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U.S. stock markets moved higher once again last week with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes again reaching record highs. Stock markets were buoyed by increasing expectations of passage of a $1.9 trillion stimulus package, strong corporate earnings reports, a rallying energy sector propelled by higher oil prices and positive news regarding vaccine availability. Fed Chairman Powell’s comments on Wednesday stating the economy was still struggling and in need of more than accomodative monetary policy helped weaken the U.S. dollar and push 10-year U.S. Treasury rates higher. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.2% to 3,934.83, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.7% to 14,095.47, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 4bps to 1.21% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.6%.

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 12 Feb 2021

February 16, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets moved higher once again last week with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes again reaching record highs. Stock markets were buoyed by increasing expectations of passage of a $1.9 trillion stimulus package, strong corporate earnings reports, a rallying energy sector propelled by higher oil prices and positive news regarding vaccine availability. Fed Chairman Powell’s comments on Wednesday stating the economy was still struggling and in need of more than accomodative monetary policy helped weaken the U.S. dollar and push 10-year U.S. Treasury rates higher. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.2% to 3,934.83, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.7% to 14,095.47, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 4bps to 1.21% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.6%.

U.S. stock markets moved higher last week with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes reaching new record highs. Steps taken by the Democratic controlled House and Senate set the stage for passage of a $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package were the primary reasons for last week’s gains. Strong earnings reports in tech and energy and material stocks and a slightly better than-expected employment situation report also helped move stock markets higher. Increased expectations of the passage of the $1.9 trillion stimulus package also acted to move 10-year Treasury rates higher and helped subdue the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 4.7% to 3,886.83, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 6.0% to 13,856.30, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 11bps to 1.17% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.5%

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 05 Feb 2021

February 09, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets moved higher last week with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes reaching new record highs. Steps taken by the Democratic controlled House and Senate set the stage for passage of a $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package were the primary reasons for last week’s gains. Strong earnings reports in tech and energy and material stocks and a slightly better than-expected employment situation report also helped move stock markets higher. Increased expectations of the passage of the $1.9 trillion stimulus package also acted to move 10-year Treasury rates higher and helped subdue the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 4.7% to 3,886.83, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 6.0% to 13,856.30, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 11bps to 1.17% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.5%

U.S. stock markets were higher last week with stock prices supported by strong economic reports and hopes of additional stimulus spending. Slightly lower-than-expected jobless claims, a strongerthan-expected PMI Composite Flash Index release and much better-than-expected housing starts and permits and existing home sales combined with Janet Yellen’s call for additional, larger stimulus spending and President Biden’s announcement of a $1.9 trillion stimulus package helped move stock prices higher through most of the week. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed the week at a record high elevated by strong performance by Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Netflix while the S&P 500 Index, hurt by poor IBM and Intel earnings reports, closed just off its record high set Thursday. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 2.0% to 3,841.47, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 4.2% to 13,543.06, the 10-year U.S. Treasury was unchanged at 1.09% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.6%.

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 22 Jan 2021

January 25, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets were higher last week with stock prices supported by strong economic reports and hopes of additional stimulus spending. Slightly lower-than-expected jobless claims, a strongerthan-expected PMI Composite Flash Index release and much better-than-expected housing starts and permits and existing home sales combined with Janet Yellen’s call for additional, larger stimulus spending and President Biden’s announcement of a $1.9 trillion stimulus package helped move stock prices higher through most of the week. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed the week at a record high elevated by strong performance by Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Netflix while the S&P 500 Index, hurt by poor IBM and Intel earnings reports, closed just off its record high set Thursday. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 2.0% to 3,841.47, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 4.2% to 13,543.06, the 10-year U.S. Treasury was unchanged at 1.09% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.6%.

Finishing lower on the week, U.S. stock markets were pressured by weaker-than-expected economic numbers and perhaps concerns of lofty valuations and rising interest rates. Larger-than-expected jobless claims and an unexpected decline in retail sales combined with disappointing bank earnings reports and weak tech stock performance set the stage for weaker stock markets. President-elect Biden’s stimulus plan announcement late Thursday failed to support stock prices with the news seemingly already priced in. Though 10-year U.S. Treasury rates were slightly lower on the week, they maintained levels greater than 1%, perhaps indicating continued concern about the low level of real rates and prospective inflation. The U.S. dollar strengthened last week, with most of the increase occuring Friday. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index decreased 1.5% to 3,768.25, the Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 1.5% to 12,998.50, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 3bps to 1.09% and the dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.8%.

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 15 Jan 2021

January 19, 2021 | GraniteShares
Finishing lower on the week, U.S. stock markets were pressured by weaker-than-expected economic numbers and perhaps concerns of lofty valuations and rising interest rates. Larger-than-expected jobless claims and an unexpected decline in retail sales combined with disappointing bank earnings reports and weak tech stock performance set the stage for weaker stock markets. President-elect Biden’s stimulus plan announcement late Thursday failed to support stock prices with the news seemingly already priced in. Though 10-year U.S. Treasury rates were slightly lower on the week, they maintained levels greater than 1%, perhaps indicating continued concern about the low level of real rates and prospective inflation. The U.S. dollar strengthened last week, with most of the increase occuring Friday. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index decreased 1.5% to 3,768.25, the Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 1.5% to 12,998.50, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 3bps to 1.09% and the dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.8%.

U.S. stock markets moved higher last week after starting the week and the year with a sharp selloff. Coronavirus-related concerns and uncertainty surrounding Georgia Senate runoff elections present on Monday were diminished after Democrat wins in Georia and Joe Biden being declared the next president of the U.S. Expectations of increased stimulus spending and Saudi Arabia’s announcement it would unilaterally reduce oil production helped power oil prices, global stock markets and longer-term U.S. interest rates higher while also strengthening the U.S. dollar despite a weaker-than-expected employment report. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.8% to 3,824.68, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 2.4% to 13,201.98, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate jumped 20bps to 1.12% and the dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened .2%.

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 08 Jan 2021

January 11, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock markets moved higher last week after starting the week and the year with a sharp selloff. Coronavirus-related concerns and uncertainty surrounding Georgia Senate runoff elections present on Monday were diminished after Democrat wins in Georia and Joe Biden being declared the next president of the U.S. Expectations of increased stimulus spending and Saudi Arabia’s announcement it would unilaterally reduce oil production helped power oil prices, global stock markets and longer-term U.S. interest rates higher while also strengthening the U.S. dollar despite a weaker-than-expected employment report. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.8% to 3,824.68, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 2.4% to 13,201.98, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate jumped 20bps to 1.12% and the dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened .2%.

U.S. stock market moved higher last week with the S&P 500 closing at a record high and up over 16% on the year. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed just short of its record high finishing the year 43% higher. Mixed economic news – inlcuding lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims and disappointing pending home sales numbers - was offset by President Trump’s signing of the $900 billion stimulus package though congressional resistance to increased individual stimulus checks may have limited stock market gains. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.4% to 3,756.07, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 0.7% to 12,888.28, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 1bp to 92bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.4%.

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 31 Dec 2020

January 04, 2021 | GraniteShares
U.S. stock market moved higher last week with the S&P 500 closing at a record high and up over 16% on the year. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed just short of its record high finishing the year 43% higher. Mixed economic news – inlcuding lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims and disappointing pending home sales numbers - was offset by President Trump’s signing of the $900 billion stimulus package though congressional resistance to increased individual stimulus checks may have limited stock market gains. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.4% to 3,756.07, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 0.7% to 12,888.28, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 1bp to 92bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.4%.

Despite greater-than-expected jobless claims, a larger-than expected decline in retail sales and increased restrictions resulting from rising Covid-19 cases, U.S. stock markets rose last week primarily on hopes of passage of a scaled-down fiscal stimulus package. Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine was approved for emergency use by the FDA on Friday while the first doses of Pfizer’s vaccine were administered Monday. The FOMC announcement following the completion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday was mainly as expected with no changes in interest rate policy or buyback programs, though the Fed did increase its GDP growth forecast for 2021 and scaled back slightly its forecasted GDP decline for 2020. The U.S. dollar weakened significantly last week with longer-term U.S. interest rates rising, resulting mainly from increased “risk-on” market sentiment supported by increased expectations of passage of a U.S. stimulus package before year-end. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.3% to 3,709.41, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 3.1% to 12,755.64, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 5bps to 95bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 1.1%.

