Researches By 3lzn
Major stock market indexes moved higher yet again last week. Stable longer-term Treasury rates (at levels significantly below 5%) and more weak economic data (falling home sales, PMI job cuts) provided the major impetus for the move higher, bolstering expectations of sooner-than-previously expected rate cuts. Interestingly, the Nasdaq Composite Index fared the worst last week, affected more by earnings concerns (after Nvidia delayed chip design and production for the Chinese market) than rate outlooks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average performed the best last week despite concerns surrounding consumer spending, perhaps buoyed by less techstock exposure. For the week, the S&P 500 Index rose 1.0% to 4,559.34, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 0.9% to 14,250.09 the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.3% to 35,390.57, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 3bps to 4.47% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) weakened 0.5%.
Argomento: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Industrials , Technology
Tipo di pubblicazione: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 24 Nov 2023
29 novembre, 2023 | GraniteShares
Major stock market indexes moved higher yet again last week. Stable longer-term Treasury rates (at levels significantly below 5%) and more weak economic data (falling home sales, PMI job cuts) provided the major impetus for the move higher, bolstering expectations of sooner-than-previously expected rate cuts. Interestingly, the Nasdaq Composite Index fared the worst last week, affected more by earnings concerns (after Nvidia delayed chip design and production for the Chinese market) than rate outlooks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average performed the best last week despite concerns surrounding consumer spending, perhaps buoyed by less techstock exposure. For the week, the S&P 500 Index rose 1.0% to 4,559.34, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 0.9% to 14,250.09 the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.3% to 35,390.57, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 3bps to 4.47% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) weakened 0.5%.
Major stock indexes notched impressive gains last week with the Nasdaq Composite index rising nearly 7%, the S&P 500 gaining almost 6% and the Dow Jones Industrial average climbing 5%. The gains came partially on the back of better-than-expected corporate earnings but mostly from increased expectations the Fed was done hiking rates. The FOMC left rates unchanged, as expected, but subsequent comments from Fed Chair Powell suggesting higher long-term rates may alleviate the need for further rate increases lifted expectations of a Fed monetary policy pivot and set the stage for lower rates and significantly increased risk-on sentiment. Wednesday’s refunding announcement, with issuance more heavily weighted to short-term bills and notes than expected, helped move longer-term rates lower and, as a result, stock prices higher. Friday’s weaker-than-expected jobs report seemingly affirmed Fed-pivot expectations, again pushing rates lower and lifting – in its wake – stock prices. For the week, the S&P 500 Index rose 5.8% to 4,358.34, the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 5.5% to 13,478.28 the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 5.1% to 34,061.32, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 26bps to 4.58% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) weakened 1.4%.
Argomento: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Industrials , Technology
Tipo di pubblicazione: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 03 Nov 2023
07 novembre, 2023 | GraniteShares
Major stock indexes notched impressive gains last week with the Nasdaq Composite index rising nearly 7%, the S&P 500 gaining almost 6% and the Dow Jones Industrial average climbing 5%. The gains came partially on the back of better-than-expected corporate earnings but mostly from increased expectations the Fed was done hiking rates. The FOMC left rates unchanged, as expected, but subsequent comments from Fed Chair Powell suggesting higher long-term rates may alleviate the need for further rate increases lifted expectations of a Fed monetary policy pivot and set the stage for lower rates and significantly increased risk-on sentiment. Wednesday’s refunding announcement, with issuance more heavily weighted to short-term bills and notes than expected, helped move longer-term rates lower and, as a result, stock prices higher. Friday’s weaker-than-expected jobs report seemingly affirmed Fed-pivot expectations, again pushing rates lower and lifting – in its wake – stock prices. For the week, the S&P 500 Index rose 5.8% to 4,358.34, the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 5.5% to 13,478.28 the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 5.1% to 34,061.32, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 26bps to 4.58% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) weakened 1.4%.
