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Oil prices ended the week higher, rising every day but one during the week. Rising gasoline prices (in front of Memorial Day Weekend) and falling oil, gasoline and distillate inventories helped move prices higher throughout the week. Comments from Saudi Arabia’s energy minister warning short sellers of potential “pain” and Friday’s report of progress in debt ceiling talks also contributed to gains. Prices fell Thursday (the only down day) following comments from Russian officials expressing doubts regarding additional production cutbacks (seemingly contradicting comments from Saudi’s energy minister). Natural gas prices reversed the previous week’s sharp gains, falling almost 11% amidst strong production combined with weak weather-related demand.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Metals & Markets Update (Week Ending May 26, 2023)
30 May, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices ended the week higher, rising every day but one during the week. Rising gasoline prices (in front of Memorial Day Weekend) and falling oil, gasoline and distillate inventories helped move prices higher throughout the week. Comments from Saudi Arabia’s energy minister warning short sellers of potential “pain” and Friday’s report of progress in debt ceiling talks also contributed to gains. Prices fell Thursday (the only down day) following comments from Russian officials expressing doubts regarding additional production cutbacks (seemingly contradicting comments from Saudi’s energy minister). Natural gas prices reversed the previous week’s sharp gains, falling almost 11% amidst strong production combined with weak weather-related demand.
Gold prices, too, mainly moved with debt ceiling resolution expectations. Higher Monday on debt ceiling concerns and a weaker U.S. dollar, gold prices fell Tuesday through Thursday on news of progress in debt ceiling talks but also on hawkish Fed comments and decent economic news. Gold prices shot higher Friday (up 1%) following news the debt ceiling talks had been paused. Gold and silver prices ended lower on the week while spot platinum prices closed the week about 1% higher.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Metals & Markets Update (Week Ending May 19, 2023)
22 May, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Gold prices, too, mainly moved with debt ceiling resolution expectations. Higher Monday on debt ceiling concerns and a weaker U.S. dollar, gold prices fell Tuesday through Thursday on news of progress in debt ceiling talks but also on hawkish Fed comments and decent economic news. Gold prices shot higher Friday (up 1%) following news the debt ceiling talks had been paused. Gold and silver prices ended lower on the week while spot platinum prices closed the week about 1% higher.
Spot gold prices also moved higher early in the week, climbing just under 1% through Tuesday on U.S. banking and recession concerns. Tighter credit conditions, as reported by the Fed, increased expectations the Fed would be more likely to ease this year also supported prices. Despite Wednesday’s slightly better-than-expected CPI release, expectations of the Fed easing later this year fell with sentiment influenced by the stubbornly high level of inflation. Friday’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report showing rising inflation expectations added to this sentiment, driving Treasury rates and the dollar higher while pushing gold prices lower.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Metals & Markets Update (Week Ending May 12, 2023)
15 May, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Spot gold prices also moved higher early in the week, climbing just under 1% through Tuesday on U.S. banking and recession concerns. Tighter credit conditions, as reported by the Fed, increased expectations the Fed would be more likely to ease this year also supported prices. Despite Wednesday’s slightly better-than-expected CPI release, expectations of the Fed easing later this year fell with sentiment influenced by the stubbornly high level of inflation. Friday’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report showing rising inflation expectations added to this sentiment, driving Treasury rates and the dollar higher while pushing gold prices lower.
Spot gold prices moved oppositely to stock prices last week. Rallying on banking system, U.S. default and recession concerns, gold prices rose over 3% through Thursday. About half those gains were removed Friday following a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report and sharply lessened banking system concerns. For the week, spot gold prices rose just under 1.5% while spot silver prices gained about 2.5%. Platinum and palladium prices fell about 1%,
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Metals & Markets Update (Week Ending May 5, 2023)
08 May, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Spot gold prices moved oppositely to stock prices last week. Rallying on banking system, U.S. default and recession concerns, gold prices rose over 3% through Thursday. About half those gains were removed Friday following a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report and sharply lessened banking system concerns. For the week, spot gold prices rose just under 1.5% while spot silver prices gained about 2.5%. Platinum and palladium prices fell about 1%,
Copper prices end the week lower, falling through Tuesday on weak Chinese demand, increased supplies and a stronger U.S. dollar. Prices then partially rebounded the remainder of the weak supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, Chinese stimulus plans and, for the most part, an as-expected PCE Price Index release. Other base metal prices followed copper prices lower.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Metals & Markets Update (Week Ending April 28, 2023)
28 April, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Copper prices end the week lower, falling through Tuesday on weak Chinese demand, increased supplies and a stronger U.S. dollar. Prices then partially rebounded the remainder of the weak supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, Chinese stimulus plans and, for the most part, an as-expected PCE Price Index release. Other base metal prices followed copper prices lower.