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 18 Dec 2020

December 21, 2020 | GraniteShares
Despite greater-than-expected jobless claims, a larger-than expected decline in retail sales and increased restrictions resulting from rising Covid-19 cases, U.S. stock markets rose last week primarily on hopes of passage of a scaled-down fiscal stimulus package. Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine was approved for emergency use by the FDA on Friday while the first doses of Pfizer’s vaccine were administered Monday. The FOMC announcement following the completion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday was mainly as expected with no changes in interest rate policy or buyback programs, though the Fed did increase its GDP growth forecast for 2021 and scaled back slightly its forecasted GDP decline for 2020. The U.S. dollar weakened significantly last week with longer-term U.S. interest rates rising, resulting mainly from increased “risk-on” market sentiment supported by increased expectations of passage of a U.S. stimulus package before year-end. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.3% to 3,709.41, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 3.1% to 12,755.64, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 5bps to 95bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 1.1%.

Exchange traded products (ETPs) are investments that provide exposure to different asset classes such as equities, fixed income, commodities and foreign exchange. They are mostly passively managed, tracking an index or another underlying benchmark. ETPs are traded on stock exchanges such as London Stock Exchange. They trade and settle like shares in the market and provide continuous liquidity during market hours. Are you thinking about investing in ETPs? GraniteShares offers a wide range of short and leveraged single stock ETPs for sophisticated investors!

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology

Publication Type: Viewpoints , ETP & Industry

Everything You Need to Know About ETPs

December 16, 2020 | GraniteShares
Exchange traded products (ETPs) are investments that provide exposure to different asset classes such as equities, fixed income, commodities and foreign exchange. They are mostly passively managed, tracking an index or another underlying benchmark. ETPs are traded on stock exchanges such as London Stock Exchange. They trade and settle like shares in the market and provide continuous liquidity during market hours. Are you thinking about investing in ETPs? GraniteShares offers a wide range of short and leveraged single stock ETPs for sophisticated investors!

Rising Covid-19 infections and related restrictions, larger-than-expected jobless claims and faltering hopes of a stimulus package moved U.S. stock markets off their early-in-the-week record highs to finish lower on the week. Late Friday, after market close, the FDA approved emergency use of Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine with shipments expected to begin immediately while the UK began administering Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine Tuesday. The U.S. dollar strengthened last week mainly as a result of increased uncertainty of a U.S. stimulus package, the ECB announcing it would be expanding its buyback program and as result of a steep decline in the British pound due to stalled UK – EU trade talks. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index decreased 1.0% to 3,663.46, the Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 0.7% to 12,377.87, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 7bps to 9bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.3%

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 12 Dec 2020

December 14, 2020 | GraniteShares
Rising Covid-19 infections and related restrictions, larger-than-expected jobless claims and faltering hopes of a stimulus package moved U.S. stock markets off their early-in-the-week record highs to finish lower on the week. Late Friday, after market close, the FDA approved emergency use of Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine with shipments expected to begin immediately while the UK began administering Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine Tuesday. The U.S. dollar strengthened last week mainly as a result of increased uncertainty of a U.S. stimulus package, the ECB announcing it would be expanding its buyback program and as result of a steep decline in the British pound due to stalled UK – EU trade talks. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index decreased 1.0% to 3,663.46, the Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 0.7% to 12,377.87, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 7bps to 9bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) strengthened 0.3%

Week in review: Countdown starts to Tesla’s S&P 500 entry Despite good news on the vaccine front, with both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna showing efficacy rates of 95%, the FTSE 100 ended up 0.6% on the week and the S&P 500 down 0.8%. Investor enthusiasm was tempered by factors such as the ongoing increase in infection numbers, no progress on new stimulus measures in the U.S., and still no EU-UK trade deal. Negotiations on the latter were interrupted when a member of the EU team contracted coronavirus; could an extension to the transition period be in the offing if more time is needed to clinch a deal? Data releases in the U.S. included retail sales which rose 0.3% in October and industrial production, which saw manufacturing output increase 1% in October but still remains 5% below its February level. In Europe, November’s flash consumer confidence figures fell in both the euro area (2.1 points down) and the EU (2.2 points down). The latest UK public finance figures were released, debt hit 100.8% of GDP in October.

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 20 Nov 2020

November 23, 2020 | GraniteShares
Week in review: Countdown starts to Tesla’s S&P 500 entry Despite good news on the vaccine front, with both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna showing efficacy rates of 95%, the FTSE 100 ended up 0.6% on the week and the S&P 500 down 0.8%. Investor enthusiasm was tempered by factors such as the ongoing increase in infection numbers, no progress on new stimulus measures in the U.S., and still no EU-UK trade deal. Negotiations on the latter were interrupted when a member of the EU team contracted coronavirus; could an extension to the transition period be in the offing if more time is needed to clinch a deal? Data releases in the U.S. included retail sales which rose 0.3% in October and industrial production, which saw manufacturing output increase 1% in October but still remains 5% below its February level. In Europe, November’s flash consumer confidence figures fell in both the euro area (2.1 points down) and the EU (2.2 points down). The latest UK public finance figures were released, debt hit 100.8% of GDP in October.

Week in review: Cyclicals back in the limelight Investor reaction to the news on Pfizer’s vaccine on Monday sent cyclical stocks, sharply higher, with Rolls-Royce leading the pack rising 44% on the day. Over the week, investors’ enthusiasm became more muted as the challenges involved in manufacturing and distributing the vaccine became evident. With the focus on cyclicals, the FTSE 100 ended up 6.9% on the week ahead of the S&P 500’s 2.2% rise. With no significant data releases, investors focused on the Fed’s Financial Stability Report, which highlighted the relatively high levels of leverage in hedge funds and life insurance companies in contrast to the historic lows as broker-dealers. Apart from the risks associated with the pandemic, it also looked at climate change and the risks to the European and U.S. financial systems of a no-trade-deal Brexit. Christine Lagarde’s speech “Monetary policy in a pandemic emergency” at the ECB Forum on Central Banking was closely followed, and included the current central banker’s mantra, “The right policy mix is essential. Fiscal policy has to remain at the centre of the stabilisation effort… and the Next Generation EU package should become operational without delay.”

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 13 Nov 2020

November 16, 2020 | GraniteShares
Week in review: Cyclicals back in the limelight Investor reaction to the news on Pfizer’s vaccine on Monday sent cyclical stocks, sharply higher, with Rolls-Royce leading the pack rising 44% on the day. Over the week, investors’ enthusiasm became more muted as the challenges involved in manufacturing and distributing the vaccine became evident. With the focus on cyclicals, the FTSE 100 ended up 6.9% on the week ahead of the S&P 500’s 2.2% rise. With no significant data releases, investors focused on the Fed’s Financial Stability Report, which highlighted the relatively high levels of leverage in hedge funds and life insurance companies in contrast to the historic lows as broker-dealers. Apart from the risks associated with the pandemic, it also looked at climate change and the risks to the European and U.S. financial systems of a no-trade-deal Brexit. Christine Lagarde’s speech “Monetary policy in a pandemic emergency” at the ECB Forum on Central Banking was closely followed, and included the current central banker’s mantra, “The right policy mix is essential. Fiscal policy has to remain at the centre of the stabilisation effort… and the Next Generation EU package should become operational without delay.”