Stock markets moved lower again last week affected by rising interest rates, a slew of disappointing earnings results and, in a world where good news is bad news, stronger-than-expected GDP growth and consumer spending. Higher-rates-for-longer concerns surfaced early in the week, driving 10-year Treasury rates to the 5% level and while rates moved lower over the course of the week, the concerns remained embedded in market sentiment following a much stronger-than-expected GDP release, continued low initial jobless claims and a strong PMI Composite Index release. Alphabet’s disappointing cloud revenues/earnings (released Wednesday) added to downward market pressure, especially in the tech sector. Those losses were partially reversed Friday with Amazon earnings markedly exceeding analyst projections. Geopolitical concerns, centered in the Mid East, powered haven buying, lifting gold, Treasury rates and the U.S. dollar higher while increasing risk-off sentiment. For the week, the S&P 500 Index fell 2.6% to 4,113.05, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 2.9% to 12,611.58 the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.9% to 32,418.05, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 7bps to 4.84% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) strengthened 0.4%.
Argomento: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Industrials , Technology
Tipo di pubblicazione: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 27 Oct 2023
31 ottobre, 2023 | GraniteShares
Stock markets moved lower again last week affected by rising interest rates, a slew of disappointing earnings results and, in a world where good news is bad news, stronger-than-expected GDP growth and consumer spending. Higher-rates-for-longer concerns surfaced early in the week, driving 10-year Treasury rates to the 5% level and while rates moved lower over the course of the week, the concerns remained embedded in market sentiment following a much stronger-than-expected GDP release, continued low initial jobless claims and a strong PMI Composite Index release. Alphabet’s disappointing cloud revenues/earnings (released Wednesday) added to downward market pressure, especially in the tech sector. Those losses were partially reversed Friday with Amazon earnings markedly exceeding analyst projections. Geopolitical concerns, centered in the Mid East, powered haven buying, lifting gold, Treasury rates and the U.S. dollar higher while increasing risk-off sentiment. For the week, the S&P 500 Index fell 2.6% to 4,113.05, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 2.9% to 12,611.58 the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.9% to 32,418.05, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 7bps to 4.84% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) strengthened 0.4%.
Major stock indexes moved markedly lower last week, giving up sharp gains registered on Monday. Investor sentiment started the week re-invigored with lessened concerns surrounding Mid-East tensions and on perceived dovish comments from Fed officials. That sentiment began to shift Tuesday, however, after a much stronger-thanexpected retail sales report re-instilled Fed monetary policy angst, pushing 10-year Treasury rates almost 15bps higher and leaving stock indexes mainly unchanged. Renewed Mid-East concerns, U.S. imposed restrictions on AI chip sales to China and ever-increasing 10-year Treasury rates pushed stock markets lower Wednesday through Friday. Thursday’s Jerome Powell speech added to downward pressures with Chairman Powell saying he didn’t believe monetary policy was overly tight and that rates may need to stay high for a while. Thursday also saw an extremely weak existing home sales report with seemingly no real effect on Treasury rates or stock markets. Friday saw stock indexes drop 1% or more and saw 10-year Treasury rates move off of Thursday’s near 5% high both on no new news, For the week, the S&P 500 Index fell 2.4% to 4,224.16, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 3.2% to 12,983.81 the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.9% to 33,127.21, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 29bps to 4.81% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) weakened 0.5%
Argomento: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Tipo di pubblicazione: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 20 Oct 2023
24 ottobre, 2023 | GraniteShares
Major stock indexes moved markedly lower last week, giving up sharp gains registered on Monday. Investor sentiment started the week re-invigored with lessened concerns surrounding Mid-East tensions and on perceived dovish comments from Fed officials. That sentiment began to shift Tuesday, however, after a much stronger-thanexpected retail sales report re-instilled Fed monetary policy angst, pushing 10-year Treasury rates almost 15bps higher and leaving stock indexes mainly unchanged. Renewed Mid-East concerns, U.S. imposed restrictions on AI chip sales to China and ever-increasing 10-year Treasury rates pushed stock markets lower Wednesday through Friday. Thursday’s Jerome Powell speech added to downward pressures with Chairman Powell saying he didn’t believe monetary policy was overly tight and that rates may need to stay high for a while. Thursday also saw an extremely weak existing home sales report with seemingly no real effect on Treasury rates or stock markets. Friday saw stock indexes drop 1% or more and saw 10-year Treasury rates move off of Thursday’s near 5% high both on no new news, For the week, the S&P 500 Index fell 2.4% to 4,224.16, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 3.2% to 12,983.81 the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.9% to 33,127.21, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 29bps to 4.81% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) weakened 0.5%
Stock prices moved noticeably higher early last week with all 3 major stock indexes gaining north of 1%. The increase came on the back of dovish comments from Fed officials, opining higher longer-term rates would likely make unnecessary additional rate increases. 10-year Treasury rates, reacting to these comments, fell over 25bps through Wednesday. A slightly better-than-expected PPI release (Wednesday), increasing hopes of cooling inflation added to the upward momentum. Sentiment changed, however, following a lukewarm CPI release Thursday, re-igniting higher-rates-for-longer concerns, pushing the 10-year Treasury rate almost 15bps higher and pressuring stock prices lower. That pressure continued through Friday with risk-off sentiment dominating markets on growing concerns surrounding Israel’s counteroffensive against Hamas terror attacks. The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 Indexes moved markedly lower while haven asset prices moved sharply higher. For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 0.4% to 4,327.28, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.2% to 13,407.23, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8% to 33,670.29 the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 19bps to 4.62% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) strengthened 0.6%.
