Researches By 3ldo
Earning season is the time of the year when publicly traded companies release their quarterly or annual earnings by the end of each quarter. These reports by the companies include information about the earnings, revenue and expenses. Earnings reports give investors access to the company’s actual performance from the previous three months. There are rules regarding the deadlines by which the companies need to file and report their earnings. Companies can schedule the release on a day that benefits them.
Topic: Financials , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Investment Cases , Articles
Everything you need to know about Earnings Season
10 November, 2022 | GraniteShares
Earning season is the time of the year when publicly traded companies release their quarterly or annual earnings by the end of each quarter. These reports by the companies include information about the earnings, revenue and expenses. Earnings reports give investors access to the company’s actual performance from the previous three months. There are rules regarding the deadlines by which the companies need to file and report their earnings. Companies can schedule the release on a day that benefits them.
Major stock market indexes fell last week as investors waited apprehensively for Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision and Friday’s employment report with concerns of an ever-aggressive Fed pushing stock prices lower every single day last week except for Friday. Wednesday’s as-expected FOMC decision raising rates 75bs initially drove stock markets higher as FOMC announcement language appeared to suggest the Fed was likely to adopt a slower pace of increases to discern and examine the effects of its previous rate hikes. Hopes of a “Fed pivot”, however, were severely diminished following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at his press conference held shortly after the rate hike announcement. Powell’s comments that the Fed had “a ways to go” before pausing rate hikes reversed index gains to sharp losses with the Nasdaq Composite Index faring the worst, finishing Wednesday down 3.4%. Stock markets continued lower Thursday, further processing Wednesday’s events and perhaps also affected by the BoE decision to raise rate 75bps. Friday’s employment report showing larger-than-expected gains in jobs but a higher-than-expected unemployment rate left markets somewhat uncertain with stock indexes fluctuating between losses and gains before finally ending higher on the day, the only up-day of the week. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index fell 3.3% to 3,770.55, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased dropped 5.6% to 10,465.25, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 1.4% to 32,404.80, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 15bps to 4.16% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) was practically unchanged
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 04 November 2022
08 November, 2022 | GraniteShares
Major stock market indexes fell last week as investors waited apprehensively for Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision and Friday’s employment report with concerns of an ever-aggressive Fed pushing stock prices lower every single day last week except for Friday. Wednesday’s as-expected FOMC decision raising rates 75bs initially drove stock markets higher as FOMC announcement language appeared to suggest the Fed was likely to adopt a slower pace of increases to discern and examine the effects of its previous rate hikes. Hopes of a “Fed pivot”, however, were severely diminished following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at his press conference held shortly after the rate hike announcement. Powell’s comments that the Fed had “a ways to go” before pausing rate hikes reversed index gains to sharp losses with the Nasdaq Composite Index faring the worst, finishing Wednesday down 3.4%. Stock markets continued lower Thursday, further processing Wednesday’s events and perhaps also affected by the BoE decision to raise rate 75bps. Friday’s employment report showing larger-than-expected gains in jobs but a higher-than-expected unemployment rate left markets somewhat uncertain with stock indexes fluctuating between losses and gains before finally ending higher on the day, the only up-day of the week. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index fell 3.3% to 3,770.55, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased dropped 5.6% to 10,465.25, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 1.4% to 32,404.80, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 15bps to 4.16% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) was practically unchanged
ETPs are exchange-listed investment vehicles. They are the type of securities that are designed to track the underlying security, an index, or other financial instruments. ETPs are just like stocks trade on the stock exchange i.e., their prices fluctuate on a day-to-day basis and intraday. These instruments are considered a low-cost alternative to mutual funds as well as actively managed funds. ETPs can be of a particular stock, indexes like NYSE ETPs, sector-specific indexes, or commodities like gold ETPs, and currencies.
Topic: Technology
Publication Type: Education , Articles , ETP and Industry
All about Exchange Traded Products (ETPs)
04 July, 2022 | GraniteShares
ETPs are exchange-listed investment vehicles. They are the type of securities that are designed to track the underlying security, an index, or other financial instruments. ETPs are just like stocks trade on the stock exchange i.e., their prices fluctuate on a day-to-day basis and intraday. These instruments are considered a low-cost alternative to mutual funds as well as actively managed funds. ETPs can be of a particular stock, indexes like NYSE ETPs, sector-specific indexes, or commodities like gold ETPs, and currencies.
U.S. stock markets rallied strongly through Wednesday, buoyed by strong tech-stock earnings, with
the Nasdaq Composite Index climbing just under 5%. Wednesday’s after-market Meta Platforms
earnings report all but reversed those gains Thursday, with Meta’s stock price plunging 26% and
driving the Nasdaq Composite Index 3.7% lower. Those losses, in turn, were partially reversed Friday
following Amazon’s after-market earnings report Thursday, with Amazon’s stock price surging just
under 14% and the Nasdaq Composite Index increasing 1.6%. Friday’s much stronger-than-expected
Non-Farm Payroll Report, along with the BoE’s rate increase Thursday and growing expectations the
ECB will tighten monetary policy, drove 10-year U.S. Treasury rates 14bps higher to finish the week
above 1.9%. The U.S. dollar, however, weakened significantly over the week, partly as result of the
BoE tightening actions. The Nasdaq Composite Index outperformed both the S&P 500 Index and the
Dow Jones Industrial Average as investors favoured growth/tech stocks over value/cyclical stocks.
At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index gained 1.6% to 4,500.54, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.4%
to 14,098.01, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.7% to 35,089.15, the 10-year U.S.
Treasury rate rose 14bp to 1.92% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY)
weakened 1.8%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 04 Feb 2022
08 February, 2022 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets rallied strongly through Wednesday, buoyed by strong tech-stock earnings, with
the Nasdaq Composite Index climbing just under 5%. Wednesday’s after-market Meta Platforms
earnings report all but reversed those gains Thursday, with Meta’s stock price plunging 26% and
driving the Nasdaq Composite Index 3.7% lower. Those losses, in turn, were partially reversed Friday
following Amazon’s after-market earnings report Thursday, with Amazon’s stock price surging just
under 14% and the Nasdaq Composite Index increasing 1.6%. Friday’s much stronger-than-expected
Non-Farm Payroll Report, along with the BoE’s rate increase Thursday and growing expectations the
ECB will tighten monetary policy, drove 10-year U.S. Treasury rates 14bps higher to finish the week
above 1.9%. The U.S. dollar, however, weakened significantly over the week, partly as result of the
BoE tightening actions. The Nasdaq Composite Index outperformed both the S&P 500 Index and the
Dow Jones Industrial Average as investors favoured growth/tech stocks over value/cyclical stocks.
At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index gained 1.6% to 4,500.54, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.4%
to 14,098.01, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.7% to 35,089.15, the 10-year U.S.
Treasury rate rose 14bp to 1.92% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY)
weakened 1.8%.
U.S. stock markets powered higher again last week with all 3 major indexes setting record highs.
While strong earnings and economic reports helped move stock markets higher, Wednesday’s FOMC
announcement also contributed to this week’s increase. The Fed, as expected, announced it would
begin reducing its $120 billion/month bond buyback program by $15 billion/month beginning this
month (subject to changes if needed) but also indicated the timing of rate increases was uncertain
given the Fed’s view its full-employment goals have not been reached, increasing sentiment the Fed
would maintain its easy-money policies longer than expected. Friday’s October Non-Farm Payroll
report, stronger than expected with respect to jobs and the unemployment rate, seemingly had
little effect on markets with investor uncertainty regarding the strength of future job gains and an
unchanged labour participation rate overriding the headline strength of the report. The 10-year U.S.
Treasury rate, reflecting this sentiment, ended the week 11bps lower with almost all the decrease
coming from falling 10-year real rates (down 8bps over the week). The U.S. dollar, stronger on the
week, rose on the back of Thursday’s BoE announcement leaving rates unchanged. At week’s end,
the S&P 500 Index rose 2.0% to 4,697.53, the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 3.0% to 15,971.60,
the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.4% to 36,329.07, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell
11bps to 1.45% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened
0.2%
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 05 Nov 2021
09 November, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets powered higher again last week with all 3 major indexes setting record highs.
While strong earnings and economic reports helped move stock markets higher, Wednesday’s FOMC
announcement also contributed to this week’s increase. The Fed, as expected, announced it would
begin reducing its $120 billion/month bond buyback program by $15 billion/month beginning this
month (subject to changes if needed) but also indicated the timing of rate increases was uncertain
given the Fed’s view its full-employment goals have not been reached, increasing sentiment the Fed
would maintain its easy-money policies longer than expected. Friday’s October Non-Farm Payroll
report, stronger than expected with respect to jobs and the unemployment rate, seemingly had
little effect on markets with investor uncertainty regarding the strength of future job gains and an
unchanged labour participation rate overriding the headline strength of the report. The 10-year U.S.
Treasury rate, reflecting this sentiment, ended the week 11bps lower with almost all the decrease
coming from falling 10-year real rates (down 8bps over the week). The U.S. dollar, stronger on the
week, rose on the back of Thursday’s BoE announcement leaving rates unchanged. At week’s end,
the S&P 500 Index rose 2.0% to 4,697.53, the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 3.0% to 15,971.60,
the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.4% to 36,329.07, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell
11bps to 1.45% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened
0.2%
Another strong week for U.S. stock markets with all three major indexes posting record levels.
Strong earnings reports again were the primary factor moving markets higher despite disappointing
Apple and Amazon earning releases and a weaker-than-expected increase in GDP. All three major
stock indexes moved higher almost every day last week, only pausing Wednesday. Thursday’s
weaker-than-expected GDP release (along with Apple’s and Amazon’s disappointing earnings
reports) and Friday’s as-expected PCE price index release highlighted concerns surrounding
persistently high inflation caused by input/labor shortages and production and shipping bottlenecks
and slowing economic activity. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates fell 8bps over the week, perhaps
reflecting the growing conviction the Fed will begin moderately tightening monetary policy resulting
in slowing economic growth. The U.S dollar, weaker by 0.3% through Thursday, strengthened over
0.8% Friday following the release of the Employment Cost Index and Personal Income and Outlays
reports, perhaps reflecting the same conviction. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index climbed 1.3% to
4,605.38, the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 2.7% to 15,498.40, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
increased 0.4% to 35,819.59, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 8bps to 1.56% and the U.S. dollar (as
measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.5%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 29 Oct 2021
01 November, 2021 | GraniteShares
Another strong week for U.S. stock markets with all three major indexes posting record levels.
Strong earnings reports again were the primary factor moving markets higher despite disappointing
Apple and Amazon earning releases and a weaker-than-expected increase in GDP. All three major
stock indexes moved higher almost every day last week, only pausing Wednesday. Thursday’s
weaker-than-expected GDP release (along with Apple’s and Amazon’s disappointing earnings
reports) and Friday’s as-expected PCE price index release highlighted concerns surrounding
persistently high inflation caused by input/labor shortages and production and shipping bottlenecks
and slowing economic activity. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates fell 8bps over the week, perhaps
reflecting the growing conviction the Fed will begin moderately tightening monetary policy resulting
in slowing economic growth. The U.S dollar, weaker by 0.3% through Thursday, strengthened over
0.8% Friday following the release of the Employment Cost Index and Personal Income and Outlays
reports, perhaps reflecting the same conviction. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index climbed 1.3% to
4,605.38, the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 2.7% to 15,498.40, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
increased 0.4% to 35,819.59, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 8bps to 1.56% and the U.S. dollar (as
measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.5%.
U.S. stock markets moved higher last week with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at a record
high and the S&P 500 Index finishing slightly off its record high set Thursday. Strong earnings
reports were the primary driver behind last week’s gains, overcoming concerns of lower profits due
to rising input and labour costs and production and shipping bottlenecks. Lower-than-expected
jobless claims, reported Thursday, also helped move markets higher. Three notable earnings misses
– Intel, Snap and IBM – helped push the Nasdaq Composite Index and the S&P 500 Index lower
Friday though analysts mostly considered these misses as outliers either because they were
considered exceptions (IBM) or because of the unique, specific nature of the misses (Snap, Intel).
Better-than-expected earnings reports, however, did not alleviate concerns of persistent inflation,
driving the 10-year U.S.Treasury rate 12bps higher through Thursday. The rate fell almost 6bps
Friday, likely reacting to weaker-than-expected earnings reports. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index
rose 1.6% to 4,544.90, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 1.3% to 15,090.20, the Dow Jones
Industrial Average gained 1.1% to 35,677.02, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 7bps to 1.64% and
the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.3%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 22 Oct 2021
26 October, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets moved higher last week with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at a record
high and the S&P 500 Index finishing slightly off its record high set Thursday. Strong earnings
reports were the primary driver behind last week’s gains, overcoming concerns of lower profits due
to rising input and labour costs and production and shipping bottlenecks. Lower-than-expected
jobless claims, reported Thursday, also helped move markets higher. Three notable earnings misses
– Intel, Snap and IBM – helped push the Nasdaq Composite Index and the S&P 500 Index lower
Friday though analysts mostly considered these misses as outliers either because they were
considered exceptions (IBM) or because of the unique, specific nature of the misses (Snap, Intel).
Better-than-expected earnings reports, however, did not alleviate concerns of persistent inflation,
driving the 10-year U.S.Treasury rate 12bps higher through Thursday. The rate fell almost 6bps
Friday, likely reacting to weaker-than-expected earnings reports. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index
rose 1.6% to 4,544.90, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 1.3% to 15,090.20, the Dow Jones
Industrial Average gained 1.1% to 35,677.02, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 7bps to 1.64% and
the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.3%.
U.S. stock markets began the week on uneasy terms with Evergrande contagion concerns and FOMC
announcement anxiety pushing all three major indexes about 2% lower. U.S stock markets,
stagnating on Tuesday, moved higher the rest of the week, fortified by a somewhat-as-exprected
FOMC announcement and optimism Evergrande would avoid immediate default. Wednesday’s
FOMC announcement indicated the Fed would likely begin tapering November (with bond buybacks
to be eliminated by June next year) with at least one rate hike in 2022 followed by another 2-3 hikes
in 2023. The Fed’s willingness to slightly and gradually tighten its ultra-easy monetary policy
signalled it believed the U.S. economy was strong and at the same time eased investor concerns of
possible fallout from Fed inaction. Interestingly, the 10-year U.S Treasury rate, down 6bps through
Wednesday, jumped 13bps higher Thursday and another 2bp Friday perhaps as a delayed reaction
to the FOMC announcement and perhaps as a result of lessened Evergrande contagion fears. For the
week, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.5% to 4,455.48, the Nasdaq Composite Index was almost unchanged
at 15,047.70, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.6% to 34,797.60, the 10-year U.S.