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Gold is often though of as a hedge against inflation. With inflation reaching 40-year highs, some analysts may have expected gold to perform well. However, after a strong start of the year, mostly attributed to its role as safe-haven asset at the start of the Ukrainian war, the gold price retreated to its pre-covid 19 level. As of November 08, 2022, the price of gold is down 6.4% year to date (source Bloomberg).
Topic: Gold
Publication Type: Investment Cases
Gold Market Sentiments for the Entire Year
21 November, 2022 | GraniteShares
Gold is often though of as a hedge against inflation. With inflation reaching 40-year highs, some analysts may have expected gold to perform well. However, after a strong start of the year, mostly attributed to its role as safe-haven asset at the start of the Ukrainian war, the gold price retreated to its pre-covid 19 level. As of November 08, 2022, the price of gold is down 6.4% year to date (source Bloomberg).
The current economic tumult recatalyzes the classic, three-fold case for gold, namely asset stability, diversification and vulnerability of the dollar in the new Fed paradigm. This investment case explores the critical dynamics that have propelled gold to new record highs above $2,000/oz, and how the asset's unique status combining characteristics of a commodity and a currency lend gold unique value as the global economy attempts a reset from the COVID-19 tumult.
Topic: Gold
Publication Type: Investment Cases
Investment Case for Gold as The Yellow Metal Charts New Record Highs
03 September, 2020 | GraniteShares
The current economic tumult recatalyzes the classic, three-fold case for gold, namely asset stability, diversification and vulnerability of the dollar in the new Fed paradigm. This investment case explores the critical dynamics that have propelled gold to new record highs above $2,000/oz, and how the asset's unique status combining characteristics of a commodity and a currency lend gold unique value as the global economy attempts a reset from the COVID-19 tumult.
The 60/40 portfolio, a strategy of dividing assets between 60% large cap equities and 40% bonds, has long served as the de facto benchmark for risk adjusted returns. The sizable equity allocation allows for decent upside capture and long-term growth, while the fixed income pool dampens the volatility inherent to stock ownership.
Topic: Gold
Publication Type: Investment Cases
Is Your Portfolio Sharpe Enough? Improving a 60/40 with Gold
02 September, 2020 | GraniteShares
The 60/40 portfolio, a strategy of dividing assets between 60% large cap equities and 40% bonds, has long served as the de facto benchmark for risk adjusted returns. The sizable equity allocation allows for decent upside capture and long-term growth, while the fixed income pool dampens the volatility inherent to stock ownership.
A somewhat choppy week for U.S. stock markets with the S&P 500 Index striving for but not reaching record highs on Wednesday. Despite stronger-than-expected U.S. economic reports (including lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims, strong retail sales and industrial production reports) and a falling number of new Covid-19 cases and deaths, U.S. stock markets struggled to move higher last week. Concerns surrounding the legality of President Trump’s executive orders combined with still-stalled congressional coronavirus-related stimulus negotiations and, perhaps, higher-than-expected PPI, CPI and wage inflation numbers may have limited stock market gains. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate moved higher all through the week, reacting to corporate and government supply pressures, higher-than-expected inflation numbers and strong U.S. economic reports. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 0.6% to 3,372.85, the Nasdaq Composite index increased 0.1% to 11,019.30, the 10-year U.S. interest rate increased 14 bps to 71 bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.4%.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities and Precious Metals Update (Week ending August 14 , 2020)
17 August, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
A somewhat choppy week for U.S. stock markets with the S&P 500 Index striving for but not reaching record highs on Wednesday. Despite stronger-than-expected U.S. economic reports (including lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims, strong retail sales and industrial production reports) and a falling number of new Covid-19 cases and deaths, U.S. stock markets struggled to move higher last week. Concerns surrounding the legality of President Trump’s executive orders combined with still-stalled congressional coronavirus-related stimulus negotiations and, perhaps, higher-than-expected PPI, CPI and wage inflation numbers may have limited stock market gains. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate moved higher all through the week, reacting to corporate and government supply pressures, higher-than-expected inflation numbers and strong U.S. economic reports. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 0.6% to 3,372.85, the Nasdaq Composite index increased 0.1% to 11,019.30, the 10-year U.S. interest rate increased 14 bps to 71 bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.4%.