Argomento: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Industrials , Technology
Tipo di pubblicazione: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 13 Oct 2023
17 ottobre, 2023 | GraniteShares
Stock prices moved noticeably higher early last week with all 3 major stock indexes gaining north of 1%. The increase came on the back of dovish comments from Fed officials, opining higher longer-term rates would likely make unnecessary additional rate increases. 10-year Treasury rates, reacting to these comments, fell over 25bps through Wednesday. A slightly better-than-expected PPI release (Wednesday), increasing hopes of cooling inflation added to the upward momentum. Sentiment changed, however, following a lukewarm CPI release Thursday, re-igniting higher-rates-for-longer concerns, pushing the 10-year Treasury rate almost 15bps higher and pressuring stock prices lower. That pressure continued through Friday with risk-off sentiment dominating markets on growing concerns surrounding Israel’s counteroffensive against Hamas terror attacks. The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 Indexes moved markedly lower while haven asset prices moved sharply higher. For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 0.4% to 4,327.28, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.2% to 13,407.23, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8% to 33,670.29 the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 19bps to 4.62% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) strengthened 0.6%.
A somewhat mixed week for major stock indexes. The Nasdaq Composite Index performed the best, gaining over 1.5%, followed by the S&P 500 Index, up ½ percent and trailed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, down about 1/3 percent. The dominant theme last week was sharply higher Treasury rates and there deleterious effect on economic growth, corporate profits and stock prices in general. Tuesday’s significantly stronger-than-expected JOLTS report was the main impetus for higher rates. 10-year Treasury rates rose 11bps Tuesday after rising a like amount Monday. Stock prices, reacting to higher rates, fell sharply Tuesday with all 3 major indexes recording losses greater than 1%. Sentiment, however, reversed Wednesday, with stock prices regaining a good portion of their losses after a much weaker-than-expected ADP payroll report. Markets waffled through Thursday in front of Friday’s payroll report and then, interestingly, noticeably rallied (and Treasury rates fell) despite a much stronger than-expected jobs report, possibly because wage growth as reported in the report continued to soften and came in below expectations as well. For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 0.5% to 4,308.50, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.6% to 13,431.34, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.3% to 33,40758, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 23bps to 4.81% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) weakened 0.1%.
Argomento: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Industrials , Technology
Tipo di pubblicazione: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 06 Oct 2023
10 ottobre, 2023 | GraniteShares
A somewhat mixed week for major stock indexes. The Nasdaq Composite Index performed the best, gaining over 1.5%, followed by the S&P 500 Index, up ½ percent and trailed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, down about 1/3 percent. The dominant theme last week was sharply higher Treasury rates and there deleterious effect on economic growth, corporate profits and stock prices in general. Tuesday’s significantly stronger-than-expected JOLTS report was the main impetus for higher rates. 10-year Treasury rates rose 11bps Tuesday after rising a like amount Monday. Stock prices, reacting to higher rates, fell sharply Tuesday with all 3 major indexes recording losses greater than 1%. Sentiment, however, reversed Wednesday, with stock prices regaining a good portion of their losses after a much weaker-than-expected ADP payroll report. Markets waffled through Thursday in front of Friday’s payroll report and then, interestingly, noticeably rallied (and Treasury rates fell) despite a much stronger than-expected jobs report, possibly because wage growth as reported in the report continued to soften and came in below expectations as well. For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 0.5% to 4,308.50, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.6% to 13,431.34, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.3% to 33,40758, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 23bps to 4.81% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) weakened 0.1%.