Treasury rate increased 9bps to 1.45% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index -
DXY) strengthened 0.1% percent.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 24 Sep 2021
27 September, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets began the week on uneasy terms with Evergrande contagion concerns and FOMC
announcement anxiety pushing all three major indexes about 2% lower. U.S stock markets,
stagnating on Tuesday, moved higher the rest of the week, fortified by a somewhat-as-exprected
FOMC announcement and optimism Evergrande would avoid immediate default. Wednesday’s
FOMC announcement indicated the Fed would likely begin tapering November (with bond buybacks
to be eliminated by June next year) with at least one rate hike in 2022 followed by another 2-3 hikes
in 2023. The Fed’s willingness to slightly and gradually tighten its ultra-easy monetary policy
signalled it believed the U.S. economy was strong and at the same time eased investor concerns of
possible fallout from Fed inaction. Interestingly, the 10-year U.S Treasury rate, down 6bps through
Wednesday, jumped 13bps higher Thursday and another 2bp Friday perhaps as a delayed reaction
to the FOMC announcement and perhaps as a result of lessened Evergrande contagion fears. For the
week, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.5% to 4,455.48, the Nasdaq Composite Index was almost unchanged
at 15,047.70, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.6% to 34,797.60, the 10-year U.S.
Treasury rate increased 9bps to 1.45% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index -
DXY) strengthened 0.1% percent.
U.S. stock markets moved higher last week buoyed by strong earnings reports, as- or better-thanexpected economic data and by temperate comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. All three
major U.S. stock indexes rose every day but Thursday last week, faltering on Thursday in anticipation
of Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech Friday morning and on news of the Kabul airport attack.
Both the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at record highs. Fed
Chairman Jerome Powell’s prepared remarks on Friday confirmed the Fed wanted to begin tapering
its Treasury note and mortgage-backed bond buyback program before year end but also qualified
those comments with a need for careful and moderate implementation citing concerns of
“temporary fluctuations in inflation”. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate finished the week higher but
well off its Thursday’s high of 1.36%, falling over 4bps after Jerome Powell’s comments. Similarly,
the U.S. dollar, weaker by ½ percent through Thursday, weakened almost another ½ percent Friday.
For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 1.5% to 4,509.37, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.8%
to 15,129.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.0% closing at 35,454.81, the 10-year U.S.
Treasury rate increased 5bps to 1.31% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index
- DXY) weakened 0.9% percent.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 27 Aug 2021
30 August, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets moved higher last week buoyed by strong earnings reports, as- or better-thanexpected economic data and by temperate comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. All three
major U.S. stock indexes rose every day but Thursday last week, faltering on Thursday in anticipation
of Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech Friday morning and on news of the Kabul airport attack.
Both the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at record highs. Fed
Chairman Jerome Powell’s prepared remarks on Friday confirmed the Fed wanted to begin tapering
its Treasury note and mortgage-backed bond buyback program before year end but also qualified
those comments with a need for careful and moderate implementation citing concerns of
“temporary fluctuations in inflation”. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate finished the week higher but
well off its Thursday’s high of 1.36%, falling over 4bps after Jerome Powell’s comments. Similarly,
the U.S. dollar, weaker by ½ percent through Thursday, weakened almost another ½ percent Friday.
For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 1.5% to 4,509.37, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.8%
to 15,129.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.0% closing at 35,454.81, the 10-year U.S.
Treasury rate increased 5bps to 1.31% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index
- DXY) weakened 0.9% percent.
Slowing U.S and Chinese growth fears, Afghanistan-related geopolitical and Delta variant concerns
and Fed minutes increasing expectations the Fed may taper asset purchases before the end of this
year pushed U.S. stock markets lower last week. All three major stock indexes moved higher Friday,
gaining between ¾ percent and over 1 percent, buoyed by strong earnings reports and amid
investor re-thinking of Fed taper timing. The U.S. dollar strengthened over 1 percent while the 10-
year U.S. Treasury rate fell 4bps, perhaps reflecting expectations the Fed will tighten monetary
policy sooner than later resulting in slower economic growth going forward. For the week, the S&P
500 Index decreased 0.6% to 4,441.67, the Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 0.7% to 14,714.66,
the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.1% to 35,120.08, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate decreased
4bps to 1.26% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened
1.1% percent.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
The Long and Short of it, week ending 20 Aug 2021
23 August, 2021 | GraniteShares
Slowing U.S and Chinese growth fears, Afghanistan-related geopolitical and Delta variant concerns
and Fed minutes increasing expectations the Fed may taper asset purchases before the end of this
year pushed U.S. stock markets lower last week. All three major stock indexes moved higher Friday,
gaining between ¾ percent and over 1 percent, buoyed by strong earnings reports and amid
investor re-thinking of Fed taper timing. The U.S. dollar strengthened over 1 percent while the 10-
year U.S. Treasury rate fell 4bps, perhaps reflecting expectations the Fed will tighten monetary
policy sooner than later resulting in slower economic growth going forward. For the week, the S&P
500 Index decreased 0.6% to 4,441.67, the Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 0.7% to 14,714.66,
the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.1% to 35,120.08, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate decreased
4bps to 1.26% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened
1.1% percent.
U.S. stock markets moved higher again last week with both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and
the S&P 500 Index posting another set of record highs. Senate passage of a $1 trillion infrastructure
bill Tuesday and Wednesday’s CPI release showing high YoY gains but slowing MoM gains helped
move stock prices higher. Markets all but ignored Thursday’s record high PPI release and Friday’s
much lower-than-expected consumer sentiment reading with all three major indexes moving higher
the last two days of the week. The U.S. dollar, stronger through Thursday, weakened substantially
Friday following the much lower-than-expected Michigan University consumer sentiment release.
U.S. 10-year Treasury rates performed similarly, falling 7bps Friday after being up 8bps through
Thursday. For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 0.7% to 4,468.00, the Nasdaq Composite Index
decreased 0.1% to 14,822.90, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9% to 35,515.38, the 10-year
U.S. Treasury rate increased 1bps to 1.30% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar
index - DXY) weakened 0.3% percent.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 13 Aug 2021
16 August, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets moved higher again last week with both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and
the S&P 500 Index posting another set of record highs. Senate passage of a $1 trillion infrastructure
bill Tuesday and Wednesday’s CPI release showing high YoY gains but slowing MoM gains helped
move stock prices higher. Markets all but ignored Thursday’s record high PPI release and Friday’s
much lower-than-expected consumer sentiment reading with all three major indexes moving higher
the last two days of the week. The U.S. dollar, stronger through Thursday, weakened substantially
Friday following the much lower-than-expected Michigan University consumer sentiment release.
U.S. 10-year Treasury rates performed similarly, falling 7bps Friday after being up 8bps through
Thursday. For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 0.7% to 4,468.00, the Nasdaq Composite Index
decreased 0.1% to 14,822.90, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9% to 35,515.38, the 10-year
U.S. Treasury rate increased 1bps to 1.30% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar
index - DXY) weakened 0.3% percent.
A volatile week for U.S. stock markets with stock prices pushed and pulled by strong earnings and
economic reports on the one hand and the Delta variant and “peak” economy concerns on the
other. Still, all three major U.S. stock indexes ended higher on the week with both the Dow Jones
Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index setting new highs. As-expected jobless claims with
declining continuing claims, strong service purchasing manager index releases and a much betterthan-expected non-farm payroll report supported stock prices while growing Covid infections, a
weak ADP report and peak-growth concerns restrained price gains. The U.S. dollar strengthened
and the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose, both reacting mainly to the non-farm payroll report,
recouping most or all of their previous week’s losses. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index increased
0.9% to 4,436.52, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.1% to 14,835.76, the Dow Jones Industrial
Average increased 0.8% to 35,208.51, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 5bps to 1.29% and
the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.7% percent.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 06 Aug 2021
09 August, 2021 | GraniteShares
A volatile week for U.S. stock markets with stock prices pushed and pulled by strong earnings and
economic reports on the one hand and the Delta variant and “peak” economy concerns on the
other. Still, all three major U.S. stock indexes ended higher on the week with both the Dow Jones
Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index setting new highs. As-expected jobless claims with
declining continuing claims, strong service purchasing manager index releases and a much betterthan-expected non-farm payroll report supported stock prices while growing Covid infections, a
weak ADP report and peak-growth concerns restrained price gains. The U.S. dollar strengthened
and the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose, both reacting mainly to the non-farm payroll report,
recouping most or all of their previous week’s losses. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index increased
0.9% to 4,436.52, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.1% to 14,835.76, the Dow Jones Industrial
Average increased 0.8% to 35,208.51, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 5bps to 1.29% and
the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.7% percent.
U.S. stock markets fell last week reacting to a myriad of inputs including GDP and PCE releases, the
FOMC announcement and earnings reprots. Markets struggled despite strong tech-company
earnings reports Monday and Tuesday from Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple and Tesla with investors
cautious before the FOMC announcement and the release of the first-estimate of Q2 GDP.
Wednesday’s FOMC announcement, reporting no changes to monetary policy and slightly upgrading
the assessment of the U.S. economy saying economic activity had strengthened and improved but
not fully recovered, had little effect on stock prices. A worse-than-expected GDP release Thursday
actually supported stock prices with all three major indexes ending the day higher. The first
estimate of Q2 GDP growth came in at 6.5% economic growth versus expectations of 8.4%. The
lower-than-expected number was attributed to production and transportation bottlenecks and to
labor constraints. Friday’s higher-than-expected core PCE release and Amazon’s weaker-thanexpected earnings report and slowing sales growth guidance pushed U.S. stock markets ½ to ¾
percent lower on the day. The U.S. dollar weakened significantly over the week, influenced by the
combination of the Fed’s no-action mantra and growing inflation concerns. At week’s end, the S&P
500 Index decreased 0.4% to 4,395.26, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.1% to 14,672.68, the Dow
Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.4% to 34,935.47, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 5bps to
1.24% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.8% percent.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 30 July 2021
02 August, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets fell last week reacting to a myriad of inputs including GDP and PCE releases, the
FOMC announcement and earnings reprots. Markets struggled despite strong tech-company
earnings reports Monday and Tuesday from Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple and Tesla with investors
cautious before the FOMC announcement and the release of the first-estimate of Q2 GDP.
Wednesday’s FOMC announcement, reporting no changes to monetary policy and slightly upgrading
the assessment of the U.S. economy saying economic activity had strengthened and improved but
not fully recovered, had little effect on stock prices. A worse-than-expected GDP release Thursday
actually supported stock prices with all three major indexes ending the day higher. The first
estimate of Q2 GDP growth came in at 6.5% economic growth versus expectations of 8.4%. The
lower-than-expected number was attributed to production and transportation bottlenecks and to
labor constraints. Friday’s higher-than-expected core PCE release and Amazon’s weaker-thanexpected earnings report and slowing sales growth guidance pushed U.S. stock markets ½ to ¾
percent lower on the day. The U.S. dollar weakened significantly over the week, influenced by the
combination of the Fed’s no-action mantra and growing inflation concerns. At week’s end, the S&P
500 Index decreased 0.4% to 4,395.26, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.1% to 14,672.68, the Dow
Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.4% to 34,935.47, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 5bps to
1.24% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.8% percent.
Rocked by fears of a Covid-19 resurgence, driven by the spread of the Delta variant, U.S. stock
markets declined sharply Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial average falling over 2% and the 10-
year U.S. Treasury rate, reflecting investor flight to quality, fell 12bps to 1.18%. Markets,
however, rebounded strongly Tuesday and continued to recover the remainder of the week with
receding Covid fears and strong earnings reports. All three major U.S. stock indexes finished the
week at record highs and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 35,000 for the first time.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rebounded as well, rising to almost unchanged on the week. At
week’s end, the S&P 500 Index increased 2.0% to 4,411.79, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.8%
to 14,836.99, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.1% to 35,061.55, the 10-year U.S. Treasury
rate fell 1bps to 1.29% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY)
strengthened 0.2% percent
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 23 July 2021
26 July, 2021 | GraniteShares
Rocked by fears of a Covid-19 resurgence, driven by the spread of the Delta variant, U.S. stock
markets declined sharply Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial average falling over 2% and the 10-
year U.S. Treasury rate, reflecting investor flight to quality, fell 12bps to 1.18%. Markets,
however, rebounded strongly Tuesday and continued to recover the remainder of the week with
receding Covid fears and strong earnings reports. All three major U.S. stock indexes finished the
week at record highs and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 35,000 for the first time.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rebounded as well, rising to almost unchanged on the week. At
week’s end, the S&P 500 Index increased 2.0% to 4,411.79, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.8%
to 14,836.99, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.1% to 35,061.55, the 10-year U.S. Treasury
rate fell 1bps to 1.29% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY)
strengthened 0.2% percent
U.S. stock markets ended the week lower pressured by increasing concerns of fallout from rising inflation and of climbing Delta-variant Covid-19 infections. Tuesday’s CPI and Wednesday’s PPI releases surprised markets coming in at much higher-than-expected levels but intially had little effect on stock market levels while mixed earnings reports seemed to cap market increases. Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony before congress held true to the Fed’s ongoing message that rising inflation was transient, the economy, while growing, had further room for improvement and that interest rates would remain near zero for the foreseeable future. Friday’s lower-than-expected consumer sentiment report and China’s slightly lower-than-expected Q2 GDP growth tipped markets over the edge with all three major U.S. stock markets falling around ¾ percent. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 6bps over the week, driven by growing expectations the Fed would need to raise rates sooner than later resulting in slower economic growth and, as a result, lower longer-term rates. The U.S. dollar strengthened last week, reflecting similar views. For the week, the S&P 500 Index decreased 1.0% to 4,327.16, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.9% to 14,427.24, the Dow
Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.5% to 34,897.02, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 6bps to 1.30% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.6% percent.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 16 July 2021
20 July, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets ended the week lower pressured by increasing concerns of fallout from rising inflation and of climbing Delta-variant Covid-19 infections. Tuesday’s CPI and Wednesday’s PPI releases surprised markets coming in at much higher-than-expected levels but intially had little effect on stock market levels while mixed earnings reports seemed to cap market increases. Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony before congress held true to the Fed’s ongoing message that rising inflation was transient, the economy, while growing, had further room for improvement and that interest rates would remain near zero for the foreseeable future. Friday’s lower-than-expected consumer sentiment report and China’s slightly lower-than-expected Q2 GDP growth tipped markets over the edge with all three major U.S. stock markets falling around ¾ percent. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 6bps over the week, driven by growing expectations the Fed would need to raise rates sooner than later resulting in slower economic growth and, as a result, lower longer-term rates. The U.S. dollar strengthened last week, reflecting similar views. For the week, the S&P 500 Index decreased 1.0% to 4,327.16, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.9% to 14,427.24, the Dow
Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.5% to 34,897.02, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 6bps to 1.30% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.6% percent.
Despite an up-and-down week for U.S. stock markets, all three major U.S. stock indexes once again
reached record highs. Increasing concerns regarding the spread of the Delta Covid-19 variant and
the resulting effect on economic growth as well as larger-than-expected jobless claims drove both
U.S stock markets and the U.S. 10-year Treasury rate lower through Thursday. The S&P 500 Index,
for example was down almost ¾ percent through Thursday while the 10-year U.S Treasury rate was
14bps lower. Stock markets rallied strongly and 10-year U.S. Treasury rates rose Friday on no real
news but perhaps as coronavirus fears retreated and possibly as a result of the ECB’s decision to
raise their inflation target while maintaining their current historically accommodative monetary
policy At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index increased 0.4% to 4,369.55, the Nasdaq Composite Index
rose 0.4% to 14,701.92, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.2% to 34,870.16, the 10-year U.S.