Against a backdrop of better-than-expected economic reports and earning results and indications new Covid-19 cases may be falling, U.S. stock markets all moved higher again last week despite concerns over increased U.S.-China frictions and stalled congressional progess on additional coronavirus relief funds. Better-than-expected factory orders and ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing index numbers combined with lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims and a stronger-than-expected payroll report helped move U.S. equity markets higher. Earning results reported last week were predominantly positive also helping move equity markets higher. Early-in-the-week optimism that congress would reach agreement on additional coronavirus-related relief funds faded as the week ended with no progress, but was slightly ameliorated with the Trump administration announcing the President may take executive action to extend existing programs. Both the U.S. dollar and the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate moved off their lows reached earlier in the week on stronger-than-expected economic reports and signs the number of new Covid-19 cases may be decreasing. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite index each increased 2.5% to 3,351.28 and 11,010.98, respectively. the 10-year U.S. interest rate increased 4 bps to 57 bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) was unchanged.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities and Precious Metals Update (Week ending August 7 , 2020)
10 August, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Against a backdrop of better-than-expected economic reports and earning results and indications new Covid-19 cases may be falling, U.S. stock markets all moved higher again last week despite concerns over increased U.S.-China frictions and stalled congressional progess on additional coronavirus relief funds. Better-than-expected factory orders and ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing index numbers combined with lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims and a stronger-than-expected payroll report helped move U.S. equity markets higher. Earning results reported last week were predominantly positive also helping move equity markets higher. Early-in-the-week optimism that congress would reach agreement on additional coronavirus-related relief funds faded as the week ended with no progress, but was slightly ameliorated with the Trump administration announcing the President may take executive action to extend existing programs. Both the U.S. dollar and the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate moved off their lows reached earlier in the week on stronger-than-expected economic reports and signs the number of new Covid-19 cases may be decreasing. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite index each increased 2.5% to 3,351.28 and 11,010.98, respectively. the 10-year U.S. interest rate increased 4 bps to 57 bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) was unchanged.
Oil prices ended the week higher, rising every day but one during the week. Rising gasoline prices (in front of Memorial Day Weekend) and falling oil, gasoline and distillate inventories helped move prices higher throughout the week. Comments from Saudi Arabia’s energy minister warning short sellers of potential “pain” and Friday’s report of progress in debt ceiling talks also contributed to gains. Prices fell Thursday (the only down day) following comments from Russian officials expressing doubts regarding additional production cutbacks (seemingly contradicting comments from Saudi’s energy minister). Natural gas prices reversed the previous week’s sharp gains, falling almost 11% amidst strong production combined with weak weather-related demand.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Metals & Markets Update (Week Ending May 26, 2023)
30 May, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices ended the week higher, rising every day but one during the week. Rising gasoline prices (in front of Memorial Day Weekend) and falling oil, gasoline and distillate inventories helped move prices higher throughout the week. Comments from Saudi Arabia’s energy minister warning short sellers of potential “pain” and Friday’s report of progress in debt ceiling talks also contributed to gains. Prices fell Thursday (the only down day) following comments from Russian officials expressing doubts regarding additional production cutbacks (seemingly contradicting comments from Saudi’s energy minister). Natural gas prices reversed the previous week’s sharp gains, falling almost 11% amidst strong production combined with weak weather-related demand.