Somewhat of a mixed week for the 3 major stock indexes. Higher-rates-for-longer concerns, motivated by resilient economic data (including durable goods orders, jobless claims and final Q2 GDP estimate), permeated throughout the week, increasing risk-off sentiment and increasing, paradoxically, recession concerns. Interestingly, however, the Nasdaq Composite Index nicely outperformed both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index. The outperformance is even more striking given the FTC’s anti-trust lawsuit announced early last week against Amazon. Friday’s mostly better-than-expected PCE Price Index release favoured tech stocks, lending more support to the Nasdaq Composite Index as did the accompanying move lower (off their intraweek highs) for 10- year Treasury rates (no matter how slight) and the U.S. dollar. For the week, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.7% to 4,288.05, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 0.1% to 13,219.32, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.4% to 33,507.75, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 14bps to 4.58% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) strengthened 0.6%
Argomento: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Industrials , Technology
Tipo di pubblicazione: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 29 Sep 2023
04 ottobre, 2023 | GraniteShares
Somewhat of a mixed week for the 3 major stock indexes. Higher-rates-for-longer concerns, motivated by resilient economic data (including durable goods orders, jobless claims and final Q2 GDP estimate), permeated throughout the week, increasing risk-off sentiment and increasing, paradoxically, recession concerns. Interestingly, however, the Nasdaq Composite Index nicely outperformed both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index. The outperformance is even more striking given the FTC’s anti-trust lawsuit announced early last week against Amazon. Friday’s mostly better-than-expected PCE Price Index release favoured tech stocks, lending more support to the Nasdaq Composite Index as did the accompanying move lower (off their intraweek highs) for 10- year Treasury rates (no matter how slight) and the U.S. dollar. For the week, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.7% to 4,288.05, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 0.1% to 13,219.32, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.4% to 33,507.75, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 14bps to 4.58% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) strengthened 0.6%
A down week for U.S. stock markets, pressured by higher rates and a resilient economy. Markets were subdued prior to Wednesday’s FOMC announcement, moving slightly lower on uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s projections and monetary “tone”. Wednesday’s as-expected announcement of no change to the Fed funds target rate was accompanied, however, by hawkish overtones including prospects for another rate hike before year-end and the signalling that rates could very well remain higher for longer than previously expected, adding to downward price pressures. Thursday’s lower-than-expected initial jobless claims seemed to topple the giant, pushing the 3 major stock indexes down over 1% and sending the 10-year Treasury rate to 16-year highs. Markets ended the week on downbeat with risk-off sentiment setting the tone. For the week, the S&P 500 Index fell 2.9% to 4,320.06, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 3.6% to 13,211.81, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 1.9% to 33,964.44, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 11bps to 4.44% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) strengthened 0.2%.
Argomento: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Industrials , Technology
Tipo di pubblicazione: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 22 Sep 2023
26 settembre, 2023 | GraniteShares
A down week for U.S. stock markets, pressured by higher rates and a resilient economy. Markets were subdued prior to Wednesday’s FOMC announcement, moving slightly lower on uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s projections and monetary “tone”. Wednesday’s as-expected announcement of no change to the Fed funds target rate was accompanied, however, by hawkish overtones including prospects for another rate hike before year-end and the signalling that rates could very well remain higher for longer than previously expected, adding to downward price pressures. Thursday’s lower-than-expected initial jobless claims seemed to topple the giant, pushing the 3 major stock indexes down over 1% and sending the 10-year Treasury rate to 16-year highs. Markets ended the week on downbeat with risk-off sentiment setting the tone. For the week, the S&P 500 Index fell 2.9% to 4,320.06, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 3.6% to 13,211.81, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 1.9% to 33,964.44, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 11bps to 4.44% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) strengthened 0.2%.
Stock markets started last week on a positive note, climbing on reports of Tesla’s supercomputer development to power its driverless-system capabilities. Markets retreated slightly Tuesday following Oracle’s downbeat guidance/forecast but continued higher Wednesday and Thursday after a mainly-as-expected CPI release Wednesday, powered by hopes of a resilient economy despite continued vigilance from the Fed. Friday, however, saw that optimism fade, triggered by a disappointing Adobe earnings report, a sustained rally in oil prices and a surprise decline in consumer sentiment. All 3 major stock market indexes, up 1% through Thursday, experienced sharp declines, driving both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes slightly into the red and Dow Jones Industrial Average to almost unchanged. For the week, the S&P 500 Index decreased 0.2% to 4,450.32, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 0.4% to 13,704.70, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.1% to 34,618.77, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 7bps to 4.33% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) strengthened 0.2%.