Week in review: Markets on a charge as U.S. election results come in Markets had their best week since March with the S&P 500 up 7.3% and FTSE 100 up 6.0% as investors digested the implications of the unfolding election results in the U.S. In terms of the main event, on Saturday, the result in Pennsylvania meant that Joe Biden had secured the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidential election, while the make-up of the Senate looked like hinging on two run-off votes in Georgia in January. In economic news, the Bank of England increased its QE programme by £150bn, taking the total stock of bond purchases to £875bn. The Fed kept its policies unchanged and will continue to increase its “holdings of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities at least at the current pace” and Fed chair Powell underlined the importance of fiscal policy to support the economy. Data points of note during the week included the Caixin Manufacturing PMI which rose to 53.6 in October, its highest level since January 2011, in the U.S. total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 638,000 in October with gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction, while eurozone retail sales were down 2% in September highlighting the challenges ahead.

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 06 Nov 2020

November 09, 2020 | GraniteShares
Week in review: Markets on a charge as U.S. election results come in Markets had their best week since March with the S&P 500 up 7.3% and FTSE 100 up 6.0% as investors digested the implications of the unfolding election results in the U.S. In terms of the main event, on Saturday, the result in Pennsylvania meant that Joe Biden had secured the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidential election, while the make-up of the Senate looked like hinging on two run-off votes in Georgia in January. In economic news, the Bank of England increased its QE programme by £150bn, taking the total stock of bond purchases to £875bn. The Fed kept its policies unchanged and will continue to increase its “holdings of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities at least at the current pace” and Fed chair Powell underlined the importance of fiscal policy to support the economy. Data points of note during the week included the Caixin Manufacturing PMI which rose to 53.6 in October, its highest level since January 2011, in the U.S. total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 638,000 in October with gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction, while eurozone retail sales were down 2% in September highlighting the challenges ahead.

Markets had their worst week since March with the S&P 500 down 5.6% and FTSE 100 down 4.8%. The two factors behind the weakness are: the run-up to next week’s U.S. presidential election whose outcome remains finely balanced and the record numbers of pandemic-related infections being reported in a number of countries and the return of national lockdowns, notably with France on Friday. At this point, any backward looking positive economic data releases, particularly the positive GDP figures for 3Q20 in the U.S. and across a number of European countries, can be discounted. In this context at the ECB meeting on 29 October, Christine Lagarde’s statement indicated that based on the macroeconomic assessment in December, “the Governing Council will recalibrate its instruments, as appropriate, to respond to the unfolding situation and to ensure that financing conditions remain favourable to support the economic recovery and counteract the negative impact of the pandemic on the projected inflation path.” Prepare for further stimulus in December.

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 30 Oct 2020

November 02, 2020 | GraniteShares
Markets had their worst week since March with the S&P 500 down 5.6% and FTSE 100 down 4.8%. The two factors behind the weakness are: the run-up to next week’s U.S. presidential election whose outcome remains finely balanced and the record numbers of pandemic-related infections being reported in a number of countries and the return of national lockdowns, notably with France on Friday. At this point, any backward looking positive economic data releases, particularly the positive GDP figures for 3Q20 in the U.S. and across a number of European countries, can be discounted. In this context at the ECB meeting on 29 October, Christine Lagarde’s statement indicated that based on the macroeconomic assessment in December, “the Governing Council will recalibrate its instruments, as appropriate, to respond to the unfolding situation and to ensure that financing conditions remain favourable to support the economic recovery and counteract the negative impact of the pandemic on the projected inflation path.” Prepare for further stimulus in December.

Markets were becalmed over the week with the S&P 500 down 0.5% and FTSE 100 down 1%. The rising number of pandemic-related infections is a growing source of concern; in Europe, Spain and Italy have reported over one million cases and lockdown-like measures have been put in place across various parts of the UK. Against this backdrop, eurozone PMIs indicated a fall in business activity in October, which highlight the increasing risk of a contraction in GDP in the fourth quarter, perhaps a catalyst to help EU-UK trade negotiators surmount outstanding difficulties. In the U.S., the latest presidential debate was not decisive, although Biden’s energy misstep might cost some votes in shale-producing regions. Agreement on a relief package remains elusive with Senate Republicans reluctant to be seen to be meeting all Democrat demands. While U.S. jobless claims fell to 787,000, below the consensus figure of 870,000, thanks to the resumption of reporting from California, the figure still exceeds the 665,000 high in the great financial crisis indicating the ongoing fragility of the job market and the need for a package.

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 23 Oct 2020

October 26, 2020 | GraniteShares
Markets were becalmed over the week with the S&P 500 down 0.5% and FTSE 100 down 1%. The rising number of pandemic-related infections is a growing source of concern; in Europe, Spain and Italy have reported over one million cases and lockdown-like measures have been put in place across various parts of the UK. Against this backdrop, eurozone PMIs indicated a fall in business activity in October, which highlight the increasing risk of a contraction in GDP in the fourth quarter, perhaps a catalyst to help EU-UK trade negotiators surmount outstanding difficulties. In the U.S., the latest presidential debate was not decisive, although Biden’s energy misstep might cost some votes in shale-producing regions. Agreement on a relief package remains elusive with Senate Republicans reluctant to be seen to be meeting all Democrat demands. While U.S. jobless claims fell to 787,000, below the consensus figure of 870,000, thanks to the resumption of reporting from California, the figure still exceeds the 665,000 high in the great financial crisis indicating the ongoing fragility of the job market and the need for a package.

Week in review: BoJo ups the ante on trade talks, UK credit rating downgraded Friday saw the UK PM issue a statement indicating that the UK wanted “nothing more complicated than a Canada-style relationship, based on friendship and free trade”, however given the EU Summit on 15 October ruled out this possibility, “We should get ready for January 1 with arrangements that are more like Australia’s based on simple principles of global free trade.” Despite the goings-on, the FTSE ended up 1.5% on the day, but down 1.6% on the week, and, after the market close, Moody’s announced it was downgrading the UK to Aa3 stable on “low growth, high debt, and fractious policy environment”. Meanwhile, it was a quiet week over the Atlantic with the S&P 500 up 0.2%. For now at least investors do not appeared overly concerned by the worsening economic picture: initial jobless claims for the week ending 8 October were 898,000, industrial production fell 0.6 percent in September, its first decline after four consecutive months of gains. One bright spot, U.S, retail sales came in with a 1.9% increase in September. It was another week of tightening restrictions in Europe, which, in the UK at least, are proving more contentious than earlier in the year because of the associated economic and human costs.

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 16 Oct 2020

October 19, 2020 | GraniteShares
Week in review: BoJo ups the ante on trade talks, UK credit rating downgraded Friday saw the UK PM issue a statement indicating that the UK wanted “nothing more complicated than a Canada-style relationship, based on friendship and free trade”, however given the EU Summit on 15 October ruled out this possibility, “We should get ready for January 1 with arrangements that are more like Australia’s based on simple principles of global free trade.” Despite the goings-on, the FTSE ended up 1.5% on the day, but down 1.6% on the week, and, after the market close, Moody’s announced it was downgrading the UK to Aa3 stable on “low growth, high debt, and fractious policy environment”. Meanwhile, it was a quiet week over the Atlantic with the S&P 500 up 0.2%. For now at least investors do not appeared overly concerned by the worsening economic picture: initial jobless claims for the week ending 8 October were 898,000, industrial production fell 0.6 percent in September, its first decline after four consecutive months of gains. One bright spot, U.S, retail sales came in with a 1.9% increase in September. It was another week of tightening restrictions in Europe, which, in the UK at least, are proving more contentious than earlier in the year because of the associated economic and human costs.

The week saw the U.S. President leave hospital, kill off any chances of a stimulus package before the election then changing his mind urging Congress to pass piecemeal aid packages, before announcing he would resume rallies in key states. Meanwhile in a parallel universe, the significant move in the Rolls-Royce share price came after it hit a 52-week low on 2 October, and, yes, the UK’s FCA announced that crypto derivatives would be banned for retail consumers from January 2021. More broadly, it was a good week for both S&P 500 and FTSE 100, which rose by 3.8% and 1.9% respectively. Notable on the economics front was a speech from Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, echoed by the FOMC Minutes, in which he underlined the need for continued fiscal stimulus, “The recovery will be stronger and move faster if monetary policy and fiscal policy continue to work side by side.” We are in a world where any economic positives are counterbalanced by rising Covid infection rates. New restrictions are resulting in additional policies to protect incomes and support businesses, see, for example, the UK’s expansion of the Job Support Scheme.

