-volatility, a significantly stronger U.S dollar, falling longer-term
U.S. Treasury rates and sharply rising commodity prices. Fed Chairman Powell’s comments Wednesday before
Congress stating rate increases were likely to begin in March but would proceed with caution in light of the
Russia-Ukraine conflict engendered the only positive day for stock markets with all three major stock indexes
increasing more than 1 ½ percent. Oil and wheat prices, up almost 25% and 40%, respectively, on the week,
increased fears of slower global economic growth adding to downward pressure on stock prices. Increased
demand for haven investments moved gold prices and the U.S. dollar higher and U.S. Treasury rates lower over
the week. Friday’s much stronger-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll Report was overshadowed by Russia’s
bombing of a Ukraine nuclear power plant pushing oil prices 7% higher, 10-year U.S Treasury rate 10bps lower
and strengthening the U.S. dollar 0.9%. For the week, the S&P 500 decreased 1.3% to 4,328.87, the Nasdaq
Composite Index dropped 2.8% to 13,313.44, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.3% to close at 33,614.67,
the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 23bp to 1.74% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index
- DXY) strengthened 2.1%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 04 Mar 2022
08 March, 2022 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets continued to be dominated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict (and ensuing Western sanctions)
with stock prices moving lower amidst higher-volatility, a significantly stronger U.S dollar, falling longer-term
U.S. Treasury rates and sharply rising commodity prices. Fed Chairman Powell’s comments Wednesday before
Congress stating rate increases were likely to begin in March but would proceed with caution in light of the
Russia-Ukraine conflict engendered the only positive day for stock markets with all three major stock indexes
increasing more than 1 ½ percent. Oil and wheat prices, up almost 25% and 40%, respectively, on the week,
increased fears of slower global economic growth adding to downward pressure on stock prices. Increased
demand for haven investments moved gold prices and the U.S. dollar higher and U.S. Treasury rates lower over
the week. Friday’s much stronger-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll Report was overshadowed by Russia’s
bombing of a Ukraine nuclear power plant pushing oil prices 7% higher, 10-year U.S Treasury rate 10bps lower
and strengthening the U.S. dollar 0.9%. For the week, the S&P 500 decreased 1.3% to 4,328.87, the Nasdaq
Composite Index dropped 2.8% to 13,313.44, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.3% to close at 33,614.67,
the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 23bp to 1.74% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index
- DXY) strengthened 2.1%.
Another tumultuous week with U.S. stock markets falling precipitously the first two days of the holidayshortened week and then posting strong gains the last two days. Thursday was a particularly volatile day with
the S&P 500 Index reversing a 2.6% intraday loss to close 1.5% higher. Russia recognizing and deploying troops
to separatist strongholds in Ukraine and then actually invading Ukraine Thursday drove markets lower through
mid-day Thursday, dragging the S&P 500 into correction territory. Thursday’s end-of-day recovery and Friday’s
move higher was jump started by additional but less-harsh-than-expected U.S., UK and European sanctions on
Russia and reports Russia was willing to enter into negotiations with Ukraine but also with investor sentiment
moving from risk-off to risk-on with market participants believing markets were oversold. Friday’s greaterthan-expected PCE price index release seemingly had little effect on stock or bond markets. The 10-year U.S.
Treasury rate moved off its Tuesday’s lows of 1.87%, increasing 13bps through Wednesday and then dropping
slightly over Thursday and Friday to finish the week 4bps higher. 10-year real yields fell 8bps over the week
meaning 10-year inflation expectations increased 12bps to 2.56%. At week’s end, the S&P 500 increased 0.8%
to 4,384.62, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.1% to 13,694.62, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged
0.1% lower to 34,058.55, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 4bp to 1.97% and the U.S. dollar (as
measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.6%
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 25 Feb 2022
01 March, 2022 | GraniteShares
Another tumultuous week with U.S. stock markets falling precipitously the first two days of the holidayshortened week and then posting strong gains the last two days. Thursday was a particularly volatile day with
the S&P 500 Index reversing a 2.6% intraday loss to close 1.5% higher. Russia recognizing and deploying troops
to separatist strongholds in Ukraine and then actually invading Ukraine Thursday drove markets lower through
mid-day Thursday, dragging the S&P 500 into correction territory. Thursday’s end-of-day recovery and Friday’s
move higher was jump started by additional but less-harsh-than-expected U.S., UK and European sanctions on
Russia and reports Russia was willing to enter into negotiations with Ukraine but also with investor sentiment
moving from risk-off to risk-on with market participants believing markets were oversold. Friday’s greaterthan-expected PCE price index release seemingly had little effect on stock or bond markets. The 10-year U.S.
Treasury rate moved off its Tuesday’s lows of 1.87%, increasing 13bps through Wednesday and then dropping
slightly over Thursday and Friday to finish the week 4bps higher. 10-year real yields fell 8bps over the week
meaning 10-year inflation expectations increased 12bps to 2.56%. At week’s end, the S&P 500 increased 0.8%
to 4,384.62, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.1% to 13,694.62, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged
0.1% lower to 34,058.55, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 4bp to 1.97% and the U.S. dollar (as
measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.6%
A high-volatility week with U.S. stock markets pushed and pulled by Russia-Ukraine-U.S. tensions and
all but ignoring inflation and Fed monetary policy concerns. All three major stock indexes fell by 1.5%
or more last week with daily moves of ¾ percent or more occurring 3 times for each index. U.S. stock
prices continued their move lower Monday following the previous Friday’s sell off spurred by a White
House announcement that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was imminent. Markets reversed course
Tuesday, moving higher on Russian reports of troop withdrawal from Ukraine’s border and growing
hopes of de-escalation of tensions (and were mostly unchanged Wednesday following the release of
FOMC minutes). Those hopes were dashed Thursday as NATO rebuffed Russian claims of troop
withdrawal and as the White House again warned a Russian invasion of Ukraine was imminent
causing all three major indexes to move sharply lower over Thursday and Friday. 10-year U.S.
Treasury rates mirrored stock markets, rising 13bps through Tuesday with increasing hopes of
Russian de-escalation and then falling 12bps the remainder of the week as those hopes faded. At
week’s end, the S&P 500 fell 1.6% to 4,348,87, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 1.8% to
13,548.07, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.9% falling to 34,079.12, the 10-year U.S. Treasury
rate increased 1bp to 1.93% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) was
practically unchanged.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 18 Feb 2022
22 February, 2022 | GraniteShares
A high-volatility week with U.S. stock markets pushed and pulled by Russia-Ukraine-U.S. tensions and
all but ignoring inflation and Fed monetary policy concerns. All three major stock indexes fell by 1.5%
or more last week with daily moves of ¾ percent or more occurring 3 times for each index. U.S. stock
prices continued their move lower Monday following the previous Friday’s sell off spurred by a White
House announcement that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was imminent. Markets reversed course
Tuesday, moving higher on Russian reports of troop withdrawal from Ukraine’s border and growing
hopes of de-escalation of tensions (and were mostly unchanged Wednesday following the release of
FOMC minutes). Those hopes were dashed Thursday as NATO rebuffed Russian claims of troop
withdrawal and as the White House again warned a Russian invasion of Ukraine was imminent
causing all three major indexes to move sharply lower over Thursday and Friday. 10-year U.S.
Treasury rates mirrored stock markets, rising 13bps through Tuesday with increasing hopes of
Russian de-escalation and then falling 12bps the remainder of the week as those hopes faded. At
week’s end, the S&P 500 fell 1.6% to 4,348,87, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 1.8% to
13,548.07, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.9% falling to 34,079.12, the 10-year U.S. Treasury
rate increased 1bp to 1.93% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) was
practically unchanged.
All three major U.S. stock indexes moved higher through Wednesday, energized by better-thanexpected earnings reports (including Amazon’s from the previous week) and buy-the-dip investor
sentiment. Thursday’s much higher-than-expected CPI release, showing CPI reaching a four-decade
high, reversed sentiment, pulling stock markets sharply lower. Sharply increased expectations of a
more aggressive Fed raising rates 50bp in March and growing expectations of rate increases at every
FOMC meeting this year drove stock prices markedly lower as investors grappled with the effects of
higher rates on stock prices and with the possibility of continued elevated inflation levels. 10-year
U.S. Treasury rates, reflecting these same concerns, moved 13bps higher through Thursday (closing
at 2.04%) as 10-year real yields rose 8bps and 10-year inflation expectations increased 5bps. Friday’s
late-afternoon White House announcement that Russia could invade Ukraine at any time diverted
investor attention from Fed policy to economic and geopolitical repercussions of an invasion,
dramatically increasing risk-off sentiment and driving stock prices sharply lower while increasing
haven investment values such as gold, U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar. All three major stock
market indexes fell 1.5% or more Friday and the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate dropped 13bps to
unchanged on the week. At week’s end, the S&P 500 fell 1.8% to 4,418.64, the Nasdaq Composite
Index dropped 2.2% to 13,791.15, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 1.0% to 34,737.47,
the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate was unchanged at 1.92% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE
U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.6%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 11 Feb 2022
14 February, 2022 | GraniteShares
All three major U.S. stock indexes moved higher through Wednesday, energized by better-thanexpected earnings reports (including Amazon’s from the previous week) and buy-the-dip investor
sentiment. Thursday’s much higher-than-expected CPI release, showing CPI reaching a four-decade
high, reversed sentiment, pulling stock markets sharply lower. Sharply increased expectations of a
more aggressive Fed raising rates 50bp in March and growing expectations of rate increases at every
FOMC meeting this year drove stock prices markedly lower as investors grappled with the effects of
higher rates on stock prices and with the possibility of continued elevated inflation levels. 10-year
U.S. Treasury rates, reflecting these same concerns, moved 13bps higher through Thursday (closing
at 2.04%) as 10-year real yields rose 8bps and 10-year inflation expectations increased 5bps. Friday’s
late-afternoon White House announcement that Russia could invade Ukraine at any time diverted
investor attention from Fed policy to economic and geopolitical repercussions of an invasion,
dramatically increasing risk-off sentiment and driving stock prices sharply lower while increasing
haven investment values such as gold, U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar. All three major stock
market indexes fell 1.5% or more Friday and the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate dropped 13bps to
unchanged on the week. At week’s end, the S&P 500 fell 1.8% to 4,418.64, the Nasdaq Composite
Index dropped 2.2% to 13,791.15, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 1.0% to 34,737.47,
the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate was unchanged at 1.92% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE
U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.6%.
U.S. stock markets rallied strongly through Wednesday, buoyed by strong tech-stock earnings, with
the Nasdaq Composite Index climbing just under 5%. Wednesday’s after-market Meta Platforms
earnings report all but reversed those gains Thursday, with Meta’s stock price plunging 26% and
driving the Nasdaq Composite Index 3.7% lower. Those losses, in turn, were partially reversed Friday
following Amazon’s after-market earnings report Thursday, with Amazon’s stock price surging just
under 14% and the Nasdaq Composite Index increasing 1.6%. Friday’s much stronger-than-expected
Non-Farm Payroll Report, along with the BoE’s rate increase Thursday and growing expectations the
ECB will tighten monetary policy, drove 10-year U.S. Treasury rates 14bps higher to finish the week
above 1.9%. The U.S. dollar, however, weakened significantly over the week, partly as result of the
BoE tightening actions. The Nasdaq Composite Index outperformed both the S&P 500 Index and the
Dow Jones Industrial Average as investors favoured growth/tech stocks over value/cyclical stocks.
At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index gained 1.6% to 4,500.54, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.4%
to 14,098.01, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.7% to 35,089.15, the 10-year U.S.
Treasury rate rose 14bp to 1.92% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY)
weakened 1.8%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 04 Feb 2022
08 February, 2022 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets rallied strongly through Wednesday, buoyed by strong tech-stock earnings, with
the Nasdaq Composite Index climbing just under 5%. Wednesday’s after-market Meta Platforms
earnings report all but reversed those gains Thursday, with Meta’s stock price plunging 26% and
driving the Nasdaq Composite Index 3.7% lower. Those losses, in turn, were partially reversed Friday
following Amazon’s after-market earnings report Thursday, with Amazon’s stock price surging just
under 14% and the Nasdaq Composite Index increasing 1.6%. Friday’s much stronger-than-expected
Non-Farm Payroll Report, along with the BoE’s rate increase Thursday and growing expectations the
ECB will tighten monetary policy, drove 10-year U.S. Treasury rates 14bps higher to finish the week
above 1.9%. The U.S. dollar, however, weakened significantly over the week, partly as result of the
BoE tightening actions. The Nasdaq Composite Index outperformed both the S&P 500 Index and the
Dow Jones Industrial Average as investors favoured growth/tech stocks over value/cyclical stocks.
At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index gained 1.6% to 4,500.54, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.4%
to 14,098.01, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.7% to 35,089.15, the 10-year U.S.
Treasury rate rose 14bp to 1.92% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY)
weakened 1.8%.
An extremely volatile week for U.S. stock markets with the Dow Jones Industrial Average swinging
from down 1000 points (-3.3%) to close up 100 pts (0.3%) on Monday. Uncertainty surrounding the
2-day FOMC meeting (beginning Tuesday and ending Wednesday) drove market performance as
investors battled hawkish versus dovish outcomes. The FOMC announcement, leaving rates
unchanged but strongly intimating rate hikes will begin in March followed by a possible balance sheet
reduction soon afterwards, squelched a 2%-3% rally in all three major stock indexes, leaving them
slightly lower to unchanged on the day. Tightening concerns, heightened by Thursday’s betterthan-expected GDP release, moved markets lower Thursday only to see those concerns erased Friday
with as-expected PCE Price and Employment Cost Index numbers, lifting the three major indexes 2%-
3% higher. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate was also volatile, climbing 10bps through Thursday on
aggressive-tightening concerns and then falling the remainder of the week to end unchanged. The
U.S. dollar strengthened significantly last week, mainly as a result of Wednesday’s FOMC
announcement. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index increased 0.8% to 4,431.85, the Nasdaq
Composite Index was practically unchanged at 13,770.6, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.3%
to 34,726.20, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 1bp to 1.78% and the U.S. dollar (as measured
by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 1.7%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 28 Jan 2022
01 February, 2022 | GraniteShares
An extremely volatile week for U.S. stock markets with the Dow Jones Industrial Average swinging
from down 1000 points (-3.3%) to close up 100 pts (0.3%) on Monday. Uncertainty surrounding the
2-day FOMC meeting (beginning Tuesday and ending Wednesday) drove market performance as
investors battled hawkish versus dovish outcomes. The FOMC announcement, leaving rates
unchanged but strongly intimating rate hikes will begin in March followed by a possible balance sheet
reduction soon afterwards, squelched a 2%-3% rally in all three major stock indexes, leaving them
slightly lower to unchanged on the day. Tightening concerns, heightened by Thursday’s betterthan-expected GDP release, moved markets lower Thursday only to see those concerns erased Friday
with as-expected PCE Price and Employment Cost Index numbers, lifting the three major indexes 2%-
3% higher. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate was also volatile, climbing 10bps through Thursday on
aggressive-tightening concerns and then falling the remainder of the week to end unchanged. The
U.S. dollar strengthened significantly last week, mainly as a result of Wednesday’s FOMC
announcement. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index increased 0.8% to 4,431.85, the Nasdaq
Composite Index was practically unchanged at 13,770.6, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.3%
to 34,726.20, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 1bp to 1.78% and the U.S. dollar (as measured
by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 1.7%.
Another volatile week for U.S. stock markets with all 3 major indexes dropping 1% or more each day
of the holiday-shortened week. Investor nervousness surrounding tightening Fed monetary policy
was the main driving force behind last week’s move lower, with growing concerns of higher U.S
interest rates decreasing valuations of most stocks but especially of growth/tech stocks. Year-todate, the S&P 500 Index is down 7.7%, the Nasdaq Composite Index is lower by 12.0% and the Dow
Jones Industrial Average is down 5.7%. Despite some notable exceptions (including Netflix and
Peloton), earnings reports YTD have been predominantly positive (ie, beating expectations) helping
to partially alleviate concerns of falling profit margins due to rising input costs. Thursday’s largerthan-expected jobless claims and Friday’s weaker-than-expected retail sales and existing home sales
releases helped move 10-year U.S. Treasury lower but did nothing to reduce stock valuation concerns
due to fears of rising rates. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate, up over 8bps through Wednesday,
actually ended the week lower with falling inflation expectations (-11bps) offsetting rising real rates
(+9bps). At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index decreased 5.7% to 4,397.93, the Nasdaq Composite Index
dropped 7.5% to 13,768.9, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 4.6% to 34,265.5, the 10-year U.S.
Treasury rate decreased 2bps to 1.77% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index
- DXY) strengthened 0.5%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 21 Jan 2022
24 January, 2022 | GraniteShares
Another volatile week for U.S. stock markets with all 3 major indexes dropping 1% or more each day
of the holiday-shortened week. Investor nervousness surrounding tightening Fed monetary policy
was the main driving force behind last week’s move lower, with growing concerns of higher U.S
interest rates decreasing valuations of most stocks but especially of growth/tech stocks. Year-todate, the S&P 500 Index is down 7.7%, the Nasdaq Composite Index is lower by 12.0% and the Dow
Jones Industrial Average is down 5.7%. Despite some notable exceptions (including Netflix and
Peloton), earnings reports YTD have been predominantly positive (ie, beating expectations) helping
to partially alleviate concerns of falling profit margins due to rising input costs. Thursday’s largerthan-expected jobless claims and Friday’s weaker-than-expected retail sales and existing home sales
releases helped move 10-year U.S. Treasury lower but did nothing to reduce stock valuation concerns
due to fears of rising rates. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate, up over 8bps through Wednesday,
actually ended the week lower with falling inflation expectations (-11bps) offsetting rising real rates
(+9bps). At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index decreased 5.7% to 4,397.93, the Nasdaq Composite Index
dropped 7.5% to 13,768.9, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 4.6% to 34,265.5, the 10-year U.S.
Treasury rate decreased 2bps to 1.77% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index
- DXY) strengthened 0.5%.
U.S. stock markets moved lower last week with the Dow Jones Industrial Average underperforming
both the Nasdaq Composite Index and the S&P 500 Index. Elevated inflation levels exhibited by both
CPI and PPI releases Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, capped market gains strengthening
expectations of a more aggressive Fed. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes, up over 1%
through Wednesday, fell sharply Thursday following a PPI release showing a record high 9.7% YoY
increase, pushing both indexes into negative territory for the week. Friday’s weaker-than-expected
retail sales report and disappointing JPMorgan earnings guidance limited S&P 500 gains and pushed
the Dow Jones Industrial Average lower. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 2bps on the week but
with significant swings, falling 5bps to 1.70% Thursday and then rising 9bps to 1.79% Friday. 10-year
U.S. real rates were also volatile, falling 9bps to -0.86% Tuesday and then rising 16bps the rest of the
week to finish at -0.70%. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index decreased 0.3% to 4,662.85, the Nasdaq
Composite Index decreased 0.3% to 14,893.80, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.9% to
35,911.28, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 2bps to 1.79% and the U.S. dollar (as measured
by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.6%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 14 Jan 2022
17 January, 2022 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets moved lower last week with the Dow Jones Industrial Average underperforming
both the Nasdaq Composite Index and the S&P 500 Index. Elevated inflation levels exhibited by both
CPI and PPI releases Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, capped market gains strengthening
expectations of a more aggressive Fed. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes, up over 1%
through Wednesday, fell sharply Thursday following a PPI release showing a record high 9.7% YoY
increase, pushing both indexes into negative territory for the week. Friday’s weaker-than-expected
retail sales report and disappointing JPMorgan earnings guidance limited S&P 500 gains and pushed
the Dow Jones Industrial Average lower. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 2bps on the week but
with significant swings, falling 5bps to 1.70% Thursday and then rising 9bps to 1.79% Friday. 10-year
U.S. real rates were also volatile, falling 9bps to -0.86% Tuesday and then rising 16bps the rest of the
week to finish at -0.70%. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index decreased 0.3% to 4,662.85, the Nasdaq
Composite Index decreased 0.3% to 14,893.80, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.9% to
35,911.28, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 2bps to 1.79% and the U.S. dollar (as measured
by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.6%.
Starting the new year strong, with the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average setting
new records, stock prices reversed course, propelled by the release of FOMC minutes Wednesday,
and headed lower the remainder of the week. The FOMC minutes revealed Fed governors were
more concerned about inflation than estimated and were considering not only a faster tapering pace
– leading to sooner-than-expected rate increases – but also were contemplating reducing the Fed
balance sheet concomitant with rate increases. The minutes pushed 10-year U.S. Treasury rates
higher and facilitated the rotation from tech/growth stocks into cyclical/value stocks with the Nasdaq
Composite Index significantly underperforming both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P
500 Index. Friday’s weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll report, showing a pickup of only 200,000
jobs, did little to reverse Fed-tightening fears with both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite
Indexes moving lower. 10-year U.S. real rates moved significantly higher, rising 34bps to -0.77%. At
week’s end, the S&P 500 Index decreased 1.9% to 4,677.02, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped
4.5% to 14,935.90, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.3% to 36,231.53, the 10-year U.S.