Argomento: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Industrials , Technology
Tipo di pubblicazione: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 15 Sep 2023
20 settembre, 2023 | GraniteShares
Stock markets started last week on a positive note, climbing on reports of Tesla’s supercomputer development to power its driverless-system capabilities. Markets retreated slightly Tuesday following Oracle’s downbeat guidance/forecast but continued higher Wednesday and Thursday after a mainly-as-expected CPI release Wednesday, powered by hopes of a resilient economy despite continued vigilance from the Fed. Friday, however, saw that optimism fade, triggered by a disappointing Adobe earnings report, a sustained rally in oil prices and a surprise decline in consumer sentiment. All 3 major stock market indexes, up 1% through Thursday, experienced sharp declines, driving both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes slightly into the red and Dow Jones Industrial Average to almost unchanged. For the week, the S&P 500 Index decreased 0.2% to 4,450.32, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 0.4% to 13,704.70, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.1% to 34,618.77, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 7bps to 4.33% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) strengthened 0.2%.
Stock markets moved lower last week with the Nasdaq Composite Index registering the steepest decline versus the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Concerns of “higher-rates-for-longer” clouded investor outlooks, propelled by lower-than-expected initial jobless claims and a stronger-than-expected ISM Services Index release. Higher oil prices in front of next week’s CPI release added to concerns, increasing expectations of higherthan-desired inflation. Reflecting these concerns, the dollar continued to strengthen and 10-year Treasury rates rose powered by a rise in 10-year inflation expectations. For the week, the S&P 500 Index decreased 1.3% to 4,458.85, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 1.9% to 13,761.53, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.8% to 34,577.28, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 8bps to 4.26% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) strengthened 0.8%.
Argomento: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Industrials , Technology
Tipo di pubblicazione: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 08 Sep 2023
11 settembre, 2023 | GraniteShares
Stock markets moved lower last week with the Nasdaq Composite Index registering the steepest decline versus the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Concerns of “higher-rates-for-longer” clouded investor outlooks, propelled by lower-than-expected initial jobless claims and a stronger-than-expected ISM Services Index release. Higher oil prices in front of next week’s CPI release added to concerns, increasing expectations of higherthan-desired inflation. Reflecting these concerns, the dollar continued to strengthen and 10-year Treasury rates rose powered by a rise in 10-year inflation expectations. For the week, the S&P 500 Index decreased 1.3% to 4,458.85, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 1.9% to 13,761.53, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.8% to 34,577.28, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 8bps to 4.26% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) strengthened 0.8%.
All 3 major indexes moved higher last week, powered mainly by investor reassessment of the strength of the economy and, as a result, of a possible relaxing of the Fed’s current monetary policy. Weaker-than-expected JOLTS and consumer confidence releases early last week seemingly accentuated Fed Chair Powell’s “proceed with caution” Jackson Hole comments, increasing expectations of a less aggressive Fed, pushing Treasury rates lower and stock prices higher. More (but less) of the same followed with an unexpected revision lower to Q2 GDP. Thursday’s PCE Price Index release, while generally reflecting a slowing in core and headline inflation, also showed continued higher-than-desired (by the Fed) wage and services inflation, increasing (at least momentarily) uncertainty regarding the Fed’s future course of action. Friday’s weaker-than-expected Jobs Report, also seemingly increased uncertainty with lower-than-expected jobs created offset by slightly higher-than-expected wage growth. 10-year Treasury rates, down 13bps through Thursday, rose 8bps Friday (following the Jobs Report), finishing the week 5bps lower. The move lower was entirely due to falling 10-year inflation expectations. For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 2.5% to 4,515.77, the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 3.3% to 14,031.82, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.4% to 34,838.01, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate decreased 5bps to 4.18% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) strengthened 0.2%.
