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Gold is often though of as a hedge against inflation. With inflation reaching 40-year highs, some analysts may have expected gold to perform well. However, after a strong start of the year, mostly attributed to its role as safe-haven asset at the start of the Ukrainian war, the gold price retreated to its pre-covid 19 level. As of November 08, 2022, the price of gold is down 6.4% year to date (source Bloomberg).

Topic: Gold

Publication Type: Investment Cases

Gold Market Sentiments for the Entire Year

21 November, 2022 | GraniteShares
Gold is often though of as a hedge against inflation. With inflation reaching 40-year highs, some analysts may have expected gold to perform well. However, after a strong start of the year, mostly attributed to its role as safe-haven asset at the start of the Ukrainian war, the gold price retreated to its pre-covid 19 level. As of November 08, 2022, the price of gold is down 6.4% year to date (source Bloomberg).

The current economic tumult recatalyzes the classic, three-fold case for gold, namely asset stability, diversification and vulnerability of the dollar in the new Fed paradigm. This investment case explores the critical dynamics that have propelled gold to new record highs above $2,000/oz, and how the asset's unique status combining characteristics of a commodity and a currency lend gold unique value as the global economy attempts a reset from the COVID-19 tumult.

Topic: Gold

Publication Type: Investment Cases

Investment Case for Gold as The Yellow Metal Charts New Record Highs

03 September, 2020 | GraniteShares
The current economic tumult recatalyzes the classic, three-fold case for gold, namely asset stability, diversification and vulnerability of the dollar in the new Fed paradigm. This investment case explores the critical dynamics that have propelled gold to new record highs above $2,000/oz, and how the asset's unique status combining characteristics of a commodity and a currency lend gold unique value as the global economy attempts a reset from the COVID-19 tumult.

The 60/40 portfolio, a strategy of dividing assets between 60% large cap equities and 40% bonds, has long served as the de facto benchmark for risk adjusted returns. The sizable equity allocation allows for decent upside capture and long-term growth, while the fixed income pool dampens the volatility inherent to stock ownership.

Topic: Gold

Publication Type: Investment Cases

Is Your Portfolio Sharpe Enough? Improving a 60/40 with Gold

02 September, 2020 | GraniteShares
The 60/40 portfolio, a strategy of dividing assets between 60% large cap equities and 40% bonds, has long served as the de facto benchmark for risk adjusted returns. The sizable equity allocation allows for decent upside capture and long-term growth, while the fixed income pool dampens the volatility inherent to stock ownership.

A somewhat choppy week for U.S. stock markets with the S&P 500 Index striving for but not reaching record highs on Wednesday. Despite stronger-than-expected U.S. economic reports (including lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims, strong retail sales and industrial production reports) and a falling number of new Covid-19 cases and deaths, U.S. stock markets struggled to move higher last week.  Concerns surrounding the legality of President Trump’s  executive orders combined with still-stalled congressional coronavirus-related stimulus negotiations and, perhaps, higher-than-expected PPI, CPI and wage inflation numbers may have limited stock market gains.  The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate moved higher all through the week, reacting to corporate and government supply pressures, higher-than-expected inflation numbers and strong U.S. economic reports. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 0.6% to 3,372.85, the Nasdaq Composite index increased 0.1% to 11,019.30, the 10-year U.S. interest rate increased 14 bps to 71 bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.4%.

Topic: Gold , Commodities

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

Commodities and Precious Metals Update (Week ending August 14 , 2020)

17 August, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
A somewhat choppy week for U.S. stock markets with the S&P 500 Index striving for but not reaching record highs on Wednesday. Despite stronger-than-expected U.S. economic reports (including lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims, strong retail sales and industrial production reports) and a falling number of new Covid-19 cases and deaths, U.S. stock markets struggled to move higher last week.  Concerns surrounding the legality of President Trump’s  executive orders combined with still-stalled congressional coronavirus-related stimulus negotiations and, perhaps, higher-than-expected PPI, CPI and wage inflation numbers may have limited stock market gains.  The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate moved higher all through the week, reacting to corporate and government supply pressures, higher-than-expected inflation numbers and strong U.S. economic reports. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 0.6% to 3,372.85, the Nasdaq Composite index increased 0.1% to 11,019.30, the 10-year U.S. interest rate increased 14 bps to 71 bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.4%.