Gold prices, too, mainly moved with debt ceiling resolution expectations. Higher Monday on debt ceiling concerns and a weaker U.S. dollar, gold prices fell Tuesday through Thursday on news of progress in debt ceiling talks but also on hawkish Fed comments and decent economic news. Gold prices shot higher Friday (up 1%) following news the debt ceiling talks had been paused. Gold and silver prices ended lower on the week while spot platinum prices closed the week about 1% higher.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Metals & Markets Update (Week Ending May 19, 2023)
22 May, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Gold prices, too, mainly moved with debt ceiling resolution expectations. Higher Monday on debt ceiling concerns and a weaker U.S. dollar, gold prices fell Tuesday through Thursday on news of progress in debt ceiling talks but also on hawkish Fed comments and decent economic news. Gold prices shot higher Friday (up 1%) following news the debt ceiling talks had been paused. Gold and silver prices ended lower on the week while spot platinum prices closed the week about 1% higher.
Spot gold prices also moved higher early in the week, climbing just under 1% through Tuesday on U.S. banking and recession concerns. Tighter credit conditions, as reported by the Fed, increased expectations the Fed would be more likely to ease this year also supported prices. Despite Wednesday’s slightly better-than-expected CPI release, expectations of the Fed easing later this year fell with sentiment influenced by the stubbornly high level of inflation. Friday’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report showing rising inflation expectations added to this sentiment, driving Treasury rates and the dollar higher while pushing gold prices lower.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Metals & Markets Update (Week Ending May 12, 2023)
15 May, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Spot gold prices also moved higher early in the week, climbing just under 1% through Tuesday on U.S. banking and recession concerns. Tighter credit conditions, as reported by the Fed, increased expectations the Fed would be more likely to ease this year also supported prices. Despite Wednesday’s slightly better-than-expected CPI release, expectations of the Fed easing later this year fell with sentiment influenced by the stubbornly high level of inflation. Friday’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report showing rising inflation expectations added to this sentiment, driving Treasury rates and the dollar higher while pushing gold prices lower.
Spot gold prices moved oppositely to stock prices last week. Rallying on banking system, U.S. default and recession concerns, gold prices rose over 3% through Thursday. About half those gains were removed Friday following a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report and sharply lessened banking system concerns. For the week, spot gold prices rose just under 1.5% while spot silver prices gained about 2.5%. Platinum and palladium prices fell about 1%,
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Metals & Markets Update (Week Ending May 5, 2023)
08 May, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Spot gold prices moved oppositely to stock prices last week. Rallying on banking system, U.S. default and recession concerns, gold prices rose over 3% through Thursday. About half those gains were removed Friday following a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report and sharply lessened banking system concerns. For the week, spot gold prices rose just under 1.5% while spot silver prices gained about 2.5%. Platinum and palladium prices fell about 1%,
Copper prices end the week lower, falling through Tuesday on weak Chinese demand, increased supplies and a stronger U.S. dollar. Prices then partially rebounded the remainder of the weak supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, Chinese stimulus plans and, for the most part, an as-expected PCE Price Index release. Other base metal prices followed copper prices lower.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Metals & Markets Update (Week Ending April 28, 2023)
28 April, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Copper prices end the week lower, falling through Tuesday on weak Chinese demand, increased supplies and a stronger U.S. dollar. Prices then partially rebounded the remainder of the weak supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, Chinese stimulus plans and, for the most part, an as-expected PCE Price Index release. Other base metal prices followed copper prices lower.
The unfortunate reality is that a deep chasm stands between investor income requirements and what conventional strategies can now yield. Alternative Income may help bridge the divide.
Topic: Income
Publication Type: Investment Cases
The Income Blueprint: Potential Strategy for Income Replacement with HIPS
13 October, 2020 | GraniteShares
The unfortunate reality is that a deep chasm stands between investor income requirements and what conventional strategies can now yield. Alternative Income may help bridge the divide.
Income is one of the most basic, yet important needs of any portfolio—the capacity to generate enduring cashflows to fund expenses. While searching for sustainable yield is never easy, over the last decade income investing become a most unpalatable cocktail — one part frustration and two parts despair (add bitters to taste). These were the difficulties that pervaded income investing before COVID-19 struck, an economic shock that redoubled the income challenge to near unimaginable levels.