Argomento: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Tipo di pubblicazione: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 01 Sep 2023
05 settembre, 2023 | GraniteShares
All 3 major indexes moved higher last week, powered mainly by investor reassessment of the strength of the economy and, as a result, of a possible relaxing of the Fed’s current monetary policy. Weaker-than-expected JOLTS and consumer confidence releases early last week seemingly accentuated Fed Chair Powell’s “proceed with caution” Jackson Hole comments, increasing expectations of a less aggressive Fed, pushing Treasury rates lower and stock prices higher. More (but less) of the same followed with an unexpected revision lower to Q2 GDP. Thursday’s PCE Price Index release, while generally reflecting a slowing in core and headline inflation, also showed continued higher-than-desired (by the Fed) wage and services inflation, increasing (at least momentarily) uncertainty regarding the Fed’s future course of action. Friday’s weaker-than-expected Jobs Report, also seemingly increased uncertainty with lower-than-expected jobs created offset by slightly higher-than-expected wage growth. 10-year Treasury rates, down 13bps through Thursday, rose 8bps Friday (following the Jobs Report), finishing the week 5bps lower. The move lower was entirely due to falling 10-year inflation expectations. For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 2.5% to 4,515.77, the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 3.3% to 14,031.82, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.4% to 34,838.01, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate decreased 5bps to 4.18% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) strengthened 0.2%.
Stock markets moved higher last week, this time with the Nasdaq Composite Index outperforming both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index. Markets moved higher through mid-week in expectation of the Fed’s tightening operations reaching their zenith after one last 25bp increase. Those expectations were seemingly met Wednesday after an as-expected 25bp hike in the fed funds target range and after somewhat supportive comments by Fed Chair Powell opining that the after effects of heretofore tightening possibly have yet to be seen. Those expectations changed Thursday, however, following smaller-than-expected initial jobless claims and greaterthan-expected GDP growth, generating renewed concerns the Fed may find reason to tighten more (or keep rates higher longer), pushing all 3 indexes at least 1/2 percent lower and 10-year Treasury rates 13bps higher. Alas, Thursday’s concerns were lessened Friday with price and wage inflation data pointing to continued cooling. Both the headline and core PCE Price Index and the Employment Cost Index releases came in slightly better than expected, rejuvenating hopes of “peak rates” and a soon-to-be more benign Fed, powering stock markets markedly higher and partially reversing Thursday’s 10-year Treasury rate rise. For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 1.0% to 4,582.23, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.0% to 14,316.66, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.7% to close at 35,458.96, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 12bp to 3.96% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) strengthened 0.6%.
Argomento: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Healthcare , Industrials , Technology
Tipo di pubblicazione: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 28 July 2023
01 settembre, 2023 | GraniteShares
Stock markets moved higher last week, this time with the Nasdaq Composite Index outperforming both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index. Markets moved higher through mid-week in expectation of the Fed’s tightening operations reaching their zenith after one last 25bp increase. Those expectations were seemingly met Wednesday after an as-expected 25bp hike in the fed funds target range and after somewhat supportive comments by Fed Chair Powell opining that the after effects of heretofore tightening possibly have yet to be seen. Those expectations changed Thursday, however, following smaller-than-expected initial jobless claims and greaterthan-expected GDP growth, generating renewed concerns the Fed may find reason to tighten more (or keep rates higher longer), pushing all 3 indexes at least 1/2 percent lower and 10-year Treasury rates 13bps higher. Alas, Thursday’s concerns were lessened Friday with price and wage inflation data pointing to continued cooling. Both the headline and core PCE Price Index and the Employment Cost Index releases came in slightly better than expected, rejuvenating hopes of “peak rates” and a soon-to-be more benign Fed, powering stock markets markedly higher and partially reversing Thursday’s 10-year Treasury rate rise. For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 1.0% to 4,582.23, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.0% to 14,316.66, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.7% to close at 35,458.96, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 12bp to 3.96% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) strengthened 0.6%.