Against a backdrop of better-than-expected economic reports and earning results and indications new Covid-19 cases may be falling, U.S. stock markets all moved higher again last week despite concerns over increased U.S.-China frictions and stalled congressional progess on additional coronavirus relief funds. Better-than-expected factory orders and ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing index numbers combined with lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims and a stronger-than-expected payroll report helped move U.S. equity markets higher. Earning results reported last week were predominantly positive also helping move equity markets higher. Early-in-the-week optimism that congress would reach agreement on additional coronavirus-related relief funds faded as the week ended with no progress, but was slightly ameliorated with the Trump administration announcing the President may take executive action to extend existing programs. Both the U.S. dollar and the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate moved off their lows reached earlier in the week on stronger-than-expected economic reports and signs the number of new Covid-19 cases may be decreasing. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite index each increased 2.5% to 3,351.28 and 11,010.98, respectively. the 10-year U.S. interest rate increased 4 bps to 57 bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) was unchanged.

Topic: Gold , Commodities

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

Commodities and Precious Metals Update (Week ending August 7 , 2020)

10 August, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Against a backdrop of better-than-expected economic reports and earning results and indications new Covid-19 cases may be falling, U.S. stock markets all moved higher again last week despite concerns over increased U.S.-China frictions and stalled congressional progess on additional coronavirus relief funds. Better-than-expected factory orders and ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing index numbers combined with lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims and a stronger-than-expected payroll report helped move U.S. equity markets higher. Earning results reported last week were predominantly positive also helping move equity markets higher. Early-in-the-week optimism that congress would reach agreement on additional coronavirus-related relief funds faded as the week ended with no progress, but was slightly ameliorated with the Trump administration announcing the President may take executive action to extend existing programs. Both the U.S. dollar and the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate moved off their lows reached earlier in the week on stronger-than-expected economic reports and signs the number of new Covid-19 cases may be decreasing. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite index each increased 2.5% to 3,351.28 and 11,010.98, respectively. the 10-year U.S. interest rate increased 4 bps to 57 bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) was unchanged.

Oil prices moved lower last week pressured by global recession concerns and increased Russian production.  Unchanged to slightly higher Monday on expectations of increased demand from China’s reopening, prices moved markedly lower Tuesday on expectations of a strong build in U.S. oil inventories and continued contraction in U.S. economic activity.   Prices rebounded partially Thursday, supported by stronger-than-expected economic data only to see those gains and more erased by greatly increased Russian oil production (as indicated by a significant increase of Baltic seaport tanker loadings).

Topic: Commodities

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

Commoditized Wisdom: Metals & Markets Update (Week Ending January 27, 2023)

30 January, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices moved lower last week pressured by global recession concerns and increased Russian production.  Unchanged to slightly higher Monday on expectations of increased demand from China’s reopening, prices moved markedly lower Tuesday on expectations of a strong build in U.S. oil inventories and continued contraction in U.S. economic activity.   Prices rebounded partially Thursday, supported by stronger-than-expected economic data only to see those gains and more erased by greatly increased Russian oil production (as indicated by a significant increase of Baltic seaport tanker loadings).

Oil prices rose last week with expectations of revived Chinese demand overcoming hawkish Fed comments, another large build in U.S. oil inventories and weak U.S. economic data.   A decline in the U.S. rig count as reported by Baker Hughes and the IEA’s increased oil demand forecast also supported prices.  Natural gas prices, down 5% on the week, suffered from warm weather, moderate demand and increased inventories.

Topic: Commodities

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

Commoditized Wisdom: Metals & Markets Update (Week Ending January 20, 2023)

23 January, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices rose last week with expectations of revived Chinese demand overcoming hawkish Fed comments, another large build in U.S. oil inventories and weak U.S. economic data.   A decline in the U.S. rig count as reported by Baker Hughes and the IEA’s increased oil demand forecast also supported prices.  Natural gas prices, down 5% on the week, suffered from warm weather, moderate demand and increased inventories.

Oil prices sharply increased last week, reversing most of the previous week’s losses.  The primary driving force behind the gain was China’s reopening of its borders.  The reopening along with increased Chinese crude imports increased demand expectations pushing prices higher.   Also buoying prices were the EIA’s forecast of record global petroleum consumption for 202, growing expectations of easing Fed monetary policy following Thursday’s slightly better-than-expected U.S. CPI release and a weaker U.S. dollar. 

Topic: Commodities

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

Commoditized Wisdom: Metals & Markets Update (Week Ending January 13, 2023)

17 January, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices sharply increased last week, reversing most of the previous week’s losses.  The primary driving force behind the gain was China’s reopening of its borders.  The reopening along with increased Chinese crude imports increased demand expectations pushing prices higher.   Also buoying prices were the EIA’s forecast of record global petroleum consumption for 202, growing expectations of easing Fed monetary policy following Thursday’s slightly better-than-expected U.S. CPI release and a weaker U.S. dollar. 