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 09 Oct 2020

October 12, 2020 | GraniteShares
The week saw the U.S. President leave hospital, kill off any chances of a stimulus package before the election then changing his mind urging Congress to pass piecemeal aid packages, before announcing he would resume rallies in key states. Meanwhile in a parallel universe, the significant move in the Rolls-Royce share price came after it hit a 52-week low on 2 October, and, yes, the UK’s FCA announced that crypto derivatives would be banned for retail consumers from January 2021. More broadly, it was a good week for both S&P 500 and FTSE 100, which rose by 3.8% and 1.9% respectively. Notable on the economics front was a speech from Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, echoed by the FOMC Minutes, in which he underlined the need for continued fiscal stimulus, “The recovery will be stronger and move faster if monetary policy and fiscal policy continue to work side by side.” We are in a world where any economic positives are counterbalanced by rising Covid infection rates. New restrictions are resulting in additional policies to protect incomes and support businesses, see, for example, the UK’s expansion of the Job Support Scheme.

The tweet in the early hours of Friday morning by the U.S. President that both he and his wife had contracted Covid-19 shook investors and led to a 3.48% rise in the VIX and a fall of 0.96% in the S&P 500, which still left it, like the FTSE 100, in positive territory over the week. The President’s illness, with the U.S. election barely four weeks away, is the latest ingredient in the cocktail of uncertainty facing investors. Most immediately, in addition to the President’s health, investors have to assess the chances of a new stimulus package being agreed before the election, and, on this side of the pond, whether the EU and UK can reach an agreement on trade after failing to do so after nine negotiating rounds.

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 02 Oct 2020

October 05, 2020 | GraniteShares
The tweet in the early hours of Friday morning by the U.S. President that both he and his wife had contracted Covid-19 shook investors and led to a 3.48% rise in the VIX and a fall of 0.96% in the S&P 500, which still left it, like the FTSE 100, in positive territory over the week. The President’s illness, with the U.S. election barely four weeks away, is the latest ingredient in the cocktail of uncertainty facing investors. Most immediately, in addition to the President’s health, investors have to assess the chances of a new stimulus package being agreed before the election, and, on this side of the pond, whether the EU and UK can reach an agreement on trade after failing to do so after nine negotiating rounds.

Both the S&P 500 and FTSE 100 fell on the week, by -0.63% and -2.74% respectively, and the VIX had some significant swings and ended the week at 26.38. In the UK, both Lloyds Banking Group and Rolls-Royce had a second consecutive week of hitting new 52-week lows. In the case of the latter, rumours on Friday that the Kuwait Investment Office was going to take a stake provided some support for the share price, a post-market RNS from the company indicated that all fund options were being considered and no decisions had been taken, including “any allotment of shares to any investor including any sovereign wealth fund.” Investors are looking ahead to what could prove to be a difficult final quarter for economies with the rise of Covid-19 infections. Rising job losses seem inevitable, the FTWeekend led with “Axe set to fall on 1m jobs this year” in the UK, meanwhile in the US, ING suggests that job growth may have hit a plateau.

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 25 Sep 2020

September 28, 2020 | GraniteShares
Both the S&P 500 and FTSE 100 fell on the week, by -0.63% and -2.74% respectively, and the VIX had some significant swings and ended the week at 26.38. In the UK, both Lloyds Banking Group and Rolls-Royce had a second consecutive week of hitting new 52-week lows. In the case of the latter, rumours on Friday that the Kuwait Investment Office was going to take a stake provided some support for the share price, a post-market RNS from the company indicated that all fund options were being considered and no decisions had been taken, including “any allotment of shares to any investor including any sovereign wealth fund.” Investors are looking ahead to what could prove to be a difficult final quarter for economies with the rise of Covid-19 infections. Rising job losses seem inevitable, the FTWeekend led with “Axe set to fall on 1m jobs this year” in the UK, meanwhile in the US, ING suggests that job growth may have hit a plateau.

Tech remained under pressure, with Apple down 4.6% in the week it announced its Apple One bundle, leading to a fall of 0.64% in the S&P 500, while the FTSE 100 was down 0.42%, with Lloyds Banking Group and Rolls-Royce hitting new 52 week lows. Investors have plenty to fret about: the looming presidential election, simmering U.S.-China tensions, and, in Europe, rising new cases of Covid-19 raising concerns about scope for new lockdowns as we head into autumn (see chart below). Central banks were centre stage with the Fed suggesting rates are on hold until 2024, with only four of the 17 FOMC members expecting a rise in 2023. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee indicated that it “does not intend to tighten monetary policy until there is clear evidence that significant progress is being made in eliminating spare capacity and achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably,” and negative rates are under review as an option “should the outlook for inflation and output warrant it.”

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 18 Sep 2020

September 21, 2020 | GraniteShares
Tech remained under pressure, with Apple down 4.6% in the week it announced its Apple One bundle, leading to a fall of 0.64% in the S&P 500, while the FTSE 100 was down 0.42%, with Lloyds Banking Group and Rolls-Royce hitting new 52 week lows. Investors have plenty to fret about: the looming presidential election, simmering U.S.-China tensions, and, in Europe, rising new cases of Covid-19 raising concerns about scope for new lockdowns as we head into autumn (see chart below). Central banks were centre stage with the Fed suggesting rates are on hold until 2024, with only four of the 17 FOMC members expecting a rise in 2023. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee indicated that it “does not intend to tighten monetary policy until there is clear evidence that significant progress is being made in eliminating spare capacity and achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably,” and negative rates are under review as an option “should the outlook for inflation and output warrant it.”

Tech was again a drag on markets leading to a fall of 2.51% in the S&P 500 while the FTSE 100 rose by 1.59%. Despite tech’s reversal, as pointed out by Michael Mackenzie in the FT, the Nasdaq 100 is still up nearly 60% from its March lows. There are still factors that are supportive of the sector, including the earnings yield, which, unlike in 2000, is comfortably above that of a 30-year Treasury bond. On the economic front, the UK-EU Future Relationship negotiations now risk hitting an impasse if the UK government is able to get its draft internal market bill, which would undermine the terms of the Brexit deal, through Parliament. Pressure on sterling could mount further.

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 11 Sep 2020

September 14, 2020 | GraniteShares
Tech was again a drag on markets leading to a fall of 2.51% in the S&P 500 while the FTSE 100 rose by 1.59%. Despite tech’s reversal, as pointed out by Michael Mackenzie in the FT, the Nasdaq 100 is still up nearly 60% from its March lows. There are still factors that are supportive of the sector, including the earnings yield, which, unlike in 2000, is comfortably above that of a 30-year Treasury bond. On the economic front, the UK-EU Future Relationship negotiations now risk hitting an impasse if the UK government is able to get its draft internal market bill, which would undermine the terms of the Brexit deal, through Parliament. Pressure on sterling could mount further.

A significant correction in tech stocks led to 2.31% weekly fall in the S&P 500, while in the UK, where chances of a trade deal with the EU are receding, the FTSE 100 was down 2.76%. The ‘Nasdaq whale’, the force behind the tech rally, has been identified: Softbank. The cover story in FTWeekend reported that Softbank has bought billions of dollars’ worth of equity options over the last month. The FT highlighted analysis by Goldman Sachs that the overall nominal value of calls on US stocks averaged $335 billion a day over the past two weeks, triple the rolling average in 2017 to 2019. One to follow closely over the coming weeks. Turning to economic indicators, the global PMIs for August were positive with strengthening growth in a number of sectors, led by healthcare, autos and real estate. U.S. nonfarm payroll employment rose by 1.4 million in August, and the unemployment rate fell to 8.4% from 10.2%, which means that 13.55 million people are ‘officially’ unemployed, i.e. actively seeking work.