Topic: Income
Publication Type: Investment Cases
The Income Blueprint: Potential Strategies for Income Replacement with HIPS
10 September, 2020 | GraniteShares
Income is one of the most basic, yet important needs of any portfolio—the capacity to generate enduring cashflows to fund expenses. While searching for sustainable yield is never easy, over the last decade income investing become a most unpalatable cocktail — one part frustration and two parts despair (add bitters to taste). These were the difficulties that pervaded income investing before COVID-19 struck, an economic shock that redoubled the income challenge to near unimaginable levels.
Mental accounting is a truly defining feature of the human condition. Find out how much of your income is mental, and how it may prevent you from acheiving your true income goals.
Topic: Alternative Income
Publication Type: Investment Cases
How Much of Your Income is Mental? Overcoming Human Fallacies in Investing
27 March, 2020 | GraniteShares
Mental accounting is a truly defining feature of the human condition. Find out how much of your income is mental, and how it may prevent you from acheiving your true income goals.
If you thought achieving income yields was difficult, life will only get harder—the Fed that giveth can taketh away. Just as investors were getting accustomed to the taste of at least modestly non-zero rates, expectations have shifted swiftly.
Topic: Alternative Income
Publication Type: Investment Cases
Help! What Happened to My Income?
27 March, 2020 | GraniteShares
If you thought achieving income yields was difficult, life will only get harder—the Fed that giveth can taketh away. Just as investors were getting accustomed to the taste of at least modestly non-zero rates, expectations have shifted swiftly.
While generating sustainable yield for income investing has never been an easy task, the latest shockwaves to reverberate through interest rate markets have only compounded this challenge. The core of this problem for investors, whether retirees, long-term savers, or anyone looking to diversify their returns, is they are probably looking for yield in all the wrong places.
Topic: Income
Publication Type: Investment Cases
Looking for Yield in All the Wrong Places: 7% Income and How to Get it in Today’s Market
27 March, 2020 | GraniteShares
While generating sustainable yield for income investing has never been an easy task, the latest shockwaves to reverberate through interest rate markets have only compounded this challenge. The core of this problem for investors, whether retirees, long-term savers, or anyone looking to diversify their returns, is they are probably looking for yield in all the wrong places.
The speed and magnitude of technological disruption is relevant because current and future technologies will continue to create winners (i.e., the disruptors) and losers (i.e., the disruptees) among all companies across industries faster than the market may realize.
Topic: XOUT
Publication Type: Investment Cases
The Cost of Underestimating Technological Disruption
06 October, 2021 | GraniteShares
The speed and magnitude of technological disruption is relevant because current and future technologies will continue to create winners (i.e., the disruptors) and losers (i.e., the disruptees) among all companies across industries faster than the market may realize.
When no company or industry is immune from disruptive challenge, perhaps never has the number of potential losers been so plentiful, nor the disparity between winners and losers been so vast. Rather than succumb to conventional wisdom, perhaps the only thing more important than what you put IN your portfolio is what you XOUT.
Topic: XOUT
Publication Type: Investment Cases
How Many Losers Are in the S&P 500?
17 August, 2020 | GraniteShares
When no company or industry is immune from disruptive challenge, perhaps never has the number of potential losers been so plentiful, nor the disparity between winners and losers been so vast. Rather than succumb to conventional wisdom, perhaps the only thing more important than what you put IN your portfolio is what you XOUT.
The response to novel coronavirus has emerged as one of the most economically disruptive events in human history. With the physical economy all but tossed asunder, COVID19 has aggressively intensified the drumbeat of digital disruption impacting all industries. A rapid bifurcation in the market is underway, between companies with adaptive ties to the virtual economy and those that are reduced to bailout dependency—no one is immune.
Topic: XOUT
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
An Economy Rebalanced: Q2 Top 10 Market Eliminations by the XOUT Strategy
14 August, 2020 | GraniteShares
The response to novel coronavirus has emerged as one of the most economically disruptive events in human history. With the physical economy all but tossed asunder, COVID19 has aggressively intensified the drumbeat of digital disruption impacting all industries. A rapid bifurcation in the market is underway, between companies with adaptive ties to the virtual economy and those that are reduced to bailout dependency—no one is immune.