Gold prices rose last week, increasing every day but Thursday as expectations increased the Fed may need to lower rates sooner than expected.  Contracting U.S. manufacturing and services activity as shown by Manufacturing PMI released Tuesday and the ISM Manufacturing Index released Wednesday supported expectations of a more benign Fed moving forward.  While Thursday’s lower-than-expected initial jobless claims number weakened those expectations (pushing gold prices lower), Friday’s job report showing weakening wage pressures, revived those expectations propelling gold prices almost 2% higher.   Silver prices, up over 2.5% Friday, ended the week down about ½ percent.  Platinum prices performed similarly to gold prices.

Topic: Commodities

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

Commoditized Wisdom: Metals & Markets Update (Week Ending January 6, 2023)

09 January, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Gold prices rose last week, increasing every day but Thursday as expectations increased the Fed may need to lower rates sooner than expected.  Contracting U.S. manufacturing and services activity as shown by Manufacturing PMI released Tuesday and the ISM Manufacturing Index released Wednesday supported expectations of a more benign Fed moving forward.  While Thursday’s lower-than-expected initial jobless claims number weakened those expectations (pushing gold prices lower), Friday’s job report showing weakening wage pressures, revived those expectations propelling gold prices almost 2% higher.   Silver prices, up over 2.5% Friday, ended the week down about ½ percent.  Platinum prices performed similarly to gold prices.

Precious metal prices moved higher last week buoyed by a weaker U.S. dollar and increased demand expectations resulting from China’s easing Covid curbs.   Silver and platinum prices moved higher with gold prices but with larger gains on the week.    For the year spot gold prices were down marginally, falling 0.2%. spot silver prices increased 0.8% and spot platinum prices climbed 11.1%.

Topic: Commodities

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

Commoditized Wisdom: Metals & Markets Update (Week Ending December 30, 2022)

03 January, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Precious metal prices moved higher last week buoyed by a weaker U.S. dollar and increased demand expectations resulting from China’s easing Covid curbs.   Silver and platinum prices moved higher with gold prices but with larger gains on the week.    For the year spot gold prices were down marginally, falling 0.2%. spot silver prices increased 0.8% and spot platinum prices climbed 11.1%.

The unfortunate reality is that a deep chasm stands between investor income requirements and what conventional strategies can now yield. Alternative Income may help bridge the divide.

Topic: Income

Publication Type: Investment Cases

The Income Blueprint: Potential Strategy for Income Replacement with HIPS

13 October, 2020 | GraniteShares
The unfortunate reality is that a deep chasm stands between investor income requirements and what conventional strategies can now yield. Alternative Income may help bridge the divide.

Income is one of the most basic, yet important needs of any portfolio—the capacity to generate enduring cashflows to fund expenses. While searching for sustainable yield is never easy, over the last decade income investing become a most unpalatable cocktail — one part frustration and two parts despair (add bitters to taste).  These were the difficulties that pervaded income investing before COVID-19 struck, an economic shock that redoubled the income challenge to near unimaginable levels.

Topic: Income

Publication Type: Investment Cases

The Income Blueprint: Potential Strategies for Income Replacement with HIPS

10 September, 2020 | GraniteShares
Income is one of the most basic, yet important needs of any portfolio—the capacity to generate enduring cashflows to fund expenses. While searching for sustainable yield is never easy, over the last decade income investing become a most unpalatable cocktail — one part frustration and two parts despair (add bitters to taste).  These were the difficulties that pervaded income investing before COVID-19 struck, an economic shock that redoubled the income challenge to near unimaginable levels.

Mental accounting is a truly defining feature of the human condition. Find out how much of your income is mental, and how it may prevent you from acheiving your true income goals.

Topic: Alternative Income

Publication Type: Investment Cases

How Much of Your Income is Mental? Overcoming Human Fallacies in Investing

27 March, 2020 | GraniteShares
Mental accounting is a truly defining feature of the human condition. Find out how much of your income is mental, and how it may prevent you from acheiving your true income goals.

If you thought achieving income yields was difficult, life will only get harder—the Fed that giveth can taketh away. Just as investors were getting accustomed to the taste of at least modestly non-zero rates, expectations have shifted swiftly.

Topic: Alternative Income

Publication Type: Investment Cases

Help! What Happened to My Income?