Treasury rate fell 7bps to 1.36% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY)
weakened 0.1% percent.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 12 July 2021
13 July, 2021 | GraniteShares
Despite an up-and-down week for U.S. stock markets, all three major U.S. stock indexes once again
reached record highs. Increasing concerns regarding the spread of the Delta Covid-19 variant and
the resulting effect on economic growth as well as larger-than-expected jobless claims drove both
U.S stock markets and the U.S. 10-year Treasury rate lower through Thursday. The S&P 500 Index,
for example was down almost ¾ percent through Thursday while the 10-year U.S Treasury rate was
14bps lower. Stock markets rallied strongly and 10-year U.S. Treasury rates rose Friday on no real
news but perhaps as coronavirus fears retreated and possibly as a result of the ECB’s decision to
raise their inflation target while maintaining their current historically accommodative monetary
policy At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index increased 0.4% to 4,369.55, the Nasdaq Composite Index
rose 0.4% to 14,701.92, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.2% to 34,870.16, the 10-year U.S.
Treasury rate fell 7bps to 1.36% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY)
weakened 0.1% percent.
U.S stock markets rallied to all-time highs with all three major stock indexes reaching record levels.
Strong economic data as represented by Friday’s mostly better-than-expected payroll report,
Thursday’s post-pandemic low in jobless claims, climbing consumer confidence and surging home
prices combined to push stock markets higher. Also helping stock prices was President Biden’s
announcement he would sign the almost $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill if it reached his
desk. Ten-year U.S. Treasury rates fell 11bps last week pushed lower by diminished inflation
concerns (the payroll report showed decreasing wages) and increasing expectations the Fed would
not need to raise rates sooner than later. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index increased 1.7% to
4,352.34, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.9% to 14,639.33, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
gained 1.0% to 34,786.35, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 11bps to 1.43% and the U.S. dollar (as
measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.5% percent.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 2 July 2021
07 July, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S stock markets rallied to all-time highs with all three major stock indexes reaching record levels.
Strong economic data as represented by Friday’s mostly better-than-expected payroll report,
Thursday’s post-pandemic low in jobless claims, climbing consumer confidence and surging home
prices combined to push stock markets higher. Also helping stock prices was President Biden’s
announcement he would sign the almost $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill if it reached his
desk. Ten-year U.S. Treasury rates fell 11bps last week pushed lower by diminished inflation
concerns (the payroll report showed decreasing wages) and increasing expectations the Fed would
not need to raise rates sooner than later. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index increased 1.7% to
4,352.34, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.9% to 14,639.33, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
gained 1.0% to 34,786.35, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 11bps to 1.43% and the U.S. dollar (as
measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.5% percent.
U.S. stock markets rebounded strongly from the previous week’s downturn with the S&P 500 Index
closing at record highs and the Nasdaq Composite Index closing slightly lower than the record highs
it set Friday. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony Tuesday insisting current high levels of
inflation would be temporary added to NY Fed President John Williams’ comments Monday
asserting the current state of the economy did not warrant a change in Fed policy, pushed all three
major stock indexes 1.5% to 2% higher through Tuesday. President Biden’s announcement of a
bipartisan infrastructure agreement moved markets higher Thursday and Friday, with a record YoY
increase in PCE having little effect on stock prices. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates increased 9bps
reversing last week’s declines reflecting strong economic growth with resulting inflationary
pressures. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index increased 2.7% to 4,280.70, the Nasdaq Composite
Index rose 2.4% to 14,360.39, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.4% to 34,433.84, the 10-
year U.S. Treasury rate rose 9bps to 1.54% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar
index - DXY) weakened 0.5% percent.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 25 June 2021
29 June, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets rebounded strongly from the previous week’s downturn with the S&P 500 Index
closing at record highs and the Nasdaq Composite Index closing slightly lower than the record highs
it set Friday. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony Tuesday insisting current high levels of
inflation would be temporary added to NY Fed President John Williams’ comments Monday
asserting the current state of the economy did not warrant a change in Fed policy, pushed all three
major stock indexes 1.5% to 2% higher through Tuesday. President Biden’s announcement of a
bipartisan infrastructure agreement moved markets higher Thursday and Friday, with a record YoY
increase in PCE having little effect on stock prices. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates increased 9bps
reversing last week’s declines reflecting strong economic growth with resulting inflationary
pressures. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index increased 2.7% to 4,280.70, the Nasdaq Composite
Index rose 2.4% to 14,360.39, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.4% to 34,433.84, the 10-
year U.S. Treasury rate rose 9bps to 1.54% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar
index - DXY) weakened 0.5% percent.
U.S. stock markets reacted negatively to the FOMC announcement Wednesday afternoon, with all three major indexes ending lower on the week. Monday, however, saw both the S&P 500 and
Nasdaq Composite Indexes reach record highs with these levels gradually deteriorating into
Wednesday’s announcement. The big news from the Fed was its shift forward in the timing of expected rate increases (on the heels of a record YoY PPI release Tuesday) as well as an increase in its inflation expectations. Interestingly, the Fed gave no guidance regarding its buyback program.
Markets rebounded on Thursday but then sold off sharply Friday after St. Louis Fed President Jim
Bullard opined that the first rate increase would occur in 2022. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fared the worst, falling each day of the week. The Treasury yield curve flattened, with 10-year U.S.
Treasury rates declining slightly and 2-year U.S. Treasury rates rising 10bps, reflecting increased expectations of rate increases along with growing concerns of slowing economic growth. In addition,
the U.S. dollar sharply strengthened. For the week, the S&P 500 decreased 1.9% to 4,166.45, the
Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.3% to 14,030.38, the Dow Jones industrial average dropped 3.5% to
33,290.08, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 1bps to 1.45% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the
ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 1.8% percent.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 18 June 2021
21 June, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets reacted negatively to the FOMC announcement Wednesday afternoon, with all three major indexes ending lower on the week. Monday, however, saw both the S&P 500 and
Nasdaq Composite Indexes reach record highs with these levels gradually deteriorating into
Wednesday’s announcement. The big news from the Fed was its shift forward in the timing of expected rate increases (on the heels of a record YoY PPI release Tuesday) as well as an increase in its inflation expectations. Interestingly, the Fed gave no guidance regarding its buyback program.
Markets rebounded on Thursday but then sold off sharply Friday after St. Louis Fed President Jim
Bullard opined that the first rate increase would occur in 2022. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fared the worst, falling each day of the week. The Treasury yield curve flattened, with 10-year U.S.
Treasury rates declining slightly and 2-year U.S. Treasury rates rising 10bps, reflecting increased expectations of rate increases along with growing concerns of slowing economic growth. In addition,
the U.S. dollar sharply strengthened. For the week, the S&P 500 decreased 1.9% to 4,166.45, the
Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.3% to 14,030.38, the Dow Jones industrial average dropped 3.5% to
33,290.08, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 1bps to 1.45% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the
ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 1.8% percent.
U.S stock markets moved lower prior to Thursday’s CPI release, reflecting the possibility the Fed may
need to scale back its easy-money policies sooner than later. Despite CPI coming in above
expectations, jumping 5% YoY and 0.6% MoM, stock prices generally moved higher with the S&P 500
Index hitting a record high and the Nasdaq Composite Index increasing 0.8%. Stock prices
continued their move higher on Friday, though the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week
lower while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes moved higher. Interestingly, 10-year U.S.
Treasury rates moved lower throughout the week, falling 8bps before the CPI release. For the week,
the S&P 500 Index increased 0.4% to 4,247.44, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 1.9% to
14,069.42, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.8% to 34,479.6, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate
fell 10bps to 1.46% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY)
strengthened ½ percent
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 11 June 2021
14 June, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S stock markets moved lower prior to Thursday’s CPI release, reflecting the possibility the Fed may
need to scale back its easy-money policies sooner than later. Despite CPI coming in above
expectations, jumping 5% YoY and 0.6% MoM, stock prices generally moved higher with the S&P 500
Index hitting a record high and the Nasdaq Composite Index increasing 0.8%. Stock prices
continued their move higher on Friday, though the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week
lower while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes moved higher. Interestingly, 10-year U.S.
Treasury rates moved lower throughout the week, falling 8bps before the CPI release. For the week,
the S&P 500 Index increased 0.4% to 4,247.44, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 1.9% to
14,069.42, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.8% to 34,479.6, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate
fell 10bps to 1.46% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY)
strengthened ½ percent
U.S. stock markets moved higher again last week with gains mainly coming Friday on a holiday-shortened trading week. Thursday’s better-than-expected jobless claims and President Biden’s
retraction of his proposed corporate tax hike increased expectations of strong economic growth,
higher inflation and, as a result, increased concerns the Fed may act sooner than later to pare its
accommodative monetary policy, pushing all three major stock indexes lower. Those losses,
however, were recouped Friday following a payroll report showing good but below-expectations job
growth and an unchanged labor participation rate. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates were little changed
on the week but experienced increased volatility moving higher one day and then lower the next
throughout the week. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index increased 0.6% to 4,229.89, the Nasdaq
Composite Index increased 0.5% to 13,814.49, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7% to
34,756.39, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 2bps to 1.56% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the
ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.1%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 4 June 2021
07 June, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets moved higher again last week with gains mainly coming Friday on a holiday-shortened trading week. Thursday’s better-than-expected jobless claims and President Biden’s
retraction of his proposed corporate tax hike increased expectations of strong economic growth,
higher inflation and, as a result, increased concerns the Fed may act sooner than later to pare its
accommodative monetary policy, pushing all three major stock indexes lower. Those losses,
however, were recouped Friday following a payroll report showing good but below-expectations job
growth and an unchanged labor participation rate. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates were little changed
on the week but experienced increased volatility moving higher one day and then lower the next
throughout the week. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index increased 0.6% to 4,229.89, the Nasdaq
Composite Index increased 0.5% to 13,814.49, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7% to
34,756.39, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 2bps to 1.56% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the
ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.1%.
All three major indexes moved higher last week, downplaying inflation concerns and instead
focusing on continued post-Covid economic growth. An as-expected GDP release, soaring house
prices and a historically high PCE release had little negative effect on stock markets and actually
resulted in 10-year U.S. Treasury rates falling 5bps on the week. President Biden’s $6 trillion budget
proposal released Friday also had little effect on markets. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index
increased 1.2% to 4,204.11, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 2.1% to 13,748.74, the Dow
Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9% to 34,529.45, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 5bps to 1.58%
and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) was unchanged.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 28 May 2021
01 June, 2021 | GraniteShares
All three major indexes moved higher last week, downplaying inflation concerns and instead
focusing on continued post-Covid economic growth. An as-expected GDP release, soaring house
prices and a historically high PCE release had little negative effect on stock markets and actually
resulted in 10-year U.S. Treasury rates falling 5bps on the week. President Biden’s $6 trillion budget
proposal released Friday also had little effect on markets. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index
increased 1.2% to 4,204.11, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 2.1% to 13,748.74, the Dow
Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9% to 34,529.45, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 5bps to 1.58%
and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) was unchanged.
U.S stock markets struggled last week with growing inflation concerns unsettling investors and pressuring stock prices lower. FOMC minutes, released Wednesday, revealed some members thought it may be necessary in the near future to discuss scaling back asset purchases, adding to concerns the Fed may act to reduce its accommodative monetary policy sooner than expected. Increased cryptocurrency volatility also added to stock markets’ malaise contributing to investor concerns regarding asset valuations vis a vis a less accommodative Fed. Thursday’s post-pandemic low jobless claims release supported stock prices pushing the S&P 500 Index up 1% and the Nasdaq
Composite Index higher by just under 2%. Friday’s much better-than-expected PMI Composite Flash seemingly had little effect on markets. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate, up 4bps through Wednesday, closed the week unchanged. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index decreased 0.4% to 4,155.86, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 0.3% to 13,470.99, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5% to 34,207.84, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate was unchanged at 1.63% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.3%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 21 May 2021
25 May, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S stock markets struggled last week with growing inflation concerns unsettling investors and pressuring stock prices lower. FOMC minutes, released Wednesday, revealed some members thought it may be necessary in the near future to discuss scaling back asset purchases, adding to concerns the Fed may act to reduce its accommodative monetary policy sooner than expected. Increased cryptocurrency volatility also added to stock markets’ malaise contributing to investor concerns regarding asset valuations vis a vis a less accommodative Fed. Thursday’s post-pandemic low jobless claims release supported stock prices pushing the S&P 500 Index up 1% and the Nasdaq
Composite Index higher by just under 2%. Friday’s much better-than-expected PMI Composite Flash seemingly had little effect on markets. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate, up 4bps through Wednesday, closed the week unchanged. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index decreased 0.4% to 4,155.86, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 0.3% to 13,470.99, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5% to 34,207.84, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate was unchanged at 1.63% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.3%.
A tale of two halves last week with stock markets selling off steeply through Wednesday and then rallying strongly Thursday and Friday to finish the week lower but well off of Wednesday’s lows. Rotation from growth to value stocks continued early last week as investors continued to be concerned about growth stock valuations in the face of inflation and increasing interest rates. Wednesday’s much greater-than-expected CPI release pushed both growth and value stocks lower with growing expectations the Fed would act to scale back its massive accommodative monetary policy sooner than later. A lower-than-expected jobless claims number and the CDC advising that those fully vaccinated no longer need to wear masks in most situations helped push stock markets significantly higher. The increase came despite a much greater-than-expected increase in the PPI release. Inflation concerns again were ameliorated by the Fed, stating inflation increases will be transitory and that more data would be needed to cause changes in policy. The 10-year U.S. rate rose to almost 1.7% following the CPI release but moved lower the remainder of the week. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index decreased 1.4% to 4,173.85, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 2.3% to 13,429.98, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 1.1% to 34,832.13, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 6bps to 1.64% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.1%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 14 May 2021
17 May, 2021 | GraniteShares
A tale of two halves last week with stock markets selling off steeply through Wednesday and then rallying strongly Thursday and Friday to finish the week lower but well off of Wednesday’s lows. Rotation from growth to value stocks continued early last week as investors continued to be concerned about growth stock valuations in the face of inflation and increasing interest rates. Wednesday’s much greater-than-expected CPI release pushed both growth and value stocks lower with growing expectations the Fed would act to scale back its massive accommodative monetary policy sooner than later. A lower-than-expected jobless claims number and the CDC advising that those fully vaccinated no longer need to wear masks in most situations helped push stock markets significantly higher. The increase came despite a much greater-than-expected increase in the PPI release. Inflation concerns again were ameliorated by the Fed, stating inflation increases will be transitory and that more data would be needed to cause changes in policy. The 10-year U.S. rate rose to almost 1.7% following the CPI release but moved lower the remainder of the week. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index decreased 1.4% to 4,173.85, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 2.3% to 13,429.98, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 1.1% to 34,832.13, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 6bps to 1.64% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.1%.
Analysis of industry data by ETF provider GraniteShares reveals that 16 FTSE 100 companies have annual dividend yields – these are based on the current share price and the total dividends declared in the previous 12 months - of 0%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Investment Cases , Investments
Poor Dividend Yields in FTSE 100 & 250: Analysis
13 May, 2021 | GraniteShares
Analysis of industry data by ETF provider GraniteShares reveals that 16 FTSE 100 companies have annual dividend yields – these are based on the current share price and the total dividends declared in the previous 12 months - of 0%.
