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Upcoming Tesla Earnings

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Upcoming Tesla Earnings

Teslas Earnings Preview: Key Metrics and Market Movers to Watch

📅 Tesla will announce its Q2 2024 earnings report on 23rd July 2024

Tesla is set to announce its earnings on July 23 after the market close. While full-year forecasts for its primary automotive segment have been lowered, investors remain optimistic about the potential growth from its AI, FSD, robotaxi, energy storage, and Optimus projects.

Investors are eagerly awaiting updates on Tesla's debut event for its autonomous robotaxis. Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced on 22nd July that the event, originally scheduled for 8th August, has been postponed to October. He stated the reason for the delay in debut was to produce more prototypes. Musk explained that the delay was due to a design change he had requested and mentioned that the additional time might enable Tesla to showcase "a few other things" at the event.

Ket Metrics to Watch

Revenue: Tesla reports its revenues under two segments – automotive, and energy generation and storage. The majority of its revenue comes from automotive sales and services.

Automotive Revenue: Tesla’s automotive revenue dropped by 13% year-over-year to $17.4 billion in Q1 2024, following a 9% decrease in deliveries and lower average selling prices. This contributed to a 9% overall revenue decline, bringing total revenues to $21.3 billion. Tesla attributed the decline to seasonality, macroeconomic challenges, factory shutdowns in Germany, and supply disruptions due to conflicts in the Red Sea region but stated, “the second quarter will be a lot better.” With sequential improvement in deliveries in Q2, revenues are likely to improve from Q1 but may still show a year-over-year decline.

Energy Storage and Generation Profit Margins:

The strong and rising demand for energy, especially driven by the artificial intelligence boom, is favorable for Tesla’s energy business, which accounted for 7% of first-quarter revenues. The business reported record profit margins of 24.6%, with energy storage deployments, particularly the Megapack, reaching an all-time high in Q1. The Megapack is Tesla’s energy storage solution for commercial, industrial, utility, and energy generation customers. In the second quarter, Tesla’s storage deployments rose to a record 9.4 GWh (gigawatt hours), more than double the previous quarter. With more than 20% gross margin in the last three quarters, this high-margin segment is expected to be a future growth engine for Tesla. Key metrics to watch in the second quarter will be energy storage deployments and gross margins.

Free Cash Flow (FCF):

Tesla reported negative free cash flow in the first quarter but anticipates returning to positive free cash flow in the second quarter, expecting a reversal in its inventory build.

Profit Margins:

Tesla’s price cuts aimed at combating slumping EV (electric vehicle) sales amid an industry-wide slowdown have eroded its margins. Operating margins for the first quarter of 2024 more than halved to 5.5% from 11.4% a year ago. This will be a key metric to watch in the second quarter.

US Market Share: Tesla’s U.S. EV market share dropped to 49.7% in the second quarter, down from 59.3% a year ago, primarily due to intense competition. In an increasingly competitive global EV market, Tesla’s models are seen as aging compared to rivals’ newer offerings. The company continues to derive a significant portion of its automotive sales from the Model Y SUV and the Model 3 sedan.

Moreover, Tesla plans to begin production of affordable EVs later this year or early next year, moving up the timeline from the previous target of mid-2025. The current production lines are expected to handle this capacity without the need for new manufacturing facilities.

Additionally, Tesla has tempered its short-term growth projections, indicating that deliveries might fall short of last year's figures. While working on the launch of next-generation vehicles and other products, Tesla anticipates its vehicle volume growth rate in 2024 to be significantly lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023.

Tesla's Outlook

Tesla anticipates its energy storage deployments to grow at least 75% in 2024 compared to 2023, though with fluctuations from quarter to quarter. The growth rates of energy storage deployments and revenue in Tesla's Energy Generation and Storage business are expected to outpace those of the Automotive business in 2024. Tesla highlights this segment as a future profit driver.

Despite nearly a 40% increase over the past month, Tesla stock remains barely positive year-to-date, following the end of an 11-day winning streak that helped recover the year's earlier losses. The substantial gains reflect investor optimism driven by Tesla's better-than-expected Q2 vehicle deliveries and the upcoming robotaxi event.

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Sources:

  1. Investopedia
  2. Yahoo

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