27 March, 2020 | GraniteShares
If you thought achieving income yields was difficult, life will only get harder—the Fed that giveth can taketh away. Just as investors were getting accustomed to the taste of at least modestly non-zero rates, expectations have shifted swiftly.

While generating sustainable yield for income investing has never been an easy task, the latest shockwaves to reverberate through interest rate markets have only compounded this challenge. The core of this problem for investors, whether retirees, long-term savers, or anyone looking to diversify their returns, is they are probably looking for yield in all the wrong places.

Topic: Income

Publication Type: Investment Cases

Looking for Yield in All the Wrong Places: 7% Income and How to Get it in Today’s Market

27 March, 2020 | GraniteShares
While generating sustainable yield for income investing has never been an easy task, the latest shockwaves to reverberate through interest rate markets have only compounded this challenge. The core of this problem for investors, whether retirees, long-term savers, or anyone looking to diversify their returns, is they are probably looking for yield in all the wrong places.

The speed and magnitude of technological disruption is relevant because current and future technologies will continue to create winners (i.e., the disruptors) and losers (i.e., the disruptees) among all companies across industries faster than the market may realize.

Topic: XOUT

Publication Type: Investment Cases

The Cost of Underestimating Technological Disruption

06 October, 2021 | GraniteShares
The speed and magnitude of technological disruption is relevant because current and future technologies will continue to create winners (i.e., the disruptors) and losers (i.e., the disruptees) among all companies across industries faster than the market may realize.

When no company or industry is immune from disruptive challenge, perhaps never has the number of potential losers been so plentiful, nor the disparity between winners and losers been so vast. Rather than succumb to conventional wisdom, perhaps the only thing more important than what you put IN your portfolio is what you XOUT.

Topic: XOUT

Publication Type: Investment Cases

How Many Losers Are in the S&P 500?

17 August, 2020 | GraniteShares
When no company or industry is immune from disruptive challenge, perhaps never has the number of potential losers been so plentiful, nor the disparity between winners and losers been so vast. Rather than succumb to conventional wisdom, perhaps the only thing more important than what you put IN your portfolio is what you XOUT.

The response to novel coronavirus has emerged as one of the most economically disruptive events in human history. With the physical economy all but tossed asunder, COVID19 has aggressively intensified the drumbeat of digital disruption impacting all industries. A rapid bifurcation in the market is underway, between companies with adaptive ties to the virtual economy and those that are reduced to bailout dependency—no one is immune.

Topic: XOUT

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

An Economy Rebalanced: Q2 Top 10 Market Eliminations by the XOUT Strategy

14 August, 2020 | GraniteShares
The response to novel coronavirus has emerged as one of the most economically disruptive events in human history. With the physical economy all but tossed asunder, COVID19 has aggressively intensified the drumbeat of digital disruption impacting all industries. A rapid bifurcation in the market is underway, between companies with adaptive ties to the virtual economy and those that are reduced to bailout dependency—no one is immune.

The latest XOUT rebalance gives fresh insight into the pulse of disruption, and significantly, the players who are falling behind in the race to innovate effectively. Here we examine the 10 largest companies XOUT eliminates this quarter—the roughly $3 trillion in market cap vulnerable to secular decline. When yesterday’s titans can rapidly become today’s bankruptcies, the XOUT Index continually looks to identify potential market laggards, aiming to leave them out of the portfolio.

Topic: XOUT

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

See Ya Dimon, Hello Fink: Top 10 XOUT’s for Q1 2020

28 March, 2020 | GraniteShares
The latest XOUT rebalance gives fresh insight into the pulse of disruption, and significantly, the players who are falling behind in the race to innovate effectively. Here we examine the 10 largest companies XOUT eliminates this quarter—the roughly $3 trillion in market cap vulnerable to secular decline. When yesterday’s titans can rapidly become today’s bankruptcies, the XOUT Index continually looks to identify potential market laggards, aiming to leave them out of the portfolio.

XOUT’s methodology counters traditional investment strategies. Rather than trying to pick a select few winners, XOUT flips the investment paradigm by seeking to avoid losers that are failing to adapt amid today’s environment of unprecedented technological change.

Topic: Precious Metals , XOUT

Publication Type: Viewpoints

GraniteShares Launches XOUT U.S. Large Cap ETF (XOUT)

27 March, 2020 | GraniteShares
XOUT’s methodology counters traditional investment strategies. Rather than trying to pick a select few winners, XOUT flips the investment paradigm by seeking to avoid losers that are failing to adapt amid today’s environment of unprecedented technological change.