The value versus growth trade continued last week with both the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ending the week at record highs while the Nasdaq Composite Index finished the week lower. Strong earnings reports, continued expectations of a strong post-pandemic economic recovery along with growing inflation concerns - exacerbated by Treasury Secretary Yellen’s comments on Tuesday and emphasized by Monday’s ISM Manufacturing Index release - helped push cyclical stock prices higher while hindering tech stock prices last week. Friday’s much weaker-thanexpected payroll report had limited negative effect on stock prices with some analysts attributing the weakness to labor shortages resulting from high unemployment benefits and a dearth of childcare facilities (benefiting value stocks) while others believed the weak report showed a need for continued fiscal and monetary stimulus (benefiting growth stocks). For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 1.2% to 4,232.60, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.7% to 34,777.76, the Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 1.5% to 13,752.24, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 5bps to 1.58% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 1.2%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 07 May 2021
10 May, 2021 | GraniteShares
The value versus growth trade continued last week with both the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ending the week at record highs while the Nasdaq Composite Index finished the week lower. Strong earnings reports, continued expectations of a strong post-pandemic economic recovery along with growing inflation concerns - exacerbated by Treasury Secretary Yellen’s comments on Tuesday and emphasized by Monday’s ISM Manufacturing Index release - helped push cyclical stock prices higher while hindering tech stock prices last week. Friday’s much weaker-thanexpected payroll report had limited negative effect on stock prices with some analysts attributing the weakness to labor shortages resulting from high unemployment benefits and a dearth of childcare facilities (benefiting value stocks) while others believed the weak report showed a need for continued fiscal and monetary stimulus (benefiting growth stocks). For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 1.2% to 4,232.60, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.7% to 34,777.76, the Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 1.5% to 13,752.24, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 5bps to 1.58% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 1.2%.
A volatile week for US stock markets buffeted by concerns of potential upside from last week’s highs, President Biden’s seeking to raise capital gains tax rates and increased Covid-19 infections in Asia on the one hand and strong economic reports, decent earnings releases and continued optimism regarding global post-pandemic growth on the other. US stock markets fell sharply Monday and Tuesday on no real news but coming off record highs from the previous week. Betterthan-expected earnings reports moved markets higher on Wednesday only to see those gains reversed Thursday following President Biden’s announcement of his plan to raise capital gains tax rates and to work to sharply lower emissions over the next few years and despite lower-thanexpected jobless claims. Markets bounced back Friday following much stronger-than-expected new home sales and decreased concerns over the possible effects of higher capital gains tax rates. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index decreased 0.1% to 4,180.17, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.5% to 34,043.49, the Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 0.3% to 14,016.81, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate was unchanged at 1.57% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.8%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 23 Apr 2021
26 April, 2021 | GraniteShares
A volatile week for US stock markets buffeted by concerns of potential upside from last week’s highs, President Biden’s seeking to raise capital gains tax rates and increased Covid-19 infections in Asia on the one hand and strong economic reports, decent earnings releases and continued optimism regarding global post-pandemic growth on the other. US stock markets fell sharply Monday and Tuesday on no real news but coming off record highs from the previous week. Betterthan-expected earnings reports moved markets higher on Wednesday only to see those gains reversed Thursday following President Biden’s announcement of his plan to raise capital gains tax rates and to work to sharply lower emissions over the next few years and despite lower-thanexpected jobless claims. Markets bounced back Friday following much stronger-than-expected new home sales and decreased concerns over the possible effects of higher capital gains tax rates. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index decreased 0.1% to 4,180.17, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.5% to 34,043.49, the Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 0.3% to 14,016.81, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate was unchanged at 1.57% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.8%.
The FDA suspension of J&J’s vaccine and uncertainty regarding earnings releases left U.S. stock markets directionless and slightly lower through Wednesday last week. Very strong bank earnings reports, lower-than-expected jobless claims and much stronger-than-expected retail sales and housing starts and permits powered U.S. stock markets higher with both the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching new highs. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates fell 9bps on the week boistered by strong auction demand for U.S. Treasury notes and despite stronger-than-expected economic data and Fed Chair Powell’s comments the Fed would likely scale back bond purchases well before increasing rates. For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 1.4% to 4,185.47, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.2% to 34,200.67, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 1.1% to 14,052.34, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 9bp to 1.57% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.7%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 16 Apr 2021
20 April, 2021 | GraniteShares
The FDA suspension of J&J’s vaccine and uncertainty regarding earnings releases left U.S. stock markets directionless and slightly lower through Wednesday last week. Very strong bank earnings reports, lower-than-expected jobless claims and much stronger-than-expected retail sales and housing starts and permits powered U.S. stock markets higher with both the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching new highs. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates fell 9bps on the week boistered by strong auction demand for U.S. Treasury notes and despite stronger-than-expected economic data and Fed Chair Powell’s comments the Fed would likely scale back bond purchases well before increasing rates. For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 1.4% to 4,185.47, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.2% to 34,200.67, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 1.1% to 14,052.34, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 9bp to 1.57% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.7%.
U.S. stock markets moved higher last week, powered by a stronger-than-expected payroll report (released the previous Friday while markets were closed), FOMC minutes affirming the Fed’s continued accommodative approach and a much better-than-expected ISM Non-Manufacturing Index release. Both the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at record highs while the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed out of correction territory. A higher-than expected PPI release had limited effect on longer-term interest rates and helped pushed stock markets higher on Friday. For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 2.7% to 4,128.80, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.0% to 33,800.60, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 3.1% to 13,900.19, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 1bp to 1.67% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.8%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 09 Apr 2021
13 April, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets moved higher last week, powered by a stronger-than-expected payroll report (released the previous Friday while markets were closed), FOMC minutes affirming the Fed’s continued accommodative approach and a much better-than-expected ISM Non-Manufacturing Index release. Both the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at record highs while the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed out of correction territory. A higher-than expected PPI release had limited effect on longer-term interest rates and helped pushed stock markets higher on Friday. For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 2.7% to 4,128.80, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.0% to 33,800.60, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 3.1% to 13,900.19, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 1bp to 1.67% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.8%.
Another volatile week, this time with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Indexes ending higher and closing the week at record highs. The Nasdaq Composite Index, down almost 2% through Thursday, finished the week down 0.6%. Higher Monday on easing longer-term U.S. Treasury rates, U.S. stock markets dropped Tuesday and Wednesday following Treasury Secretary Yellen’s and Fed Chair Powell’s testimony before Congress, a much weaker-than-expected durable goods report and on global growth concerns spurred by renewed restrictions in Europe. Treasury Secretary Yellen’s comments suggesting the need for higher taxes and Fed Chair Powell’s caution regarding the pace of economic
recovery may have helped move markets lower Tuesday and Wednesday. Lower-than-expected jobless claims, a revision higher to 4th quarter GDP and perhaps recovering oil prices moved stocks higher on Thursday and Friday, with major indexes rallying into the close on both days. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates, lower by 11bps through Wednesday, moved higher by almost 7bps the remainder of the week with most of that increase occurring Friday. For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 1.6% to 3,974.54, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.4% to 33,072.88, the Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 0.6% to 13,138.74, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate decreased 4bps to 1.69% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.9%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 26 Mar 2021
30 March, 2021 | GraniteShares
Another volatile week, this time with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Indexes ending higher and closing the week at record highs. The Nasdaq Composite Index, down almost 2% through Thursday, finished the week down 0.6%. Higher Monday on easing longer-term U.S. Treasury rates, U.S. stock markets dropped Tuesday and Wednesday following Treasury Secretary Yellen’s and Fed Chair Powell’s testimony before Congress, a much weaker-than-expected durable goods report and on global growth concerns spurred by renewed restrictions in Europe. Treasury Secretary Yellen’s comments suggesting the need for higher taxes and Fed Chair Powell’s caution regarding the pace of economic
recovery may have helped move markets lower Tuesday and Wednesday. Lower-than-expected jobless claims, a revision higher to 4th quarter GDP and perhaps recovering oil prices moved stocks higher on Thursday and Friday, with major indexes rallying into the close on both days. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates, lower by 11bps through Wednesday, moved higher by almost 7bps the remainder of the week with most of that increase occurring Friday. For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 1.6% to 3,974.54, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.4% to 33,072.88, the Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 0.6% to 13,138.74, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate decreased 4bps to 1.69% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.9%.
A somewhat volatile week for with U.S. stock markets reacting to Wednesday’s FOMC announcement and Chairman Powell’s comments and then to rising longer-term U.S. Treasury rates. Higher through Wednesday with all three major U.S. stock indexes reacting positively to the Fed’s decision to continue unchanged its accommodative monetary policy (ie, zero Fed Funds rate and no change to its Treasury and mortgage-backed securities buyback program), markets reversed course on Thursday as 10-year U.S. Treasury rates rose above 1.7%, a level not seen since before the pandemic. The Nasdaq Composite Index fared the worst, falling 3% on Thursday while the S&P 500 Index decreased 1.5% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost less than ½ percent. The U.S. dollar also experienced some volatility weakening ½ percent after the FOMC announcement and then strengthening ½ percent after the rise in longer-term Treasury rates on Thursday. At week’s end the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 0.8% to 3,913.10 and 13,215.24, respectively, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5% to 36,267.97, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rateincreased 10bps to 1.73% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.3%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 19 Mar 2021
23 March, 2021 | GraniteShares
A somewhat volatile week for with U.S. stock markets reacting to Wednesday’s FOMC announcement and Chairman Powell’s comments and then to rising longer-term U.S. Treasury rates. Higher through Wednesday with all three major U.S. stock indexes reacting positively to the Fed’s decision to continue unchanged its accommodative monetary policy (ie, zero Fed Funds rate and no change to its Treasury and mortgage-backed securities buyback program), markets reversed course on Thursday as 10-year U.S. Treasury rates rose above 1.7%, a level not seen since before the pandemic. The Nasdaq Composite Index fared the worst, falling 3% on Thursday while the S&P 500 Index decreased 1.5% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost less than ½ percent. The U.S. dollar also experienced some volatility weakening ½ percent after the FOMC announcement and then strengthening ½ percent after the rise in longer-term Treasury rates on Thursday. At week’s end the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 0.8% to 3,913.10 and 13,215.24, respectively, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5% to 36,267.97, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rateincreased 10bps to 1.73% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.3%.
U.S stock markets moved higher last week with the Dow Jones Industrial average continuing to outperform the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes. Declining U.S. Treasury rates, a muted CPI release, lower-than-expected jobless claims, increasing consumer sentiment and passage and signing into law of the $1.9 trillion stimulus package all worked to move stock prices higher. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates jumped 9bps higher Friday to close over 1.63% causing some retracement of gains in the Nasdaq Compositie Index while the Dow Jones Industrial Average moved oppositely, gaining almost 1% and the S&P 500 Index was almost unchanged (the increase in rates may be partly attributable to increasing “risk-on” sentiment causing yields to rise and the U.S. dollar to weaken). At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 2.6% to 3,943.34, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 3.1% to 13,319.86, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 4.1% to 32,778.64, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 6bps to 1.63% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.3%
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 12 Mar 2021
16 March, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S stock markets moved higher last week with the Dow Jones Industrial average continuing to outperform the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes. Declining U.S. Treasury rates, a muted CPI release, lower-than-expected jobless claims, increasing consumer sentiment and passage and signing into law of the $1.9 trillion stimulus package all worked to move stock prices higher. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates jumped 9bps higher Friday to close over 1.63% causing some retracement of gains in the Nasdaq Compositie Index while the Dow Jones Industrial Average moved oppositely, gaining almost 1% and the S&P 500 Index was almost unchanged (the increase in rates may be partly attributable to increasing “risk-on” sentiment causing yields to rise and the U.S. dollar to weaken). At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 2.6% to 3,943.34, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 3.1% to 13,319.86, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 4.1% to 32,778.64, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 6bps to 1.63% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.3%
Another volatile week for U.S. equity markets as investors struggled with strong economic data, decreasing Covid-19 infections, increasing vaccinations and rising interest rates. Tech stocks continued to fare the worst, suffering most from concerns over rising rates, with the Nasdaq Composite Index decreasing last week while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Indexes increased. House passage of the $1.9 trillion stimulus package, approval of J&J’s Covid-19 vaccination and stable 10-year Treasury rates powered all three indexes 2% to 3% higher on Monday only to see those gains swept away by increased uncertainty and concerns from a resumption of rising longer-term U.S. Treasury rates spurred by stronger-than-exepected economic reports and status-quo comments by Fed Chairman Powell. All three indexes rallied on Friday after initially falling as 10-year Treasury rates spiked then fell to unchanged on the day following the much betterthan-expected release of the Employment Situation report. The U.S. dollar strengthened
last week, reflecting continued market uncertainty with stock market levels. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 0.8% to 3,841.94 the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 2.1% to 12,920.15, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.8% to 31,496.30, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 15bps to 1.57% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 1.2%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 05 Mar 2021
07 March, 2021 | GraniteShares
Another volatile week for U.S. equity markets as investors struggled with strong economic data, decreasing Covid-19 infections, increasing vaccinations and rising interest rates. Tech stocks continued to fare the worst, suffering most from concerns over rising rates, with the Nasdaq Composite Index decreasing last week while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Indexes increased. House passage of the $1.9 trillion stimulus package, approval of J&J’s Covid-19 vaccination and stable 10-year Treasury rates powered all three indexes 2% to 3% higher on Monday only to see those gains swept away by increased uncertainty and concerns from a resumption of rising longer-term U.S. Treasury rates spurred by stronger-than-exepected economic reports and status-quo comments by Fed Chairman Powell. All three indexes rallied on Friday after initially falling as 10-year Treasury rates spiked then fell to unchanged on the day following the much betterthan-expected release of the Employment Situation report. The U.S. dollar strengthened
last week, reflecting continued market uncertainty with stock market levels. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 0.8% to 3,841.94 the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 2.1% to 12,920.15, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.8% to 31,496.30, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 15bps to 1.57% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 1.2%.
U.S. stock markets moved higher once again last week with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes again reaching record highs. Stock markets were buoyed by increasing expectations of passage of a $1.9 trillion stimulus package, strong corporate earnings reports, a rallying energy sector propelled by higher oil prices and positive news regarding vaccine availability. Fed Chairman Powell’s comments on Wednesday stating the economy was still struggling and in need of more than accomodative monetary policy helped weaken the U.S. dollar and push 10-year U.S. Treasury rates higher. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.2% to 3,934.83, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.7% to 14,095.47, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 4bps to 1.21% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.6%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 12 Feb 2021
16 February, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets moved higher once again last week with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes again reaching record highs. Stock markets were buoyed by increasing expectations of passage of a $1.9 trillion stimulus package, strong corporate earnings reports, a rallying energy sector propelled by higher oil prices and positive news regarding vaccine availability. Fed Chairman Powell’s comments on Wednesday stating the economy was still struggling and in need of more than accomodative monetary policy helped weaken the U.S. dollar and push 10-year U.S. Treasury rates higher. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.2% to 3,934.83, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.7% to 14,095.47, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 4bps to 1.21% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.6%.