Stock markets rose last week, with the 2 of the 3 major market indexes registering gains with somewhat large disparity between index returns. Uncertainty ruled early week trading with investor awaiting Nvidia’s earnings report Wednesday (after the close) and Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech Friday. Macy’s poor earnings report Tuesday, adding to concerns regarding consumer strength, helped pressure markets lower. Wednesday’s much better-than-expected Toll Brothers’ results (indicating surprisingly strong home building strength despite the high level of mortgage rates) along with generally positive Nvidia expectations pushed all 3 index levels at least ½ percent higher. Though Nvidia’s earnings report beat expectations (sending the stock almost 10% higher after hours Wednesday), markets fell more than 1% Thursday (Nvidia ended the day practically unchanged), besieged by growing concerns of the wherewithal of the economy follow much weaker-than-expected durable goods orders. Lower-than-expected jobless claims, indicating a still-resilient job market, added to those concerns by increasing expectations of continued Fed tight monetary policies. Powell’s comments Friday overall appeared to buoy markets, leaving investors with expectations the Fed would remain vigilant in its fight against inflation but act with caution. 10-year Treasury rates, reflecting investor uncertainty early last week, rose noticeably Tuesday only to fall sharply Wednesday to end the week about 2bps lower. For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 0.8% to 4,405.71, the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 2.3% to 13,590.65, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.5% to 34,346.96, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate decreased 2bps to 4.23% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) strengthened 0.8%.
Argomento: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Industrials , Technology
Tipo di pubblicazione: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 25 Aug 2023
01 settembre, 2023 | GraniteShares
Stock markets rose last week, with the 2 of the 3 major market indexes registering gains with somewhat large disparity between index returns. Uncertainty ruled early week trading with investor awaiting Nvidia’s earnings report Wednesday (after the close) and Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech Friday. Macy’s poor earnings report Tuesday, adding to concerns regarding consumer strength, helped pressure markets lower. Wednesday’s much better-than-expected Toll Brothers’ results (indicating surprisingly strong home building strength despite the high level of mortgage rates) along with generally positive Nvidia expectations pushed all 3 index levels at least ½ percent higher. Though Nvidia’s earnings report beat expectations (sending the stock almost 10% higher after hours Wednesday), markets fell more than 1% Thursday (Nvidia ended the day practically unchanged), besieged by growing concerns of the wherewithal of the economy follow much weaker-than-expected durable goods orders. Lower-than-expected jobless claims, indicating a still-resilient job market, added to those concerns by increasing expectations of continued Fed tight monetary policies. Powell’s comments Friday overall appeared to buoy markets, leaving investors with expectations the Fed would remain vigilant in its fight against inflation but act with caution. 10-year Treasury rates, reflecting investor uncertainty early last week, rose noticeably Tuesday only to fall sharply Wednesday to end the week about 2bps lower. For the week, the S&P 500 Index increased 0.8% to 4,405.71, the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 2.3% to 13,590.65, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.5% to 34,346.96, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate decreased 2bps to 4.23% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) strengthened 0.8%.
All 3 major stock market indexes moved noticeably lower last week pressured by growing “higher-rates-for-longer” concerns. Good economic data released last week, including better-than-expected retail sales and initial jobless claims, added to rate concerns pushing both nominal and real 10-year Treasury rates higher and, as a result, pressuring stock prices lower. Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes release also contributed to expectations of continued Fed vigilance, revealing most FOMC members continue to be worried about current and prospective inflation levels. The Atlanta Fed’s revision higher to its Q3 GDP growth forecast (also on Wednesday) added to higher-rate concerns as well. Reflecting higher-rate concerns, the 10-year Treasury rate rose 9bps with 10-year real rates rising 16bps and 10-year inflation expectations falling 7bps. For the week, the S&P 500 Index fell 2.1% to 4,369.71, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 2.6% to 13,290.78, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 2.2% to 34,501.88, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 9bps to 4.25% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) strengthened 0.6%.
Argomento: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Industrials , Technology
Tipo di pubblicazione: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 18 Aug 2023
22 agosto, 2023 | GraniteShares
All 3 major stock market indexes moved noticeably lower last week pressured by growing “higher-rates-for-longer” concerns. Good economic data released last week, including better-than-expected retail sales and initial jobless claims, added to rate concerns pushing both nominal and real 10-year Treasury rates higher and, as a result, pressuring stock prices lower. Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes release also contributed to expectations of continued Fed vigilance, revealing most FOMC members continue to be worried about current and prospective inflation levels. The Atlanta Fed’s revision higher to its Q3 GDP growth forecast (also on Wednesday) added to higher-rate concerns as well. Reflecting higher-rate concerns, the 10-year Treasury rate rose 9bps with 10-year real rates rising 16bps and 10-year inflation expectations falling 7bps. For the week, the S&P 500 Index fell 2.1% to 4,369.71, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 2.6% to 13,290.78, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 2.2% to 34,501.88, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 9bps to 4.25% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) strengthened 0.6%.