Gold is often though of as a hedge against inflation. With inflation reaching 40-year highs, some analysts may have expected gold to perform well. However, after a strong start of the year, mostly attributed to its role as safe-haven asset at the start of the Ukrainian war, the gold price retreated to its pre-covid 19 level. As of November 08, 2022, the price of gold is down 6.4% year to date (source Bloomberg).

Topic: Gold

Publication Type: Investment Cases

Gold Market Sentiments for the Entire Year

21 November, 2022 | GraniteShares
Gold is often though of as a hedge against inflation. With inflation reaching 40-year highs, some analysts may have expected gold to perform well. However, after a strong start of the year, mostly attributed to its role as safe-haven asset at the start of the Ukrainian war, the gold price retreated to its pre-covid 19 level. As of November 08, 2022, the price of gold is down 6.4% year to date (source Bloomberg).
The current economic tumult recatalyzes the classic, three-fold case for gold, namely asset stability, diversification and vulnerability of the dollar in the new Fed paradigm. This investment case explores the critical dynamics that have propelled gold to new record highs above $2,000/oz, and how the asset's unique status combining characteristics of a commodity and a currency lend gold unique value as the global economy attempts a reset from the COVID-19 tumult.

Topic: Gold

Publication Type: Investment Cases

Investment Case for Gold as The Yellow Metal Charts New Record Highs

03 September, 2020 | GraniteShares
The current economic tumult recatalyzes the classic, three-fold case for gold, namely asset stability, diversification and vulnerability of the dollar in the new Fed paradigm. This investment case explores the critical dynamics that have propelled gold to new record highs above $2,000/oz, and how the asset's unique status combining characteristics of a commodity and a currency lend gold unique value as the global economy attempts a reset from the COVID-19 tumult.
The 60/40 portfolio, a strategy of dividing assets between 60% large cap equities and 40% bonds, has long served as the de facto benchmark for risk adjusted returns. The sizable equity allocation allows for decent upside capture and long-term growth, while the fixed income pool dampens the volatility inherent to stock ownership.

Topic: Gold

Publication Type: Investment Cases

Is Your Portfolio Sharpe Enough? Improving a 60/40 with Gold

02 September, 2020 | GraniteShares
The 60/40 portfolio, a strategy of dividing assets between 60% large cap equities and 40% bonds, has long served as the de facto benchmark for risk adjusted returns. The sizable equity allocation allows for decent upside capture and long-term growth, while the fixed income pool dampens the volatility inherent to stock ownership.
A somewhat choppy week for U.S. stock markets with the S&P 500 Index striving for but not reaching record highs on Wednesday. Despite stronger-than-expected U.S. economic reports (including lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims, strong retail sales and industrial production reports) and a falling number of new Covid-19 cases and deaths, U.S. stock markets struggled to move higher last week.  Concerns surrounding the legality of President Trump’s  executive orders combined with still-stalled congressional coronavirus-related stimulus negotiations and, perhaps, higher-than-expected PPI, CPI and wage inflation numbers may have limited stock market gains.  The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate moved higher all through the week, reacting to corporate and government supply pressures, higher-than-expected inflation numbers and strong U.S. economic reports. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 0.6% to 3,372.85, the Nasdaq Composite index increased 0.1% to 11,019.30, the 10-year U.S. interest rate increased 14 bps to 71 bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.4%.

Topic: Gold , Commodities

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

Commodities and Precious Metals Update (Week ending August 14 , 2020)

17 August, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
A somewhat choppy week for U.S. stock markets with the S&P 500 Index striving for but not reaching record highs on Wednesday. Despite stronger-than-expected U.S. economic reports (including lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims, strong retail sales and industrial production reports) and a falling number of new Covid-19 cases and deaths, U.S. stock markets struggled to move higher last week.  Concerns surrounding the legality of President Trump’s  executive orders combined with still-stalled congressional coronavirus-related stimulus negotiations and, perhaps, higher-than-expected PPI, CPI and wage inflation numbers may have limited stock market gains.  The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate moved higher all through the week, reacting to corporate and government supply pressures, higher-than-expected inflation numbers and strong U.S. economic reports. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 0.6% to 3,372.85, the Nasdaq Composite index increased 0.1% to 11,019.30, the 10-year U.S. interest rate increased 14 bps to 71 bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.4%.
Against a backdrop of better-than-expected economic reports and earning results and indications new Covid-19 cases may be falling, U.S. stock markets all moved higher again last week despite concerns over increased U.S.-China frictions and stalled congressional progess on additional coronavirus relief funds. Better-than-expected factory orders and ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing index numbers combined with lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims and a stronger-than-expected payroll report helped move U.S. equity markets higher. Earning results reported last week were predominantly positive also helping move equity markets higher. Early-in-the-week optimism that congress would reach agreement on additional coronavirus-related relief funds faded as the week ended with no progress, but was slightly ameliorated with the Trump administration announcing the President may take executive action to extend existing programs. Both the U.S. dollar and the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate moved off their lows reached earlier in the week on stronger-than-expected economic reports and signs the number of new Covid-19 cases may be decreasing. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite index each increased 2.5% to 3,351.28 and 11,010.98, respectively. the 10-year U.S. interest rate increased 4 bps to 57 bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) was unchanged.