U.S. stock markets moved higher last week with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes reaching new record highs. Steps taken by the Democratic controlled House and Senate set the stage for passage of a $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package were the primary reasons for last week’s gains. Strong earnings reports in tech and energy and material stocks and a slightly better than-expected employment situation report also helped move stock markets higher. Increased expectations of the passage of the $1.9 trillion stimulus package also acted to move 10-year Treasury rates higher and helped subdue the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 4.7% to 3,886.83, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 6.0% to 13,856.30, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 11bps to 1.17% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.5%
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 05 Feb 2021
09 February, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets moved higher last week with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes reaching new record highs. Steps taken by the Democratic controlled House and Senate set the stage for passage of a $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package were the primary reasons for last week’s gains. Strong earnings reports in tech and energy and material stocks and a slightly better than-expected employment situation report also helped move stock markets higher. Increased expectations of the passage of the $1.9 trillion stimulus package also acted to move 10-year Treasury rates higher and helped subdue the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 4.7% to 3,886.83, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 6.0% to 13,856.30, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 11bps to 1.17% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.5%
U.S. stock markets were higher last week with stock prices supported by strong economic reports
and hopes of additional stimulus spending. Slightly lower-than-expected jobless claims, a strongerthan-expected PMI Composite Flash Index release and much better-than-expected housing starts
and permits and existing home sales combined with Janet Yellen’s call for additional, larger stimulus
spending and President Biden’s announcement of a $1.9 trillion stimulus package helped move stock
prices higher through most of the week. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed the week at a record
high elevated by strong performance by Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Netflix while the S&P 500
Index, hurt by poor IBM and Intel earnings reports, closed just off its record high set Thursday. At
week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 2.0% to 3,841.47, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 4.2% to
13,543.06, the 10-year U.S. Treasury was unchanged at 1.09% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by
the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.6%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 22 Jan 2021
25 January, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets were higher last week with stock prices supported by strong economic reports
and hopes of additional stimulus spending. Slightly lower-than-expected jobless claims, a strongerthan-expected PMI Composite Flash Index release and much better-than-expected housing starts
and permits and existing home sales combined with Janet Yellen’s call for additional, larger stimulus
spending and President Biden’s announcement of a $1.9 trillion stimulus package helped move stock
prices higher through most of the week. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed the week at a record
high elevated by strong performance by Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Netflix while the S&P 500
Index, hurt by poor IBM and Intel earnings reports, closed just off its record high set Thursday. At
week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 2.0% to 3,841.47, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 4.2% to
13,543.06, the 10-year U.S. Treasury was unchanged at 1.09% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by
the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.6%.
Finishing lower on the week, U.S. stock markets were pressured by weaker-than-expected economic
numbers and perhaps concerns of lofty valuations and rising interest rates. Larger-than-expected
jobless claims and an unexpected decline in retail sales combined with disappointing bank earnings
reports and weak tech stock performance set the stage for weaker stock markets. President-elect
Biden’s stimulus plan announcement late Thursday failed to support stock prices with the news
seemingly already priced in. Though 10-year U.S. Treasury rates were slightly lower on the week,
they maintained levels greater than 1%, perhaps indicating continued concern about the low level of
real rates and prospective inflation. The U.S. dollar strengthened last week, with most of the
increase occuring Friday. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index decreased 1.5% to 3,768.25, the Nasdaq
Composite Index decreased 1.5% to 12,998.50, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 3bps to 1.09% and
the dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.8%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 15 Jan 2021
19 January, 2021 | GraniteShares
Finishing lower on the week, U.S. stock markets were pressured by weaker-than-expected economic
numbers and perhaps concerns of lofty valuations and rising interest rates. Larger-than-expected
jobless claims and an unexpected decline in retail sales combined with disappointing bank earnings
reports and weak tech stock performance set the stage for weaker stock markets. President-elect
Biden’s stimulus plan announcement late Thursday failed to support stock prices with the news
seemingly already priced in. Though 10-year U.S. Treasury rates were slightly lower on the week,
they maintained levels greater than 1%, perhaps indicating continued concern about the low level of
real rates and prospective inflation. The U.S. dollar strengthened last week, with most of the
increase occuring Friday. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index decreased 1.5% to 3,768.25, the Nasdaq
Composite Index decreased 1.5% to 12,998.50, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 3bps to 1.09% and
the dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.8%.
U.S. stock markets moved higher last week after starting the week and the year with a sharp selloff. Coronavirus-related concerns and uncertainty surrounding Georgia Senate runoff elections present on Monday were diminished after Democrat wins in Georia and Joe Biden being declared the next president of the U.S. Expectations of increased stimulus spending and Saudi Arabia’s announcement it would unilaterally reduce oil production helped power oil prices, global stock markets and longer-term U.S. interest rates higher while also strengthening the U.S. dollar despite a weaker-than-expected employment report. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.8% to 3,824.68, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 2.4% to 13,201.98, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate jumped 20bps to 1.12% and the dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened .2%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 08 Jan 2021
11 January, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets moved higher last week after starting the week and the year with a sharp selloff. Coronavirus-related concerns and uncertainty surrounding Georgia Senate runoff elections present on Monday were diminished after Democrat wins in Georia and Joe Biden being declared the next president of the U.S. Expectations of increased stimulus spending and Saudi Arabia’s announcement it would unilaterally reduce oil production helped power oil prices, global stock markets and longer-term U.S. interest rates higher while also strengthening the U.S. dollar despite a weaker-than-expected employment report. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.8% to 3,824.68, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 2.4% to 13,201.98, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate jumped 20bps to 1.12% and the dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened .2%.
U.S. stock market moved higher last week with the S&P 500 closing at a record high and up over 16% on the year. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed just short of its record high finishing the year 43% higher. Mixed economic news – inlcuding lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims and disappointing pending home sales numbers - was offset by President Trump’s signing of the $900 billion stimulus package though congressional resistance to increased individual stimulus checks may have limited stock market gains. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.4% to 3,756.07, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 0.7% to 12,888.28, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 1bp to 92bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.4%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 31 Dec 2020
04 January, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock market moved higher last week with the S&P 500 closing at a record high and up over 16% on the year. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed just short of its record high finishing the year 43% higher. Mixed economic news – inlcuding lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims and disappointing pending home sales numbers - was offset by President Trump’s signing of the $900 billion stimulus package though congressional resistance to increased individual stimulus checks may have limited stock market gains. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.4% to 3,756.07, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 0.7% to 12,888.28, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 1bp to 92bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.4%.
Despite greater-than-expected jobless claims, a larger-than expected decline in retail sales and increased restrictions resulting from rising Covid-19 cases, U.S. stock markets rose last week primarily on hopes of passage of a scaled-down fiscal stimulus package. Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine was approved for emergency use by the FDA on Friday while the first doses of Pfizer’s vaccine were administered Monday. The FOMC announcement following the completion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday was mainly as expected with no changes in interest rate policy or buyback programs, though the Fed did increase its GDP growth forecast for 2021 and scaled back slightly its forecasted GDP decline for 2020. The U.S. dollar weakened significantly last week with longer-term U.S. interest rates rising, resulting mainly from increased “risk-on” market sentiment supported by increased expectations of passage of a U.S. stimulus package before year-end. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.3% to 3,709.41, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 3.1% to 12,755.64, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 5bps to 95bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 1.1%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 18 Dec 2020
21 December, 2020 | GraniteShares
Despite greater-than-expected jobless claims, a larger-than expected decline in retail sales and increased restrictions resulting from rising Covid-19 cases, U.S. stock markets rose last week primarily on hopes of passage of a scaled-down fiscal stimulus package. Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine was approved for emergency use by the FDA on Friday while the first doses of Pfizer’s vaccine were administered Monday. The FOMC announcement following the completion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday was mainly as expected with no changes in interest rate policy or buyback programs, though the Fed did increase its GDP growth forecast for 2021 and scaled back slightly its forecasted GDP decline for 2020. The U.S. dollar weakened significantly last week with longer-term U.S. interest rates rising, resulting mainly from increased “risk-on” market sentiment supported by increased expectations of passage of a U.S. stimulus package before year-end. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.3% to 3,709.41, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 3.1% to 12,755.64, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 5bps to 95bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 1.1%.
Exchange traded products (ETPs) are investments that provide exposure to different asset classes such as equities, fixed income, commodities and foreign exchange. They are mostly passively managed, tracking an index or another underlying benchmark. ETPs are traded on stock exchanges such as London Stock Exchange. They trade and settle like shares in the market and provide continuous liquidity during market hours. Are you thinking about investing in ETPs? GraniteShares offers a wide range of short and leveraged single stock ETPs for sophisticated investors!
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: ETP and Industry , Single stock research
Everything You Need to Know About ETPs
16 December, 2020 | GraniteShares
Exchange traded products (ETPs) are investments that provide exposure to different asset classes such as equities, fixed income, commodities and foreign exchange. They are mostly passively managed, tracking an index or another underlying benchmark. ETPs are traded on stock exchanges such as London Stock Exchange. They trade and settle like shares in the market and provide continuous liquidity during market hours. Are you thinking about investing in ETPs? GraniteShares offers a wide range of short and leveraged single stock ETPs for sophisticated investors!
Rising Covid-19 infections and related restrictions, larger-than-expected jobless claims and faltering hopes of a stimulus package moved U.S. stock markets off their early-in-the-week record highs to finish lower on the week. Late Friday, after market close, the FDA approved emergency use of Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine with shipments expected to begin immediately while the UK began administering Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine Tuesday. The U.S. dollar strengthened last week mainly as a result of increased uncertainty of a U.S. stimulus package, the ECB announcing it would be expanding its buyback program and as result of a steep decline in the British pound due to stalled UK – EU trade talks. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index decreased 1.0% to 3,663.46, the Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 0.7% to 12,377.87, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 7bps to 9bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.3%
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 12 Dec 2020
14 December, 2020 | GraniteShares
Rising Covid-19 infections and related restrictions, larger-than-expected jobless claims and faltering hopes of a stimulus package moved U.S. stock markets off their early-in-the-week record highs to finish lower on the week. Late Friday, after market close, the FDA approved emergency use of Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine with shipments expected to begin immediately while the UK began administering Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine Tuesday. The U.S. dollar strengthened last week mainly as a result of increased uncertainty of a U.S. stimulus package, the ECB announcing it would be expanding its buyback program and as result of a steep decline in the British pound due to stalled UK – EU trade talks. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index decreased 1.0% to 3,663.46, the Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 0.7% to 12,377.87, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 7bps to 9bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.3%
Week in review: Countdown starts to Tesla’s S&P 500 entry
Despite good news on the vaccine front, with both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna showing efficacy rates of 95%, the FTSE 100 ended up 0.6% on the week and the S&P 500 down 0.8%. Investor enthusiasm was tempered by factors such as the ongoing increase in infection numbers, no progress on new stimulus measures in the U.S., and still no EU-UK trade deal. Negotiations on the latter were interrupted when a member of the EU team contracted coronavirus; could an extension to the transition period be in the offing if more time is needed to clinch a deal? Data releases in the U.S. included retail sales which rose 0.3% in October and industrial production, which saw manufacturing output increase 1% in October but still remains 5% below its February level. In Europe, November’s flash consumer confidence figures fell in both the euro area (2.1 points down) and the EU (2.2 points down). The latest UK public finance figures were released, debt hit 100.8% of GDP in October.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 20 Nov 2020
23 November, 2020 | GraniteShares
Week in review: Countdown starts to Tesla’s S&P 500 entry
Despite good news on the vaccine front, with both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna showing efficacy rates of 95%, the FTSE 100 ended up 0.6% on the week and the S&P 500 down 0.8%. Investor enthusiasm was tempered by factors such as the ongoing increase in infection numbers, no progress on new stimulus measures in the U.S., and still no EU-UK trade deal. Negotiations on the latter were interrupted when a member of the EU team contracted coronavirus; could an extension to the transition period be in the offing if more time is needed to clinch a deal? Data releases in the U.S. included retail sales which rose 0.3% in October and industrial production, which saw manufacturing output increase 1% in October but still remains 5% below its February level. In Europe, November’s flash consumer confidence figures fell in both the euro area (2.1 points down) and the EU (2.2 points down). The latest UK public finance figures were released, debt hit 100.8% of GDP in October.
Week in review: Cyclicals back in the limelight
Investor reaction to the news on Pfizer’s vaccine on Monday sent cyclical stocks, sharply higher, with Rolls-Royce leading the pack rising 44% on the day. Over the week, investors’ enthusiasm became more muted as the challenges involved in manufacturing and distributing the vaccine became evident. With the focus on cyclicals, the FTSE 100 ended up 6.9% on the week ahead of the S&P 500’s 2.2% rise. With no significant data releases, investors focused on the Fed’s Financial Stability Report, which highlighted the relatively high levels of leverage in hedge funds and life insurance companies in contrast to the historic lows as broker-dealers. Apart from the risks associated with the pandemic, it also looked at climate change and the risks to the European and U.S. financial systems of a no-trade-deal Brexit. Christine Lagarde’s speech “Monetary policy in a pandemic emergency” at the ECB Forum on Central Banking was closely followed, and included the current central banker’s mantra, “The right policy mix is essential. Fiscal policy has to remain at the centre of the stabilisation effort… and the Next Generation EU package should become operational without delay.”
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 13 Nov 2020
16 November, 2020 | GraniteShares
Week in review: Cyclicals back in the limelight
Investor reaction to the news on Pfizer’s vaccine on Monday sent cyclical stocks, sharply higher, with Rolls-Royce leading the pack rising 44% on the day. Over the week, investors’ enthusiasm became more muted as the challenges involved in manufacturing and distributing the vaccine became evident. With the focus on cyclicals, the FTSE 100 ended up 6.9% on the week ahead of the S&P 500’s 2.2% rise. With no significant data releases, investors focused on the Fed’s Financial Stability Report, which highlighted the relatively high levels of leverage in hedge funds and life insurance companies in contrast to the historic lows as broker-dealers. Apart from the risks associated with the pandemic, it also looked at climate change and the risks to the European and U.S. financial systems of a no-trade-deal Brexit. Christine Lagarde’s speech “Monetary policy in a pandemic emergency” at the ECB Forum on Central Banking was closely followed, and included the current central banker’s mantra, “The right policy mix is essential. Fiscal policy has to remain at the centre of the stabilisation effort… and the Next Generation EU package should become operational without delay.”