Treasury rate increased 26bps to 1.77% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index
- DXY) weakened 0.3%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 07 Jan 2022
10 January, 2022 | GraniteShares
Starting the new year strong, with the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average setting
new records, stock prices reversed course, propelled by the release of FOMC minutes Wednesday,
and headed lower the remainder of the week. The FOMC minutes revealed Fed governors were
more concerned about inflation than estimated and were considering not only a faster tapering pace
– leading to sooner-than-expected rate increases – but also were contemplating reducing the Fed
balance sheet concomitant with rate increases. The minutes pushed 10-year U.S. Treasury rates
higher and facilitated the rotation from tech/growth stocks into cyclical/value stocks with the Nasdaq
Composite Index significantly underperforming both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P
500 Index. Friday’s weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll report, showing a pickup of only 200,000
jobs, did little to reverse Fed-tightening fears with both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite
Indexes moving lower. 10-year U.S. real rates moved significantly higher, rising 34bps to -0.77%. At
week’s end, the S&P 500 Index decreased 1.9% to 4,677.02, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped
4.5% to 14,935.90, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.3% to 36,231.53, the 10-year U.S.
Treasury rate increased 26bps to 1.77% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index
- DXY) weakened 0.3%.
The S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher last week but off record
highs reached Wednesday. The Nasdaq Composite Index, almost unchanged on the week, suffered
from falling semiconductor stock prices. For the year, the S&P 500 Index increased 26.9%, the
Nasdaq Composite Index rose 21.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 18.7%. On-off
Omicron concerns, combined with relatively light volume, dictated market performance last week
with greatly increasing Omicron cases weighed against vaccine booster effectiveness and the
mildness of cases. It was a volatile week for the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate moving 7bps higher
Wednesday and then falling 5bps Thursday. For the year, the 10-year Treasury rate increased 60bps
from 0.9% to 1.5%. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index increased 0.9% to 4,766.18, the Nasdaq
Composite Index eased lower by less than 0.1% to 15,644.97, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
increased 1.1% to 36.338.30, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 2bps to 1.51% and the U.S.
dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.4%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 31 Dec 2021
04 January, 2022 | GraniteShares
The S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher last week but off record
highs reached Wednesday. The Nasdaq Composite Index, almost unchanged on the week, suffered
from falling semiconductor stock prices. For the year, the S&P 500 Index increased 26.9%, the
Nasdaq Composite Index rose 21.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 18.7%. On-off
Omicron concerns, combined with relatively light volume, dictated market performance last week
with greatly increasing Omicron cases weighed against vaccine booster effectiveness and the
mildness of cases. It was a volatile week for the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate moving 7bps higher
Wednesday and then falling 5bps Thursday. For the year, the 10-year Treasury rate increased 60bps
from 0.9% to 1.5%. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index increased 0.9% to 4,766.18, the Nasdaq
Composite Index eased lower by less than 0.1% to 15,644.97, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
increased 1.1% to 36.338.30, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 2bps to 1.51% and the U.S.
dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.4%.
After falling over 1% Monday, all three major stock indexes rallied the remainder of the holidayshortened week to finish sharply higher and with the S&P 500 Index closing at a record high.
Waning Omicron fears (spurred by reports of booster effectiveness, approval of Pfizer’s Covid pill
and the mildness of Omicron cases) were the primary reason for last week’s gains with markets
relief-rallying after 3 days of significant declines. Tech stocks reversed the previous week’s
underperformance with the Nasdaq Composite Index markedly outperforming both the Dow Jones
Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate mirrored stock market
performances, falling Monday and then rising through Friday to finish just below 1.5% while the U.S.
dollar weakened as investors resumed risk-on investing. For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased
2.3% to 4,725.78, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 3.2% to 15,653.37, the Dow Jones Industrial
Average increased 1.7% to 35,950.63, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 8bps to 1.49% and
the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.6%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 24 Dec 2021
28 December, 2021 | GraniteShares
After falling over 1% Monday, all three major stock indexes rallied the remainder of the holidayshortened week to finish sharply higher and with the S&P 500 Index closing at a record high.
Waning Omicron fears (spurred by reports of booster effectiveness, approval of Pfizer’s Covid pill
and the mildness of Omicron cases) were the primary reason for last week’s gains with markets
relief-rallying after 3 days of significant declines. Tech stocks reversed the previous week’s
underperformance with the Nasdaq Composite Index markedly outperforming both the Dow Jones
Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate mirrored stock market
performances, falling Monday and then rising through Friday to finish just below 1.5% while the U.S.
dollar weakened as investors resumed risk-on investing. For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased
2.3% to 4,725.78, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 3.2% to 15,653.37, the Dow Jones Industrial
Average increased 1.7% to 35,950.63, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 8bps to 1.49% and
the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.6%.
U.S. stock prices moved lower with all 3 major stock indexes decreasing every day last week except
for Wednesday. Tech stocks sharply underperformed last week as evidenced by the Nasdaq
Composite Index which fell almost twice as much as the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Uncertainty
surrounding the outcome of the 2-day FOMC meeting ending Wednesday, exacerbated by Tuesday’s
record high PPI release, and concerns regarding the increase in the number of Omicron infections,
pushed markets 1% to 1.5% lower through Tuesday. Following Wednesday’s FOMC announcement
that the rate of tapering would be doubled along with a dot-plot projection of three 25bp rate
increases in 2022, stock prices moved sharply higher. Wednesday’s “buy-the-fact” rally, however,
was short lived as investors re-examined the potential consequence of tighter monetary policy going
forward, pushing markets lower and furthering the rotation from tech/growth stocks into value
stocks. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate also moved lower on the week, mainly due to falling
inflation expectations in light of more aggressive Fed tightening. For the week, the S&P 500 Index
decreased 1.9% to 4,620.64, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 2.9% to 15,169.68, the Dow Jones
Industrial Average decreased 1.7% to 35,366.56, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 7bps to 1.41%
and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.5%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 17 Dec 2021
20 December, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock prices moved lower with all 3 major stock indexes decreasing every day last week except
for Wednesday. Tech stocks sharply underperformed last week as evidenced by the Nasdaq
Composite Index which fell almost twice as much as the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Uncertainty
surrounding the outcome of the 2-day FOMC meeting ending Wednesday, exacerbated by Tuesday’s
record high PPI release, and concerns regarding the increase in the number of Omicron infections,
pushed markets 1% to 1.5% lower through Tuesday. Following Wednesday’s FOMC announcement
that the rate of tapering would be doubled along with a dot-plot projection of three 25bp rate
increases in 2022, stock prices moved sharply higher. Wednesday’s “buy-the-fact” rally, however,
was short lived as investors re-examined the potential consequence of tighter monetary policy going
forward, pushing markets lower and furthering the rotation from tech/growth stocks into value
stocks. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate also moved lower on the week, mainly due to falling
inflation expectations in light of more aggressive Fed tightening. For the week, the S&P 500 Index
decreased 1.9% to 4,620.64, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 2.9% to 15,169.68, the Dow Jones
Industrial Average decreased 1.7% to 35,366.56, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 7bps to 1.41%
and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.5%.
Another volatile week for U.S. stock markets with uncertainty surrounding the Omicron Covid
variant and a potentially more aggressive Fed knee-jerking stock prices lower throughout the week.
Monday’s sharp rebound from the previous Friday’s selloff was short-lived with re-emerging
Omicron fears compounded by Fed Chairman Powell’s hawkish testimony before Congress on
Tuesday. Acknowledging current inflation could no longer be described as “transitory” and positing
the pace of tapering could be increased, Chairman Powell’s comments drove stock prices
significantly lower Tuesday. Comments from Moderna’s CEO questioning the effectiveness of
current vaccines against the Omicron variant added to Covid-related concerns. Wednesday’s report
of the U.S’s first Omicron case drove stock markets lower once again though all of Wednesday’s
losses were recouped Thursday as investors re-examined Covid-related concerns. Friday’s NonFarm Payroll report, showing a meager gain of 211,000 jobs but also a reporting a lower
unemployment rate (combined with an increase in the labor participation rate), seemed to increase
investor uncertainty with stock markets again ending sharply lower on the day. The 10-year U.S
Treasury rate moved lockstep with stock markets, increasing when stock prices increased and falling
when prices fell, reflecting the view a more aggressive Fed would act to slow growth resulting in
lower rates and stock prices. Also of note was the Nasdaq Composite Index fared the worst last
week, seemingly reflecting greater investor concern of slower growth due to faster Fed tightening
than to Omicron. For the week, the S&P 500 Index decreased 1.2% to 4,538.43, the Nasdaq
Composite Index fell 2.6% to 15,085.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.9% to
34,579.55, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate decreased 12bps to 1.36% and the U.S. dollar (as
measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened less than 0.1%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 03 Dec 2021
07 December, 2021 | GraniteShares
Another volatile week for U.S. stock markets with uncertainty surrounding the Omicron Covid
variant and a potentially more aggressive Fed knee-jerking stock prices lower throughout the week.
Monday’s sharp rebound from the previous Friday’s selloff was short-lived with re-emerging
Omicron fears compounded by Fed Chairman Powell’s hawkish testimony before Congress on
Tuesday. Acknowledging current inflation could no longer be described as “transitory” and positing
the pace of tapering could be increased, Chairman Powell’s comments drove stock prices
significantly lower Tuesday. Comments from Moderna’s CEO questioning the effectiveness of
current vaccines against the Omicron variant added to Covid-related concerns. Wednesday’s report
of the U.S’s first Omicron case drove stock markets lower once again though all of Wednesday’s
losses were recouped Thursday as investors re-examined Covid-related concerns. Friday’s NonFarm Payroll report, showing a meager gain of 211,000 jobs but also a reporting a lower
unemployment rate (combined with an increase in the labor participation rate), seemed to increase
investor uncertainty with stock markets again ending sharply lower on the day. The 10-year U.S
Treasury rate moved lockstep with stock markets, increasing when stock prices increased and falling
when prices fell, reflecting the view a more aggressive Fed would act to slow growth resulting in
lower rates and stock prices. Also of note was the Nasdaq Composite Index fared the worst last
week, seemingly reflecting greater investor concern of slower growth due to faster Fed tightening
than to Omicron. For the week, the S&P 500 Index decreased 1.2% to 4,538.43, the Nasdaq
Composite Index fell 2.6% to 15,085.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.9% to
34,579.55, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate decreased 12bps to 1.36% and the U.S. dollar (as
measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened less than 0.1%.
An eventful, holiday-shortened trading week with concerns of a more aggressive Fed quickly and
suddenly laid to the side as fears of a more contagious South African Covid strain dominated
markets Friday. Fed Chairman Powell’s renomination Monday, an over 50-year low in jobless claims,
unexpectedly strong home sales, hawkish comments from Fed Governors and FOMC minutes
expressing inflation concerns increased expectations the Fed may tighten monetary policy more
aggressively, advancing its timetable for raising rates. As a result, 10-year U.S. Treasury rates moved
10bps higher and the Nasdaq Composite Index – the most sensitive to rising interest rates – fell
1.3%, both through Wednesday (the S&P 500 Index was unchanged and the Dow Jones Industrial
Average was up ½ percent through Wednesday. News of a potentially more infectious Covid strain,
originating from South Africa, drastically increased Covid-related lockdown concerns, driving stock
markets and interest rates significantly lower with all 3 major indexes falling near 2.5% and the 10-
year U.S Treasury rate dropping 16bps from Wednesday’s closing levels. Interestingly, the U.S.
dollar, stronger by almost 1% through Wednesday, weakened significantly Friday to end the week
almost unchanged. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index decreased 2.2% to 4,594.62, the Nasdaq
Composite Index fell 3.5% to 15,491.70, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 2.0% to
34,908.10, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate decreased 7bps to 1.48% and the U.S. dollar (as measured
by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened less than 0.1%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 26 Nov 2021
30 November, 2021 | GraniteShares
An eventful, holiday-shortened trading week with concerns of a more aggressive Fed quickly and
suddenly laid to the side as fears of a more contagious South African Covid strain dominated
markets Friday. Fed Chairman Powell’s renomination Monday, an over 50-year low in jobless claims,
unexpectedly strong home sales, hawkish comments from Fed Governors and FOMC minutes
expressing inflation concerns increased expectations the Fed may tighten monetary policy more
aggressively, advancing its timetable for raising rates. As a result, 10-year U.S. Treasury rates moved
10bps higher and the Nasdaq Composite Index – the most sensitive to rising interest rates – fell
1.3%, both through Wednesday (the S&P 500 Index was unchanged and the Dow Jones Industrial
Average was up ½ percent through Wednesday. News of a potentially more infectious Covid strain,
originating from South Africa, drastically increased Covid-related lockdown concerns, driving stock
markets and interest rates significantly lower with all 3 major indexes falling near 2.5% and the 10-
year U.S Treasury rate dropping 16bps from Wednesday’s closing levels. Interestingly, the U.S.
dollar, stronger by almost 1% through Wednesday, weakened significantly Friday to end the week
almost unchanged. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index decreased 2.2% to 4,594.62, the Nasdaq
Composite Index fell 3.5% to 15,491.70, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 2.0% to
34,908.10, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate decreased 7bps to 1.48% and the U.S. dollar (as measured
by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened less than 0.1%.
Divergence in the major stock indexes last week with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes
increasing and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling. A better-than-expected retail sales release
and strong earnings reports moved markets higher through Tuesday though re-emerging fears of
inflation and a more aggressive Fed pressured markets lower on Wednesday. The 10-year U.S.
Treasury rate behaved oppositely, increasing 7bps through Tuesday and then falling almost 6bps
Wednesday with increasing expectations of a more aggressive Fed precipitating slower economic
growth. Rising Covid cases in Europe and Austria’s lockdown announcement increased concerns of
slowing global economic growth and raised the possibility of rising Covid cases in the U.S. These
concerns pushed the Nasdaq Composite Index higher (stay-at-home stocks benefiting), the Dow
Jones Industrial Average lower (lockdown-free stocks hurt) and strengthened the U.S. dollar
(because of its appeal as a safe-haven investment and because of likely continued easy-money
policies in Europe in the face of renewed lockdowns). At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index increased
0.3% to 4,697.96, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.2% to 16,057.40, the Dow Jones Industrial
Average fell 1.4% to 35,602.18, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate decreased 2bps to 1.55% and the U.S.
dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.9%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 19 Nov 2021
23 November, 2021 | GraniteShares
Divergence in the major stock indexes last week with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes
increasing and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling. A better-than-expected retail sales release
and strong earnings reports moved markets higher through Tuesday though re-emerging fears of
inflation and a more aggressive Fed pressured markets lower on Wednesday. The 10-year U.S.
Treasury rate behaved oppositely, increasing 7bps through Tuesday and then falling almost 6bps
Wednesday with increasing expectations of a more aggressive Fed precipitating slower economic
growth. Rising Covid cases in Europe and Austria’s lockdown announcement increased concerns of
slowing global economic growth and raised the possibility of rising Covid cases in the U.S. These
concerns pushed the Nasdaq Composite Index higher (stay-at-home stocks benefiting), the Dow
Jones Industrial Average lower (lockdown-free stocks hurt) and strengthened the U.S. dollar
(because of its appeal as a safe-haven investment and because of likely continued easy-money
policies in Europe in the face of renewed lockdowns). At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index increased
0.3% to 4,697.96, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.2% to 16,057.40, the Dow Jones Industrial
Average fell 1.4% to 35,602.18, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate decreased 2bps to 1.55% and the U.S.
dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.9%.
Monday saw all three major stock indexes close at record highs supported by Congress’ passage of
the $1+ trillion infrastructure package and continuing the previous week’s strong performance. An
as-expected-but-high PPI release Tuesday pushed markets lower with renewed concerns the Fed
may find it necessary to tighten monetary policy more aggressively. These concerns were increased
with Wednesday’s much higher-than-expected CPI release, pushing stock prices lower and lifting 10-
year U.S. Treasury rates 13bps higher. Stock markets moved higher the remainder of the week,
supported by strong earnings releases and as investors, assisted by a sharply lower consumer
sentiment reading, seemingly reduced their concerns of a more aggressive Fed. At week’s end, the
S&P 500 Index decreased 0.3% to 4,682.85, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.7% to 15,861.00, the
Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.6% to 36,100.37, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased
12bps to 1.57% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened
0.8%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 12 Nov 2021
16 November, 2021 | GraniteShares
Monday saw all three major stock indexes close at record highs supported by Congress’ passage of
the $1+ trillion infrastructure package and continuing the previous week’s strong performance. An
as-expected-but-high PPI release Tuesday pushed markets lower with renewed concerns the Fed
may find it necessary to tighten monetary policy more aggressively. These concerns were increased
with Wednesday’s much higher-than-expected CPI release, pushing stock prices lower and lifting 10-
year U.S. Treasury rates 13bps higher. Stock markets moved higher the remainder of the week,
supported by strong earnings releases and as investors, assisted by a sharply lower consumer
sentiment reading, seemingly reduced their concerns of a more aggressive Fed. At week’s end, the
S&P 500 Index decreased 0.3% to 4,682.85, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.7% to 15,861.00, the
Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.6% to 36,100.37, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased
12bps to 1.57% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened
0.8%.
U.S. stock markets powered higher again last week with all 3 major indexes setting record highs.
While strong earnings and economic reports helped move stock markets higher, Wednesday’s FOMC
announcement also contributed to this week’s increase. The Fed, as expected, announced it would
begin reducing its $120 billion/month bond buyback program by $15 billion/month beginning this
month (subject to changes if needed) but also indicated the timing of rate increases was uncertain
given the Fed’s view its full-employment goals have not been reached, increasing sentiment the Fed
would maintain its easy-money policies longer than expected. Friday’s October Non-Farm Payroll
report, stronger than expected with respect to jobs and the unemployment rate, seemingly had
little effect on markets with investor uncertainty regarding the strength of future job gains and an
unchanged labour participation rate overriding the headline strength of the report. The 10-year U.S.
Treasury rate, reflecting this sentiment, ended the week 11bps lower with almost all the decrease
coming from falling 10-year real rates (down 8bps over the week). The U.S. dollar, stronger on the
week, rose on the back of Thursday’s BoE announcement leaving rates unchanged. At week’s end,
the S&P 500 Index rose 2.0% to 4,697.53, the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 3.0% to 15,971.60,
the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.4% to 36,329.07, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell
11bps to 1.45% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened
0.2%
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 05 Nov 2021
09 November, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets powered higher again last week with all 3 major indexes setting record highs.
While strong earnings and economic reports helped move stock markets higher, Wednesday’s FOMC
announcement also contributed to this week’s increase. The Fed, as expected, announced it would
begin reducing its $120 billion/month bond buyback program by $15 billion/month beginning this
month (subject to changes if needed) but also indicated the timing of rate increases was uncertain
given the Fed’s view its full-employment goals have not been reached, increasing sentiment the Fed
would maintain its easy-money policies longer than expected. Friday’s October Non-Farm Payroll
report, stronger than expected with respect to jobs and the unemployment rate, seemingly had
little effect on markets with investor uncertainty regarding the strength of future job gains and an
unchanged labour participation rate overriding the headline strength of the report. The 10-year U.S.
Treasury rate, reflecting this sentiment, ended the week 11bps lower with almost all the decrease
coming from falling 10-year real rates (down 8bps over the week). The U.S. dollar, stronger on the
week, rose on the back of Thursday’s BoE announcement leaving rates unchanged. At week’s end,
the S&P 500 Index rose 2.0% to 4,697.53, the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 3.0% to 15,971.60,
the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.4% to 36,329.07, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell
11bps to 1.45% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened
0.2%
Another strong week for U.S. stock markets with all three major indexes posting record levels.
Strong earnings reports again were the primary factor moving markets higher despite disappointing
Apple and Amazon earning releases and a weaker-than-expected increase in GDP. All three major
stock indexes moved higher almost every day last week, only pausing Wednesday. Thursday’s
weaker-than-expected GDP release (along with Apple’s and Amazon’s disappointing earnings
reports) and Friday’s as-expected PCE price index release highlighted concerns surrounding
persistently high inflation caused by input/labor shortages and production and shipping bottlenecks
and slowing economic activity. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates fell 8bps over the week, perhaps
reflecting the growing conviction the Fed will begin moderately tightening monetary policy resulting
in slowing economic growth. The U.S dollar, weaker by 0.3% through Thursday, strengthened over
0.8% Friday following the release of the Employment Cost Index and Personal Income and Outlays
reports, perhaps reflecting the same conviction. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index climbed 1.3% to
4,605.38, the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 2.7% to 15,498.40, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
increased 0.4% to 35,819.59, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 8bps to 1.56% and the U.S. dollar (as
measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.5%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 29 Oct 2021
01 November, 2021 | GraniteShares
Another strong week for U.S. stock markets with all three major indexes posting record levels.