Topic: Gold , Commodities

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

Commodities and Precious Metals Update (Week ending August 7 , 2020)

10 August, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Against a backdrop of better-than-expected economic reports and earning results and indications new Covid-19 cases may be falling, U.S. stock markets all moved higher again last week despite concerns over increased U.S.-China frictions and stalled congressional progess on additional coronavirus relief funds. Better-than-expected factory orders and ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing index numbers combined with lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims and a stronger-than-expected payroll report helped move U.S. equity markets higher. Earning results reported last week were predominantly positive also helping move equity markets higher. Early-in-the-week optimism that congress would reach agreement on additional coronavirus-related relief funds faded as the week ended with no progress, but was slightly ameliorated with the Trump administration announcing the President may take executive action to extend existing programs. Both the U.S. dollar and the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate moved off their lows reached earlier in the week on stronger-than-expected economic reports and signs the number of new Covid-19 cases may be decreasing. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite index each increased 2.5% to 3,351.28 and 11,010.98, respectively. the 10-year U.S. interest rate increased 4 bps to 57 bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) was unchanged.

Oil prices moved lower last week pressured by global recession concerns and increased Russian production.  Unchanged to slightly higher Monday on expectations of increased demand from China’s reopening, prices moved markedly lower Tuesday on expectations of a strong build in U.S. oil inventories and continued contraction in U.S. economic activity.   Prices rebounded partially Thursday, supported by stronger-than-expected economic data only to see those gains and more erased by greatly increased Russian oil production (as indicated by a significant increase of Baltic seaport tanker loadings).

Topic: Commodities

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

Commoditized Wisdom: Metals & Markets Update (Week Ending January 27, 2023)

30 January, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices moved lower last week pressured by global recession concerns and increased Russian production.  Unchanged to slightly higher Monday on expectations of increased demand from China’s reopening, prices moved markedly lower Tuesday on expectations of a strong build in U.S. oil inventories and continued contraction in U.S. economic activity.   Prices rebounded partially Thursday, supported by stronger-than-expected economic data only to see those gains and more erased by greatly increased Russian oil production (as indicated by a significant increase of Baltic seaport tanker loadings).
Oil prices rose last week with expectations of revived Chinese demand overcoming hawkish Fed comments, another large build in U.S. oil inventories and weak U.S. economic data.   A decline in the U.S. rig count as reported by Baker Hughes and the IEA’s increased oil demand forecast also supported prices.  Natural gas prices, down 5% on the week, suffered from warm weather, moderate demand and increased inventories.

Topic: Commodities

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

Commoditized Wisdom: Metals & Markets Update (Week Ending January 20, 2023)

23 January, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices rose last week with expectations of revived Chinese demand overcoming hawkish Fed comments, another large build in U.S. oil inventories and weak U.S. economic data.   A decline in the U.S. rig count as reported by Baker Hughes and the IEA’s increased oil demand forecast also supported prices.  Natural gas prices, down 5% on the week, suffered from warm weather, moderate demand and increased inventories.
Oil prices sharply increased last week, reversing most of the previous week’s losses.  The primary driving force behind the gain was China’s reopening of its borders.  The reopening along with increased Chinese crude imports increased demand expectations pushing prices higher.   Also buoying prices were the EIA’s forecast of record global petroleum consumption for 202, growing expectations of easing Fed monetary policy following Thursday’s slightly better-than-expected U.S. CPI release and a weaker U.S. dollar. 