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 04 Sep 2020

September 07, 2020 | GraniteShares
A significant correction in tech stocks led to 2.31% weekly fall in the S&P 500, while in the UK, where chances of a trade deal with the EU are receding, the FTSE 100 was down 2.76%. The ‘Nasdaq whale’, the force behind the tech rally, has been identified: Softbank. The cover story in FTWeekend reported that Softbank has bought billions of dollars’ worth of equity options over the last month. The FT highlighted analysis by Goldman Sachs that the overall nominal value of calls on US stocks averaged $335 billion a day over the past two weeks, triple the rolling average in 2017 to 2019. One to follow closely over the coming weeks. Turning to economic indicators, the global PMIs for August were positive with strengthening growth in a number of sectors, led by healthcare, autos and real estate. U.S. nonfarm payroll employment rose by 1.4 million in August, and the unemployment rate fell to 8.4% from 10.2%, which means that 13.55 million people are ‘officially’ unemployed, i.e. actively seeking work.

The S&P 500 ended the week up 3.26%, led by the communication services and technology sectors, and the FTSE 100 was down 0.64%. The big event of the week was the annual Jackson Hole conference, at which Fed Chair, Jerome Powell signalled average inflation targeting, “Following periods when inflation has been running below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.” This change in policy was framed in the context of several factors including falling expectations for the long-term potential growth rate of the economy and a strong labour market that did not trigger a “significant rise in inflation.”

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 28 Aug 2020

August 31, 2020 | GraniteShares
The S&P 500 ended the week up 3.26%, led by the communication services and technology sectors, and the FTSE 100 was down 0.64%. The big event of the week was the annual Jackson Hole conference, at which Fed Chair, Jerome Powell signalled average inflation targeting, “Following periods when inflation has been running below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.” This change in policy was framed in the context of several factors including falling expectations for the long-term potential growth rate of the economy and a strong labour market that did not trigger a “significant rise in inflation.”

The summer doldrums continued with the S&P 500 up 0.72% and the FTSE 100 down 1.45%. From a UK perspective, the seventh round of negotiations with the EU on a future partnership ended with little progress being made in key areas such as fisheries, governance, law enforcement, and mobility and social security coordination. Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, wrote on Twitter, “We are worried about the state of play of the negotiations with #UK. We do not see how we can have a better agreement if we leave the most difficult subjects to the end. We risk running out of time.” Separately, the Office for National Statistics published the latest public sector finance figures, not pretty reading. Debt stood at over £2 trillion at the end of July for the first time ever, representing 100.5% of gross domestic product (GDP), an increase of 20.4 percentage points compared with the same point last year and the first time it has been above 100% since March 1961. Inflation is down the pike

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 21 Aug 2020

August 24, 2020 | GraniteShares
The summer doldrums continued with the S&P 500 up 0.72% and the FTSE 100 down 1.45%. From a UK perspective, the seventh round of negotiations with the EU on a future partnership ended with little progress being made in key areas such as fisheries, governance, law enforcement, and mobility and social security coordination. Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, wrote on Twitter, “We are worried about the state of play of the negotiations with #UK. We do not see how we can have a better agreement if we leave the most difficult subjects to the end. We risk running out of time.” Separately, the Office for National Statistics published the latest public sector finance figures, not pretty reading. Debt stood at over £2 trillion at the end of July for the first time ever, representing 100.5% of gross domestic product (GDP), an increase of 20.4 percentage points compared with the same point last year and the first time it has been above 100% since March 1961. Inflation is down the pike

It was a relatively quiet week in markets with the S&P 500 up 0.64% and the FTSE 100 0.96%. The VIX remains below 25 and ended the week at 22.05. The economic backdrop remains challenging with U.S. not lifting tariffs on European goods, ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the lingering pandemic. The UK recorded an estimated 20.4% fall in GDP in 2Q 2020, the worst of any major economy, and way above the Netherlands 8.5% fall – its worst on record. In contrast, the U.S. consumer has not disappointed and U.S. retail sales are now back to their pre-pandemic levels, but many have highlighted that August may see a contraction with the removal of $600 per week federal unemployment cheque. U.S. manufacturing has recovered quickly but remains 8% below its December peak.

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 14 Aug 2020

August 17, 2020 | GraniteShares
It was a relatively quiet week in markets with the S&P 500 up 0.64% and the FTSE 100 0.96%. The VIX remains below 25 and ended the week at 22.05. The economic backdrop remains challenging with U.S. not lifting tariffs on European goods, ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the lingering pandemic. The UK recorded an estimated 20.4% fall in GDP in 2Q 2020, the worst of any major economy, and way above the Netherlands 8.5% fall – its worst on record. In contrast, the U.S. consumer has not disappointed and U.S. retail sales are now back to their pre-pandemic levels, but many have highlighted that August may see a contraction with the removal of $600 per week federal unemployment cheque. U.S. manufacturing has recovered quickly but remains 8% below its December peak.

European stock markets finished higher last week with the Stoxx 600 Index increasing 2.2%, the FTSE 100 Index climbing 2.3% and the DAX index rising 2.9%. Most of these gains occurred Monday, following stronger-than-expected IHS Markit, Caixin and ISM manufacturing index releases in Europe, China and the U.S., respectively. The BoE’s MPC met last week leaving rates unchanged and reaffirming its commitment to its aggressive stimulative monetary policy in light of uncertainties produced by the ongoing coronavirus pandemic while, surprisingly, at the same time improving its economic growth expectations. The Euro, 0.8% higher against U.S. dollar through Thursday, gave up most of those gains on Friday after a much-stronger-than-expected U.S. employment situation report. The pound weakened 0.3% against the U.S. dollar and the euro. UK economic data for the upcoming week include GDP, industrial and manufacturing output and job figures all on Wednesday. EU economic data for the upcoming week include industrial production (Wednesday), ZEW indicator of economic sentiment (Tuesday) and second reading of GDP (Friday). Against a backdrop of better-than-expected economic reports and earning results and indications new Covid-19 cases may be falling, U.S. stock market all moved higher again last week despite concerns over increased U.S.-China frictions and stalled congressional progess on additional coronavirus relief funds. Better-than-expected factory order and ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing index numbers combined with a lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims number and a stronger-than-expected payroll report helped move U.S. equity markets higher. Earning results reported last week were predominantly positive also helping move equity markets higher. Early-in-the-week optimism that congress would reach agreement on additional coronavirus-related relief funds faded as the week ended with no progress, but was slightly ameliorated with the Trump administration announcing the President may issue executive orders to extend existing programs. Both the U.S. dollar and the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate moved off their lows reached earlier in the week on stronger-than-expected economic reports and signs the number of new Covid-19 cases may be decreasing. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite index each increased 2.5% to 3,351.28 and 11,010.98, respectively. the 10-year U.S. interest rate increased 4 bps to 57bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) was unchanged.

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 07 Aug 2020

August 10, 2020 | GraniteShares
European stock markets finished higher last week with the Stoxx 600 Index increasing 2.2%, the FTSE 100 Index climbing 2.3% and the DAX index rising 2.9%. Most of these gains occurred Monday, following stronger-than-expected IHS Markit, Caixin and ISM manufacturing index releases in Europe, China and the U.S., respectively. The BoE’s MPC met last week leaving rates unchanged and reaffirming its commitment to its aggressive stimulative monetary policy in light of uncertainties produced by the ongoing coronavirus pandemic while, surprisingly, at the same time improving its economic growth expectations. The Euro, 0.8% higher against U.S. dollar through Thursday, gave up most of those gains on Friday after a much-stronger-than-expected U.S. employment situation report. The pound weakened 0.3% against the U.S. dollar and the euro. UK economic data for the upcoming week include GDP, industrial and manufacturing output and job figures all on Wednesday. EU economic data for the upcoming week include industrial production (Wednesday), ZEW indicator of economic sentiment (Tuesday) and second reading of GDP (Friday). Against a backdrop of better-than-expected economic reports and earning results and indications new Covid-19 cases may be falling, U.S. stock market all moved higher again last week despite concerns over increased U.S.-China frictions and stalled congressional progess on additional coronavirus relief funds. Better-than-expected factory order and ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing index numbers combined with a lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims number and a stronger-than-expected payroll report helped move U.S. equity markets higher. Earning results reported last week were predominantly positive also helping move equity markets higher. Early-in-the-week optimism that congress would reach agreement on additional coronavirus-related relief funds faded as the week ended with no progress, but was slightly ameliorated with the Trump administration announcing the President may issue executive orders to extend existing programs. Both the U.S. dollar and the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate moved off their lows reached earlier in the week on stronger-than-expected economic reports and signs the number of new Covid-19 cases may be decreasing. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite index each increased 2.5% to 3,351.28 and 11,010.98, respectively. the 10-year U.S. interest rate increased 4 bps to 57bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) was unchanged.