Strong earnings reports again were the primary factor moving markets higher despite disappointing
Apple and Amazon earning releases and a weaker-than-expected increase in GDP. All three major
stock indexes moved higher almost every day last week, only pausing Wednesday. Thursday’s
weaker-than-expected GDP release (along with Apple’s and Amazon’s disappointing earnings
reports) and Friday’s as-expected PCE price index release highlighted concerns surrounding
persistently high inflation caused by input/labor shortages and production and shipping bottlenecks
and slowing economic activity. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates fell 8bps over the week, perhaps
reflecting the growing conviction the Fed will begin moderately tightening monetary policy resulting
in slowing economic growth. The U.S dollar, weaker by 0.3% through Thursday, strengthened over
0.8% Friday following the release of the Employment Cost Index and Personal Income and Outlays
reports, perhaps reflecting the same conviction. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index climbed 1.3% to
4,605.38, the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 2.7% to 15,498.40, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
increased 0.4% to 35,819.59, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 8bps to 1.56% and the U.S. dollar (as
measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.5%.
U.S. stock markets moved higher last week with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at a record
high and the S&P 500 Index finishing slightly off its record high set Thursday. Strong earnings
reports were the primary driver behind last week’s gains, overcoming concerns of lower profits due
to rising input and labour costs and production and shipping bottlenecks. Lower-than-expected
jobless claims, reported Thursday, also helped move markets higher. Three notable earnings misses
– Intel, Snap and IBM – helped push the Nasdaq Composite Index and the S&P 500 Index lower
Friday though analysts mostly considered these misses as outliers either because they were
considered exceptions (IBM) or because of the unique, specific nature of the misses (Snap, Intel).
Better-than-expected earnings reports, however, did not alleviate concerns of persistent inflation,
driving the 10-year U.S.Treasury rate 12bps higher through Thursday. The rate fell almost 6bps
Friday, likely reacting to weaker-than-expected earnings reports. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index
rose 1.6% to 4,544.90, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 1.3% to 15,090.20, the Dow Jones
Industrial Average gained 1.1% to 35,677.02, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 7bps to 1.64% and
the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.3%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 22 Oct 2021
26 October, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets moved higher last week with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at a record
high and the S&P 500 Index finishing slightly off its record high set Thursday. Strong earnings
reports were the primary driver behind last week’s gains, overcoming concerns of lower profits due
to rising input and labour costs and production and shipping bottlenecks. Lower-than-expected
jobless claims, reported Thursday, also helped move markets higher. Three notable earnings misses
– Intel, Snap and IBM – helped push the Nasdaq Composite Index and the S&P 500 Index lower
Friday though analysts mostly considered these misses as outliers either because they were
considered exceptions (IBM) or because of the unique, specific nature of the misses (Snap, Intel).
Better-than-expected earnings reports, however, did not alleviate concerns of persistent inflation,
driving the 10-year U.S.Treasury rate 12bps higher through Thursday. The rate fell almost 6bps
Friday, likely reacting to weaker-than-expected earnings reports. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index
rose 1.6% to 4,544.90, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 1.3% to 15,090.20, the Dow Jones
Industrial Average gained 1.1% to 35,677.02, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 7bps to 1.64% and
the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.3%.
U.S. stock markets moved lower early last week pressured by inflation concerns arising from surging
oil prices and continued shipping and production bottlenecks as well as by the advent of 3rd quarter
earnings reports (the IMF’s lower global growth forecast Tuesday also pressured markets). Down
close to 1% through Tuesday, U.S stock markets rallied the remainder of the week powered by
better-than-expected bank earnings and stronger-than-expected retail sales and jobless claims. A
record high CPI release Wednesday, while increasing expectations of Fed tapering sooner than later
(confirmed by the FOMC minutes released Wednesday), seemingly had little effect on markets.
Thursday’s lower-than-expected PPI release may have eased those expectations perhaps helping U.S
stock markets to power 1.5% to 1.7% higher. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate, reacting conversely to
Fed tapering expectations, fell 10bps through Thursday but rose 6bps Friday to finish the week
lower by 4bps. Interestingly the U.S dollar (as measured by the DXY Index), stronger by ½ percent
through Tuesday, weakened almost ½ percent Wednesday and finished the week lower by 0.1%.
For the week, the S&P 500 Index rose 1.8% to 4,471.37, the Nasdaq Composite Index jumped 2.2%
to 14,897.30, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.6% to 35,295.48, the 10-year U.S. Treasury
rate fell 4bps to 1.57% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened
0.1%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 15 Oct 2021
19 October, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets moved lower early last week pressured by inflation concerns arising from surging
oil prices and continued shipping and production bottlenecks as well as by the advent of 3rd quarter
earnings reports (the IMF’s lower global growth forecast Tuesday also pressured markets). Down
close to 1% through Tuesday, U.S stock markets rallied the remainder of the week powered by
better-than-expected bank earnings and stronger-than-expected retail sales and jobless claims. A
record high CPI release Wednesday, while increasing expectations of Fed tapering sooner than later
(confirmed by the FOMC minutes released Wednesday), seemingly had little effect on markets.
Thursday’s lower-than-expected PPI release may have eased those expectations perhaps helping U.S
stock markets to power 1.5% to 1.7% higher. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate, reacting conversely to
Fed tapering expectations, fell 10bps through Thursday but rose 6bps Friday to finish the week
lower by 4bps. Interestingly the U.S dollar (as measured by the DXY Index), stronger by ½ percent
through Tuesday, weakened almost ½ percent Wednesday and finished the week lower by 0.1%.
For the week, the S&P 500 Index rose 1.8% to 4,471.37, the Nasdaq Composite Index jumped 2.2%
to 14,897.30, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.6% to 35,295.48, the 10-year U.S. Treasury
rate fell 4bps to 1.57% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened
0.1%.
A bumpy start last week with major U.S. stock indexes falling sharply and with the Nasdaq
Composite Index faring the worst by far. Increasing inflation and Fed-tapering concerns, spurred by
Friday’s PCE price index release, combined with a debt-ceiling overhang, pushed 10-year U.S.
Treasury rates higher and stock prices – especially tech stock prices – lower (Facebook’s
unprecedented outage Monday also affected the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index). Stock
markets rebounded sharply Tuesday and then continued higher through Thursday buoyed by a
better-than-expected ISM services index release, falling weekly and continued jobless claims and
substantive progress on a short-term debt ceiling extension. Friday’s much weaker-than-expected
payroll report moved stock markets slightly lower while at the same time pulling the 10-year U.S.
Treasury rate above 1.6%. For the week, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.8% to 4,392.36, the Nasdaq
Composite Index increased 0.1% to 14,579.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.2% to
34,746.71, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate jumped 15bp to 1.61% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by
the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) was practically unchanged.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 08 Oct 2021
11 October, 2021 | GraniteShares
A bumpy start last week with major U.S. stock indexes falling sharply and with the Nasdaq
Composite Index faring the worst by far. Increasing inflation and Fed-tapering concerns, spurred by
Friday’s PCE price index release, combined with a debt-ceiling overhang, pushed 10-year U.S.
Treasury rates higher and stock prices – especially tech stock prices – lower (Facebook’s
unprecedented outage Monday also affected the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index). Stock
markets rebounded sharply Tuesday and then continued higher through Thursday buoyed by a
better-than-expected ISM services index release, falling weekly and continued jobless claims and
substantive progress on a short-term debt ceiling extension. Friday’s much weaker-than-expected
payroll report moved stock markets slightly lower while at the same time pulling the 10-year U.S.
Treasury rate above 1.6%. For the week, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.8% to 4,392.36, the Nasdaq
Composite Index increased 0.1% to 14,579.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.2% to
34,746.71, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate jumped 15bp to 1.61% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by
the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) was practically unchanged.
Concerns of central bank tightening and growing inflation concerns precipitated steep declines in
U.S. stock markets with all three major U.S. stock indexes falling 3% or more through Thursday. Fed
Chairman Powell’s prepared remarks before Congress on Tuesday reiterated remarks made after the
most recent FOMC meeting, saying the Fed could begin tapering in November and that higher
inflation could last longer than initially anticipated before moderating toward the Fed’s 2% goal,
uneased stock and bond markets with the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increasing over 9bps through
Tuesday, and U.S. stock markets dropping between 1.5% and 3%. Debt ceiling and government
shutdown concerns and President Biden’s $3.5 trillion spending bill also unnerved markets with
Congress at a debt-ceiling impasse leading to warnings of default and credit rating downgrades.
Stock markets rebounded Friday with investor risk-on appetite apparently returning with Congress
approving a stopgap, government-funding bill and as the U.S dollar fell from its almost 1-year high
and the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate finished the week only slightly higher. The PCE price index,
released Friday, increased an as-expected 3.5%, perhaps helping to reduce inflation concerns. For
the week, the S&P 500 Index fell 2.2% to 4,357.05, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 3.2% to
14,566.70, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 1.4% to 34,327.45, the 10-year U.S. Treasury
rate increased 1bp to 1.46% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY)
strengthened 0.8% percent.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 01 Oct 2021
05 October, 2021 | GraniteShares
Concerns of central bank tightening and growing inflation concerns precipitated steep declines in
U.S. stock markets with all three major U.S. stock indexes falling 3% or more through Thursday. Fed
Chairman Powell’s prepared remarks before Congress on Tuesday reiterated remarks made after the
most recent FOMC meeting, saying the Fed could begin tapering in November and that higher
inflation could last longer than initially anticipated before moderating toward the Fed’s 2% goal,
uneased stock and bond markets with the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increasing over 9bps through
Tuesday, and U.S. stock markets dropping between 1.5% and 3%. Debt ceiling and government
shutdown concerns and President Biden’s $3.5 trillion spending bill also unnerved markets with
Congress at a debt-ceiling impasse leading to warnings of default and credit rating downgrades.
Stock markets rebounded Friday with investor risk-on appetite apparently returning with Congress
approving a stopgap, government-funding bill and as the U.S dollar fell from its almost 1-year high
and the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate finished the week only slightly higher. The PCE price index,
released Friday, increased an as-expected 3.5%, perhaps helping to reduce inflation concerns. For
the week, the S&P 500 Index fell 2.2% to 4,357.05, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 3.2% to
14,566.70, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 1.4% to 34,327.45, the 10-year U.S. Treasury
rate increased 1bp to 1.46% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY)
strengthened 0.8% percent.
U.S. stock markets began the week on uneasy terms with Evergrande contagion concerns and FOMC
announcement anxiety pushing all three major indexes about 2% lower. U.S stock markets,
stagnating on Tuesday, moved higher the rest of the week, fortified by a somewhat-as-exprected
FOMC announcement and optimism Evergrande would avoid immediate default. Wednesday’s
FOMC announcement indicated the Fed would likely begin tapering November (with bond buybacks
to be eliminated by June next year) with at least one rate hike in 2022 followed by another 2-3 hikes
in 2023. The Fed’s willingness to slightly and gradually tighten its ultra-easy monetary policy
signalled it believed the U.S. economy was strong and at the same time eased investor concerns of
possible fallout from Fed inaction. Interestingly, the 10-year U.S Treasury rate, down 6bps through
Wednesday, jumped 13bps higher Thursday and another 2bp Friday perhaps as a delayed reaction
to the FOMC announcement and perhaps as a result of lessened Evergrande contagion fears. For the
week, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.5% to 4,455.48, the Nasdaq Composite Index was almost unchanged
at 15,047.70, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.6% to 34,797.60, the 10-year U.S.
Treasury rate increased 9bps to 1.45% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index -
DXY) strengthened 0.1% percent.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 24 Sep 2021
27 September, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets began the week on uneasy terms with Evergrande contagion concerns and FOMC
announcement anxiety pushing all three major indexes about 2% lower. U.S stock markets,
stagnating on Tuesday, moved higher the rest of the week, fortified by a somewhat-as-exprected
FOMC announcement and optimism Evergrande would avoid immediate default. Wednesday’s
FOMC announcement indicated the Fed would likely begin tapering November (with bond buybacks
to be eliminated by June next year) with at least one rate hike in 2022 followed by another 2-3 hikes
in 2023. The Fed’s willingness to slightly and gradually tighten its ultra-easy monetary policy
signalled it believed the U.S. economy was strong and at the same time eased investor concerns of
possible fallout from Fed inaction. Interestingly, the 10-year U.S Treasury rate, down 6bps through
Wednesday, jumped 13bps higher Thursday and another 2bp Friday perhaps as a delayed reaction
to the FOMC announcement and perhaps as a result of lessened Evergrande contagion fears. For the
week, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.5% to 4,455.48, the Nasdaq Composite Index was almost unchanged
at 15,047.70, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.6% to 34,797.60, the 10-year U.S.
Treasury rate increased 9bps to 1.45% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index -
DXY) strengthened 0.1% percent.
Another volatile week for U.S. stock markets with conflicting economic data adding uncertainty in
the face of this week’s FOMC meeting. President Biden’s tax-hike plan, weakening Chinese growth,
continued Covid concerns, a slightly lower-than-expected increase in CPI and much stronger-thanforecasted retail sales left markets unsettled and increased uncertaintly regarding possible Fed
actions at the 2-day FOMC meeting beginning Tuesday this week. All three major U.S. indexes, up
around 0.4% through Thursday, ended the week in the red after falling between ½ and 1 percent on
Friday. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates reflected this uncertainty, too, falling 6bps through Tuesday
(following the CPI release) and then increasing 8bps the remainder of the week. Similary, the DXY
Dollar Index, unchanged through Wednesday, strengthened almost ¾ percent over Thursday and
Friday. For the week, the S&P 500 Index fell -0.6% to 4,432.99, the Nasdaq Composite Index
dropped 0.5% to 15,044.00, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1% to 34,584.88, the 10-year
U.S. Treasury rate increased 2bps to 1.36% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar
index - DXY) strengthened 0.7% percent.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 17 Sep 2021
21 September, 2021 | GraniteShares
Another volatile week for U.S. stock markets with conflicting economic data adding uncertainty in
the face of this week’s FOMC meeting. President Biden’s tax-hike plan, weakening Chinese growth,
continued Covid concerns, a slightly lower-than-expected increase in CPI and much stronger-thanforecasted retail sales left markets unsettled and increased uncertaintly regarding possible Fed
actions at the 2-day FOMC meeting beginning Tuesday this week. All three major U.S. indexes, up
around 0.4% through Thursday, ended the week in the red after falling between ½ and 1 percent on
Friday. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates reflected this uncertainty, too, falling 6bps through Tuesday
(following the CPI release) and then increasing 8bps the remainder of the week. Similary, the DXY
Dollar Index, unchanged through Wednesday, strengthened almost ¾ percent over Thursday and
Friday. For the week, the S&P 500 Index fell -0.6% to 4,432.99, the Nasdaq Composite Index
dropped 0.5% to 15,044.00, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1% to 34,584.88, the 10-year
U.S. Treasury rate increased 2bps to 1.36% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar
index - DXY) strengthened 0.7% percent.
All three major U.S. stock market indexes finished lower last week, falling over 1.5% and with the
Dow Jones Industrial Average performing the worst. Fallout from the previous week’s
disappointing non-farm payroll report and the ending of supplemental unemployment benefits (in
the remaining 25 states that still provide them) weighed on stock prices with increasing concerns of
slowing U.S. economic growth. Concerns of slowing growth have increased doubts whether the Fed
will begin tapering before year end while at the same time inflation continues to increase at
historically high levels (Friday’s PPI release showed producer prices increased the most in its
history). The confluence of increased expectations of weaker growth, surging inflation and a Fed
potentially unwilling or unable to tighten monetary policy in the near future has added to investor
uncertainty resulting in weaker stock markets. Concerns regarding congressional debt ceiling and
budget negotiations also weighed on markets. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index fell 1.7% to
4,458.58, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 1.6% to 15,115.5, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
fell 2.2% to 34,607.46, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 1bps to 1.34% and the U.S. dollar
(as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.7% percent.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 10 Sep 2021
13 September, 2021 | GraniteShares
All three major U.S. stock market indexes finished lower last week, falling over 1.5% and with the
Dow Jones Industrial Average performing the worst. Fallout from the previous week’s
disappointing non-farm payroll report and the ending of supplemental unemployment benefits (in
the remaining 25 states that still provide them) weighed on stock prices with increasing concerns of
slowing U.S. economic growth. Concerns of slowing growth have increased doubts whether the Fed
will begin tapering before year end while at the same time inflation continues to increase at
historically high levels (Friday’s PPI release showed producer prices increased the most in its
history). The confluence of increased expectations of weaker growth, surging inflation and a Fed
potentially unwilling or unable to tighten monetary policy in the near future has added to investor
uncertainty resulting in weaker stock markets. Concerns regarding congressional debt ceiling and
budget negotiations also weighed on markets. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index fell 1.7% to
4,458.58, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 1.6% to 15,115.5, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
fell 2.2% to 34,607.46, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 1bps to 1.34% and the U.S. dollar
(as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.7% percent.
U.S. stock markets were mainly higher last week with the Nasdaq Composite Index closing at record
levels and the S&P 500 Index closing just below record highs but with the Dow Jones Industrial
Average finishing lower on the week. Growth stocks performed better than value stocks, buoyed by
disappointing payroll reports and flagging consumer confidence – both attributed to Delta variant-related concerns and restrictions. Wednesday’s much weaker-than-expected ADP payroll report
was substantiated by Friday’s much weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll report with
markets overall reacting to the “bad news” as “good news” believing weak economic data would
forestall the Fed from tightening monetary policy anytime soon. The 10-year U.S. Treasury reacted
oppositely, increasing 4bps after the release of U.S. non-farm payroll report perhaps reflecting
inflation concerns given the likelihood of the Fed to continue with its ultra-accommodative
monetary policy and the U.S. dollar weakened, seemingly reflecting those same concerns. For the
week, the S&P 500 Index increased 0.6% to 4,535.43, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.6% to
15,363.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2% to 35,369.35, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate
increased 2bps to 1.33% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY)
weakened 0.7% percent.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 03 Sep 2021
07 September, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets were mainly higher last week with the Nasdaq Composite Index closing at record
levels and the S&P 500 Index closing just below record highs but with the Dow Jones Industrial
Average finishing lower on the week. Growth stocks performed better than value stocks, buoyed by
disappointing payroll reports and flagging consumer confidence – both attributed to Delta variant-related concerns and restrictions. Wednesday’s much weaker-than-expected ADP payroll report
was substantiated by Friday’s much weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll report with
markets overall reacting to the “bad news” as “good news” believing weak economic data would
forestall the Fed from tightening monetary policy anytime soon. The 10-year U.S. Treasury reacted
oppositely, increasing 4bps after the release of U.S. non-farm payroll report perhaps reflecting
inflation concerns given the likelihood of the Fed to continue with its ultra-accommodative
monetary policy and the U.S. dollar weakened, seemingly reflecting those same concerns. For the
week, the S&P 500 Index increased 0.6% to 4,535.43, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.6% to
15,363.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2% to 35,369.35, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate
increased 2bps to 1.33% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY)
weakened 0.7% percent.
U.S. stock markets moved higher last week buoyed by strong earnings reports, as- or better-thanexpected economic data and by temperate comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. All three
major U.S. stock indexes rose every day but Thursday last week, faltering on Thursday in anticipation
of Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech Friday morning and on news of the Kabul airport attack.
Both the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at record highs. Fed
Chairman Jerome Powell’s prepared remarks on Friday confirmed the Fed wanted to begin tapering
its Treasury note and mortgage-backed bond buyback program before year end but also qualified
those comments with a need for careful and moderate implementation citing concerns of
“temporary fluctuations in inflation”. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate finished the week higher but
well off its Thursday’s high of 1.36%, falling over 4bps after Jerome Powell’s comments. Similarly,
the U.S. dollar, weaker by ½ percent through Thursday, weakened almost another ½ percent Friday.
For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 1.5% to 4,509.37, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.8%
to 15,129.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.0% closing at 35,454.81, the 10-year U.S.
Treasury rate increased 5bps to 1.31% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index
- DXY) weakened 0.9% percent.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 27 Aug 2021
30 August, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets moved higher last week buoyed by strong earnings reports, as- or better-thanexpected economic data and by temperate comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. All three
major U.S. stock indexes rose every day but Thursday last week, faltering on Thursday in anticipation
of Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech Friday morning and on news of the Kabul airport attack.
Both the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at record highs. Fed
Chairman Jerome Powell’s prepared remarks on Friday confirmed the Fed wanted to begin tapering
its Treasury note and mortgage-backed bond buyback program before year end but also qualified
those comments with a need for careful and moderate implementation citing concerns of
“temporary fluctuations in inflation”. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate finished the week higher but
well off its Thursday’s high of 1.36%, falling over 4bps after Jerome Powell’s comments. Similarly,
the U.S. dollar, weaker by ½ percent through Thursday, weakened almost another ½ percent Friday.