Index performance diverged last week with the Nasdaq Composite noticeably underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the only index to end the week with a gain though the S&P 500 Index finished the week slightly lower, falling a bit more than ¼ percent. Downward pressure on stocks seemed to come from, 1) concerns the Fed will keep rates higher for longer, 2) a faltering Chinese economy and 3) renewed concerns surrounding regional bank health following Moody’s creditrating downgrade of 10 regional banks. Current interest rate levels may also be detracting from stock market performance with bonds providing a more attractive alternative investment. Thursday’s better-than-expected CPI release momentarily pushed markets higher, fueling hopes the Fed will be less aggressive going forward, but those hopes were diminished Friday following a higher-than-expected PPI release. For the week, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.3% to 4,464.05, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 1.9% to 13,644.85, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6% to 35,281.47, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 12bps to 4.16% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) strengthened 0.8%.
Argomento: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Industrials , Technology
Tipo di pubblicazione: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 11 Aug 2023
15 agosto, 2023 | GraniteShares
Index performance diverged last week with the Nasdaq Composite noticeably underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the only index to end the week with a gain though the S&P 500 Index finished the week slightly lower, falling a bit more than ¼ percent. Downward pressure on stocks seemed to come from, 1) concerns the Fed will keep rates higher for longer, 2) a faltering Chinese economy and 3) renewed concerns surrounding regional bank health following Moody’s creditrating downgrade of 10 regional banks. Current interest rate levels may also be detracting from stock market performance with bonds providing a more attractive alternative investment. Thursday’s better-than-expected CPI release momentarily pushed markets higher, fueling hopes the Fed will be less aggressive going forward, but those hopes were diminished Friday following a higher-than-expected PPI release. For the week, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.3% to 4,464.05, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 1.9% to 13,644.85, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6% to 35,281.47, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 12bps to 4.16% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) strengthened 0.8%.
Stock markets moved lower last week with all 3 major indexes losing more than 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average noticeably outperformed the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 Indexes with the latter 2 indexes falling south of 2%. Rising Treasury yields appeared to be the primary culprit for last week’s losses, with investor interest seemingly tilting toward bond rather than stock investments (strong gains year to date also may be part of the dynamics). Treasury yields, up over 20bps through Thursday, moved markedly higher following the Treasuries much larger-than-expected funding announcement Wednesday. Fitch Ratings’ downgrade (Wednesday) of the U.S. credit rating (from AAA to AA+) may have been another factor contributing to higher Treasury yields and lower stock prices. Friday’s payroll report, showing a smaller-than-expected increase in payrolls but continued upward wage pressures, did little to reverse investor sentiment toward stocks but seemingly allayed “higher rates” expectations, moving the 10-year Treasury rate 14bps lower. For the week, the S&P 500 Index fell 2.3% to 4,478.03, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 2.9% to 13,909.24, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 1.1% to 35,065.15, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 8bps to 4.04% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) strengthened 0.4%.
Argomento: Telecoms , Financials , Basic Materials , Energy , Industrials , Technology
Tipo di pubblicazione: Market Commentaries
The Long and Short of it, week ending 04 Aug 2023
08 agosto, 2023 | GraniteShares
Stock markets moved lower last week with all 3 major indexes losing more than 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average noticeably outperformed the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 Indexes with the latter 2 indexes falling south of 2%. Rising Treasury yields appeared to be the primary culprit for last week’s losses, with investor interest seemingly tilting toward bond rather than stock investments (strong gains year to date also may be part of the dynamics). Treasury yields, up over 20bps through Thursday, moved markedly higher following the Treasuries much larger-than-expected funding announcement Wednesday. Fitch Ratings’ downgrade (Wednesday) of the U.S. credit rating (from AAA to AA+) may have been another factor contributing to higher Treasury yields and lower stock prices. Friday’s payroll report, showing a smaller-than-expected increase in payrolls but continued upward wage pressures, did little to reverse investor sentiment toward stocks but seemingly allayed “higher rates” expectations, moving the 10-year Treasury rate 14bps lower. For the week, the S&P 500 Index fell 2.3% to 4,478.03, the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 2.9% to 13,909.24, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 1.1% to 35,065.15, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 8bps to 4.04% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index – DXY) strengthened 0.4%.