It was a week of sharp contrasts: strong numbers from tech giants, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, on the one hand counterbalanced by significant falls in GDP in the U.S. and eurozone combined with growing concerns about the pandemic. On Friday, the World Health Organization reported a record increase in global coronavirus cases, with the total rising by 292,527, and with Brazil, the U.S., India and South Africa having the biggest increases. In Europe, there has been an uptick in infections, which, in the UK, has led Boris Johnson to postpone plans to re-open high-risk venues such as casinos, as well as the government imposing new quarantine conditions on people travelling into the UK from Spain. Against this backdrop, it is hardly surprising that Willie Walsh, the CEO of IAG, which announced a €2.75 billion rights issue, indicated that he doesn’t think air travel will return to pre-Covid levels until 2023. The banks too face a challenging environment and the ECB this week asked that banks not pay dividends or buy back shares at least until January, three months longer than initially indicated, and expects banks “to exercise extreme moderation on variable remuneration to conserve capital in crisis”. It will review its position in Q4, as will the Bank of England, which indicated that it would conduct a review of any plans by the UK’s biggest banks to pay dividends. The S&P 500 rose on the week driven by the strong quarterly results from the tech giants, which will probably lead to even closer scrutiny from politicians and regulators looking at anti-competitive behaviour. In contrast, the FTSE 100 fell as quarterly results from the blue chips reflected the difficulties facing old economy stocks across sectors such as banks and oil and gas. There were some bright spots, BAE Systems reinstated its dividend and the miners are seeing good levels of demand across different commodities.

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 31 July 2020

August 03, 2020 | GraniteShares
It was a week of sharp contrasts: strong numbers from tech giants, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, on the one hand counterbalanced by significant falls in GDP in the U.S. and eurozone combined with growing concerns about the pandemic. On Friday, the World Health Organization reported a record increase in global coronavirus cases, with the total rising by 292,527, and with Brazil, the U.S., India and South Africa having the biggest increases. In Europe, there has been an uptick in infections, which, in the UK, has led Boris Johnson to postpone plans to re-open high-risk venues such as casinos, as well as the government imposing new quarantine conditions on people travelling into the UK from Spain. Against this backdrop, it is hardly surprising that Willie Walsh, the CEO of IAG, which announced a €2.75 billion rights issue, indicated that he doesn’t think air travel will return to pre-Covid levels until 2023. The banks too face a challenging environment and the ECB this week asked that banks not pay dividends or buy back shares at least until January, three months longer than initially indicated, and expects banks “to exercise extreme moderation on variable remuneration to conserve capital in crisis”. It will review its position in Q4, as will the Bank of England, which indicated that it would conduct a review of any plans by the UK’s biggest banks to pay dividends. The S&P 500 rose on the week driven by the strong quarterly results from the tech giants, which will probably lead to even closer scrutiny from politicians and regulators looking at anti-competitive behaviour. In contrast, the FTSE 100 fell as quarterly results from the blue chips reflected the difficulties facing old economy stocks across sectors such as banks and oil and gas. There were some bright spots, BAE Systems reinstated its dividend and the miners are seeing good levels of demand across different commodities.

Solid quarterly numbers from the big tech stocks were not enough to keep markets ticking higher, but, after such a euphoric rally in markets since March, it perhaps not surprising that sellers have started to outweigh the buyers. Apart from the speed of the rise, there are plenty of factors to make investors nervous. First, there are growing U.S.- China tensions, which took a turn for the worse with the tit-for-tat closing of consulates in Houston and Chengdu.

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 24 July 2020

July 27, 2020 | GraniteShares
Solid quarterly numbers from the big tech stocks were not enough to keep markets ticking higher, but, after such a euphoric rally in markets since March, it perhaps not surprising that sellers have started to outweigh the buyers. Apart from the speed of the rise, there are plenty of factors to make investors nervous. First, there are growing U.S.- China tensions, which took a turn for the worse with the tit-for-tat closing of consulates in Houston and Chengdu.

Investors hit the pause button on tech stocks… Netflix disappoints. Some of the challenges ahead were highlighted in Q2 results from the U.S. banks, which announced significant provisions for loan losses. U.S. retail sales rose 7.5% month-on-month in June, however analysts are concerned that the end of the Federal $600 per week boost for the unemployed later this month will dampen consumer spending. Spending will also be affected by the possibility of renewed lockdowns, Johns Hopkins University reported a growing number of confirmed coronavirus cases, with Texas hitting 317.8k and Florida 327.2k on 17 July, up 127% and 166% respectively since 26 June. The UK’s OBR indicated that the UK is on track to record a fall in output of more than 10% in 2020. Looking at the government’s financing requirements, in its central scenario, the OBR estimates the government will need to raise around £1.4 trillion over the next five years or 12 per cent of cumulative GDP. Companies, too, are also borrowing record amounts, see chart below. Both the FTSE 100 and S&P 500 were up on the week, in the case of the latter, the usual suspects did not drive performance. Netflix’s share price fell sharply after reported Q2 earnings of $1.59 versus guidance of $1.81 and expectations for subscriber growth of only 2.5 million in Q3. With the exception of Apple, the other tech-related stocks tracked by ETPs also fell over the week, which started on Monday with some technical analysts getting signals of a potential reversal in the Nasdaq. In UK markets, optimism around the Oxford vaccine helped take AstraZeneca above £90. The miners and oil majors were also in demand. Rolls-Royce and the banks were the laggards.

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples , Technology

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 17 July 2020

July 20, 2020 | GraniteShares
Investors hit the pause button on tech stocks… Netflix disappoints. Some of the challenges ahead were highlighted in Q2 results from the U.S. banks, which announced significant provisions for loan losses. U.S. retail sales rose 7.5% month-on-month in June, however analysts are concerned that the end of the Federal $600 per week boost for the unemployed later this month will dampen consumer spending. Spending will also be affected by the possibility of renewed lockdowns, Johns Hopkins University reported a growing number of confirmed coronavirus cases, with Texas hitting 317.8k and Florida 327.2k on 17 July, up 127% and 166% respectively since 26 June. The UK’s OBR indicated that the UK is on track to record a fall in output of more than 10% in 2020. Looking at the government’s financing requirements, in its central scenario, the OBR estimates the government will need to raise around £1.4 trillion over the next five years or 12 per cent of cumulative GDP. Companies, too, are also borrowing record amounts, see chart below. Both the FTSE 100 and S&P 500 were up on the week, in the case of the latter, the usual suspects did not drive performance. Netflix’s share price fell sharply after reported Q2 earnings of $1.59 versus guidance of $1.81 and expectations for subscriber growth of only 2.5 million in Q3. With the exception of Apple, the other tech-related stocks tracked by ETPs also fell over the week, which started on Monday with some technical analysts getting signals of a potential reversal in the Nasdaq. In UK markets, optimism around the Oxford vaccine helped take AstraZeneca above £90. The miners and oil majors were also in demand. Rolls-Royce and the banks were the laggards.