For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 1.5% to 4,509.37, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.8%
to 15,129.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.0% closing at 35,454.81, the 10-year U.S.
Treasury rate increased 5bps to 1.31% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index
- DXY) weakened 0.9% percent.
Slowing U.S and Chinese growth fears, Afghanistan-related geopolitical and Delta variant concerns
and Fed minutes increasing expectations the Fed may taper asset purchases before the end of this
year pushed U.S. stock markets lower last week. All three major stock indexes moved higher Friday,
gaining between ¾ percent and over 1 percent, buoyed by strong earnings reports and amid
investor re-thinking of Fed taper timing. The U.S. dollar strengthened over 1 percent while the 10-
year U.S. Treasury rate fell 4bps, perhaps reflecting expectations the Fed will tighten monetary
policy sooner than later resulting in slower economic growth going forward. For the week, the S&P
500 Index decreased 0.6% to 4,441.67, the Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 0.7% to 14,714.66,
the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.1% to 35,120.08, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate decreased
4bps to 1.26% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened
1.1% percent.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
The Long and Short of it, week ending 20 Aug 2021
23 August, 2021 | GraniteShares
Slowing U.S and Chinese growth fears, Afghanistan-related geopolitical and Delta variant concerns
and Fed minutes increasing expectations the Fed may taper asset purchases before the end of this
year pushed U.S. stock markets lower last week. All three major stock indexes moved higher Friday,
gaining between ¾ percent and over 1 percent, buoyed by strong earnings reports and amid
investor re-thinking of Fed taper timing. The U.S. dollar strengthened over 1 percent while the 10-
year U.S. Treasury rate fell 4bps, perhaps reflecting expectations the Fed will tighten monetary
policy sooner than later resulting in slower economic growth going forward. For the week, the S&P
500 Index decreased 0.6% to 4,441.67, the Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 0.7% to 14,714.66,
the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.1% to 35,120.08, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate decreased
4bps to 1.26% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened
1.1% percent.
U.S. stock markets moved higher again last week with both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and
the S&P 500 Index posting another set of record highs. Senate passage of a $1 trillion infrastructure
bill Tuesday and Wednesday’s CPI release showing high YoY gains but slowing MoM gains helped
move stock prices higher. Markets all but ignored Thursday’s record high PPI release and Friday’s
much lower-than-expected consumer sentiment reading with all three major indexes moving higher
the last two days of the week. The U.S. dollar, stronger through Thursday, weakened substantially
Friday following the much lower-than-expected Michigan University consumer sentiment release.
U.S. 10-year Treasury rates performed similarly, falling 7bps Friday after being up 8bps through
Thursday. For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 0.7% to 4,468.00, the Nasdaq Composite Index
decreased 0.1% to 14,822.90, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9% to 35,515.38, the 10-year
U.S. Treasury rate increased 1bps to 1.30% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar
index - DXY) weakened 0.3% percent.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 13 Aug 2021
16 August, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets moved higher again last week with both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and
the S&P 500 Index posting another set of record highs. Senate passage of a $1 trillion infrastructure
bill Tuesday and Wednesday’s CPI release showing high YoY gains but slowing MoM gains helped
move stock prices higher. Markets all but ignored Thursday’s record high PPI release and Friday’s
much lower-than-expected consumer sentiment reading with all three major indexes moving higher
the last two days of the week. The U.S. dollar, stronger through Thursday, weakened substantially
Friday following the much lower-than-expected Michigan University consumer sentiment release.
U.S. 10-year Treasury rates performed similarly, falling 7bps Friday after being up 8bps through
Thursday. For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 0.7% to 4,468.00, the Nasdaq Composite Index
decreased 0.1% to 14,822.90, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9% to 35,515.38, the 10-year
U.S. Treasury rate increased 1bps to 1.30% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar
index - DXY) weakened 0.3% percent.
A volatile week for U.S. stock markets with stock prices pushed and pulled by strong earnings and
economic reports on the one hand and the Delta variant and “peak” economy concerns on the
other. Still, all three major U.S. stock indexes ended higher on the week with both the Dow Jones
Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index setting new highs. As-expected jobless claims with
declining continuing claims, strong service purchasing manager index releases and a much betterthan-expected non-farm payroll report supported stock prices while growing Covid infections, a
weak ADP report and peak-growth concerns restrained price gains. The U.S. dollar strengthened
and the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose, both reacting mainly to the non-farm payroll report,
recouping most or all of their previous week’s losses. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index increased
0.9% to 4,436.52, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.1% to 14,835.76, the Dow Jones Industrial
Average increased 0.8% to 35,208.51, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 5bps to 1.29% and
the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.7% percent.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 06 Aug 2021
09 August, 2021 | GraniteShares
A volatile week for U.S. stock markets with stock prices pushed and pulled by strong earnings and
economic reports on the one hand and the Delta variant and “peak” economy concerns on the
other. Still, all three major U.S. stock indexes ended higher on the week with both the Dow Jones
Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index setting new highs. As-expected jobless claims with
declining continuing claims, strong service purchasing manager index releases and a much betterthan-expected non-farm payroll report supported stock prices while growing Covid infections, a
weak ADP report and peak-growth concerns restrained price gains. The U.S. dollar strengthened
and the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose, both reacting mainly to the non-farm payroll report,
recouping most or all of their previous week’s losses. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index increased
0.9% to 4,436.52, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.1% to 14,835.76, the Dow Jones Industrial
Average increased 0.8% to 35,208.51, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 5bps to 1.29% and
the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.7% percent.
U.S. stock markets fell last week reacting to a myriad of inputs including GDP and PCE releases, the
FOMC announcement and earnings reprots. Markets struggled despite strong tech-company
earnings reports Monday and Tuesday from Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple and Tesla with investors
cautious before the FOMC announcement and the release of the first-estimate of Q2 GDP.
Wednesday’s FOMC announcement, reporting no changes to monetary policy and slightly upgrading
the assessment of the U.S. economy saying economic activity had strengthened and improved but
not fully recovered, had little effect on stock prices. A worse-than-expected GDP release Thursday
actually supported stock prices with all three major indexes ending the day higher. The first
estimate of Q2 GDP growth came in at 6.5% economic growth versus expectations of 8.4%. The
lower-than-expected number was attributed to production and transportation bottlenecks and to
labor constraints. Friday’s higher-than-expected core PCE release and Amazon’s weaker-thanexpected earnings report and slowing sales growth guidance pushed U.S. stock markets ½ to ¾
percent lower on the day. The U.S. dollar weakened significantly over the week, influenced by the
combination of the Fed’s no-action mantra and growing inflation concerns. At week’s end, the S&P
500 Index decreased 0.4% to 4,395.26, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.1% to 14,672.68, the Dow
Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.4% to 34,935.47, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 5bps to
1.24% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.8% percent.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 30 July 2021
02 August, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets fell last week reacting to a myriad of inputs including GDP and PCE releases, the
FOMC announcement and earnings reprots. Markets struggled despite strong tech-company
earnings reports Monday and Tuesday from Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple and Tesla with investors
cautious before the FOMC announcement and the release of the first-estimate of Q2 GDP.
Wednesday’s FOMC announcement, reporting no changes to monetary policy and slightly upgrading
the assessment of the U.S. economy saying economic activity had strengthened and improved but
not fully recovered, had little effect on stock prices. A worse-than-expected GDP release Thursday
actually supported stock prices with all three major indexes ending the day higher. The first
estimate of Q2 GDP growth came in at 6.5% economic growth versus expectations of 8.4%. The
lower-than-expected number was attributed to production and transportation bottlenecks and to
labor constraints. Friday’s higher-than-expected core PCE release and Amazon’s weaker-thanexpected earnings report and slowing sales growth guidance pushed U.S. stock markets ½ to ¾
percent lower on the day. The U.S. dollar weakened significantly over the week, influenced by the
combination of the Fed’s no-action mantra and growing inflation concerns. At week’s end, the S&P
500 Index decreased 0.4% to 4,395.26, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.1% to 14,672.68, the Dow
Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.4% to 34,935.47, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 5bps to
1.24% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.8% percent.
Rocked by fears of a Covid-19 resurgence, driven by the spread of the Delta variant, U.S. stock
markets declined sharply Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial average falling over 2% and the 10-
year U.S. Treasury rate, reflecting investor flight to quality, fell 12bps to 1.18%. Markets,
however, rebounded strongly Tuesday and continued to recover the remainder of the week with
receding Covid fears and strong earnings reports. All three major U.S. stock indexes finished the
week at record highs and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 35,000 for the first time.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rebounded as well, rising to almost unchanged on the week. At
week’s end, the S&P 500 Index increased 2.0% to 4,411.79, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.8%
to 14,836.99, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.1% to 35,061.55, the 10-year U.S. Treasury
rate fell 1bps to 1.29% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY)
strengthened 0.2% percent
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 23 July 2021
26 July, 2021 | GraniteShares
Rocked by fears of a Covid-19 resurgence, driven by the spread of the Delta variant, U.S. stock
markets declined sharply Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial average falling over 2% and the 10-
year U.S. Treasury rate, reflecting investor flight to quality, fell 12bps to 1.18%. Markets,
however, rebounded strongly Tuesday and continued to recover the remainder of the week with
receding Covid fears and strong earnings reports. All three major U.S. stock indexes finished the
week at record highs and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 35,000 for the first time.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rebounded as well, rising to almost unchanged on the week. At
week’s end, the S&P 500 Index increased 2.0% to 4,411.79, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.8%
to 14,836.99, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.1% to 35,061.55, the 10-year U.S. Treasury
rate fell 1bps to 1.29% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY)
strengthened 0.2% percent
U.S. stock markets ended the week lower pressured by increasing concerns of fallout from rising inflation and of climbing Delta-variant Covid-19 infections. Tuesday’s CPI and Wednesday’s PPI releases surprised markets coming in at much higher-than-expected levels but intially had little effect on stock market levels while mixed earnings reports seemed to cap market increases. Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony before congress held true to the Fed’s ongoing message that rising inflation was transient, the economy, while growing, had further room for improvement and that interest rates would remain near zero for the foreseeable future. Friday’s lower-than-expected consumer sentiment report and China’s slightly lower-than-expected Q2 GDP growth tipped markets over the edge with all three major U.S. stock markets falling around ¾ percent. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 6bps over the week, driven by growing expectations the Fed would need to raise rates sooner than later resulting in slower economic growth and, as a result, lower longer-term rates. The U.S. dollar strengthened last week, reflecting similar views. For the week, the S&P 500 Index decreased 1.0% to 4,327.16, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.9% to 14,427.24, the Dow
Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.5% to 34,897.02, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 6bps to 1.30% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.6% percent.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 16 July 2021
20 July, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets ended the week lower pressured by increasing concerns of fallout from rising inflation and of climbing Delta-variant Covid-19 infections. Tuesday’s CPI and Wednesday’s PPI releases surprised markets coming in at much higher-than-expected levels but intially had little effect on stock market levels while mixed earnings reports seemed to cap market increases. Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony before congress held true to the Fed’s ongoing message that rising inflation was transient, the economy, while growing, had further room for improvement and that interest rates would remain near zero for the foreseeable future. Friday’s lower-than-expected consumer sentiment report and China’s slightly lower-than-expected Q2 GDP growth tipped markets over the edge with all three major U.S. stock markets falling around ¾ percent. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 6bps over the week, driven by growing expectations the Fed would need to raise rates sooner than later resulting in slower economic growth and, as a result, lower longer-term rates. The U.S. dollar strengthened last week, reflecting similar views. For the week, the S&P 500 Index decreased 1.0% to 4,327.16, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.9% to 14,427.24, the Dow
Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.5% to 34,897.02, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 6bps to 1.30% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.6% percent.
Despite an up-and-down week for U.S. stock markets, all three major U.S. stock indexes once again
reached record highs. Increasing concerns regarding the spread of the Delta Covid-19 variant and
the resulting effect on economic growth as well as larger-than-expected jobless claims drove both
U.S stock markets and the U.S. 10-year Treasury rate lower through Thursday. The S&P 500 Index,
for example was down almost ¾ percent through Thursday while the 10-year U.S Treasury rate was
14bps lower. Stock markets rallied strongly and 10-year U.S. Treasury rates rose Friday on no real
news but perhaps as coronavirus fears retreated and possibly as a result of the ECB’s decision to
raise their inflation target while maintaining their current historically accommodative monetary
policy At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index increased 0.4% to 4,369.55, the Nasdaq Composite Index
rose 0.4% to 14,701.92, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.2% to 34,870.16, the 10-year U.S.
Treasury rate fell 7bps to 1.36% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY)
weakened 0.1% percent.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 12 July 2021
13 July, 2021 | GraniteShares
Despite an up-and-down week for U.S. stock markets, all three major U.S. stock indexes once again
reached record highs. Increasing concerns regarding the spread of the Delta Covid-19 variant and
the resulting effect on economic growth as well as larger-than-expected jobless claims drove both
U.S stock markets and the U.S. 10-year Treasury rate lower through Thursday. The S&P 500 Index,
for example was down almost ¾ percent through Thursday while the 10-year U.S Treasury rate was
14bps lower. Stock markets rallied strongly and 10-year U.S. Treasury rates rose Friday on no real
news but perhaps as coronavirus fears retreated and possibly as a result of the ECB’s decision to
raise their inflation target while maintaining their current historically accommodative monetary
policy At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index increased 0.4% to 4,369.55, the Nasdaq Composite Index
rose 0.4% to 14,701.92, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.2% to 34,870.16, the 10-year U.S.
Treasury rate fell 7bps to 1.36% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY)
weakened 0.1% percent.
U.S stock markets rallied to all-time highs with all three major stock indexes reaching record levels.
Strong economic data as represented by Friday’s mostly better-than-expected payroll report,
Thursday’s post-pandemic low in jobless claims, climbing consumer confidence and surging home
prices combined to push stock markets higher. Also helping stock prices was President Biden’s
announcement he would sign the almost $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill if it reached his
desk. Ten-year U.S. Treasury rates fell 11bps last week pushed lower by diminished inflation
concerns (the payroll report showed decreasing wages) and increasing expectations the Fed would
not need to raise rates sooner than later. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index increased 1.7% to
4,352.34, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.9% to 14,639.33, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
gained 1.0% to 34,786.35, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 11bps to 1.43% and the U.S. dollar (as
measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.5% percent.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 2 July 2021
07 July, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S stock markets rallied to all-time highs with all three major stock indexes reaching record levels.
Strong economic data as represented by Friday’s mostly better-than-expected payroll report,
Thursday’s post-pandemic low in jobless claims, climbing consumer confidence and surging home
prices combined to push stock markets higher. Also helping stock prices was President Biden’s
announcement he would sign the almost $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill if it reached his
desk. Ten-year U.S. Treasury rates fell 11bps last week pushed lower by diminished inflation
concerns (the payroll report showed decreasing wages) and increasing expectations the Fed would
not need to raise rates sooner than later. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index increased 1.7% to
4,352.34, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.9% to 14,639.33, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
gained 1.0% to 34,786.35, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 11bps to 1.43% and the U.S. dollar (as
measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.5% percent.
U.S. stock markets rebounded strongly from the previous week’s downturn with the S&P 500 Index
closing at record highs and the Nasdaq Composite Index closing slightly lower than the record highs
it set Friday. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony Tuesday insisting current high levels of
inflation would be temporary added to NY Fed President John Williams’ comments Monday
asserting the current state of the economy did not warrant a change in Fed policy, pushed all three
major stock indexes 1.5% to 2% higher through Tuesday. President Biden’s announcement of a
bipartisan infrastructure agreement moved markets higher Thursday and Friday, with a record YoY
increase in PCE having little effect on stock prices. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates increased 9bps
reversing last week’s declines reflecting strong economic growth with resulting inflationary
pressures. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index increased 2.7% to 4,280.70, the Nasdaq Composite
Index rose 2.4% to 14,360.39, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.4% to 34,433.84, the 10-
year U.S. Treasury rate rose 9bps to 1.54% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar
index - DXY) weakened 0.5% percent.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 25 June 2021
29 June, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets rebounded strongly from the previous week’s downturn with the S&P 500 Index
closing at record highs and the Nasdaq Composite Index closing slightly lower than the record highs
it set Friday. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony Tuesday insisting current high levels of
inflation would be temporary added to NY Fed President John Williams’ comments Monday
asserting the current state of the economy did not warrant a change in Fed policy, pushed all three
major stock indexes 1.5% to 2% higher through Tuesday. President Biden’s announcement of a
bipartisan infrastructure agreement moved markets higher Thursday and Friday, with a record YoY
increase in PCE having little effect on stock prices. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates increased 9bps
reversing last week’s declines reflecting strong economic growth with resulting inflationary
pressures. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index increased 2.7% to 4,280.70, the Nasdaq Composite
Index rose 2.4% to 14,360.39, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.4% to 34,433.84, the 10-
year U.S. Treasury rate rose 9bps to 1.54% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar
index - DXY) weakened 0.5% percent.
U.S. stock markets reacted negatively to the FOMC announcement Wednesday afternoon, with all three major indexes ending lower on the week. Monday, however, saw both the S&P 500 and
Nasdaq Composite Indexes reach record highs with these levels gradually deteriorating into
Wednesday’s announcement. The big news from the Fed was its shift forward in the timing of expected rate increases (on the heels of a record YoY PPI release Tuesday) as well as an increase in its inflation expectations. Interestingly, the Fed gave no guidance regarding its buyback program.
Markets rebounded on Thursday but then sold off sharply Friday after St. Louis Fed President Jim
Bullard opined that the first rate increase would occur in 2022. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fared the worst, falling each day of the week. The Treasury yield curve flattened, with 10-year U.S.
Treasury rates declining slightly and 2-year U.S. Treasury rates rising 10bps, reflecting increased expectations of rate increases along with growing concerns of slowing economic growth. In addition,
the U.S. dollar sharply strengthened. For the week, the S&P 500 decreased 1.9% to 4,166.45, the
Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.3% to 14,030.38, the Dow Jones industrial average dropped 3.5% to
33,290.08, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 1bps to 1.45% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the
ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 1.8% percent.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 18 June 2021
21 June, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets reacted negatively to the FOMC announcement Wednesday afternoon, with all three major indexes ending lower on the week. Monday, however, saw both the S&P 500 and
Nasdaq Composite Indexes reach record highs with these levels gradually deteriorating into
Wednesday’s announcement. The big news from the Fed was its shift forward in the timing of expected rate increases (on the heels of a record YoY PPI release Tuesday) as well as an increase in its inflation expectations. Interestingly, the Fed gave no guidance regarding its buyback program.
Markets rebounded on Thursday but then sold off sharply Friday after St. Louis Fed President Jim
Bullard opined that the first rate increase would occur in 2022. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fared the worst, falling each day of the week. The Treasury yield curve flattened, with 10-year U.S.
Treasury rates declining slightly and 2-year U.S. Treasury rates rising 10bps, reflecting increased expectations of rate increases along with growing concerns of slowing economic growth. In addition,
the U.S. dollar sharply strengthened. For the week, the S&P 500 decreased 1.9% to 4,166.45, the
Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.3% to 14,030.38, the Dow Jones industrial average dropped 3.5% to
33,290.08, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 1bps to 1.45% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the
ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 1.8% percent.
U.S stock markets moved lower prior to Thursday’s CPI release, reflecting the possibility the Fed may
need to scale back its easy-money policies sooner than later. Despite CPI coming in above
expectations, jumping 5% YoY and 0.6% MoM, stock prices generally moved higher with the S&P 500
Index hitting a record high and the Nasdaq Composite Index increasing 0.8%. Stock prices
continued their move higher on Friday, though the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week
lower while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes moved higher. Interestingly, 10-year U.S.
Treasury rates moved lower throughout the week, falling 8bps before the CPI release. For the week,
the S&P 500 Index increased 0.4% to 4,247.44, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 1.9% to
14,069.42, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.8% to 34,479.6, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate
fell 10bps to 1.46% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY)
strengthened ½ percent
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 11 June 2021
14 June, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S stock markets moved lower prior to Thursday’s CPI release, reflecting the possibility the Fed may
need to scale back its easy-money policies sooner than later. Despite CPI coming in above
expectations, jumping 5% YoY and 0.6% MoM, stock prices generally moved higher with the S&P 500
Index hitting a record high and the Nasdaq Composite Index increasing 0.8%. Stock prices
continued their move higher on Friday, though the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week
lower while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes moved higher. Interestingly, 10-year U.S.