Week in review: Markets on a charge as U.S. election results come in
Markets had their best week since March with the S&P 500 up 7.3% and FTSE 100 up 6.0% as investors digested the implications of the unfolding election results in the U.S. In terms of the main event, on Saturday, the result in Pennsylvania meant that Joe Biden had secured the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidential election, while the make-up of the Senate looked like hinging on two run-off votes in Georgia in January. In economic news, the Bank of England increased its QE programme by £150bn, taking the total stock of bond purchases to £875bn. The Fed kept its policies unchanged and will continue to increase its “holdings of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities at least at the current pace” and Fed chair Powell underlined the importance of fiscal policy to support the economy. Data points of note during the week included the Caixin Manufacturing PMI which rose to 53.6 in October, its highest level since January 2011, in the U.S. total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 638,000 in October with gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction, while eurozone retail sales were down 2% in September highlighting the challenges ahead.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 06 Nov 2020
09 November, 2020 | GraniteShares
Week in review: Markets on a charge as U.S. election results come in
Markets had their best week since March with the S&P 500 up 7.3% and FTSE 100 up 6.0% as investors digested the implications of the unfolding election results in the U.S. In terms of the main event, on Saturday, the result in Pennsylvania meant that Joe Biden had secured the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidential election, while the make-up of the Senate looked like hinging on two run-off votes in Georgia in January. In economic news, the Bank of England increased its QE programme by £150bn, taking the total stock of bond purchases to £875bn. The Fed kept its policies unchanged and will continue to increase its “holdings of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities at least at the current pace” and Fed chair Powell underlined the importance of fiscal policy to support the economy. Data points of note during the week included the Caixin Manufacturing PMI which rose to 53.6 in October, its highest level since January 2011, in the U.S. total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 638,000 in October with gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction, while eurozone retail sales were down 2% in September highlighting the challenges ahead.
Markets had their worst week since March with the S&P 500 down 5.6% and FTSE 100 down 4.8%. The two factors behind the weakness are: the run-up to next week’s U.S. presidential election whose outcome remains finely balanced and the record numbers of pandemic-related infections being reported in a number of countries and the return of national lockdowns, notably with France on Friday. At this point, any backward looking positive economic data releases, particularly the positive GDP figures for 3Q20 in the U.S. and across a number of European countries, can be discounted. In this context at the ECB meeting on 29 October, Christine Lagarde’s statement indicated that based on the macroeconomic assessment in December, “the Governing Council will recalibrate its instruments, as appropriate, to respond to the unfolding situation and to ensure that financing conditions remain favourable to support the economic recovery and counteract the negative impact of the pandemic on the projected inflation path.” Prepare for further stimulus in December.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 30 Oct 2020
02 November, 2020 | GraniteShares
Markets had their worst week since March with the S&P 500 down 5.6% and FTSE 100 down 4.8%. The two factors behind the weakness are: the run-up to next week’s U.S. presidential election whose outcome remains finely balanced and the record numbers of pandemic-related infections being reported in a number of countries and the return of national lockdowns, notably with France on Friday. At this point, any backward looking positive economic data releases, particularly the positive GDP figures for 3Q20 in the U.S. and across a number of European countries, can be discounted. In this context at the ECB meeting on 29 October, Christine Lagarde’s statement indicated that based on the macroeconomic assessment in December, “the Governing Council will recalibrate its instruments, as appropriate, to respond to the unfolding situation and to ensure that financing conditions remain favourable to support the economic recovery and counteract the negative impact of the pandemic on the projected inflation path.” Prepare for further stimulus in December.
Markets were becalmed over the week with the S&P 500 down 0.5% and FTSE 100 down 1%. The rising number of pandemic-related infections is a growing source of concern; in Europe, Spain and Italy have reported over one million cases and lockdown-like measures have been put in place across various parts of the UK. Against this backdrop, eurozone PMIs indicated a fall in business activity in October, which highlight the increasing risk of a contraction in GDP in the fourth quarter, perhaps a catalyst to help EU-UK trade negotiators surmount outstanding difficulties. In the U.S., the latest presidential debate was not decisive, although Biden’s energy misstep might cost some votes in shale-producing regions. Agreement on a relief package remains elusive with Senate Republicans reluctant to be seen to be meeting all Democrat demands. While U.S. jobless claims fell to 787,000, below the consensus figure of 870,000, thanks to the resumption of reporting from California, the figure still exceeds the 665,000 high in the great financial crisis indicating the ongoing fragility of the job market and the need for a package.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 23 Oct 2020
26 October, 2020 | GraniteShares
Markets were becalmed over the week with the S&P 500 down 0.5% and FTSE 100 down 1%. The rising number of pandemic-related infections is a growing source of concern; in Europe, Spain and Italy have reported over one million cases and lockdown-like measures have been put in place across various parts of the UK. Against this backdrop, eurozone PMIs indicated a fall in business activity in October, which highlight the increasing risk of a contraction in GDP in the fourth quarter, perhaps a catalyst to help EU-UK trade negotiators surmount outstanding difficulties. In the U.S., the latest presidential debate was not decisive, although Biden’s energy misstep might cost some votes in shale-producing regions. Agreement on a relief package remains elusive with Senate Republicans reluctant to be seen to be meeting all Democrat demands. While U.S. jobless claims fell to 787,000, below the consensus figure of 870,000, thanks to the resumption of reporting from California, the figure still exceeds the 665,000 high in the great financial crisis indicating the ongoing fragility of the job market and the need for a package.
Week in review: BoJo ups the ante on trade talks, UK credit rating downgraded
Friday saw the UK PM issue a statement indicating that the UK wanted “nothing more complicated than a Canada-style relationship, based on friendship and free trade”, however given the EU Summit on 15 October ruled out this possibility, “We should get ready for January 1 with arrangements that are more like Australia’s based on simple principles of global free trade.” Despite the goings-on, the FTSE ended up 1.5% on the day, but down 1.6% on the week, and, after the market close, Moody’s announced it was downgrading the UK to Aa3 stable on “low growth, high debt, and fractious policy environment”. Meanwhile, it was a quiet week over the Atlantic with the S&P 500 up 0.2%. For now at least investors do not appeared overly concerned by the worsening economic picture: initial jobless claims for the week ending 8 October were 898,000, industrial production fell 0.6 percent in September, its first decline after four consecutive months of gains. One bright spot, U.S, retail sales came in with a 1.9% increase in September. It was another week of tightening restrictions in Europe, which, in the UK at least, are proving more contentious than earlier in the year because of the associated economic and human costs.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 16 Oct 2020
19 October, 2020 | GraniteShares
Week in review: BoJo ups the ante on trade talks, UK credit rating downgraded
Friday saw the UK PM issue a statement indicating that the UK wanted “nothing more complicated than a Canada-style relationship, based on friendship and free trade”, however given the EU Summit on 15 October ruled out this possibility, “We should get ready for January 1 with arrangements that are more like Australia’s based on simple principles of global free trade.” Despite the goings-on, the FTSE ended up 1.5% on the day, but down 1.6% on the week, and, after the market close, Moody’s announced it was downgrading the UK to Aa3 stable on “low growth, high debt, and fractious policy environment”. Meanwhile, it was a quiet week over the Atlantic with the S&P 500 up 0.2%. For now at least investors do not appeared overly concerned by the worsening economic picture: initial jobless claims for the week ending 8 October were 898,000, industrial production fell 0.6 percent in September, its first decline after four consecutive months of gains. One bright spot, U.S, retail sales came in with a 1.9% increase in September. It was another week of tightening restrictions in Europe, which, in the UK at least, are proving more contentious than earlier in the year because of the associated economic and human costs.
The week saw the U.S. President leave hospital, kill off any chances of a stimulus package before the election then changing his mind urging Congress to pass piecemeal aid packages, before announcing he would resume rallies in key states. Meanwhile in a parallel universe, the significant move in the Rolls-Royce share price came after it hit a 52-week low on 2 October, and, yes, the UK’s FCA announced that crypto derivatives would be banned for retail consumers from January 2021. More broadly, it was a good week for both S&P 500 and FTSE 100, which rose by 3.8% and 1.9% respectively. Notable on the economics front was a speech from Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, echoed by the FOMC Minutes, in which he underlined the need for continued fiscal stimulus, “The recovery will be stronger and move faster if monetary policy and fiscal policy continue to work side by side.” We are in a world where any economic positives are counterbalanced by rising Covid infection rates. New restrictions are resulting in additional policies to protect incomes and support businesses, see, for example, the UK’s expansion of the Job Support Scheme.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 09 Oct 2020
12 October, 2020 | GraniteShares
The week saw the U.S. President leave hospital, kill off any chances of a stimulus package before the election then changing his mind urging Congress to pass piecemeal aid packages, before announcing he would resume rallies in key states. Meanwhile in a parallel universe, the significant move in the Rolls-Royce share price came after it hit a 52-week low on 2 October, and, yes, the UK’s FCA announced that crypto derivatives would be banned for retail consumers from January 2021. More broadly, it was a good week for both S&P 500 and FTSE 100, which rose by 3.8% and 1.9% respectively. Notable on the economics front was a speech from Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, echoed by the FOMC Minutes, in which he underlined the need for continued fiscal stimulus, “The recovery will be stronger and move faster if monetary policy and fiscal policy continue to work side by side.” We are in a world where any economic positives are counterbalanced by rising Covid infection rates. New restrictions are resulting in additional policies to protect incomes and support businesses, see, for example, the UK’s expansion of the Job Support Scheme.
The tweet in the early hours of Friday morning by the U.S. President that both he and his wife had contracted Covid-19 shook investors and led to a 3.48% rise in the VIX and a fall of 0.96% in the S&P 500, which still left it, like the FTSE 100, in positive territory over the week. The President’s illness, with the U.S. election barely four weeks away, is the latest ingredient in the cocktail of uncertainty facing investors. Most immediately, in addition to the President’s health, investors have to assess the chances of a new stimulus package being agreed before the election, and, on this side of the pond, whether the EU and UK can reach an agreement on trade after failing to do so after nine negotiating rounds.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 02 Oct 2020
05 October, 2020 | GraniteShares
The tweet in the early hours of Friday morning by the U.S. President that both he and his wife had contracted Covid-19 shook investors and led to a 3.48% rise in the VIX and a fall of 0.96% in the S&P 500, which still left it, like the FTSE 100, in positive territory over the week. The President’s illness, with the U.S. election barely four weeks away, is the latest ingredient in the cocktail of uncertainty facing investors. Most immediately, in addition to the President’s health, investors have to assess the chances of a new stimulus package being agreed before the election, and, on this side of the pond, whether the EU and UK can reach an agreement on trade after failing to do so after nine negotiating rounds.
Both the S&P 500 and FTSE 100 fell on the week, by -0.63% and -2.74% respectively, and the VIX had some significant swings and ended the week at 26.38. In the UK, both Lloyds Banking Group and Rolls-Royce had a second consecutive week of hitting new 52-week lows. In the case of the latter, rumours on Friday that the Kuwait Investment Office was going to take a stake provided some support for the share price, a post-market RNS from the company indicated that all fund options were being considered and no decisions had been taken,
including “any allotment of shares to any investor including any sovereign wealth fund.” Investors are looking ahead to what could prove to be a difficult final quarter for economies with the rise of Covid-19 infections. Rising job losses seem inevitable, the FTWeekend led with “Axe set to fall on 1m jobs this year” in the UK, meanwhile in the US, ING suggests that job growth may have hit a plateau.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 25 Sep 2020
28 September, 2020 | GraniteShares
Both the S&P 500 and FTSE 100 fell on the week, by -0.63% and -2.74% respectively, and the VIX had some significant swings and ended the week at 26.38. In the UK, both Lloyds Banking Group and Rolls-Royce had a second consecutive week of hitting new 52-week lows. In the case of the latter, rumours on Friday that the Kuwait Investment Office was going to take a stake provided some support for the share price, a post-market RNS from the company indicated that all fund options were being considered and no decisions had been taken,
including “any allotment of shares to any investor including any sovereign wealth fund.” Investors are looking ahead to what could prove to be a difficult final quarter for economies with the rise of Covid-19 infections. Rising job losses seem inevitable, the FTWeekend led with “Axe set to fall on 1m jobs this year” in the UK, meanwhile in the US, ING suggests that job growth may have hit a plateau.
Tech remained under pressure, with Apple down 4.6% in the week it announced its Apple One bundle, leading to a fall of 0.64% in the S&P 500, while the FTSE 100 was down 0.42%, with Lloyds Banking Group and Rolls-Royce hitting new 52 week lows. Investors have plenty to fret about: the looming presidential election, simmering U.S.-China tensions, and, in Europe, rising new cases of Covid-19 raising concerns about scope for new lockdowns as we head into autumn (see chart below). Central banks were centre stage with the Fed suggesting rates are on hold until 2024, with only four of the 17 FOMC members expecting a rise in 2023. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee indicated that it “does not intend to tighten monetary policy until there is clear evidence that significant progress is being made in eliminating spare capacity and achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably,” and negative rates are under review as an option “should the outlook for inflation and output warrant it.”
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 18 Sep 2020
21 September, 2020 | GraniteShares
Tech remained under pressure, with Apple down 4.6% in the week it announced its Apple One bundle, leading to a fall of 0.64% in the S&P 500, while the FTSE 100 was down 0.42%, with Lloyds Banking Group and Rolls-Royce hitting new 52 week lows. Investors have plenty to fret about: the looming presidential election, simmering U.S.-China tensions, and, in Europe, rising new cases of Covid-19 raising concerns about scope for new lockdowns as we head into autumn (see chart below). Central banks were centre stage with the Fed suggesting rates are on hold until 2024, with only four of the 17 FOMC members expecting a rise in 2023. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee indicated that it “does not intend to tighten monetary policy until there is clear evidence that significant progress is being made in eliminating spare capacity and achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably,” and negative rates are under review as an option “should the outlook for inflation and output warrant it.”
Tech was again a drag on markets leading to a fall of 2.51% in the S&P 500 while the FTSE 100 rose by 1.59%. Despite tech’s reversal, as pointed out by Michael Mackenzie in the FT, the Nasdaq 100 is still up nearly 60% from its March lows. There are still factors that are supportive of the sector, including the earnings yield, which, unlike in 2000, is comfortably above that of a 30-year Treasury bond. On the economic front, the UK-EU Future Relationship negotiations now risk hitting an impasse if the UK government is able to get its draft internal market bill, which would undermine the terms of the Brexit deal, through Parliament. Pressure on sterling could mount further.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 11 Sep 2020
14 September, 2020 | GraniteShares
Tech was again a drag on markets leading to a fall of 2.51% in the S&P 500 while the FTSE 100 rose by 1.59%. Despite tech’s reversal, as pointed out by Michael Mackenzie in the FT, the Nasdaq 100 is still up nearly 60% from its March lows. There are still factors that are supportive of the sector, including the earnings yield, which, unlike in 2000, is comfortably above that of a 30-year Treasury bond. On the economic front, the UK-EU Future Relationship negotiations now risk hitting an impasse if the UK government is able to get its draft internal market bill, which would undermine the terms of the Brexit deal, through Parliament. Pressure on sterling could mount further.