Put on your red pants Elon, next stop S&P 500? The S&P 500 rose by 1.8% over the week, the FTSE 100 was down 1%, while the VIX fell by 1.4%, closing at 27.29. With the listing of GraniteShares ETPs on U.S. tech leaders, this week’s comments are focused mostly on the U.S. The U.S. stocks tracked by GraniteShares, including Netflix and NVIDIA, continued to be among the principal drivers of index returns, while sectors such as energy, real estate and industrials were among the laggards. Tesla remains very much in the limelight, with analyst attention focusing on the quarterly results due on 22 July, expectations are of a fourth successive quarterly profit, one of the criteria for inclusion in the S&P 500, together with factors such as a market capitalisation of at least $8.2 billion and a public float of at least 50% of its shares outstanding. A suivre.

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 10 July 2020

July 13, 2020 | GraniteShares
Put on your red pants Elon, next stop S&P 500? The S&P 500 rose by 1.8% over the week, the FTSE 100 was down 1%, while the VIX fell by 1.4%, closing at 27.29. With the listing of GraniteShares ETPs on U.S. tech leaders, this week’s comments are focused mostly on the U.S. The U.S. stocks tracked by GraniteShares, including Netflix and NVIDIA, continued to be among the principal drivers of index returns, while sectors such as energy, real estate and industrials were among the laggards. Tesla remains very much in the limelight, with analyst attention focusing on the quarterly results due on 22 July, expectations are of a fourth successive quarterly profit, one of the criteria for inclusion in the S&P 500, together with factors such as a market capitalisation of at least $8.2 billion and a public float of at least 50% of its shares outstanding. A suivre.

Latest nonfarm payrolls provide another boost The S&P 500 rose by 4% over the week, the FTSE 100 was flat, while the VIX fell by 20%, closing at 27.68. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 4.8 million in June, following May’s 2.7 million increase. Employment in leisure and hospitality rose by over 2 million. While the figure is clearly positive, analysts urged caution because the initial claims figure remains persistently high, the latest figure being over 1.4 million, and the total employment figure is still over 14.5 million less than in February. Related to all of this, Dr Anthony Fauci, a member of the White House’s Coronavirus Task Force, warned Congress on Tuesday that the U.S. could see 100,000 Covid-19 infections a day if current spikes are not contained. Elsewhere, the Chinese Caixin/Markit services PMI increased to 58.4 in June from 55.0 in May and the Bundestag authorised the Bundesbank to continue to implement the PSPP programme.

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 3 July 2020

July 06, 2020 | GraniteShares
Latest nonfarm payrolls provide another boost The S&P 500 rose by 4% over the week, the FTSE 100 was flat, while the VIX fell by 20%, closing at 27.68. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 4.8 million in June, following May’s 2.7 million increase. Employment in leisure and hospitality rose by over 2 million. While the figure is clearly positive, analysts urged caution because the initial claims figure remains persistently high, the latest figure being over 1.4 million, and the total employment figure is still over 14.5 million less than in February. Related to all of this, Dr Anthony Fauci, a member of the White House’s Coronavirus Task Force, warned Congress on Tuesday that the U.S. could see 100,000 Covid-19 infections a day if current spikes are not contained. Elsewhere, the Chinese Caixin/Markit services PMI increased to 58.4 in June from 55.0 in May and the Bundestag authorised the Bundesbank to continue to implement the PSPP programme.

Markets turn red on new tariff concerns Over the week, the S&P 500 fell by 2.9% and the FTSE 100 by 2.1%, while the VIX fell by 1.1%, closing at 34.73. Investors were made uneasy by various red flags ranging from the initial jobless claims number in the U.S. to aerospace-related trade tensions between the EU and U.S. On Wednesday, the news broke that the U.S. is considering new tariffs on $3.1 billion of exports from France, Germany, Spain and the UK. The dispute relates to illegal subsidies to Airbus, and the EU is seeking authorisation from the WTO to impose tariffs on U.S. goods in retaliation for the U.S. illegal subsidies to Boeing. The risk of a tit-for-tat trade dispute is not good for business or markets when trade is already under pressure (see chart). The continued surge in new coronavirus cases in the U.S. is also of concern. This is leading to policy reversals, on Friday, for example, Texas Governor, Greg Abbott, and Florida Governor, Ron DeSantis, closed bars, and in Texas restaurant capacity was scaled back to 50%.

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 26 June 2020

June 29, 2020 | GraniteShares
Markets turn red on new tariff concerns Over the week, the S&P 500 fell by 2.9% and the FTSE 100 by 2.1%, while the VIX fell by 1.1%, closing at 34.73. Investors were made uneasy by various red flags ranging from the initial jobless claims number in the U.S. to aerospace-related trade tensions between the EU and U.S. On Wednesday, the news broke that the U.S. is considering new tariffs on $3.1 billion of exports from France, Germany, Spain and the UK. The dispute relates to illegal subsidies to Airbus, and the EU is seeking authorisation from the WTO to impose tariffs on U.S. goods in retaliation for the U.S. illegal subsidies to Boeing. The risk of a tit-for-tat trade dispute is not good for business or markets when trade is already under pressure (see chart). The continued surge in new coronavirus cases in the U.S. is also of concern. This is leading to policy reversals, on Friday, for example, Texas Governor, Greg Abbott, and Florida Governor, Ron DeSantis, closed bars, and in Texas restaurant capacity was scaled back to 50%.

Markets going on a summer holiday despite growing debt pile The Bank of England announced that it is increasing the target stock of purchased UK government bonds by an additional £100 bn, to take the total asset purchases to £745 bn. It also indicated, “The emerging evidence suggests that the fall in global and UK GDP in 2020 Q2 will be less severe than set out in the May Report.” Meanwhile, the ONS released May’s public sector finance figures, which showed that debt (public sector net debt ex public sector banks) was 100.9% of GDP at the end of May, the first time it has exceeded that level since March 1963*. Meanwhile, there is evidence that Covid-19 is far from beaten, Arizona, Florida, South Carolina and Texas were among the states that saw record increases in new coronavirus infections, while in Beijing there was a spike in new cases. Against this backdrop, investors focused on the positives, such as the 17.7% monthly increase in U.S. retail sales. Over the week, the S&P 500 rose by 1.9% and the FTSE 100 by 3%, while the VIX fell by 2.7%, closing at 35.12.

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 19 June 2020

June 21, 2020 | GraniteShares
Markets going on a summer holiday despite growing debt pile The Bank of England announced that it is increasing the target stock of purchased UK government bonds by an additional £100 bn, to take the total asset purchases to £745 bn. It also indicated, “The emerging evidence suggests that the fall in global and UK GDP in 2020 Q2 will be less severe than set out in the May Report.” Meanwhile, the ONS released May’s public sector finance figures, which showed that debt (public sector net debt ex public sector banks) was 100.9% of GDP at the end of May, the first time it has exceeded that level since March 1963*. Meanwhile, there is evidence that Covid-19 is far from beaten, Arizona, Florida, South Carolina and Texas were among the states that saw record increases in new coronavirus infections, while in Beijing there was a spike in new cases. Against this backdrop, investors focused on the positives, such as the 17.7% monthly increase in U.S. retail sales. Over the week, the S&P 500 rose by 1.9% and the FTSE 100 by 3%, while the VIX fell by 2.7%, closing at 35.12.

Back on the big dipper Suspect number one for the market weakness: a dovish Fed, which indicated that rates are on hold until the end of 2021. It is projecting a GDP fall of 6.5% for 2020 and an unemployment rate of 9.3% in the fourth quarter. Jerome Powell highlighted that “…you could see significant job growth in -- in coming months, as people return to their jobs, but you're still going to face probably an extended period where it will be difficult for many people to find work”. Powell’s comments at the press conference elicited a tweet from the White House, which started “The Federal Reserve is wrong so often. I see the numbers also, and do MUCH better than they do. We will have a very good Third Quarter, a great Fourth Quarter, and one of our best ever years in 2021….”