Treasury rates moved lower throughout the week, falling 8bps before the CPI release. For the week,
the S&P 500 Index increased 0.4% to 4,247.44, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 1.9% to
14,069.42, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.8% to 34,479.6, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate
fell 10bps to 1.46% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY)
strengthened ½ percent
U.S. stock markets moved higher again last week with gains mainly coming Friday on a holiday-shortened trading week. Thursday’s better-than-expected jobless claims and President Biden’s
retraction of his proposed corporate tax hike increased expectations of strong economic growth,
higher inflation and, as a result, increased concerns the Fed may act sooner than later to pare its
accommodative monetary policy, pushing all three major stock indexes lower. Those losses,
however, were recouped Friday following a payroll report showing good but below-expectations job
growth and an unchanged labor participation rate. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates were little changed
on the week but experienced increased volatility moving higher one day and then lower the next
throughout the week. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index increased 0.6% to 4,229.89, the Nasdaq
Composite Index increased 0.5% to 13,814.49, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7% to
34,756.39, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 2bps to 1.56% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the
ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.1%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 4 June 2021
07 June, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets moved higher again last week with gains mainly coming Friday on a holiday-shortened trading week. Thursday’s better-than-expected jobless claims and President Biden’s
retraction of his proposed corporate tax hike increased expectations of strong economic growth,
higher inflation and, as a result, increased concerns the Fed may act sooner than later to pare its
accommodative monetary policy, pushing all three major stock indexes lower. Those losses,
however, were recouped Friday following a payroll report showing good but below-expectations job
growth and an unchanged labor participation rate. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates were little changed
on the week but experienced increased volatility moving higher one day and then lower the next
throughout the week. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index increased 0.6% to 4,229.89, the Nasdaq
Composite Index increased 0.5% to 13,814.49, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7% to
34,756.39, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 2bps to 1.56% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the
ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.1%.
All three major indexes moved higher last week, downplaying inflation concerns and instead
focusing on continued post-Covid economic growth. An as-expected GDP release, soaring house
prices and a historically high PCE release had little negative effect on stock markets and actually
resulted in 10-year U.S. Treasury rates falling 5bps on the week. President Biden’s $6 trillion budget
proposal released Friday also had little effect on markets. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index
increased 1.2% to 4,204.11, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 2.1% to 13,748.74, the Dow
Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9% to 34,529.45, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 5bps to 1.58%
and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) was unchanged.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 28 May 2021
01 June, 2021 | GraniteShares
All three major indexes moved higher last week, downplaying inflation concerns and instead
focusing on continued post-Covid economic growth. An as-expected GDP release, soaring house
prices and a historically high PCE release had little negative effect on stock markets and actually
resulted in 10-year U.S. Treasury rates falling 5bps on the week. President Biden’s $6 trillion budget
proposal released Friday also had little effect on markets. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index
increased 1.2% to 4,204.11, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 2.1% to 13,748.74, the Dow
Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9% to 34,529.45, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 5bps to 1.58%
and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) was unchanged.
U.S stock markets struggled last week with growing inflation concerns unsettling investors and pressuring stock prices lower. FOMC minutes, released Wednesday, revealed some members thought it may be necessary in the near future to discuss scaling back asset purchases, adding to concerns the Fed may act to reduce its accommodative monetary policy sooner than expected. Increased cryptocurrency volatility also added to stock markets’ malaise contributing to investor concerns regarding asset valuations vis a vis a less accommodative Fed. Thursday’s post-pandemic low jobless claims release supported stock prices pushing the S&P 500 Index up 1% and the Nasdaq
Composite Index higher by just under 2%. Friday’s much better-than-expected PMI Composite Flash seemingly had little effect on markets. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate, up 4bps through Wednesday, closed the week unchanged. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index decreased 0.4% to 4,155.86, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 0.3% to 13,470.99, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5% to 34,207.84, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate was unchanged at 1.63% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.3%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 21 May 2021
25 May, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S stock markets struggled last week with growing inflation concerns unsettling investors and pressuring stock prices lower. FOMC minutes, released Wednesday, revealed some members thought it may be necessary in the near future to discuss scaling back asset purchases, adding to concerns the Fed may act to reduce its accommodative monetary policy sooner than expected. Increased cryptocurrency volatility also added to stock markets’ malaise contributing to investor concerns regarding asset valuations vis a vis a less accommodative Fed. Thursday’s post-pandemic low jobless claims release supported stock prices pushing the S&P 500 Index up 1% and the Nasdaq
Composite Index higher by just under 2%. Friday’s much better-than-expected PMI Composite Flash seemingly had little effect on markets. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate, up 4bps through Wednesday, closed the week unchanged. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index decreased 0.4% to 4,155.86, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 0.3% to 13,470.99, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5% to 34,207.84, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate was unchanged at 1.63% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.3%.
A tale of two halves last week with stock markets selling off steeply through Wednesday and then rallying strongly Thursday and Friday to finish the week lower but well off of Wednesday’s lows. Rotation from growth to value stocks continued early last week as investors continued to be concerned about growth stock valuations in the face of inflation and increasing interest rates. Wednesday’s much greater-than-expected CPI release pushed both growth and value stocks lower with growing expectations the Fed would act to scale back its massive accommodative monetary policy sooner than later. A lower-than-expected jobless claims number and the CDC advising that those fully vaccinated no longer need to wear masks in most situations helped push stock markets significantly higher. The increase came despite a much greater-than-expected increase in the PPI release. Inflation concerns again were ameliorated by the Fed, stating inflation increases will be transitory and that more data would be needed to cause changes in policy. The 10-year U.S. rate rose to almost 1.7% following the CPI release but moved lower the remainder of the week. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index decreased 1.4% to 4,173.85, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 2.3% to 13,429.98, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 1.1% to 34,832.13, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 6bps to 1.64% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.1%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 14 May 2021
17 May, 2021 | GraniteShares
A tale of two halves last week with stock markets selling off steeply through Wednesday and then rallying strongly Thursday and Friday to finish the week lower but well off of Wednesday’s lows. Rotation from growth to value stocks continued early last week as investors continued to be concerned about growth stock valuations in the face of inflation and increasing interest rates. Wednesday’s much greater-than-expected CPI release pushed both growth and value stocks lower with growing expectations the Fed would act to scale back its massive accommodative monetary policy sooner than later. A lower-than-expected jobless claims number and the CDC advising that those fully vaccinated no longer need to wear masks in most situations helped push stock markets significantly higher. The increase came despite a much greater-than-expected increase in the PPI release. Inflation concerns again were ameliorated by the Fed, stating inflation increases will be transitory and that more data would be needed to cause changes in policy. The 10-year U.S. rate rose to almost 1.7% following the CPI release but moved lower the remainder of the week. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index decreased 1.4% to 4,173.85, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 2.3% to 13,429.98, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 1.1% to 34,832.13, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 6bps to 1.64% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.1%.
Analysis of industry data by ETF provider GraniteShares reveals that 16 FTSE 100 companies have annual dividend yields – these are based on the current share price and the total dividends declared in the previous 12 months - of 0%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Investment Cases , Investments
Poor Dividend Yields in FTSE 100 & 250: Analysis
13 May, 2021 | GraniteShares
Analysis of industry data by ETF provider GraniteShares reveals that 16 FTSE 100 companies have annual dividend yields – these are based on the current share price and the total dividends declared in the previous 12 months - of 0%.
The value versus growth trade continued last week with both the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ending the week at record highs while the Nasdaq Composite Index finished the week lower. Strong earnings reports, continued expectations of a strong post-pandemic economic recovery along with growing inflation concerns - exacerbated by Treasury Secretary Yellen’s comments on Tuesday and emphasized by Monday’s ISM Manufacturing Index release - helped push cyclical stock prices higher while hindering tech stock prices last week. Friday’s much weaker-thanexpected payroll report had limited negative effect on stock prices with some analysts attributing the weakness to labor shortages resulting from high unemployment benefits and a dearth of childcare facilities (benefiting value stocks) while others believed the weak report showed a need for continued fiscal and monetary stimulus (benefiting growth stocks). For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 1.2% to 4,232.60, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.7% to 34,777.76, the Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 1.5% to 13,752.24, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 5bps to 1.58% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 1.2%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 07 May 2021
10 May, 2021 | GraniteShares
The value versus growth trade continued last week with both the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ending the week at record highs while the Nasdaq Composite Index finished the week lower. Strong earnings reports, continued expectations of a strong post-pandemic economic recovery along with growing inflation concerns - exacerbated by Treasury Secretary Yellen’s comments on Tuesday and emphasized by Monday’s ISM Manufacturing Index release - helped push cyclical stock prices higher while hindering tech stock prices last week. Friday’s much weaker-thanexpected payroll report had limited negative effect on stock prices with some analysts attributing the weakness to labor shortages resulting from high unemployment benefits and a dearth of childcare facilities (benefiting value stocks) while others believed the weak report showed a need for continued fiscal and monetary stimulus (benefiting growth stocks). For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 1.2% to 4,232.60, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.7% to 34,777.76, the Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 1.5% to 13,752.24, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 5bps to 1.58% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 1.2%.
A volatile week for US stock markets buffeted by concerns of potential upside from last week’s highs, President Biden’s seeking to raise capital gains tax rates and increased Covid-19 infections in Asia on the one hand and strong economic reports, decent earnings releases and continued optimism regarding global post-pandemic growth on the other. US stock markets fell sharply Monday and Tuesday on no real news but coming off record highs from the previous week. Betterthan-expected earnings reports moved markets higher on Wednesday only to see those gains reversed Thursday following President Biden’s announcement of his plan to raise capital gains tax rates and to work to sharply lower emissions over the next few years and despite lower-thanexpected jobless claims. Markets bounced back Friday following much stronger-than-expected new home sales and decreased concerns over the possible effects of higher capital gains tax rates. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index decreased 0.1% to 4,180.17, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.5% to 34,043.49, the Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 0.3% to 14,016.81, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate was unchanged at 1.57% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.8%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 23 Apr 2021
26 April, 2021 | GraniteShares
A volatile week for US stock markets buffeted by concerns of potential upside from last week’s highs, President Biden’s seeking to raise capital gains tax rates and increased Covid-19 infections in Asia on the one hand and strong economic reports, decent earnings releases and continued optimism regarding global post-pandemic growth on the other. US stock markets fell sharply Monday and Tuesday on no real news but coming off record highs from the previous week. Betterthan-expected earnings reports moved markets higher on Wednesday only to see those gains reversed Thursday following President Biden’s announcement of his plan to raise capital gains tax rates and to work to sharply lower emissions over the next few years and despite lower-thanexpected jobless claims. Markets bounced back Friday following much stronger-than-expected new home sales and decreased concerns over the possible effects of higher capital gains tax rates. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index decreased 0.1% to 4,180.17, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.5% to 34,043.49, the Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 0.3% to 14,016.81, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate was unchanged at 1.57% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.8%.
The FDA suspension of J&J’s vaccine and uncertainty regarding earnings releases left U.S. stock markets directionless and slightly lower through Wednesday last week. Very strong bank earnings reports, lower-than-expected jobless claims and much stronger-than-expected retail sales and housing starts and permits powered U.S. stock markets higher with both the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching new highs. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates fell 9bps on the week boistered by strong auction demand for U.S. Treasury notes and despite stronger-than-expected economic data and Fed Chair Powell’s comments the Fed would likely scale back bond purchases well before increasing rates. For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 1.4% to 4,185.47, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.2% to 34,200.67, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 1.1% to 14,052.34, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 9bp to 1.57% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.7%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 16 Apr 2021
20 April, 2021 | GraniteShares
The FDA suspension of J&J’s vaccine and uncertainty regarding earnings releases left U.S. stock markets directionless and slightly lower through Wednesday last week. Very strong bank earnings reports, lower-than-expected jobless claims and much stronger-than-expected retail sales and housing starts and permits powered U.S. stock markets higher with both the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching new highs. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates fell 9bps on the week boistered by strong auction demand for U.S. Treasury notes and despite stronger-than-expected economic data and Fed Chair Powell’s comments the Fed would likely scale back bond purchases well before increasing rates. For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 1.4% to 4,185.47, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.2% to 34,200.67, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 1.1% to 14,052.34, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 9bp to 1.57% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.7%.
U.S. stock markets moved higher last week, powered by a stronger-than-expected payroll report (released the previous Friday while markets were closed), FOMC minutes affirming the Fed’s continued accommodative approach and a much better-than-expected ISM Non-Manufacturing Index release. Both the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at record highs while the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed out of correction territory. A higher-than expected PPI release had limited effect on longer-term interest rates and helped pushed stock markets higher on Friday. For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 2.7% to 4,128.80, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.0% to 33,800.60, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 3.1% to 13,900.19, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 1bp to 1.67% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.8%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 09 Apr 2021
13 April, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets moved higher last week, powered by a stronger-than-expected payroll report (released the previous Friday while markets were closed), FOMC minutes affirming the Fed’s continued accommodative approach and a much better-than-expected ISM Non-Manufacturing Index release. Both the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at record highs while the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed out of correction territory. A higher-than expected PPI release had limited effect on longer-term interest rates and helped pushed stock markets higher on Friday. For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 2.7% to 4,128.80, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.0% to 33,800.60, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 3.1% to 13,900.19, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 1bp to 1.67% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.8%.
Another volatile week, this time with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Indexes ending higher and closing the week at record highs. The Nasdaq Composite Index, down almost 2% through Thursday, finished the week down 0.6%. Higher Monday on easing longer-term U.S. Treasury rates, U.S. stock markets dropped Tuesday and Wednesday following Treasury Secretary Yellen’s and Fed Chair Powell’s testimony before Congress, a much weaker-than-expected durable goods report and on global growth concerns spurred by renewed restrictions in Europe. Treasury Secretary Yellen’s comments suggesting the need for higher taxes and Fed Chair Powell’s caution regarding the pace of economic
recovery may have helped move markets lower Tuesday and Wednesday. Lower-than-expected jobless claims, a revision higher to 4th quarter GDP and perhaps recovering oil prices moved stocks higher on Thursday and Friday, with major indexes rallying into the close on both days. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates, lower by 11bps through Wednesday, moved higher by almost 7bps the remainder of the week with most of that increase occurring Friday. For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 1.6% to 3,974.54, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.4% to 33,072.88, the Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 0.6% to 13,138.74, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate decreased 4bps to 1.69% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.9%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 26 Mar 2021
30 March, 2021 | GraniteShares
Another volatile week, this time with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Indexes ending higher and closing the week at record highs. The Nasdaq Composite Index, down almost 2% through Thursday, finished the week down 0.6%. Higher Monday on easing longer-term U.S. Treasury rates, U.S. stock markets dropped Tuesday and Wednesday following Treasury Secretary Yellen’s and Fed Chair Powell’s testimony before Congress, a much weaker-than-expected durable goods report and on global growth concerns spurred by renewed restrictions in Europe. Treasury Secretary Yellen’s comments suggesting the need for higher taxes and Fed Chair Powell’s caution regarding the pace of economic
recovery may have helped move markets lower Tuesday and Wednesday. Lower-than-expected jobless claims, a revision higher to 4th quarter GDP and perhaps recovering oil prices moved stocks higher on Thursday and Friday, with major indexes rallying into the close on both days. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates, lower by 11bps through Wednesday, moved higher by almost 7bps the remainder of the week with most of that increase occurring Friday. For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 1.6% to 3,974.54, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.4% to 33,072.88, the Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 0.6% to 13,138.74, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate decreased 4bps to 1.69% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.9%.
A somewhat volatile week for with U.S. stock markets reacting to Wednesday’s FOMC announcement and Chairman Powell’s comments and then to rising longer-term U.S. Treasury rates. Higher through Wednesday with all three major U.S. stock indexes reacting positively to the Fed’s decision to continue unchanged its accommodative monetary policy (ie, zero Fed Funds rate and no change to its Treasury and mortgage-backed securities buyback program), markets reversed course on Thursday as 10-year U.S. Treasury rates rose above 1.7%, a level not seen since before the pandemic. The Nasdaq Composite Index fared the worst, falling 3% on Thursday while the S&P 500 Index decreased 1.5% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost less than ½ percent. The U.S. dollar also experienced some volatility weakening ½ percent after the FOMC announcement and then strengthening ½ percent after the rise in longer-term Treasury rates on Thursday. At week’s end the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 0.8% to 3,913.10 and 13,215.24, respectively, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5% to 36,267.97, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rateincreased 10bps to 1.73% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.3%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 19 Mar 2021
23 March, 2021 | GraniteShares
A somewhat volatile week for with U.S. stock markets reacting to Wednesday’s FOMC announcement and Chairman Powell’s comments and then to rising longer-term U.S. Treasury rates. Higher through Wednesday with all three major U.S. stock indexes reacting positively to the Fed’s decision to continue unchanged its accommodative monetary policy (ie, zero Fed Funds rate and no change to its Treasury and mortgage-backed securities buyback program), markets reversed course on Thursday as 10-year U.S. Treasury rates rose above 1.7%, a level not seen since before the pandemic. The Nasdaq Composite Index fared the worst, falling 3% on Thursday while the S&P 500 Index decreased 1.5% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost less than ½ percent. The U.S. dollar also experienced some volatility weakening ½ percent after the FOMC announcement and then strengthening ½ percent after the rise in longer-term Treasury rates on Thursday. At week’s end the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 0.8% to 3,913.10 and 13,215.24, respectively, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5% to 36,267.97, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rateincreased 10bps to 1.73% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.3%.
U.S stock markets moved higher last week with the Dow Jones Industrial average continuing to outperform the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes. Declining U.S. Treasury rates, a muted CPI release, lower-than-expected jobless claims, increasing consumer sentiment and passage and signing into law of the $1.9 trillion stimulus package all worked to move stock prices higher. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates jumped 9bps higher Friday to close over 1.63% causing some retracement of gains in the Nasdaq Compositie Index while the Dow Jones Industrial Average moved oppositely, gaining almost 1% and the S&P 500 Index was almost unchanged (the increase in rates may be partly attributable to increasing “risk-on” sentiment causing yields to rise and the U.S. dollar to weaken). At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 2.6% to 3,943.34, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 3.1% to 13,319.86, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 4.1% to 32,778.64, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 6bps to 1.63% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.3%
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 12 Mar 2021
16 March, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S stock markets moved higher last week with the Dow Jones Industrial average continuing to outperform the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes. Declining U.S. Treasury rates, a muted CPI release, lower-than-expected jobless claims, increasing consumer sentiment and passage and signing into law of the $1.9 trillion stimulus package all worked to move stock prices higher. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates jumped 9bps higher Friday to close over 1.63% causing some retracement of gains in the Nasdaq Compositie Index while the Dow Jones Industrial Average moved oppositely, gaining almost 1% and the S&P 500 Index was almost unchanged (the increase in rates may be partly attributable to increasing “risk-on” sentiment causing yields to rise and the U.S. dollar to weaken). At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 2.6% to 3,943.34, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 3.1% to 13,319.86, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 4.1% to 32,778.64, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 6bps to 1.63% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.3%
Another volatile week for U.S. equity markets as investors struggled with strong economic data, decreasing Covid-19 infections, increasing vaccinations and rising interest rates. Tech stocks continued to fare the worst, suffering most from concerns over rising rates, with the Nasdaq Composite Index decreasing last week while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Indexes increased. House passage of the $1.9 trillion stimulus package, approval of J&J’s Covid-19 vaccination and stable 10-year Treasury rates powered all three indexes 2% to 3% higher on Monday only to see those gains swept away by increased uncertainty and concerns from a resumption of rising longer-term U.S. Treasury rates spurred by stronger-than-exepected economic reports and status-quo comments by Fed Chairman Powell. All three indexes rallied on Friday after initially falling as 10-year Treasury rates spiked then fell to unchanged on the day following the much betterthan-expected release of the Employment Situation report. The U.S. dollar strengthened
last week, reflecting continued market uncertainty with stock market levels. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 0.8% to 3,841.94 the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 2.1% to 12,920.15, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.8% to 31,496.30, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 15bps to 1.57% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 1.2%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 05 Mar 2021
07 March, 2021 | GraniteShares
Another volatile week for U.S. equity markets as investors struggled with strong economic data, decreasing Covid-19 infections, increasing vaccinations and rising interest rates. Tech stocks continued to fare the worst, suffering most from concerns over rising rates, with the Nasdaq Composite Index decreasing last week while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Indexes increased. House passage of the $1.9 trillion stimulus package, approval of J&J’s Covid-19 vaccination and stable 10-year Treasury rates powered all three indexes 2% to 3% higher on Monday only to see those gains swept away by increased uncertainty and concerns from a resumption of rising longer-term U.S. Treasury rates spurred by stronger-than-exepected economic reports and status-quo comments by Fed Chairman Powell. All three indexes rallied on Friday after initially falling as 10-year Treasury rates spiked then fell to unchanged on the day following the much betterthan-expected release of the Employment Situation report. The U.S. dollar strengthened
last week, reflecting continued market uncertainty with stock market levels. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 0.8% to 3,841.94 the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 2.1% to 12,920.15, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.8% to 31,496.30, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 15bps to 1.57% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 1.2%.