A significant correction in tech stocks led to 2.31% weekly fall in the S&P 500, while in the UK, where chances of a trade deal with the EU are receding, the FTSE 100 was down 2.76%. The ‘Nasdaq whale’, the force behind the tech rally, has been identified: Softbank. The cover story in FTWeekend reported that Softbank has bought billions of dollars’ worth of equity options over the last month. The FT highlighted analysis by Goldman Sachs that the overall nominal value of calls on US stocks averaged $335 billion a day over the past two weeks, triple the rolling average in 2017 to 2019. One to follow closely over the coming weeks. Turning to economic indicators, the global PMIs for August were positive with strengthening growth in a number of sectors, led by healthcare, autos and real estate. U.S. nonfarm payroll employment rose by 1.4 million in August, and the unemployment rate fell to 8.4% from 10.2%, which means that 13.55 million people are ‘officially’ unemployed, i.e. actively seeking work.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 04 Sep 2020
07 September, 2020 | GraniteShares
A significant correction in tech stocks led to 2.31% weekly fall in the S&P 500, while in the UK, where chances of a trade deal with the EU are receding, the FTSE 100 was down 2.76%. The ‘Nasdaq whale’, the force behind the tech rally, has been identified: Softbank. The cover story in FTWeekend reported that Softbank has bought billions of dollars’ worth of equity options over the last month. The FT highlighted analysis by Goldman Sachs that the overall nominal value of calls on US stocks averaged $335 billion a day over the past two weeks, triple the rolling average in 2017 to 2019. One to follow closely over the coming weeks. Turning to economic indicators, the global PMIs for August were positive with strengthening growth in a number of sectors, led by healthcare, autos and real estate. U.S. nonfarm payroll employment rose by 1.4 million in August, and the unemployment rate fell to 8.4% from 10.2%, which means that 13.55 million people are ‘officially’ unemployed, i.e. actively seeking work.
The S&P 500 ended the week up 3.26%, led by the communication services and technology sectors, and the FTSE 100 was down 0.64%. The big event of the week was the annual Jackson Hole conference, at which Fed Chair, Jerome Powell signalled average inflation targeting, “Following periods when inflation has been running below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.” This change in policy was framed in the context of several factors including falling expectations for the long-term potential growth rate of the economy and a strong labour market that did not trigger a “significant rise in inflation.”
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 28 Aug 2020
31 August, 2020 | GraniteShares
The S&P 500 ended the week up 3.26%, led by the communication services and technology sectors, and the FTSE 100 was down 0.64%. The big event of the week was the annual Jackson Hole conference, at which Fed Chair, Jerome Powell signalled average inflation targeting, “Following periods when inflation has been running below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.” This change in policy was framed in the context of several factors including falling expectations for the long-term potential growth rate of the economy and a strong labour market that did not trigger a “significant rise in inflation.”
The summer doldrums continued with the S&P 500 up 0.72% and the FTSE 100 down 1.45%. From a UK perspective, the seventh round of negotiations with the EU on a future partnership ended with little progress being made in key areas such as fisheries, governance, law enforcement, and mobility and social security coordination. Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, wrote on Twitter, “We are worried about the state of play of the negotiations with #UK. We do not see how we can have a better agreement if we leave the most difficult subjects to the end. We risk running out of time.” Separately, the Office for National Statistics published the latest public sector finance figures, not pretty reading. Debt stood at over £2 trillion at the end of July for the first time ever, representing 100.5% of gross domestic product (GDP), an increase of 20.4 percentage points compared with the same point last year and the first time it has been above 100% since March 1961. Inflation is down the pike
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 21 Aug 2020
24 August, 2020 | GraniteShares
The summer doldrums continued with the S&P 500 up 0.72% and the FTSE 100 down 1.45%. From a UK perspective, the seventh round of negotiations with the EU on a future partnership ended with little progress being made in key areas such as fisheries, governance, law enforcement, and mobility and social security coordination. Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, wrote on Twitter, “We are worried about the state of play of the negotiations with #UK. We do not see how we can have a better agreement if we leave the most difficult subjects to the end. We risk running out of time.” Separately, the Office for National Statistics published the latest public sector finance figures, not pretty reading. Debt stood at over £2 trillion at the end of July for the first time ever, representing 100.5% of gross domestic product (GDP), an increase of 20.4 percentage points compared with the same point last year and the first time it has been above 100% since March 1961. Inflation is down the pike
It was a relatively quiet week in markets with the S&P 500 up 0.64% and the FTSE 100 0.96%. The VIX remains below 25 and ended the week at 22.05. The economic backdrop remains challenging with U.S. not lifting tariffs on European goods, ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the lingering pandemic. The UK recorded an estimated 20.4% fall in GDP in 2Q 2020, the worst of any major economy, and way above the Netherlands 8.5% fall – its worst on record. In contrast, the U.S. consumer has not disappointed and U.S. retail sales are now back to their pre-pandemic levels, but many have highlighted that August may see a contraction with the removal of $600 per week federal unemployment cheque. U.S. manufacturing has recovered quickly but remains 8% below its December peak.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 14 Aug 2020
17 August, 2020 | GraniteShares
It was a relatively quiet week in markets with the S&P 500 up 0.64% and the FTSE 100 0.96%. The VIX remains below 25 and ended the week at 22.05. The economic backdrop remains challenging with U.S. not lifting tariffs on European goods, ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the lingering pandemic. The UK recorded an estimated 20.4% fall in GDP in 2Q 2020, the worst of any major economy, and way above the Netherlands 8.5% fall – its worst on record. In contrast, the U.S. consumer has not disappointed and U.S. retail sales are now back to their pre-pandemic levels, but many have highlighted that August may see a contraction with the removal of $600 per week federal unemployment cheque. U.S. manufacturing has recovered quickly but remains 8% below its December peak.
European stock markets finished higher last week with the Stoxx 600 Index increasing 2.2%, the FTSE 100 Index climbing 2.3% and the DAX index rising 2.9%. Most of these gains occurred Monday, following stronger-than-expected IHS Markit, Caixin and ISM manufacturing index releases in Europe, China and the U.S., respectively. The BoE’s MPC met last week leaving rates unchanged and reaffirming its commitment to its aggressive stimulative monetary policy in light of uncertainties produced by the ongoing coronavirus pandemic while, surprisingly, at the same time improving its economic growth expectations. The Euro, 0.8% higher against U.S. dollar through Thursday, gave up most of those gains on Friday after a much-stronger-than-expected U.S. employment situation report. The pound weakened 0.3% against the U.S. dollar and the euro. UK economic data for the upcoming week include GDP, industrial and manufacturing output and job figures all on Wednesday. EU economic data for the upcoming week include industrial production (Wednesday), ZEW indicator of economic sentiment (Tuesday) and second reading of GDP (Friday).
Against a backdrop of better-than-expected economic reports and earning results and indications new Covid-19 cases may be falling, U.S. stock market all moved higher again last week despite concerns over increased U.S.-China frictions and stalled congressional progess on additional coronavirus relief funds. Better-than-expected factory order and ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing index numbers combined with a lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims number and a stronger-than-expected payroll report helped move U.S. equity markets higher. Earning results reported last week were predominantly positive also helping move equity markets higher. Early-in-the-week optimism that congress would reach agreement on additional coronavirus-related relief funds faded as the week ended with no progress, but was slightly ameliorated with the Trump administration announcing the President may issue executive orders to extend existing programs. Both the U.S. dollar and the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate moved off their lows reached earlier in the week on stronger-than-expected economic reports and signs the number of new Covid-19 cases may be decreasing. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite index each increased 2.5% to 3,351.28 and 11,010.98, respectively. the 10-year U.S. interest rate increased 4 bps to 57bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) was unchanged.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 07 Aug 2020
10 August, 2020 | GraniteShares
European stock markets finished higher last week with the Stoxx 600 Index increasing 2.2%, the FTSE 100 Index climbing 2.3% and the DAX index rising 2.9%. Most of these gains occurred Monday, following stronger-than-expected IHS Markit, Caixin and ISM manufacturing index releases in Europe, China and the U.S., respectively. The BoE’s MPC met last week leaving rates unchanged and reaffirming its commitment to its aggressive stimulative monetary policy in light of uncertainties produced by the ongoing coronavirus pandemic while, surprisingly, at the same time improving its economic growth expectations. The Euro, 0.8% higher against U.S. dollar through Thursday, gave up most of those gains on Friday after a much-stronger-than-expected U.S. employment situation report. The pound weakened 0.3% against the U.S. dollar and the euro. UK economic data for the upcoming week include GDP, industrial and manufacturing output and job figures all on Wednesday. EU economic data for the upcoming week include industrial production (Wednesday), ZEW indicator of economic sentiment (Tuesday) and second reading of GDP (Friday).
Against a backdrop of better-than-expected economic reports and earning results and indications new Covid-19 cases may be falling, U.S. stock market all moved higher again last week despite concerns over increased U.S.-China frictions and stalled congressional progess on additional coronavirus relief funds. Better-than-expected factory order and ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing index numbers combined with a lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims number and a stronger-than-expected payroll report helped move U.S. equity markets higher. Earning results reported last week were predominantly positive also helping move equity markets higher. Early-in-the-week optimism that congress would reach agreement on additional coronavirus-related relief funds faded as the week ended with no progress, but was slightly ameliorated with the Trump administration announcing the President may issue executive orders to extend existing programs. Both the U.S. dollar and the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate moved off their lows reached earlier in the week on stronger-than-expected economic reports and signs the number of new Covid-19 cases may be decreasing. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite index each increased 2.5% to 3,351.28 and 11,010.98, respectively. the 10-year U.S. interest rate increased 4 bps to 57bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) was unchanged.
It was a week of sharp contrasts: strong numbers from tech giants, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, on the one hand counterbalanced by significant falls in GDP in the U.S. and eurozone combined with growing concerns about the pandemic. On Friday, the World Health Organization reported a record increase in global coronavirus cases, with the total rising by 292,527, and with Brazil, the U.S., India and South Africa having the biggest increases. In Europe, there has been an uptick in infections, which, in the UK, has led Boris Johnson to postpone plans to re-open high-risk venues such as casinos, as well as the government imposing new quarantine conditions on people travelling into the UK from Spain. Against this backdrop, it is hardly surprising that Willie Walsh, the CEO of IAG, which announced a €2.75 billion rights issue, indicated that he doesn’t think air travel will return to pre-Covid levels until 2023. The banks too face a challenging environment and the ECB this week asked that banks not pay dividends or buy back shares at least until January, three months longer than initially indicated, and expects banks “to exercise extreme moderation on variable remuneration to conserve capital in crisis”. It will review its position in Q4, as will the Bank of England, which indicated that it would conduct a review of any plans by the UK’s biggest banks to pay dividends.
The S&P 500 rose on the week driven by the strong quarterly results from the tech giants, which will probably lead to even closer scrutiny from politicians and regulators looking at anti-competitive behaviour. In contrast, the FTSE 100 fell as quarterly results from the blue chips reflected the difficulties facing old economy stocks across sectors such as banks and oil and gas. There were some bright spots, BAE Systems reinstated its dividend and the miners are seeing good levels of demand across different commodities.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 31 July 2020
03 August, 2020 | GraniteShares
It was a week of sharp contrasts: strong numbers from tech giants, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, on the one hand counterbalanced by significant falls in GDP in the U.S. and eurozone combined with growing concerns about the pandemic. On Friday, the World Health Organization reported a record increase in global coronavirus cases, with the total rising by 292,527, and with Brazil, the U.S., India and South Africa having the biggest increases. In Europe, there has been an uptick in infections, which, in the UK, has led Boris Johnson to postpone plans to re-open high-risk venues such as casinos, as well as the government imposing new quarantine conditions on people travelling into the UK from Spain. Against this backdrop, it is hardly surprising that Willie Walsh, the CEO of IAG, which announced a €2.75 billion rights issue, indicated that he doesn’t think air travel will return to pre-Covid levels until 2023. The banks too face a challenging environment and the ECB this week asked that banks not pay dividends or buy back shares at least until January, three months longer than initially indicated, and expects banks “to exercise extreme moderation on variable remuneration to conserve capital in crisis”. It will review its position in Q4, as will the Bank of England, which indicated that it would conduct a review of any plans by the UK’s biggest banks to pay dividends.
The S&P 500 rose on the week driven by the strong quarterly results from the tech giants, which will probably lead to even closer scrutiny from politicians and regulators looking at anti-competitive behaviour. In contrast, the FTSE 100 fell as quarterly results from the blue chips reflected the difficulties facing old economy stocks across sectors such as banks and oil and gas. There were some bright spots, BAE Systems reinstated its dividend and the miners are seeing good levels of demand across different commodities.
Solid quarterly numbers from the big tech stocks were not enough to keep markets ticking higher, but, after such a euphoric rally in markets since March, it perhaps not surprising that sellers have started to outweigh the buyers. Apart from the speed of the rise, there are plenty of factors to make investors nervous. First, there are growing U.S.- China tensions, which took a turn for the worse with the tit-for-tat closing of consulates in Houston and Chengdu.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 24 July 2020
27 July, 2020 | GraniteShares
Solid quarterly numbers from the big tech stocks were not enough to keep markets ticking higher, but, after such a euphoric rally in markets since March, it perhaps not surprising that sellers have started to outweigh the buyers. Apart from the speed of the rise, there are plenty of factors to make investors nervous. First, there are growing U.S.- China tensions, which took a turn for the worse with the tit-for-tat closing of consulates in Houston and Chengdu.
Investors hit the pause button on tech stocks… Netflix disappoints.
Some of the challenges ahead were highlighted in Q2 results from the U.S. banks, which announced significant provisions for loan losses. U.S. retail sales rose 7.5% month-on-month in June, however analysts are concerned that the end of the Federal $600 per week boost for the unemployed later this month will dampen consumer spending. Spending will also be affected by the possibility of renewed lockdowns, Johns Hopkins University reported a growing number of confirmed coronavirus cases, with Texas hitting 317.8k and Florida 327.2k on 17 July, up 127% and 166% respectively since 26 June. The UK’s OBR indicated that the UK is on track to record a fall in output of more than 10% in 2020. Looking at the government’s financing requirements, in its central scenario, the OBR estimates the government will need to raise around £1.4 trillion over the next five years or 12 per cent of cumulative GDP. Companies, too, are also borrowing record amounts, see chart below.
Both the FTSE 100 and S&P 500 were up on the week, in the case of the latter, the usual suspects did not drive performance. Netflix’s share price fell sharply after reported Q2 earnings of $1.59 versus guidance of $1.81 and expectations for subscriber growth of only 2.5 million in Q3. With the exception of Apple, the other tech-related stocks tracked by ETPs also fell over the week, which started on Monday with some technical analysts getting signals of a potential reversal in the Nasdaq. In UK markets, optimism around the Oxford vaccine helped take AstraZeneca above £90. The miners and oil majors were also in demand. Rolls-Royce and the banks were the laggards.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 17 July 2020
20 July, 2020 | GraniteShares
Investors hit the pause button on tech stocks… Netflix disappoints.
Some of the challenges ahead were highlighted in Q2 results from the U.S. banks, which announced significant provisions for loan losses. U.S. retail sales rose 7.5% month-on-month in June, however analysts are concerned that the end of the Federal $600 per week boost for the unemployed later this month will dampen consumer spending. Spending will also be affected by the possibility of renewed lockdowns, Johns Hopkins University reported a growing number of confirmed coronavirus cases, with Texas hitting 317.8k and Florida 327.2k on 17 July, up 127% and 166% respectively since 26 June. The UK’s OBR indicated that the UK is on track to record a fall in output of more than 10% in 2020. Looking at the government’s financing requirements, in its central scenario, the OBR estimates the government will need to raise around £1.4 trillion over the next five years or 12 per cent of cumulative GDP. Companies, too, are also borrowing record amounts, see chart below.