Topic: Commodities

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

Commoditized Wisdom: Metals & Markets Update (Week Ending January 13, 2023)

17 January, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices sharply increased last week, reversing most of the previous week’s losses.  The primary driving force behind the gain was China’s reopening of its borders.  The reopening along with increased Chinese crude imports increased demand expectations pushing prices higher.   Also buoying prices were the EIA’s forecast of record global petroleum consumption for 202, growing expectations of easing Fed monetary policy following Thursday’s slightly better-than-expected U.S. CPI release and a weaker U.S. dollar. 
Gold prices rose last week, increasing every day but Thursday as expectations increased the Fed may need to lower rates sooner than expected.  Contracting U.S. manufacturing and services activity as shown by Manufacturing PMI released Tuesday and the ISM Manufacturing Index released Wednesday supported expectations of a more benign Fed moving forward.  While Thursday’s lower-than-expected initial jobless claims number weakened those expectations (pushing gold prices lower), Friday’s job report showing weakening wage pressures, revived those expectations propelling gold prices almost 2% higher.   Silver prices, up over 2.5% Friday, ended the week down about ½ percent.  Platinum prices performed similarly to gold prices.

Topic: Commodities

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

Commoditized Wisdom: Metals & Markets Update (Week Ending January 6, 2023)

09 January, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Gold prices rose last week, increasing every day but Thursday as expectations increased the Fed may need to lower rates sooner than expected.  Contracting U.S. manufacturing and services activity as shown by Manufacturing PMI released Tuesday and the ISM Manufacturing Index released Wednesday supported expectations of a more benign Fed moving forward.  While Thursday’s lower-than-expected initial jobless claims number weakened those expectations (pushing gold prices lower), Friday’s job report showing weakening wage pressures, revived those expectations propelling gold prices almost 2% higher.   Silver prices, up over 2.5% Friday, ended the week down about ½ percent.  Platinum prices performed similarly to gold prices.
Precious metal prices moved higher last week buoyed by a weaker U.S. dollar and increased demand expectations resulting from China’s easing Covid curbs.   Silver and platinum prices moved higher with gold prices but with larger gains on the week.    For the year spot gold prices were down marginally, falling 0.2%. spot silver prices increased 0.8% and spot platinum prices climbed 11.1%.

Topic: Commodities

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

Commoditized Wisdom: Metals & Markets Update (Week Ending December 30, 2022)

03 January, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Precious metal prices moved higher last week buoyed by a weaker U.S. dollar and increased demand expectations resulting from China’s easing Covid curbs.   Silver and platinum prices moved higher with gold prices but with larger gains on the week.    For the year spot gold prices were down marginally, falling 0.2%. spot silver prices increased 0.8% and spot platinum prices climbed 11.1%.

The unfortunate reality is that a deep chasm stands between investor income requirements and what conventional strategies can now yield. Alternative Income may help bridge the divide.

Topic: Income

Publication Type: Investment Cases

The Income Blueprint: Potential Strategy for Income Replacement with HIPS

13 October, 2020 | GraniteShares
The unfortunate reality is that a deep chasm stands between investor income requirements and what conventional strategies can now yield. Alternative Income may help bridge the divide.
Income is one of the most basic, yet important needs of any portfolio—the capacity to generate enduring cashflows to fund expenses. While searching for sustainable yield is never easy, over the last decade income investing become a most unpalatable cocktail — one part frustration and two parts despair (add bitters to taste).  These were the difficulties that pervaded income investing before COVID-19 struck, an economic shock that redoubled the income challenge to near unimaginable levels.

Topic: Income

Publication Type: Investment Cases

The Income Blueprint: Potential Strategies for Income Replacement with HIPS

10 September, 2020 | GraniteShares
Income is one of the most basic, yet important needs of any portfolio—the capacity to generate enduring cashflows to fund expenses. While searching for sustainable yield is never easy, over the last decade income investing become a most unpalatable cocktail — one part frustration and two parts despair (add bitters to taste).  These were the difficulties that pervaded income investing before COVID-19 struck, an economic shock that redoubled the income challenge to near unimaginable levels.
Mental accounting is a truly defining feature of the human condition. Find out how much of your income is mental, and how it may prevent you from acheiving your true income goals.

Topic: Alternative Income

Publication Type: Investment Cases

How Much of Your Income is Mental? Overcoming Human Fallacies in Investing

27 March, 2020 | GraniteShares
Mental accounting is a truly defining feature of the human condition. Find out how much of your income is mental, and how it may prevent you from acheiving your true income goals.
If you thought achieving income yields was difficult, life will only get harder—the Fed that giveth can taketh away. Just as investors were getting accustomed to the taste of at least modestly non-zero rates, expectations have shifted swiftly.

Topic: Alternative Income

Publication Type: Investment Cases

Help! What Happened to My Income?