U.S. stock markets moved higher once again last week with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes again reaching record highs. Stock markets were buoyed by increasing expectations of passage of a $1.9 trillion stimulus package, strong corporate earnings reports, a rallying energy sector propelled by higher oil prices and positive news regarding vaccine availability. Fed Chairman Powell’s comments on Wednesday stating the economy was still struggling and in need of more than accomodative monetary policy helped weaken the U.S. dollar and push 10-year U.S. Treasury rates higher. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.2% to 3,934.83, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.7% to 14,095.47, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 4bps to 1.21% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.6%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 12 Feb 2021
16 February, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets moved higher once again last week with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes again reaching record highs. Stock markets were buoyed by increasing expectations of passage of a $1.9 trillion stimulus package, strong corporate earnings reports, a rallying energy sector propelled by higher oil prices and positive news regarding vaccine availability. Fed Chairman Powell’s comments on Wednesday stating the economy was still struggling and in need of more than accomodative monetary policy helped weaken the U.S. dollar and push 10-year U.S. Treasury rates higher. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.2% to 3,934.83, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.7% to 14,095.47, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 4bps to 1.21% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.6%.
U.S. stock markets moved higher last week with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes reaching new record highs. Steps taken by the Democratic controlled House and Senate set the stage for passage of a $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package were the primary reasons for last week’s gains. Strong earnings reports in tech and energy and material stocks and a slightly better than-expected employment situation report also helped move stock markets higher. Increased expectations of the passage of the $1.9 trillion stimulus package also acted to move 10-year Treasury rates higher and helped subdue the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 4.7% to 3,886.83, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 6.0% to 13,856.30, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 11bps to 1.17% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.5%
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 05 Feb 2021
09 February, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets moved higher last week with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes reaching new record highs. Steps taken by the Democratic controlled House and Senate set the stage for passage of a $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package were the primary reasons for last week’s gains. Strong earnings reports in tech and energy and material stocks and a slightly better than-expected employment situation report also helped move stock markets higher. Increased expectations of the passage of the $1.9 trillion stimulus package also acted to move 10-year Treasury rates higher and helped subdue the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 4.7% to 3,886.83, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 6.0% to 13,856.30, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 11bps to 1.17% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.5%
U.S. stock markets were higher last week with stock prices supported by strong economic reports
and hopes of additional stimulus spending. Slightly lower-than-expected jobless claims, a strongerthan-expected PMI Composite Flash Index release and much better-than-expected housing starts
and permits and existing home sales combined with Janet Yellen’s call for additional, larger stimulus
spending and President Biden’s announcement of a $1.9 trillion stimulus package helped move stock
prices higher through most of the week. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed the week at a record
high elevated by strong performance by Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Netflix while the S&P 500
Index, hurt by poor IBM and Intel earnings reports, closed just off its record high set Thursday. At
week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 2.0% to 3,841.47, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 4.2% to
13,543.06, the 10-year U.S. Treasury was unchanged at 1.09% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by
the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.6%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 22 Jan 2021
25 January, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets were higher last week with stock prices supported by strong economic reports
and hopes of additional stimulus spending. Slightly lower-than-expected jobless claims, a strongerthan-expected PMI Composite Flash Index release and much better-than-expected housing starts
and permits and existing home sales combined with Janet Yellen’s call for additional, larger stimulus
spending and President Biden’s announcement of a $1.9 trillion stimulus package helped move stock
prices higher through most of the week. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed the week at a record
high elevated by strong performance by Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Netflix while the S&P 500
Index, hurt by poor IBM and Intel earnings reports, closed just off its record high set Thursday. At
week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 2.0% to 3,841.47, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 4.2% to
13,543.06, the 10-year U.S. Treasury was unchanged at 1.09% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by
the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.6%.
Finishing lower on the week, U.S. stock markets were pressured by weaker-than-expected economic
numbers and perhaps concerns of lofty valuations and rising interest rates. Larger-than-expected
jobless claims and an unexpected decline in retail sales combined with disappointing bank earnings
reports and weak tech stock performance set the stage for weaker stock markets. President-elect
Biden’s stimulus plan announcement late Thursday failed to support stock prices with the news
seemingly already priced in. Though 10-year U.S. Treasury rates were slightly lower on the week,
they maintained levels greater than 1%, perhaps indicating continued concern about the low level of
real rates and prospective inflation. The U.S. dollar strengthened last week, with most of the
increase occuring Friday. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index decreased 1.5% to 3,768.25, the Nasdaq
Composite Index decreased 1.5% to 12,998.50, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 3bps to 1.09% and
the dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.8%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 15 Jan 2021
19 January, 2021 | GraniteShares
Finishing lower on the week, U.S. stock markets were pressured by weaker-than-expected economic
numbers and perhaps concerns of lofty valuations and rising interest rates. Larger-than-expected
jobless claims and an unexpected decline in retail sales combined with disappointing bank earnings
reports and weak tech stock performance set the stage for weaker stock markets. President-elect
Biden’s stimulus plan announcement late Thursday failed to support stock prices with the news
seemingly already priced in. Though 10-year U.S. Treasury rates were slightly lower on the week,
they maintained levels greater than 1%, perhaps indicating continued concern about the low level of
real rates and prospective inflation. The U.S. dollar strengthened last week, with most of the
increase occuring Friday. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index decreased 1.5% to 3,768.25, the Nasdaq
Composite Index decreased 1.5% to 12,998.50, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 3bps to 1.09% and
the dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.8%.
U.S. stock markets moved higher last week after starting the week and the year with a sharp selloff. Coronavirus-related concerns and uncertainty surrounding Georgia Senate runoff elections present on Monday were diminished after Democrat wins in Georia and Joe Biden being declared the next president of the U.S. Expectations of increased stimulus spending and Saudi Arabia’s announcement it would unilaterally reduce oil production helped power oil prices, global stock markets and longer-term U.S. interest rates higher while also strengthening the U.S. dollar despite a weaker-than-expected employment report. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.8% to 3,824.68, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 2.4% to 13,201.98, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate jumped 20bps to 1.12% and the dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened .2%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 08 Jan 2021
11 January, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets moved higher last week after starting the week and the year with a sharp selloff. Coronavirus-related concerns and uncertainty surrounding Georgia Senate runoff elections present on Monday were diminished after Democrat wins in Georia and Joe Biden being declared the next president of the U.S. Expectations of increased stimulus spending and Saudi Arabia’s announcement it would unilaterally reduce oil production helped power oil prices, global stock markets and longer-term U.S. interest rates higher while also strengthening the U.S. dollar despite a weaker-than-expected employment report. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.8% to 3,824.68, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 2.4% to 13,201.98, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate jumped 20bps to 1.12% and the dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened .2%.
U.S. stock market moved higher last week with the S&P 500 closing at a record high and up over 16% on the year. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed just short of its record high finishing the year 43% higher. Mixed economic news – inlcuding lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims and disappointing pending home sales numbers - was offset by President Trump’s signing of the $900 billion stimulus package though congressional resistance to increased individual stimulus checks may have limited stock market gains. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.4% to 3,756.07, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 0.7% to 12,888.28, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 1bp to 92bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.4%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 31 Dec 2020
04 January, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock market moved higher last week with the S&P 500 closing at a record high and up over 16% on the year. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed just short of its record high finishing the year 43% higher. Mixed economic news – inlcuding lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims and disappointing pending home sales numbers - was offset by President Trump’s signing of the $900 billion stimulus package though congressional resistance to increased individual stimulus checks may have limited stock market gains. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.4% to 3,756.07, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 0.7% to 12,888.28, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 1bp to 92bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.4%.
Despite greater-than-expected jobless claims, a larger-than expected decline in retail sales and increased restrictions resulting from rising Covid-19 cases, U.S. stock markets rose last week primarily on hopes of passage of a scaled-down fiscal stimulus package. Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine was approved for emergency use by the FDA on Friday while the first doses of Pfizer’s vaccine were administered Monday. The FOMC announcement following the completion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday was mainly as expected with no changes in interest rate policy or buyback programs, though the Fed did increase its GDP growth forecast for 2021 and scaled back slightly its forecasted GDP decline for 2020. The U.S. dollar weakened significantly last week with longer-term U.S. interest rates rising, resulting mainly from increased “risk-on” market sentiment supported by increased expectations of passage of a U.S. stimulus package before year-end. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.3% to 3,709.41, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 3.1% to 12,755.64, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 5bps to 95bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 1.1%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 18 Dec 2020
21 December, 2020 | GraniteShares
Despite greater-than-expected jobless claims, a larger-than expected decline in retail sales and increased restrictions resulting from rising Covid-19 cases, U.S. stock markets rose last week primarily on hopes of passage of a scaled-down fiscal stimulus package. Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine was approved for emergency use by the FDA on Friday while the first doses of Pfizer’s vaccine were administered Monday. The FOMC announcement following the completion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday was mainly as expected with no changes in interest rate policy or buyback programs, though the Fed did increase its GDP growth forecast for 2021 and scaled back slightly its forecasted GDP decline for 2020. The U.S. dollar weakened significantly last week with longer-term U.S. interest rates rising, resulting mainly from increased “risk-on” market sentiment supported by increased expectations of passage of a U.S. stimulus package before year-end. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.3% to 3,709.41, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 3.1% to 12,755.64, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 5bps to 95bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 1.1%.
Exchange traded products (ETPs) are investments that provide exposure to different asset classes such as equities, fixed income, commodities and foreign exchange. They are mostly passively managed, tracking an index or another underlying benchmark. ETPs are traded on stock exchanges such as London Stock Exchange. They trade and settle like shares in the market and provide continuous liquidity during market hours. Are you thinking about investing in ETPs? GraniteShares offers a wide range of short and leveraged single stock ETPs for sophisticated investors!
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: ETP and Industry , Single stock research
Everything You Need to Know About ETPs
16 December, 2020 | GraniteShares
Exchange traded products (ETPs) are investments that provide exposure to different asset classes such as equities, fixed income, commodities and foreign exchange. They are mostly passively managed, tracking an index or another underlying benchmark. ETPs are traded on stock exchanges such as London Stock Exchange. They trade and settle like shares in the market and provide continuous liquidity during market hours. Are you thinking about investing in ETPs? GraniteShares offers a wide range of short and leveraged single stock ETPs for sophisticated investors!
Rising Covid-19 infections and related restrictions, larger-than-expected jobless claims and faltering hopes of a stimulus package moved U.S. stock markets off their early-in-the-week record highs to finish lower on the week. Late Friday, after market close, the FDA approved emergency use of Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine with shipments expected to begin immediately while the UK began administering Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine Tuesday. The U.S. dollar strengthened last week mainly as a result of increased uncertainty of a U.S. stimulus package, the ECB announcing it would be expanding its buyback program and as result of a steep decline in the British pound due to stalled UK – EU trade talks. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index decreased 1.0% to 3,663.46, the Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 0.7% to 12,377.87, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 7bps to 9bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.3%
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 12 Dec 2020
14 December, 2020 | GraniteShares
Rising Covid-19 infections and related restrictions, larger-than-expected jobless claims and faltering hopes of a stimulus package moved U.S. stock markets off their early-in-the-week record highs to finish lower on the week. Late Friday, after market close, the FDA approved emergency use of Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine with shipments expected to begin immediately while the UK began administering Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine Tuesday. The U.S. dollar strengthened last week mainly as a result of increased uncertainty of a U.S. stimulus package, the ECB announcing it would be expanding its buyback program and as result of a steep decline in the British pound due to stalled UK – EU trade talks. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index decreased 1.0% to 3,663.46, the Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 0.7% to 12,377.87, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 7bps to 9bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.3%
Week in review: Countdown starts to Tesla’s S&P 500 entry
Despite good news on the vaccine front, with both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna showing efficacy rates of 95%, the FTSE 100 ended up 0.6% on the week and the S&P 500 down 0.8%. Investor enthusiasm was tempered by factors such as the ongoing increase in infection numbers, no progress on new stimulus measures in the U.S., and still no EU-UK trade deal. Negotiations on the latter were interrupted when a member of the EU team contracted coronavirus; could an extension to the transition period be in the offing if more time is needed to clinch a deal? Data releases in the U.S. included retail sales which rose 0.3% in October and industrial production, which saw manufacturing output increase 1% in October but still remains 5% below its February level. In Europe, November’s flash consumer confidence figures fell in both the euro area (2.1 points down) and the EU (2.2 points down). The latest UK public finance figures were released, debt hit 100.8% of GDP in October.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 20 Nov 2020
23 November, 2020 | GraniteShares
Week in review: Countdown starts to Tesla’s S&P 500 entry
Despite good news on the vaccine front, with both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna showing efficacy rates of 95%, the FTSE 100 ended up 0.6% on the week and the S&P 500 down 0.8%. Investor enthusiasm was tempered by factors such as the ongoing increase in infection numbers, no progress on new stimulus measures in the U.S., and still no EU-UK trade deal. Negotiations on the latter were interrupted when a member of the EU team contracted coronavirus; could an extension to the transition period be in the offing if more time is needed to clinch a deal? Data releases in the U.S. included retail sales which rose 0.3% in October and industrial production, which saw manufacturing output increase 1% in October but still remains 5% below its February level. In Europe, November’s flash consumer confidence figures fell in both the euro area (2.1 points down) and the EU (2.2 points down). The latest UK public finance figures were released, debt hit 100.8% of GDP in October.
Week in review: Cyclicals back in the limelight
Investor reaction to the news on Pfizer’s vaccine on Monday sent cyclical stocks, sharply higher, with Rolls-Royce leading the pack rising 44% on the day. Over the week, investors’ enthusiasm became more muted as the challenges involved in manufacturing and distributing the vaccine became evident. With the focus on cyclicals, the FTSE 100 ended up 6.9% on the week ahead of the S&P 500’s 2.2% rise. With no significant data releases, investors focused on the Fed’s Financial Stability Report, which highlighted the relatively high levels of leverage in hedge funds and life insurance companies in contrast to the historic lows as broker-dealers. Apart from the risks associated with the pandemic, it also looked at climate change and the risks to the European and U.S. financial systems of a no-trade-deal Brexit. Christine Lagarde’s speech “Monetary policy in a pandemic emergency” at the ECB Forum on Central Banking was closely followed, and included the current central banker’s mantra, “The right policy mix is essential. Fiscal policy has to remain at the centre of the stabilisation effort… and the Next Generation EU package should become operational without delay.”
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 13 Nov 2020
16 November, 2020 | GraniteShares
Week in review: Cyclicals back in the limelight
Investor reaction to the news on Pfizer’s vaccine on Monday sent cyclical stocks, sharply higher, with Rolls-Royce leading the pack rising 44% on the day. Over the week, investors’ enthusiasm became more muted as the challenges involved in manufacturing and distributing the vaccine became evident. With the focus on cyclicals, the FTSE 100 ended up 6.9% on the week ahead of the S&P 500’s 2.2% rise. With no significant data releases, investors focused on the Fed’s Financial Stability Report, which highlighted the relatively high levels of leverage in hedge funds and life insurance companies in contrast to the historic lows as broker-dealers. Apart from the risks associated with the pandemic, it also looked at climate change and the risks to the European and U.S. financial systems of a no-trade-deal Brexit. Christine Lagarde’s speech “Monetary policy in a pandemic emergency” at the ECB Forum on Central Banking was closely followed, and included the current central banker’s mantra, “The right policy mix is essential. Fiscal policy has to remain at the centre of the stabilisation effort… and the Next Generation EU package should become operational without delay.”
Week in review: Markets on a charge as U.S. election results come in
Markets had their best week since March with the S&P 500 up 7.3% and FTSE 100 up 6.0% as investors digested the implications of the unfolding election results in the U.S. In terms of the main event, on Saturday, the result in Pennsylvania meant that Joe Biden had secured the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidential election, while the make-up of the Senate looked like hinging on two run-off votes in Georgia in January. In economic news, the Bank of England increased its QE programme by £150bn, taking the total stock of bond purchases to £875bn. The Fed kept its policies unchanged and will continue to increase its “holdings of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities at least at the current pace” and Fed chair Powell underlined the importance of fiscal policy to support the economy. Data points of note during the week included the Caixin Manufacturing PMI which rose to 53.6 in October, its highest level since January 2011, in the U.S. total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 638,000 in October with gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction, while eurozone retail sales were down 2% in September highlighting the challenges ahead.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 06 Nov 2020
09 November, 2020 | GraniteShares
Week in review: Markets on a charge as U.S. election results come in
Markets had their best week since March with the S&P 500 up 7.3% and FTSE 100 up 6.0% as investors digested the implications of the unfolding election results in the U.S. In terms of the main event, on Saturday, the result in Pennsylvania meant that Joe Biden had secured the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidential election, while the make-up of the Senate looked like hinging on two run-off votes in Georgia in January. In economic news, the Bank of England increased its QE programme by £150bn, taking the total stock of bond purchases to £875bn. The Fed kept its policies unchanged and will continue to increase its “holdings of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities at least at the current pace” and Fed chair Powell underlined the importance of fiscal policy to support the economy. Data points of note during the week included the Caixin Manufacturing PMI which rose to 53.6 in October, its highest level since January 2011, in the U.S. total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 638,000 in October with gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction, while eurozone retail sales were down 2% in September highlighting the challenges ahead.
Markets had their worst week since March with the S&P 500 down 5.6% and FTSE 100 down 4.8%. The two factors behind the weakness are: the run-up to next week’s U.S. presidential election whose outcome remains finely balanced and the record numbers of pandemic-related infections being reported in a number of countries and the return of national lockdowns, notably with France on Friday. At this point, any backward looking positive economic data releases, particularly the positive GDP figures for 3Q20 in the U.S. and across a number of European countries, can be discounted. In this context at the ECB meeting on 29 October, Christine Lagarde’s statement indicated that based on the macroeconomic assessment in December, “the Governing Council will recalibrate its instruments, as appropriate, to respond to the unfolding situation and to ensure that financing conditions remain favourable to support the economic recovery and counteract the negative impact of the pandemic on the projected inflation path.” Prepare for further stimulus in December.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 30 Oct 2020
02 November, 2020 | GraniteShares
Markets had their worst week since March with the S&P 500 down 5.6% and FTSE 100 down 4.8%. The two factors behind the weakness are: the run-up to next week’s U.S. presidential election whose outcome remains finely balanced and the record numbers of pandemic-related infections being reported in a number of countries and the return of national lockdowns, notably with France on Friday. At this point, any backward looking positive economic data releases, particularly the positive GDP figures for 3Q20 in the U.S. and across a number of European countries, can be discounted. In this context at the ECB meeting on 29 October, Christine Lagarde’s statement indicated that based on the macroeconomic assessment in December, “the Governing Council will recalibrate its instruments, as appropriate, to respond to the unfolding situation and to ensure that financing conditions remain favourable to support the economic recovery and counteract the negative impact of the pandemic on the projected inflation path.” Prepare for further stimulus in December.
Markets were becalmed over the week with the S&P 500 down 0.5% and FTSE 100 down 1%. The rising number of pandemic-related infections is a growing source of concern; in Europe, Spain and Italy have reported over one million cases and lockdown-like measures have been put in place across various parts of the UK. Against this backdrop, eurozone PMIs indicated a fall in business activity in October, which highlight the increasing risk of a contraction in GDP in the fourth quarter, perhaps a catalyst to help EU-UK trade negotiators surmount outstanding difficulties. In the U.S., the latest presidential debate was not decisive, although Biden’s energy misstep might cost some votes in shale-producing regions. Agreement on a relief package remains elusive with Senate Republicans reluctant to be seen to be meeting all Democrat demands. While U.S. jobless claims fell to 787,000, below the consensus figure of 870,000, thanks to the resumption of reporting from California, the figure still exceeds the 665,000 high in the great financial crisis indicating the ongoing fragility of the job market and the need for a package.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 23 Oct 2020
26 October, 2020 | GraniteShares
Markets were becalmed over the week with the S&P 500 down 0.5% and FTSE 100 down 1%. The rising number of pandemic-related infections is a growing source of concern; in Europe, Spain and Italy have reported over one million cases and lockdown-like measures have been put in place across various parts of the UK. Against this backdrop, eurozone PMIs indicated a fall in business activity in October, which highlight the increasing risk of a contraction in GDP in the fourth quarter, perhaps a catalyst to help EU-UK trade negotiators surmount outstanding difficulties. In the U.S., the latest presidential debate was not decisive, although Biden’s energy misstep might cost some votes in shale-producing regions. Agreement on a relief package remains elusive with Senate Republicans reluctant to be seen to be meeting all Democrat demands. While U.S. jobless claims fell to 787,000, below the consensus figure of 870,000, thanks to the resumption of reporting from California, the figure still exceeds the 665,000 high in the great financial crisis indicating the ongoing fragility of the job market and the need for a package.