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 12 June 2020

June 15, 2020 | GraniteShares
Back on the big dipper Suspect number one for the market weakness: a dovish Fed, which indicated that rates are on hold until the end of 2021. It is projecting a GDP fall of 6.5% for 2020 and an unemployment rate of 9.3% in the fourth quarter. Jerome Powell highlighted that “…you could see significant job growth in -- in coming months, as people return to their jobs, but you're still going to face probably an extended period where it will be difficult for many people to find work”. Powell’s comments at the press conference elicited a tweet from the White House, which started “The Federal Reserve is wrong so often. I see the numbers also, and do MUCH better than they do. We will have a very good Third Quarter, a great Fourth Quarter, and one of our best ever years in 2021….”

Gobsmacked! Friday’s U.S. payrolls number defied all predictions with an increase in jobs of 2.5 million versus a consensus forecast for a fall of 8 million. It is an indication that the U.S. economy may be recovering faster than expected, albeit there are still 15.2 million more people unemployed than in February. In Europe, the ECB on Thursday increased the PEPP by €600bn rather than predicted €500bn. All good for risk assets, which ended the week on a charge: the FTSE-100 closed at 6484.3, a weekly rise of 6.7%, and the S&P500 at 3191.5, a rise of 4.8%. OPEC+ reached a preliminary agreement to prolong the production cuts, which was bullish for oil with Brent closing the week at $41.97 and WTI at $38.95, levels last seen at the beginning of March. Perish the thought of selling in May…

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 5 June 2020

June 08, 2020 | GraniteShares
Gobsmacked! Friday’s U.S. payrolls number defied all predictions with an increase in jobs of 2.5 million versus a consensus forecast for a fall of 8 million. It is an indication that the U.S. economy may be recovering faster than expected, albeit there are still 15.2 million more people unemployed than in February. In Europe, the ECB on Thursday increased the PEPP by €600bn rather than predicted €500bn. All good for risk assets, which ended the week on a charge: the FTSE-100 closed at 6484.3, a weekly rise of 6.7%, and the S&P500 at 3191.5, a rise of 4.8%. OPEC+ reached a preliminary agreement to prolong the production cuts, which was bullish for oil with Brent closing the week at $41.97 and WTI at $38.95, levels last seen at the beginning of March. Perish the thought of selling in May…

Markets raring to go, economic data still on the brake pedal The FTSE100 ended the week up over 3% and started the week with a 4.3% rise on Monday which was largely sentiment driven as investors look ahead to the opening up of economies. Broad sentiment was helped by remarks from Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, on CBS’s “60 Minutes” who said people should not “bet against the American economy,” and “there’s no limit to what we can do.”

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 22 May 2020

May 26, 2020 | GraniteShares
Markets raring to go, economic data still on the brake pedal The FTSE100 ended the week up over 3% and started the week with a 4.3% rise on Monday which was largely sentiment driven as investors look ahead to the opening up of economies. Broad sentiment was helped by remarks from Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, on CBS’s “60 Minutes” who said people should not “bet against the American economy,” and “there’s no limit to what we can do.”

The chart for U.S. retail sales below tells the story and reflects what is happening globally. The consumer is reining in discretionary expenditure. It is hardly surprising in the context of the prevailing uncertainty, and as J-S Jacques, Rio Tinto’s CEO, highlighted in his Q&A at the Bank of America Metals Conference on 12 May, that while in China the industrial side was strong “the service economy, the leisure part of the economy, is under pressure and will take time to return to full activity.”

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 15 May 2020

May 18, 2020 | GraniteShares
The chart for U.S. retail sales below tells the story and reflects what is happening globally. The consumer is reining in discretionary expenditure. It is hardly surprising in the context of the prevailing uncertainty, and as J-S Jacques, Rio Tinto’s CEO, highlighted in his Q&A at the Bank of America Metals Conference on 12 May, that while in China the industrial side was strong “the service economy, the leisure part of the economy, is under pressure and will take time to return to full activity.”

More than 30 million Americans have filed for unemployment benefits in the past six weeks. James Knightley at ING suggests that we are on course for an unemployment rate of 22% but as he highlights a third of Americans between the age of 18-65 are not classified as employed or unemployed, which means that less than half working age Americans may be earning a wage next month. No wonder those facing elections are keen to get the economy started again regardless of any other costs

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 1 May 2020

May 04, 2020 | GraniteShares
More than 30 million Americans have filed for unemployment benefits in the past six weeks. James Knightley at ING suggests that we are on course for an unemployment rate of 22% but as he highlights a third of Americans between the age of 18-65 are not classified as employed or unemployed, which means that less than half working age Americans may be earning a wage next month. No wonder those facing elections are keen to get the economy started again regardless of any other costs

The chart below tells the story. WTI May futures moved into negative territory ahead of expiry as lack of storage capacity meant that holders of futures had to pay offload their exposure. Will it happen again? The CME isn’t ruling it out, announcing on 21 April that it will “switch the options pricing and valuation model to Bachelier to accommodate negative prices in the underlying futures.

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 24 April 2020

April 27, 2020 | GraniteShares
The chart below tells the story. WTI May futures moved into negative territory ahead of expiry as lack of storage capacity meant that holders of futures had to pay offload their exposure. Will it happen again? The CME isn’t ruling it out, announcing on 21 April that it will “switch the options pricing and valuation model to Bachelier to accommodate negative prices in the underlying futures.

Week in review – Back to Whatever it Takes The speed of slowdown is forcing governments and central banks into quick and decisive active. On 9 April, the US Treasury and Federal Reserve announced new and expanded lending programmes to provide up to $2.3 trillion in financing to support workers, businesses and municipalities impacted by the pandemic. On the same day the Bank of England agreed to lend the UK government money if needed to help finance its spending plans.

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Industrials , Consumer Staples

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 17 April 2020

April 20, 2020 | GraniteShares
Week in review – Back to Whatever it Takes The speed of slowdown is forcing governments and central banks into quick and decisive active. On 9 April, the US Treasury and Federal Reserve announced new and expanded lending programmes to provide up to $2.3 trillion in financing to support workers, businesses and municipalities impacted by the pandemic. On the same day the Bank of England agreed to lend the UK government money if needed to help finance its spending plans.

The speed of slowdown is forcing governments and central banks into quick and decisive active. On 9 April, the US Treasury and Federal Reserve announced new and expanded lending programmes to provide up to $2.3 trillion in financing to support workers, businesses and municipalities impacted by the pandemic.

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 9 April 2020

April 13, 2020 | GraniteShares
The speed of slowdown is forcing governments and central banks into quick and decisive active. On 9 April, the US Treasury and Federal Reserve announced new and expanded lending programmes to provide up to $2.3 trillion in financing to support workers, businesses and municipalities impacted by the pandemic.

Publication Type: Regulatory News

GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL PLC (the “Issuer”) GRANITESHARES 3X LONG GLENCORE DAILY ETP SECURITIES (the “ETP Securities”) COMPANY ANNOUNCEMENT RE: NOTICE OF AMENDMENT OF MINIMUM REDEMPTION AMOUNT

April 08, 2020 | GraniteShares

The reality check of the impact of the coronavirus on the economy started to hit home as the US data showed record weekly rise in new jobless claims, the California figure of 858,000 topping the all-time high for the US. In Europe, the Eurozone Markit PMI figures, published on Friday, paint a picture of savage downturn, falling from 51.6 in February to a record low of 27.9, while Friday’s UK PMI figures for March revealed the worst decline on record.

Topic: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Healthcare , Industrials , Consumer Staples

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

The Long and Short of it, week ending 3 April 2020

April 06, 2020 | GraniteShares
The reality check of the impact of the coronavirus on the economy started to hit home as the US data showed record weekly rise in new jobless claims, the California figure of 858,000 topping the all-time high for the US. In Europe, the Eurozone Markit PMI figures, published on Friday, paint a picture of savage downturn, falling from 51.6 in February to a record low of 27.9, while Friday’s UK PMI figures for March revealed the worst decline on record.

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