27 March, 2020 | GraniteShares
If you thought achieving income yields was difficult, life will only get harder—the Fed that giveth can taketh away. Just as investors were getting accustomed to the taste of at least modestly non-zero rates, expectations have shifted swiftly.
While generating sustainable yield for income investing has never been an easy task, the latest shockwaves to reverberate through interest rate markets have only compounded this challenge. The core of this problem for investors, whether retirees, long-term savers, or anyone looking to diversify their returns, is they are probably looking for yield in all the wrong places.

Topic: Income

Publication Type: Investment Cases

Looking for Yield in All the Wrong Places: 7% Income and How to Get it in Today’s Market

27 March, 2020 | GraniteShares
While generating sustainable yield for income investing has never been an easy task, the latest shockwaves to reverberate through interest rate markets have only compounded this challenge. The core of this problem for investors, whether retirees, long-term savers, or anyone looking to diversify their returns, is they are probably looking for yield in all the wrong places.

The speed and magnitude of technological disruption is relevant because current and future technologies will continue to create winners (i.e., the disruptors) and losers (i.e., the disruptees) among all companies across industries faster than the market may realize.

Topic: XOUT

Publication Type: Investment Cases

The Cost of Underestimating Technological Disruption

06 October, 2021 | GraniteShares
The speed and magnitude of technological disruption is relevant because current and future technologies will continue to create winners (i.e., the disruptors) and losers (i.e., the disruptees) among all companies across industries faster than the market may realize.
When no company or industry is immune from disruptive challenge, perhaps never has the number of potential losers been so plentiful, nor the disparity between winners and losers been so vast. Rather than succumb to conventional wisdom, perhaps the only thing more important than what you put IN your portfolio is what you XOUT.

Topic: XOUT

Publication Type: Investment Cases

How Many Losers Are in the S&P 500?

17 August, 2020 | GraniteShares
When no company or industry is immune from disruptive challenge, perhaps never has the number of potential losers been so plentiful, nor the disparity between winners and losers been so vast. Rather than succumb to conventional wisdom, perhaps the only thing more important than what you put IN your portfolio is what you XOUT.
The response to novel coronavirus has emerged as one of the most economically disruptive events in human history. With the physical economy all but tossed asunder, COVID19 has aggressively intensified the drumbeat of digital disruption impacting all industries. A rapid bifurcation in the market is underway, between companies with adaptive ties to the virtual economy and those that are reduced to bailout dependency—no one is immune.

Topic: XOUT

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

An Economy Rebalanced: Q2 Top 10 Market Eliminations by the XOUT Strategy

14 August, 2020 | GraniteShares
The response to novel coronavirus has emerged as one of the most economically disruptive events in human history. With the physical economy all but tossed asunder, COVID19 has aggressively intensified the drumbeat of digital disruption impacting all industries. A rapid bifurcation in the market is underway, between companies with adaptive ties to the virtual economy and those that are reduced to bailout dependency—no one is immune.
The latest XOUT rebalance gives fresh insight into the pulse of disruption, and significantly, the players who are falling behind in the race to innovate effectively. Here we examine the 10 largest companies XOUT eliminates this quarter—the roughly $3 trillion in market cap vulnerable to secular decline. When yesterday’s titans can rapidly become today’s bankruptcies, the XOUT Index continually looks to identify potential market laggards, aiming to leave them out of the portfolio.

Topic: XOUT

Publication Type: Market Commentaries

See Ya Dimon, Hello Fink: Top 10 XOUT’s for Q1 2020

28 March, 2020 | GraniteShares
The latest XOUT rebalance gives fresh insight into the pulse of disruption, and significantly, the players who are falling behind in the race to innovate effectively. Here we examine the 10 largest companies XOUT eliminates this quarter—the roughly $3 trillion in market cap vulnerable to secular decline. When yesterday’s titans can rapidly become today’s bankruptcies, the XOUT Index continually looks to identify potential market laggards, aiming to leave them out of the portfolio.
XOUT’s methodology counters traditional investment strategies. Rather than trying to pick a select few winners, XOUT flips the investment paradigm by seeking to avoid losers that are failing to adapt amid today’s environment of unprecedented technological change.

Topic: Precious Metals , XOUT

Publication Type: Viewpoints

GraniteShares Launches XOUT U.S. Large Cap ETF (XOUT)

27 March, 2020 | GraniteShares
XOUT’s methodology counters traditional investment strategies. Rather than trying to pick a select few winners, XOUT flips the investment paradigm by seeking to avoid losers that are failing to adapt amid today’s environment of unprecedented technological change.
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