Week in review: BoJo ups the ante on trade talks, UK credit rating downgraded
Friday saw the UK PM issue a statement indicating that the UK wanted “nothing more complicated than a Canada-style relationship, based on friendship and free trade”, however given the EU Summit on 15 October ruled out this possibility, “We should get ready for January 1 with arrangements that are more like Australia’s based on simple principles of global free trade.” Despite the goings-on, the FTSE ended up 1.5% on the day, but down 1.6% on the week, and, after the market close, Moody’s announced it was downgrading the UK to Aa3 stable on “low growth, high debt, and fractious policy environment”. Meanwhile, it was a quiet week over the Atlantic with the S&P 500 up 0.2%. For now at least investors do not appeared overly concerned by the worsening economic picture: initial jobless claims for the week ending 8 October were 898,000, industrial production fell 0.6 percent in September, its first decline after four consecutive months of gains. One bright spot, U.S, retail sales came in with a 1.9% increase in September. It was another week of tightening restrictions in Europe, which, in the UK at least, are proving more contentious than earlier in the year because of the associated economic and human costs.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 16 Oct 2020
19 October, 2020 | GraniteShares
Week in review: BoJo ups the ante on trade talks, UK credit rating downgraded
Friday saw the UK PM issue a statement indicating that the UK wanted “nothing more complicated than a Canada-style relationship, based on friendship and free trade”, however given the EU Summit on 15 October ruled out this possibility, “We should get ready for January 1 with arrangements that are more like Australia’s based on simple principles of global free trade.” Despite the goings-on, the FTSE ended up 1.5% on the day, but down 1.6% on the week, and, after the market close, Moody’s announced it was downgrading the UK to Aa3 stable on “low growth, high debt, and fractious policy environment”. Meanwhile, it was a quiet week over the Atlantic with the S&P 500 up 0.2%. For now at least investors do not appeared overly concerned by the worsening economic picture: initial jobless claims for the week ending 8 October were 898,000, industrial production fell 0.6 percent in September, its first decline after four consecutive months of gains. One bright spot, U.S, retail sales came in with a 1.9% increase in September. It was another week of tightening restrictions in Europe, which, in the UK at least, are proving more contentious than earlier in the year because of the associated economic and human costs.
The week saw the U.S. President leave hospital, kill off any chances of a stimulus package before the election then changing his mind urging Congress to pass piecemeal aid packages, before announcing he would resume rallies in key states. Meanwhile in a parallel universe, the significant move in the Rolls-Royce share price came after it hit a 52-week low on 2 October, and, yes, the UK’s FCA announced that crypto derivatives would be banned for retail consumers from January 2021. More broadly, it was a good week for both S&P 500 and FTSE 100, which rose by 3.8% and 1.9% respectively. Notable on the economics front was a speech from Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, echoed by the FOMC Minutes, in which he underlined the need for continued fiscal stimulus, “The recovery will be stronger and move faster if monetary policy and fiscal policy continue to work side by side.” We are in a world where any economic positives are counterbalanced by rising Covid infection rates. New restrictions are resulting in additional policies to protect incomes and support businesses, see, for example, the UK’s expansion of the Job Support Scheme.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 09 Oct 2020
12 October, 2020 | GraniteShares
The week saw the U.S. President leave hospital, kill off any chances of a stimulus package before the election then changing his mind urging Congress to pass piecemeal aid packages, before announcing he would resume rallies in key states. Meanwhile in a parallel universe, the significant move in the Rolls-Royce share price came after it hit a 52-week low on 2 October, and, yes, the UK’s FCA announced that crypto derivatives would be banned for retail consumers from January 2021. More broadly, it was a good week for both S&P 500 and FTSE 100, which rose by 3.8% and 1.9% respectively. Notable on the economics front was a speech from Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, echoed by the FOMC Minutes, in which he underlined the need for continued fiscal stimulus, “The recovery will be stronger and move faster if monetary policy and fiscal policy continue to work side by side.” We are in a world where any economic positives are counterbalanced by rising Covid infection rates. New restrictions are resulting in additional policies to protect incomes and support businesses, see, for example, the UK’s expansion of the Job Support Scheme.
The tweet in the early hours of Friday morning by the U.S. President that both he and his wife had contracted Covid-19 shook investors and led to a 3.48% rise in the VIX and a fall of 0.96% in the S&P 500, which still left it, like the FTSE 100, in positive territory over the week. The President’s illness, with the U.S. election barely four weeks away, is the latest ingredient in the cocktail of uncertainty facing investors. Most immediately, in addition to the President’s health, investors have to assess the chances of a new stimulus package being agreed before the election, and, on this side of the pond, whether the EU and UK can reach an agreement on trade after failing to do so after nine negotiating rounds.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 02 Oct 2020
05 October, 2020 | GraniteShares
The tweet in the early hours of Friday morning by the U.S. President that both he and his wife had contracted Covid-19 shook investors and led to a 3.48% rise in the VIX and a fall of 0.96% in the S&P 500, which still left it, like the FTSE 100, in positive territory over the week. The President’s illness, with the U.S. election barely four weeks away, is the latest ingredient in the cocktail of uncertainty facing investors. Most immediately, in addition to the President’s health, investors have to assess the chances of a new stimulus package being agreed before the election, and, on this side of the pond, whether the EU and UK can reach an agreement on trade after failing to do so after nine negotiating rounds.
Both the S&P 500 and FTSE 100 fell on the week, by -0.63% and -2.74% respectively, and the VIX had some significant swings and ended the week at 26.38. In the UK, both Lloyds Banking Group and Rolls-Royce had a second consecutive week of hitting new 52-week lows. In the case of the latter, rumours on Friday that the Kuwait Investment Office was going to take a stake provided some support for the share price, a post-market RNS from the company indicated that all fund options were being considered and no decisions had been taken,
including “any allotment of shares to any investor including any sovereign wealth fund.” Investors are looking ahead to what could prove to be a difficult final quarter for economies with the rise of Covid-19 infections. Rising job losses seem inevitable, the FTWeekend led with “Axe set to fall on 1m jobs this year” in the UK, meanwhile in the US, ING suggests that job growth may have hit a plateau.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 25 Sep 2020
28 September, 2020 | GraniteShares
Both the S&P 500 and FTSE 100 fell on the week, by -0.63% and -2.74% respectively, and the VIX had some significant swings and ended the week at 26.38. In the UK, both Lloyds Banking Group and Rolls-Royce had a second consecutive week of hitting new 52-week lows. In the case of the latter, rumours on Friday that the Kuwait Investment Office was going to take a stake provided some support for the share price, a post-market RNS from the company indicated that all fund options were being considered and no decisions had been taken,
including “any allotment of shares to any investor including any sovereign wealth fund.” Investors are looking ahead to what could prove to be a difficult final quarter for economies with the rise of Covid-19 infections. Rising job losses seem inevitable, the FTWeekend led with “Axe set to fall on 1m jobs this year” in the UK, meanwhile in the US, ING suggests that job growth may have hit a plateau.
Tech remained under pressure, with Apple down 4.6% in the week it announced its Apple One bundle, leading to a fall of 0.64% in the S&P 500, while the FTSE 100 was down 0.42%, with Lloyds Banking Group and Rolls-Royce hitting new 52 week lows. Investors have plenty to fret about: the looming presidential election, simmering U.S.-China tensions, and, in Europe, rising new cases of Covid-19 raising concerns about scope for new lockdowns as we head into autumn (see chart below). Central banks were centre stage with the Fed suggesting rates are on hold until 2024, with only four of the 17 FOMC members expecting a rise in 2023. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee indicated that it “does not intend to tighten monetary policy until there is clear evidence that significant progress is being made in eliminating spare capacity and achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably,” and negative rates are under review as an option “should the outlook for inflation and output warrant it.”
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 18 Sep 2020
21 September, 2020 | GraniteShares
Tech remained under pressure, with Apple down 4.6% in the week it announced its Apple One bundle, leading to a fall of 0.64% in the S&P 500, while the FTSE 100 was down 0.42%, with Lloyds Banking Group and Rolls-Royce hitting new 52 week lows. Investors have plenty to fret about: the looming presidential election, simmering U.S.-China tensions, and, in Europe, rising new cases of Covid-19 raising concerns about scope for new lockdowns as we head into autumn (see chart below). Central banks were centre stage with the Fed suggesting rates are on hold until 2024, with only four of the 17 FOMC members expecting a rise in 2023. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee indicated that it “does not intend to tighten monetary policy until there is clear evidence that significant progress is being made in eliminating spare capacity and achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably,” and negative rates are under review as an option “should the outlook for inflation and output warrant it.”
Tech was again a drag on markets leading to a fall of 2.51% in the S&P 500 while the FTSE 100 rose by 1.59%. Despite tech’s reversal, as pointed out by Michael Mackenzie in the FT, the Nasdaq 100 is still up nearly 60% from its March lows. There are still factors that are supportive of the sector, including the earnings yield, which, unlike in 2000, is comfortably above that of a 30-year Treasury bond. On the economic front, the UK-EU Future Relationship negotiations now risk hitting an impasse if the UK government is able to get its draft internal market bill, which would undermine the terms of the Brexit deal, through Parliament. Pressure on sterling could mount further.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 11 Sep 2020
14 September, 2020 | GraniteShares
Tech was again a drag on markets leading to a fall of 2.51% in the S&P 500 while the FTSE 100 rose by 1.59%. Despite tech’s reversal, as pointed out by Michael Mackenzie in the FT, the Nasdaq 100 is still up nearly 60% from its March lows. There are still factors that are supportive of the sector, including the earnings yield, which, unlike in 2000, is comfortably above that of a 30-year Treasury bond. On the economic front, the UK-EU Future Relationship negotiations now risk hitting an impasse if the UK government is able to get its draft internal market bill, which would undermine the terms of the Brexit deal, through Parliament. Pressure on sterling could mount further.
A significant correction in tech stocks led to 2.31% weekly fall in the S&P 500, while in the UK, where chances of a trade deal with the EU are receding, the FTSE 100 was down 2.76%. The ‘Nasdaq whale’, the force behind the tech rally, has been identified: Softbank. The cover story in FTWeekend reported that Softbank has bought billions of dollars’ worth of equity options over the last month. The FT highlighted analysis by Goldman Sachs that the overall nominal value of calls on US stocks averaged $335 billion a day over the past two weeks, triple the rolling average in 2017 to 2019. One to follow closely over the coming weeks. Turning to economic indicators, the global PMIs for August were positive with strengthening growth in a number of sectors, led by healthcare, autos and real estate. U.S. nonfarm payroll employment rose by 1.4 million in August, and the unemployment rate fell to 8.4% from 10.2%, which means that 13.55 million people are ‘officially’ unemployed, i.e. actively seeking work.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 04 Sep 2020
07 September, 2020 | GraniteShares
A significant correction in tech stocks led to 2.31% weekly fall in the S&P 500, while in the UK, where chances of a trade deal with the EU are receding, the FTSE 100 was down 2.76%. The ‘Nasdaq whale’, the force behind the tech rally, has been identified: Softbank. The cover story in FTWeekend reported that Softbank has bought billions of dollars’ worth of equity options over the last month. The FT highlighted analysis by Goldman Sachs that the overall nominal value of calls on US stocks averaged $335 billion a day over the past two weeks, triple the rolling average in 2017 to 2019. One to follow closely over the coming weeks. Turning to economic indicators, the global PMIs for August were positive with strengthening growth in a number of sectors, led by healthcare, autos and real estate. U.S. nonfarm payroll employment rose by 1.4 million in August, and the unemployment rate fell to 8.4% from 10.2%, which means that 13.55 million people are ‘officially’ unemployed, i.e. actively seeking work.
The S&P 500 ended the week up 3.26%, led by the communication services and technology sectors, and the FTSE 100 was down 0.64%. The big event of the week was the annual Jackson Hole conference, at which Fed Chair, Jerome Powell signalled average inflation targeting, “Following periods when inflation has been running below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.” This change in policy was framed in the context of several factors including falling expectations for the long-term potential growth rate of the economy and a strong labour market that did not trigger a “significant rise in inflation.”
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 28 Aug 2020
31 August, 2020 | GraniteShares
The S&P 500 ended the week up 3.26%, led by the communication services and technology sectors, and the FTSE 100 was down 0.64%. The big event of the week was the annual Jackson Hole conference, at which Fed Chair, Jerome Powell signalled average inflation targeting, “Following periods when inflation has been running below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.” This change in policy was framed in the context of several factors including falling expectations for the long-term potential growth rate of the economy and a strong labour market that did not trigger a “significant rise in inflation.”
The summer doldrums continued with the S&P 500 up 0.72% and the FTSE 100 down 1.45%. From a UK perspective, the seventh round of negotiations with the EU on a future partnership ended with little progress being made in key areas such as fisheries, governance, law enforcement, and mobility and social security coordination. Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, wrote on Twitter, “We are worried about the state of play of the negotiations with #UK. We do not see how we can have a better agreement if we leave the most difficult subjects to the end. We risk running out of time.” Separately, the Office for National Statistics published the latest public sector finance figures, not pretty reading. Debt stood at over £2 trillion at the end of July for the first time ever, representing 100.5% of gross domestic product (GDP), an increase of 20.4 percentage points compared with the same point last year and the first time it has been above 100% since March 1961. Inflation is down the pike
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 21 Aug 2020
24 August, 2020 | GraniteShares
The summer doldrums continued with the S&P 500 up 0.72% and the FTSE 100 down 1.45%. From a UK perspective, the seventh round of negotiations with the EU on a future partnership ended with little progress being made in key areas such as fisheries, governance, law enforcement, and mobility and social security coordination. Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, wrote on Twitter, “We are worried about the state of play of the negotiations with #UK. We do not see how we can have a better agreement if we leave the most difficult subjects to the end. We risk running out of time.” Separately, the Office for National Statistics published the latest public sector finance figures, not pretty reading. Debt stood at over £2 trillion at the end of July for the first time ever, representing 100.5% of gross domestic product (GDP), an increase of 20.4 percentage points compared with the same point last year and the first time it has been above 100% since March 1961. Inflation is down the pike
It was a relatively quiet week in markets with the S&P 500 up 0.64% and the FTSE 100 0.96%. The VIX remains below 25 and ended the week at 22.05. The economic backdrop remains challenging with U.S. not lifting tariffs on European goods, ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the lingering pandemic. The UK recorded an estimated 20.4% fall in GDP in 2Q 2020, the worst of any major economy, and way above the Netherlands 8.5% fall – its worst on record. In contrast, the U.S. consumer has not disappointed and U.S. retail sales are now back to their pre-pandemic levels, but many have highlighted that August may see a contraction with the removal of $600 per week federal unemployment cheque. U.S. manufacturing has recovered quickly but remains 8% below its December peak.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 14 Aug 2020
17 August, 2020 | GraniteShares
It was a relatively quiet week in markets with the S&P 500 up 0.64% and the FTSE 100 0.96%. The VIX remains below 25 and ended the week at 22.05. The economic backdrop remains challenging with U.S. not lifting tariffs on European goods, ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the lingering pandemic. The UK recorded an estimated 20.4% fall in GDP in 2Q 2020, the worst of any major economy, and way above the Netherlands 8.5% fall – its worst on record. In contrast, the U.S. consumer has not disappointed and U.S. retail sales are now back to their pre-pandemic levels, but many have highlighted that August may see a contraction with the removal of $600 per week federal unemployment cheque. U.S. manufacturing has recovered quickly but remains 8% below its December peak.
European stock markets finished higher last week with the Stoxx 600 Index increasing 2.2%, the FTSE 100 Index climbing 2.3% and the DAX index rising 2.9%. Most of these gains occurred Monday, following stronger-than-expected IHS Markit, Caixin and ISM manufacturing index releases in Europe, China and the U.S., respectively. The BoE’s MPC met last week leaving rates unchanged and reaffirming its commitment to its aggressive stimulative monetary policy in light of uncertainties produced by the ongoing coronavirus pandemic while, surprisingly, at the same time improving its economic growth expectations. The Euro, 0.8% higher against U.S. dollar through Thursday, gave up most of those gains on Friday after a much-stronger-than-expected U.S. employment situation report. The pound weakened 0.3% against the U.S. dollar and the euro. UK economic data for the upcoming week include GDP, industrial and manufacturing output and job figures all on Wednesday. EU economic data for the upcoming week include industrial production (Wednesday), ZEW indicator of economic sentiment (Tuesday) and second reading of GDP (Friday).
Against a backdrop of better-than-expected economic reports and earning results and indications new Covid-19 cases may be falling, U.S. stock market all moved higher again last week despite concerns over increased U.S.-China frictions and stalled congressional progess on additional coronavirus relief funds. Better-than-expected factory order and ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing index numbers combined with a lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims number and a stronger-than-expected payroll report helped move U.S. equity markets higher. Earning results reported last week were predominantly positive also helping move equity markets higher. Early-in-the-week optimism that congress would reach agreement on additional coronavirus-related relief funds faded as the week ended with no progress, but was slightly ameliorated with the Trump administration announcing the President may issue executive orders to extend existing programs. Both the U.S. dollar and the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate moved off their lows reached earlier in the week on stronger-than-expected economic reports and signs the number of new Covid-19 cases may be decreasing. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite index each increased 2.5% to 3,351.28 and 11,010.98, respectively. the 10-year U.S. interest rate increased 4 bps to 57bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) was unchanged.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 07 Aug 2020
10 August, 2020 | GraniteShares
European stock markets finished higher last week with the Stoxx 600 Index increasing 2.2%, the FTSE 100 Index climbing 2.3% and the DAX index rising 2.9%. Most of these gains occurred Monday, following stronger-than-expected IHS Markit, Caixin and ISM manufacturing index releases in Europe, China and the U.S., respectively. The BoE’s MPC met last week leaving rates unchanged and reaffirming its commitment to its aggressive stimulative monetary policy in light of uncertainties produced by the ongoing coronavirus pandemic while, surprisingly, at the same time improving its economic growth expectations. The Euro, 0.8% higher against U.S. dollar through Thursday, gave up most of those gains on Friday after a much-stronger-than-expected U.S. employment situation report. The pound weakened 0.3% against the U.S. dollar and the euro. UK economic data for the upcoming week include GDP, industrial and manufacturing output and job figures all on Wednesday. EU economic data for the upcoming week include industrial production (Wednesday), ZEW indicator of economic sentiment (Tuesday) and second reading of GDP (Friday).
Against a backdrop of better-than-expected economic reports and earning results and indications new Covid-19 cases may be falling, U.S. stock market all moved higher again last week despite concerns over increased U.S.-China frictions and stalled congressional progess on additional coronavirus relief funds. Better-than-expected factory order and ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing index numbers combined with a lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims number and a stronger-than-expected payroll report helped move U.S. equity markets higher. Earning results reported last week were predominantly positive also helping move equity markets higher. Early-in-the-week optimism that congress would reach agreement on additional coronavirus-related relief funds faded as the week ended with no progress, but was slightly ameliorated with the Trump administration announcing the President may issue executive orders to extend existing programs. Both the U.S. dollar and the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate moved off their lows reached earlier in the week on stronger-than-expected economic reports and signs the number of new Covid-19 cases may be decreasing. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite index each increased 2.5% to 3,351.28 and 11,010.98, respectively. the 10-year U.S. interest rate increased 4 bps to 57bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) was unchanged.
It was a week of sharp contrasts: strong numbers from tech giants, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, on the one hand counterbalanced by significant falls in GDP in the U.S. and eurozone combined with growing concerns about the pandemic. On Friday, the World Health Organization reported a record increase in global coronavirus cases, with the total rising by 292,527, and with Brazil, the U.S., India and South Africa having the biggest increases. In Europe, there has been an uptick in infections, which, in the UK, has led Boris Johnson to postpone plans to re-open high-risk venues such as casinos, as well as the government imposing new quarantine conditions on people travelling into the UK from Spain. Against this backdrop, it is hardly surprising that Willie Walsh, the CEO of IAG, which announced a €2.75 billion rights issue, indicated that he doesn’t think air travel will return to pre-Covid levels until 2023. The banks too face a challenging environment and the ECB this week asked that banks not pay dividends or buy back shares at least until January, three months longer than initially indicated, and expects banks “to exercise extreme moderation on variable remuneration to conserve capital in crisis”. It will review its position in Q4, as will the Bank of England, which indicated that it would conduct a review of any plans by the UK’s biggest banks to pay dividends.
The S&P 500 rose on the week driven by the strong quarterly results from the tech giants, which will probably lead to even closer scrutiny from politicians and regulators looking at anti-competitive behaviour. In contrast, the FTSE 100 fell as quarterly results from the blue chips reflected the difficulties facing old economy stocks across sectors such as banks and oil and gas. There were some bright spots, BAE Systems reinstated its dividend and the miners are seeing good levels of demand across different commodities.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 31 July 2020
03 August, 2020 | GraniteShares
It was a week of sharp contrasts: strong numbers from tech giants, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, on the one hand counterbalanced by significant falls in GDP in the U.S. and eurozone combined with growing concerns about the pandemic. On Friday, the World Health Organization reported a record increase in global coronavirus cases, with the total rising by 292,527, and with Brazil, the U.S., India and South Africa having the biggest increases. In Europe, there has been an uptick in infections, which, in the UK, has led Boris Johnson to postpone plans to re-open high-risk venues such as casinos, as well as the government imposing new quarantine conditions on people travelling into the UK from Spain. Against this backdrop, it is hardly surprising that Willie Walsh, the CEO of IAG, which announced a €2.75 billion rights issue, indicated that he doesn’t think air travel will return to pre-Covid levels until 2023. The banks too face a challenging environment and the ECB this week asked that banks not pay dividends or buy back shares at least until January, three months longer than initially indicated, and expects banks “to exercise extreme moderation on variable remuneration to conserve capital in crisis”. It will review its position in Q4, as will the Bank of England, which indicated that it would conduct a review of any plans by the UK’s biggest banks to pay dividends.