Both the FTSE 100 and S&P 500 were up on the week, in the case of the latter, the usual suspects did not drive performance. Netflix’s share price fell sharply after reported Q2 earnings of $1.59 versus guidance of $1.81 and expectations for subscriber growth of only 2.5 million in Q3. With the exception of Apple, the other tech-related stocks tracked by ETPs also fell over the week, which started on Monday with some technical analysts getting signals of a potential reversal in the Nasdaq. In UK markets, optimism around the Oxford vaccine helped take AstraZeneca above £90. The miners and oil majors were also in demand. Rolls-Royce and the banks were the laggards.
Put on your red pants Elon, next stop S&P 500?
The S&P 500 rose by 1.8% over the week, the FTSE 100 was down 1%, while the VIX fell by 1.4%, closing at 27.29. With the listing of GraniteShares ETPs on U.S. tech leaders, this week’s comments are focused mostly on the U.S. The U.S. stocks tracked by GraniteShares, including Netflix and NVIDIA, continued to be among the principal drivers of index returns, while sectors such as energy, real estate and industrials were among the laggards. Tesla remains very much in the limelight, with analyst attention focusing on the quarterly results due on 22 July, expectations are of a fourth successive quarterly profit, one of the criteria for inclusion in the S&P 500, together with factors such as a market capitalisation of at least $8.2 billion and a public float of at least 50% of its shares outstanding. A suivre.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 10 July 2020
13 July, 2020 | GraniteShares
Put on your red pants Elon, next stop S&P 500?
The S&P 500 rose by 1.8% over the week, the FTSE 100 was down 1%, while the VIX fell by 1.4%, closing at 27.29. With the listing of GraniteShares ETPs on U.S. tech leaders, this week’s comments are focused mostly on the U.S. The U.S. stocks tracked by GraniteShares, including Netflix and NVIDIA, continued to be among the principal drivers of index returns, while sectors such as energy, real estate and industrials were among the laggards. Tesla remains very much in the limelight, with analyst attention focusing on the quarterly results due on 22 July, expectations are of a fourth successive quarterly profit, one of the criteria for inclusion in the S&P 500, together with factors such as a market capitalisation of at least $8.2 billion and a public float of at least 50% of its shares outstanding. A suivre.
Latest nonfarm payrolls provide another boost
The S&P 500 rose by 4% over the week, the FTSE 100 was flat, while the VIX fell by 20%, closing at 27.68. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 4.8 million in June, following May’s 2.7 million increase. Employment in leisure and hospitality rose by over 2 million. While the figure is clearly positive, analysts urged caution because the initial claims figure remains persistently high, the latest figure being over 1.4 million, and the total employment figure is still over 14.5 million less than in February. Related to all of this, Dr Anthony Fauci, a member of the White House’s Coronavirus Task Force, warned Congress on Tuesday that the U.S. could see 100,000 Covid-19 infections a day if current spikes are not contained. Elsewhere, the Chinese Caixin/Markit services PMI increased to 58.4 in June from 55.0 in May and the Bundestag authorised the Bundesbank to continue to implement the PSPP programme.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 3 July 2020
06 July, 2020 | GraniteShares
Latest nonfarm payrolls provide another boost
The S&P 500 rose by 4% over the week, the FTSE 100 was flat, while the VIX fell by 20%, closing at 27.68. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 4.8 million in June, following May’s 2.7 million increase. Employment in leisure and hospitality rose by over 2 million. While the figure is clearly positive, analysts urged caution because the initial claims figure remains persistently high, the latest figure being over 1.4 million, and the total employment figure is still over 14.5 million less than in February. Related to all of this, Dr Anthony Fauci, a member of the White House’s Coronavirus Task Force, warned Congress on Tuesday that the U.S. could see 100,000 Covid-19 infections a day if current spikes are not contained. Elsewhere, the Chinese Caixin/Markit services PMI increased to 58.4 in June from 55.0 in May and the Bundestag authorised the Bundesbank to continue to implement the PSPP programme.
Markets turn red on new tariff concerns
Over the week, the S&P 500 fell by 2.9% and the FTSE 100 by 2.1%, while the VIX fell by 1.1%, closing at 34.73. Investors were made uneasy by various red flags ranging from the initial jobless claims number in the U.S. to aerospace-related trade tensions between the EU and U.S. On Wednesday, the news broke that the U.S. is considering new tariffs on $3.1 billion of exports from France, Germany, Spain and the UK. The dispute relates to illegal subsidies to Airbus, and the EU is seeking authorisation from the WTO to impose tariffs on U.S. goods in retaliation for the U.S. illegal subsidies to Boeing. The risk of a tit-for-tat trade dispute is not good for business or markets when trade is already under pressure (see chart). The continued surge in new coronavirus cases in the U.S. is also of concern. This is leading to policy reversals, on Friday, for example, Texas Governor, Greg Abbott, and Florida Governor, Ron DeSantis, closed bars, and in Texas restaurant capacity was scaled back to 50%.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 26 June 2020
29 June, 2020 | GraniteShares
Markets turn red on new tariff concerns
Over the week, the S&P 500 fell by 2.9% and the FTSE 100 by 2.1%, while the VIX fell by 1.1%, closing at 34.73. Investors were made uneasy by various red flags ranging from the initial jobless claims number in the U.S. to aerospace-related trade tensions between the EU and U.S. On Wednesday, the news broke that the U.S. is considering new tariffs on $3.1 billion of exports from France, Germany, Spain and the UK. The dispute relates to illegal subsidies to Airbus, and the EU is seeking authorisation from the WTO to impose tariffs on U.S. goods in retaliation for the U.S. illegal subsidies to Boeing. The risk of a tit-for-tat trade dispute is not good for business or markets when trade is already under pressure (see chart). The continued surge in new coronavirus cases in the U.S. is also of concern. This is leading to policy reversals, on Friday, for example, Texas Governor, Greg Abbott, and Florida Governor, Ron DeSantis, closed bars, and in Texas restaurant capacity was scaled back to 50%.
Markets going on a summer holiday despite growing debt pile
The Bank of England announced that it is increasing the target stock of purchased UK government bonds by an additional £100 bn, to take the total asset purchases to £745 bn. It also indicated, “The emerging evidence suggests that the fall in global and UK GDP in 2020 Q2 will be less severe than set out in the May Report.” Meanwhile, the ONS released May’s public sector finance figures, which showed that debt (public sector net debt ex public sector banks) was 100.9% of GDP at the end of May, the first time it has exceeded that level since March 1963*. Meanwhile, there is evidence that Covid-19 is far from beaten, Arizona, Florida, South Carolina and Texas were among the states that saw record increases in new coronavirus infections, while in Beijing there was a spike in new cases. Against this backdrop, investors focused on the positives, such as the 17.7% monthly increase in U.S. retail sales. Over the week, the S&P 500 rose by 1.9% and the FTSE 100 by 3%, while the VIX fell by 2.7%, closing at 35.12.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 19 June 2020
21 June, 2020 | GraniteShares
Markets going on a summer holiday despite growing debt pile
The Bank of England announced that it is increasing the target stock of purchased UK government bonds by an additional £100 bn, to take the total asset purchases to £745 bn. It also indicated, “The emerging evidence suggests that the fall in global and UK GDP in 2020 Q2 will be less severe than set out in the May Report.” Meanwhile, the ONS released May’s public sector finance figures, which showed that debt (public sector net debt ex public sector banks) was 100.9% of GDP at the end of May, the first time it has exceeded that level since March 1963*. Meanwhile, there is evidence that Covid-19 is far from beaten, Arizona, Florida, South Carolina and Texas were among the states that saw record increases in new coronavirus infections, while in Beijing there was a spike in new cases. Against this backdrop, investors focused on the positives, such as the 17.7% monthly increase in U.S. retail sales. Over the week, the S&P 500 rose by 1.9% and the FTSE 100 by 3%, while the VIX fell by 2.7%, closing at 35.12.
Back on the big dipper
Suspect number one for the market weakness: a dovish Fed, which indicated that rates are on hold until the end of 2021. It is projecting a GDP fall of 6.5% for 2020 and an unemployment rate of 9.3% in the fourth quarter. Jerome Powell highlighted that “…you could see significant job growth in -- in coming months, as people return to their jobs, but you're still going to face probably an extended period where it will be difficult for many people to find work”. Powell’s comments at the press conference elicited a tweet from the White House, which started “The Federal Reserve is wrong so often. I see the numbers also, and do MUCH better than they do. We will have a very good Third Quarter, a great Fourth Quarter, and one of our best ever years in 2021….”
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 12 June 2020
15 June, 2020 | GraniteShares
Back on the big dipper
Suspect number one for the market weakness: a dovish Fed, which indicated that rates are on hold until the end of 2021. It is projecting a GDP fall of 6.5% for 2020 and an unemployment rate of 9.3% in the fourth quarter. Jerome Powell highlighted that “…you could see significant job growth in -- in coming months, as people return to their jobs, but you're still going to face probably an extended period where it will be difficult for many people to find work”. Powell’s comments at the press conference elicited a tweet from the White House, which started “The Federal Reserve is wrong so often. I see the numbers also, and do MUCH better than they do. We will have a very good Third Quarter, a great Fourth Quarter, and one of our best ever years in 2021….”
Gobsmacked!
Friday’s U.S. payrolls number defied all predictions with an increase in jobs of 2.5 million versus a consensus forecast for a fall of 8 million. It is an indication that the U.S. economy may be recovering faster than expected, albeit there are still 15.2 million more people unemployed than in February. In Europe, the ECB on Thursday increased the PEPP by €600bn rather than predicted €500bn. All good for risk assets, which ended the week on a charge: the FTSE-100 closed at 6484.3, a weekly rise of 6.7%, and the S&P500 at 3191.5, a rise of 4.8%. OPEC+ reached a preliminary agreement to prolong the production cuts, which was bullish for oil with Brent closing the week at $41.97 and WTI at $38.95, levels last seen at the beginning of March. Perish the thought of selling in May…
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 5 June 2020
08 June, 2020 | GraniteShares
Gobsmacked!
Friday’s U.S. payrolls number defied all predictions with an increase in jobs of 2.5 million versus a consensus forecast for a fall of 8 million. It is an indication that the U.S. economy may be recovering faster than expected, albeit there are still 15.2 million more people unemployed than in February. In Europe, the ECB on Thursday increased the PEPP by €600bn rather than predicted €500bn. All good for risk assets, which ended the week on a charge: the FTSE-100 closed at 6484.3, a weekly rise of 6.7%, and the S&P500 at 3191.5, a rise of 4.8%. OPEC+ reached a preliminary agreement to prolong the production cuts, which was bullish for oil with Brent closing the week at $41.97 and WTI at $38.95, levels last seen at the beginning of March. Perish the thought of selling in May…
Markets raring to go, economic data still on the brake pedal
The FTSE100 ended the week up over 3% and started the week with a 4.3% rise on Monday which was largely sentiment driven as investors look ahead to the opening up of economies. Broad sentiment was helped by remarks from Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, on CBS’s “60 Minutes” who said people should not “bet against the American economy,” and “there’s no limit to what we can do.”
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 22 May 2020
26 May, 2020 | GraniteShares
Markets raring to go, economic data still on the brake pedal
The FTSE100 ended the week up over 3% and started the week with a 4.3% rise on Monday which was largely sentiment driven as investors look ahead to the opening up of economies. Broad sentiment was helped by remarks from Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, on CBS’s “60 Minutes” who said people should not “bet against the American economy,” and “there’s no limit to what we can do.”
The chart for U.S. retail sales below tells the story and reflects what is happening globally. The consumer is reining in discretionary expenditure. It is hardly surprising in the context of the prevailing uncertainty, and as J-S Jacques, Rio Tinto’s CEO, highlighted in his Q&A at the Bank of America Metals Conference on 12 May, that while in China the industrial side was strong “the service economy, the leisure part of the economy, is under pressure and will take time to return to full activity.”
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 15 May 2020
18 May, 2020 | GraniteShares
The chart for U.S. retail sales below tells the story and reflects what is happening globally. The consumer is reining in discretionary expenditure. It is hardly surprising in the context of the prevailing uncertainty, and as J-S Jacques, Rio Tinto’s CEO, highlighted in his Q&A at the Bank of America Metals Conference on 12 May, that while in China the industrial side was strong “the service economy, the leisure part of the economy, is under pressure and will take time to return to full activity.”
More than 30 million Americans have filed for unemployment benefits in the past six weeks. James Knightley at ING suggests that we are on course for an unemployment rate of 22% but as he highlights a third of Americans between the age of 18-65 are not classified as employed or unemployed, which means that less than half working age Americans may be earning a wage next month. No wonder those facing elections are keen to get the economy started again regardless of any other costs
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 1 May 2020
04 May, 2020 | GraniteShares
More than 30 million Americans have filed for unemployment benefits in the past six weeks. James Knightley at ING suggests that we are on course for an unemployment rate of 22% but as he highlights a third of Americans between the age of 18-65 are not classified as employed or unemployed, which means that less than half working age Americans may be earning a wage next month. No wonder those facing elections are keen to get the economy started again regardless of any other costs
The chart below tells the story. WTI May futures moved into negative territory ahead of expiry as lack of storage capacity meant that holders of futures had to pay offload their exposure. Will it happen again? The CME isn’t ruling it out, announcing on 21 April that it will “switch the options pricing and valuation model to Bachelier to accommodate negative prices in the underlying futures.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 24 April 2020
27 April, 2020 | GraniteShares
The chart below tells the story. WTI May futures moved into negative territory ahead of expiry as lack of storage capacity meant that holders of futures had to pay offload their exposure. Will it happen again? The CME isn’t ruling it out, announcing on 21 April that it will “switch the options pricing and valuation model to Bachelier to accommodate negative prices in the underlying futures.
The speed of slowdown is forcing governments and central banks into quick and decisive active. On 9 April, the US Treasury and Federal Reserve announced new and expanded lending programmes to provide up to $2.3 trillion in financing to support workers, businesses and municipalities impacted by the pandemic.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 9 April 2020
13 April, 2020 | GraniteShares
The speed of slowdown is forcing governments and central banks into quick and decisive active. On 9 April, the US Treasury and Federal Reserve announced new and expanded lending programmes to provide up to $2.3 trillion in financing to support workers, businesses and municipalities impacted by the pandemic.
The reality check of the impact of the coronavirus on the economy started to hit home as the US data showed record weekly rise in new jobless claims, the California figure of 858,000 topping the all-time high for the US. In Europe, the Eurozone Markit PMI figures, published on Friday, paint a picture of savage downturn, falling from 51.6 in February to a record low of 27.9, while Friday’s UK PMI figures for March revealed the worst decline on record.
Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 3 April 2020
06 April, 2020 | GraniteShares
The reality check of the impact of the coronavirus on the economy started to hit home as the US data showed record weekly rise in new jobless claims, the California figure of 858,000 topping the all-time high for the US. In Europe, the Eurozone Markit PMI figures, published on Friday, paint a picture of savage downturn, falling from 51.6 in February to a record low of 27.9, while Friday’s UK PMI figures for March revealed the worst decline on record.