The S&P 500 rose on the week driven by the strong quarterly results from the tech giants, which will probably lead to even closer scrutiny from politicians and regulators looking at anti-competitive behaviour. In contrast, the FTSE 100 fell as quarterly results from the blue chips reflected the difficulties facing old economy stocks across sectors such as banks and oil and gas. There were some bright spots, BAE Systems reinstated its dividend and the miners are seeing good levels of demand across different commodities.
Solid quarterly numbers from the big tech stocks were not enough to keep markets ticking higher, but, after such a euphoric rally in markets since March, it perhaps not surprising that sellers have started to outweigh the buyers. Apart from the speed of the rise, there are plenty of factors to make investors nervous. First, there are growing U.S.- China tensions, which took a turn for the worse with the tit-for-tat closing of consulates in Houston and Chengdu.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 24 July 2020
27 July, 2020 | GraniteShares
Solid quarterly numbers from the big tech stocks were not enough to keep markets ticking higher, but, after such a euphoric rally in markets since March, it perhaps not surprising that sellers have started to outweigh the buyers. Apart from the speed of the rise, there are plenty of factors to make investors nervous. First, there are growing U.S.- China tensions, which took a turn for the worse with the tit-for-tat closing of consulates in Houston and Chengdu.
Investors hit the pause button on tech stocks… Netflix disappoints.
Some of the challenges ahead were highlighted in Q2 results from the U.S. banks, which announced significant provisions for loan losses. U.S. retail sales rose 7.5% month-on-month in June, however analysts are concerned that the end of the Federal $600 per week boost for the unemployed later this month will dampen consumer spending. Spending will also be affected by the possibility of renewed lockdowns, Johns Hopkins University reported a growing number of confirmed coronavirus cases, with Texas hitting 317.8k and Florida 327.2k on 17 July, up 127% and 166% respectively since 26 June. The UK’s OBR indicated that the UK is on track to record a fall in output of more than 10% in 2020. Looking at the government’s financing requirements, in its central scenario, the OBR estimates the government will need to raise around £1.4 trillion over the next five years or 12 per cent of cumulative GDP. Companies, too, are also borrowing record amounts, see chart below.
Both the FTSE 100 and S&P 500 were up on the week, in the case of the latter, the usual suspects did not drive performance. Netflix’s share price fell sharply after reported Q2 earnings of $1.59 versus guidance of $1.81 and expectations for subscriber growth of only 2.5 million in Q3. With the exception of Apple, the other tech-related stocks tracked by ETPs also fell over the week, which started on Monday with some technical analysts getting signals of a potential reversal in the Nasdaq. In UK markets, optimism around the Oxford vaccine helped take AstraZeneca above £90. The miners and oil majors were also in demand. Rolls-Royce and the banks were the laggards.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 17 July 2020
20 July, 2020 | GraniteShares
Investors hit the pause button on tech stocks… Netflix disappoints.
Some of the challenges ahead were highlighted in Q2 results from the U.S. banks, which announced significant provisions for loan losses. U.S. retail sales rose 7.5% month-on-month in June, however analysts are concerned that the end of the Federal $600 per week boost for the unemployed later this month will dampen consumer spending. Spending will also be affected by the possibility of renewed lockdowns, Johns Hopkins University reported a growing number of confirmed coronavirus cases, with Texas hitting 317.8k and Florida 327.2k on 17 July, up 127% and 166% respectively since 26 June. The UK’s OBR indicated that the UK is on track to record a fall in output of more than 10% in 2020. Looking at the government’s financing requirements, in its central scenario, the OBR estimates the government will need to raise around £1.4 trillion over the next five years or 12 per cent of cumulative GDP. Companies, too, are also borrowing record amounts, see chart below.
Both the FTSE 100 and S&P 500 were up on the week, in the case of the latter, the usual suspects did not drive performance. Netflix’s share price fell sharply after reported Q2 earnings of $1.59 versus guidance of $1.81 and expectations for subscriber growth of only 2.5 million in Q3. With the exception of Apple, the other tech-related stocks tracked by ETPs also fell over the week, which started on Monday with some technical analysts getting signals of a potential reversal in the Nasdaq. In UK markets, optimism around the Oxford vaccine helped take AstraZeneca above £90. The miners and oil majors were also in demand. Rolls-Royce and the banks were the laggards.
Put on your red pants Elon, next stop S&P 500?
The S&P 500 rose by 1.8% over the week, the FTSE 100 was down 1%, while the VIX fell by 1.4%, closing at 27.29. With the listing of GraniteShares ETPs on U.S. tech leaders, this week’s comments are focused mostly on the U.S. The U.S. stocks tracked by GraniteShares, including Netflix and NVIDIA, continued to be among the principal drivers of index returns, while sectors such as energy, real estate and industrials were among the laggards. Tesla remains very much in the limelight, with analyst attention focusing on the quarterly results due on 22 July, expectations are of a fourth successive quarterly profit, one of the criteria for inclusion in the S&P 500, together with factors such as a market capitalisation of at least $8.2 billion and a public float of at least 50% of its shares outstanding. A suivre.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 10 July 2020
13 July, 2020 | GraniteShares
Put on your red pants Elon, next stop S&P 500?
The S&P 500 rose by 1.8% over the week, the FTSE 100 was down 1%, while the VIX fell by 1.4%, closing at 27.29. With the listing of GraniteShares ETPs on U.S. tech leaders, this week’s comments are focused mostly on the U.S. The U.S. stocks tracked by GraniteShares, including Netflix and NVIDIA, continued to be among the principal drivers of index returns, while sectors such as energy, real estate and industrials were among the laggards. Tesla remains very much in the limelight, with analyst attention focusing on the quarterly results due on 22 July, expectations are of a fourth successive quarterly profit, one of the criteria for inclusion in the S&P 500, together with factors such as a market capitalisation of at least $8.2 billion and a public float of at least 50% of its shares outstanding. A suivre.
Latest nonfarm payrolls provide another boost
The S&P 500 rose by 4% over the week, the FTSE 100 was flat, while the VIX fell by 20%, closing at 27.68. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 4.8 million in June, following May’s 2.7 million increase. Employment in leisure and hospitality rose by over 2 million. While the figure is clearly positive, analysts urged caution because the initial claims figure remains persistently high, the latest figure being over 1.4 million, and the total employment figure is still over 14.5 million less than in February. Related to all of this, Dr Anthony Fauci, a member of the White House’s Coronavirus Task Force, warned Congress on Tuesday that the U.S. could see 100,000 Covid-19 infections a day if current spikes are not contained. Elsewhere, the Chinese Caixin/Markit services PMI increased to 58.4 in June from 55.0 in May and the Bundestag authorised the Bundesbank to continue to implement the PSPP programme.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 3 July 2020
06 July, 2020 | GraniteShares
Latest nonfarm payrolls provide another boost
The S&P 500 rose by 4% over the week, the FTSE 100 was flat, while the VIX fell by 20%, closing at 27.68. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 4.8 million in June, following May’s 2.7 million increase. Employment in leisure and hospitality rose by over 2 million. While the figure is clearly positive, analysts urged caution because the initial claims figure remains persistently high, the latest figure being over 1.4 million, and the total employment figure is still over 14.5 million less than in February. Related to all of this, Dr Anthony Fauci, a member of the White House’s Coronavirus Task Force, warned Congress on Tuesday that the U.S. could see 100,000 Covid-19 infections a day if current spikes are not contained. Elsewhere, the Chinese Caixin/Markit services PMI increased to 58.4 in June from 55.0 in May and the Bundestag authorised the Bundesbank to continue to implement the PSPP programme.
Markets turn red on new tariff concerns
Over the week, the S&P 500 fell by 2.9% and the FTSE 100 by 2.1%, while the VIX fell by 1.1%, closing at 34.73. Investors were made uneasy by various red flags ranging from the initial jobless claims number in the U.S. to aerospace-related trade tensions between the EU and U.S. On Wednesday, the news broke that the U.S. is considering new tariffs on $3.1 billion of exports from France, Germany, Spain and the UK. The dispute relates to illegal subsidies to Airbus, and the EU is seeking authorisation from the WTO to impose tariffs on U.S. goods in retaliation for the U.S. illegal subsidies to Boeing. The risk of a tit-for-tat trade dispute is not good for business or markets when trade is already under pressure (see chart). The continued surge in new coronavirus cases in the U.S. is also of concern. This is leading to policy reversals, on Friday, for example, Texas Governor, Greg Abbott, and Florida Governor, Ron DeSantis, closed bars, and in Texas restaurant capacity was scaled back to 50%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 26 June 2020
29 June, 2020 | GraniteShares
Markets turn red on new tariff concerns
Over the week, the S&P 500 fell by 2.9% and the FTSE 100 by 2.1%, while the VIX fell by 1.1%, closing at 34.73. Investors were made uneasy by various red flags ranging from the initial jobless claims number in the U.S. to aerospace-related trade tensions between the EU and U.S. On Wednesday, the news broke that the U.S. is considering new tariffs on $3.1 billion of exports from France, Germany, Spain and the UK. The dispute relates to illegal subsidies to Airbus, and the EU is seeking authorisation from the WTO to impose tariffs on U.S. goods in retaliation for the U.S. illegal subsidies to Boeing. The risk of a tit-for-tat trade dispute is not good for business or markets when trade is already under pressure (see chart). The continued surge in new coronavirus cases in the U.S. is also of concern. This is leading to policy reversals, on Friday, for example, Texas Governor, Greg Abbott, and Florida Governor, Ron DeSantis, closed bars, and in Texas restaurant capacity was scaled back to 50%.
Markets going on a summer holiday despite growing debt pile
The Bank of England announced that it is increasing the target stock of purchased UK government bonds by an additional £100 bn, to take the total asset purchases to £745 bn. It also indicated, “The emerging evidence suggests that the fall in global and UK GDP in 2020 Q2 will be less severe than set out in the May Report.” Meanwhile, the ONS released May’s public sector finance figures, which showed that debt (public sector net debt ex public sector banks) was 100.9% of GDP at the end of May, the first time it has exceeded that level since March 1963*. Meanwhile, there is evidence that Covid-19 is far from beaten, Arizona, Florida, South Carolina and Texas were among the states that saw record increases in new coronavirus infections, while in Beijing there was a spike in new cases. Against this backdrop, investors focused on the positives, such as the 17.7% monthly increase in U.S. retail sales. Over the week, the S&P 500 rose by 1.9% and the FTSE 100 by 3%, while the VIX fell by 2.7%, closing at 35.12.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 19 June 2020
21 June, 2020 | GraniteShares
Markets going on a summer holiday despite growing debt pile
The Bank of England announced that it is increasing the target stock of purchased UK government bonds by an additional £100 bn, to take the total asset purchases to £745 bn. It also indicated, “The emerging evidence suggests that the fall in global and UK GDP in 2020 Q2 will be less severe than set out in the May Report.” Meanwhile, the ONS released May’s public sector finance figures, which showed that debt (public sector net debt ex public sector banks) was 100.9% of GDP at the end of May, the first time it has exceeded that level since March 1963*. Meanwhile, there is evidence that Covid-19 is far from beaten, Arizona, Florida, South Carolina and Texas were among the states that saw record increases in new coronavirus infections, while in Beijing there was a spike in new cases. Against this backdrop, investors focused on the positives, such as the 17.7% monthly increase in U.S. retail sales. Over the week, the S&P 500 rose by 1.9% and the FTSE 100 by 3%, while the VIX fell by 2.7%, closing at 35.12.
Back on the big dipper
Suspect number one for the market weakness: a dovish Fed, which indicated that rates are on hold until the end of 2021. It is projecting a GDP fall of 6.5% for 2020 and an unemployment rate of 9.3% in the fourth quarter. Jerome Powell highlighted that “…you could see significant job growth in -- in coming months, as people return to their jobs, but you're still going to face probably an extended period where it will be difficult for many people to find work”. Powell’s comments at the press conference elicited a tweet from the White House, which started “The Federal Reserve is wrong so often. I see the numbers also, and do MUCH better than they do. We will have a very good Third Quarter, a great Fourth Quarter, and one of our best ever years in 2021….”
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 12 June 2020
15 June, 2020 | GraniteShares
Back on the big dipper
Suspect number one for the market weakness: a dovish Fed, which indicated that rates are on hold until the end of 2021. It is projecting a GDP fall of 6.5% for 2020 and an unemployment rate of 9.3% in the fourth quarter. Jerome Powell highlighted that “…you could see significant job growth in -- in coming months, as people return to their jobs, but you're still going to face probably an extended period where it will be difficult for many people to find work”. Powell’s comments at the press conference elicited a tweet from the White House, which started “The Federal Reserve is wrong so often. I see the numbers also, and do MUCH better than they do. We will have a very good Third Quarter, a great Fourth Quarter, and one of our best ever years in 2021….”
Gobsmacked!
Friday’s U.S. payrolls number defied all predictions with an increase in jobs of 2.5 million versus a consensus forecast for a fall of 8 million. It is an indication that the U.S. economy may be recovering faster than expected, albeit there are still 15.2 million more people unemployed than in February. In Europe, the ECB on Thursday increased the PEPP by €600bn rather than predicted €500bn. All good for risk assets, which ended the week on a charge: the FTSE-100 closed at 6484.3, a weekly rise of 6.7%, and the S&P500 at 3191.5, a rise of 4.8%. OPEC+ reached a preliminary agreement to prolong the production cuts, which was bullish for oil with Brent closing the week at $41.97 and WTI at $38.95, levels last seen at the beginning of March. Perish the thought of selling in May…
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 5 June 2020
08 June, 2020 | GraniteShares
Gobsmacked!
Friday’s U.S. payrolls number defied all predictions with an increase in jobs of 2.5 million versus a consensus forecast for a fall of 8 million. It is an indication that the U.S. economy may be recovering faster than expected, albeit there are still 15.2 million more people unemployed than in February. In Europe, the ECB on Thursday increased the PEPP by €600bn rather than predicted €500bn. All good for risk assets, which ended the week on a charge: the FTSE-100 closed at 6484.3, a weekly rise of 6.7%, and the S&P500 at 3191.5, a rise of 4.8%. OPEC+ reached a preliminary agreement to prolong the production cuts, which was bullish for oil with Brent closing the week at $41.97 and WTI at $38.95, levels last seen at the beginning of March. Perish the thought of selling in May…
Markets raring to go, economic data still on the brake pedal
The FTSE100 ended the week up over 3% and started the week with a 4.3% rise on Monday which was largely sentiment driven as investors look ahead to the opening up of economies. Broad sentiment was helped by remarks from Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, on CBS’s “60 Minutes” who said people should not “bet against the American economy,” and “there’s no limit to what we can do.”
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 22 May 2020
26 May, 2020 | GraniteShares
Markets raring to go, economic data still on the brake pedal
The FTSE100 ended the week up over 3% and started the week with a 4.3% rise on Monday which was largely sentiment driven as investors look ahead to the opening up of economies. Broad sentiment was helped by remarks from Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, on CBS’s “60 Minutes” who said people should not “bet against the American economy,” and “there’s no limit to what we can do.”
The chart for U.S. retail sales below tells the story and reflects what is happening globally. The consumer is reining in discretionary expenditure. It is hardly surprising in the context of the prevailing uncertainty, and as J-S Jacques, Rio Tinto’s CEO, highlighted in his Q&A at the Bank of America Metals Conference on 12 May, that while in China the industrial side was strong “the service economy, the leisure part of the economy, is under pressure and will take time to return to full activity.”
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 15 May 2020
18 May, 2020 | GraniteShares
The chart for U.S. retail sales below tells the story and reflects what is happening globally. The consumer is reining in discretionary expenditure. It is hardly surprising in the context of the prevailing uncertainty, and as J-S Jacques, Rio Tinto’s CEO, highlighted in his Q&A at the Bank of America Metals Conference on 12 May, that while in China the industrial side was strong “the service economy, the leisure part of the economy, is under pressure and will take time to return to full activity.”
More than 30 million Americans have filed for unemployment benefits in the past six weeks. James Knightley at ING suggests that we are on course for an unemployment rate of 22% but as he highlights a third of Americans between the age of 18-65 are not classified as employed or unemployed, which means that less than half working age Americans may be earning a wage next month. No wonder those facing elections are keen to get the economy started again regardless of any other costs
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 1 May 2020
04 May, 2020 | GraniteShares
More than 30 million Americans have filed for unemployment benefits in the past six weeks. James Knightley at ING suggests that we are on course for an unemployment rate of 22% but as he highlights a third of Americans between the age of 18-65 are not classified as employed or unemployed, which means that less than half working age Americans may be earning a wage next month. No wonder those facing elections are keen to get the economy started again regardless of any other costs
The chart below tells the story. WTI May futures moved into negative territory ahead of expiry as lack of storage capacity meant that holders of futures had to pay offload their exposure. Will it happen again? The CME isn’t ruling it out, announcing on 21 April that it will “switch the options pricing and valuation model to Bachelier to accommodate negative prices in the underlying futures.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 24 April 2020
27 April, 2020 | GraniteShares
The chart below tells the story. WTI May futures moved into negative territory ahead of expiry as lack of storage capacity meant that holders of futures had to pay offload their exposure. Will it happen again? The CME isn’t ruling it out, announcing on 21 April that it will “switch the options pricing and valuation model to Bachelier to accommodate negative prices in the underlying futures.
The speed of slowdown is forcing governments and central banks into quick and decisive active. On 9 April, the US Treasury and Federal Reserve announced new and expanded lending programmes to provide up to $2.3 trillion in financing to support workers, businesses and municipalities impacted by the pandemic.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 9 April 2020
13 April, 2020 | GraniteShares
The speed of slowdown is forcing governments and central banks into quick and decisive active. On 9 April, the US Treasury and Federal Reserve announced new and expanded lending programmes to provide up to $2.3 trillion in financing to support workers, businesses and municipalities impacted by the pandemic.
The reality check of the impact of the coronavirus on the economy started to hit home as the US data showed record weekly rise in new jobless claims, the California figure of 858,000 topping the all-time high for the US. In Europe, the Eurozone Markit PMI figures, published on Friday, paint a picture of savage downturn, falling from 51.6 in February to a record low of 27.9, while Friday’s UK PMI figures for March revealed the worst decline on record.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 3 April 2020
06 April, 2020 | GraniteShares
The reality check of the impact of the coronavirus on the economy started to hit home as the US data showed record weekly rise in new jobless claims, the California figure of 858,000 topping the all-time high for the US. In Europe, the Eurozone Markit PMI figures, published on Friday, paint a picture of savage downturn, falling from 51.6 in February to a record low of 27.9, while Friday’s UK PMI figures for March revealed the worst decline on record.
A strong week for U.S. stock markets with all three major indexes increasing north of 3.5% and the
S&P 500 Index finishing the week at a record high. Stock markets rose sharply Monday and Tuesday,
rallying in relief to positive news regarding the seriousness of the omicron variant and the
effectiveness of existing vaccines against it. Thursday was the only down day for stock markets
perhaps due to investor trepidation before Friday’s CPI release and despite lower-than-expected
jobless claims. Friday’s 40-year-high CPI release, coming in slightly above expectations, moved stock
markets even higher as investor concerns of “even higher inflation” and a much more aggressive Fed
were allayed. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate also moved higher on the week but closed off its
intraweek high reached Wednesday. Most of the increase in the 10-year Treasury rate was due to
rising real rates though inflation expectations also moved higher. For the week, the S&P 500 Index
increased 3.8% to 4,712.02, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 3.6% to 15,630.60, the Dow Jones
Industrial Average gained 4.0% to 35,971.98, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 12bps to
1.48% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) was practically
unchanged.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 10 Dec 2021
01 January, 0001 | GraniteShares
A strong week for U.S. stock markets with all three major indexes increasing north of 3.5% and the
S&P 500 Index finishing the week at a record high. Stock markets rose sharply Monday and Tuesday,
rallying in relief to positive news regarding the seriousness of the omicron variant and the
effectiveness of existing vaccines against it. Thursday was the only down day for stock markets
perhaps due to investor trepidation before Friday’s CPI release and despite lower-than-expected
jobless claims. Friday’s 40-year-high CPI release, coming in slightly above expectations, moved stock
markets even higher as investor concerns of “even higher inflation” and a much more aggressive Fed
were allayed. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate also moved higher on the week but closed off its
intraweek high reached Wednesday. Most of the increase in the 10-year Treasury rate was due to
rising real rates though inflation expectations also moved higher. For the week, the S&P 500 Index
increased 3.8% to 4,712.02, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 3.6% to 15,630.60, the Dow Jones
Industrial Average gained 4.0% to 35,971.98, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 12bps to
1.48% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) was practically
unchanged.