The latest XOUT rebalance gives fresh insight into the pulse of disruption, and significantly, the players who are falling behind in the race to innovate effectively. Here we examine the 10 largest companies XOUT eliminates this quarter—the roughly $3 trillion in market cap vulnerable to secular decline. When yesterday’s titans can rapidly become today’s bankruptcies, the XOUT Index continually looks to identify potential market laggards, aiming to leave them out of the portfolio.
Topic: XOUT
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
See Ya Dimon, Hello Fink: Top 10 XOUT’s for Q1 2020
28 March, 2020 | GraniteShares
The latest XOUT rebalance gives fresh insight into the pulse of disruption, and significantly, the players who are falling behind in the race to innovate effectively. Here we examine the 10 largest companies XOUT eliminates this quarter—the roughly $3 trillion in market cap vulnerable to secular decline. When yesterday’s titans can rapidly become today’s bankruptcies, the XOUT Index continually looks to identify potential market laggards, aiming to leave them out of the portfolio.
XOUT’s methodology counters traditional investment strategies. Rather than trying to pick a select few winners, XOUT flips the investment paradigm by seeking to avoid losers that are failing to adapt amid today’s environment of unprecedented technological change.
Topic: Precious Metals , XOUT
Publication Type: Viewpoints
GraniteShares Launches XOUT U.S. Large Cap ETF (XOUT)
27 March, 2020 | GraniteShares
XOUT’s methodology counters traditional investment strategies. Rather than trying to pick a select few winners, XOUT flips the investment paradigm by seeking to avoid losers that are failing to adapt amid today’s environment of unprecedented technological change.
Oil prices ended the week higher, rising every day but one during the week. Rising gasoline prices (in front of Memorial Day Weekend) and falling oil, gasoline and distillate inventories helped move prices higher throughout the week. Comments from Saudi Arabia’s energy minister warning short sellers of potential “pain” and Friday’s report of progress in debt ceiling talks also contributed to gains. Prices fell Thursday (the only down day) following comments from Russian officials expressing doubts regarding additional production cutbacks (seemingly contradicting comments from Saudi’s energy minister). Natural gas prices reversed the previous week’s sharp gains, falling almost 11% amidst strong production combined with weak weather-related demand.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Metals & Markets Update (Week Ending May 26, 2023)
30 May, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices ended the week higher, rising every day but one during the week. Rising gasoline prices (in front of Memorial Day Weekend) and falling oil, gasoline and distillate inventories helped move prices higher throughout the week. Comments from Saudi Arabia’s energy minister warning short sellers of potential “pain” and Friday’s report of progress in debt ceiling talks also contributed to gains. Prices fell Thursday (the only down day) following comments from Russian officials expressing doubts regarding additional production cutbacks (seemingly contradicting comments from Saudi’s energy minister). Natural gas prices reversed the previous week’s sharp gains, falling almost 11% amidst strong production combined with weak weather-related demand.
Gold prices, too, mainly moved with debt ceiling resolution expectations. Higher Monday on debt ceiling concerns and a weaker U.S. dollar, gold prices fell Tuesday through Thursday on news of progress in debt ceiling talks but also on hawkish Fed comments and decent economic news. Gold prices shot higher Friday (up 1%) following news the debt ceiling talks had been paused. Gold and silver prices ended lower on the week while spot platinum prices closed the week about 1% higher.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Metals & Markets Update (Week Ending May 19, 2023)
22 May, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Gold prices, too, mainly moved with debt ceiling resolution expectations. Higher Monday on debt ceiling concerns and a weaker U.S. dollar, gold prices fell Tuesday through Thursday on news of progress in debt ceiling talks but also on hawkish Fed comments and decent economic news. Gold prices shot higher Friday (up 1%) following news the debt ceiling talks had been paused. Gold and silver prices ended lower on the week while spot platinum prices closed the week about 1% higher.
Spot gold prices also moved higher early in the week, climbing just under 1% through Tuesday on U.S. banking and recession concerns. Tighter credit conditions, as reported by the Fed, increased expectations the Fed would be more likely to ease this year also supported prices. Despite Wednesday’s slightly better-than-expected CPI release, expectations of the Fed easing later this year fell with sentiment influenced by the stubbornly high level of inflation. Friday’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report showing rising inflation expectations added to this sentiment, driving Treasury rates and the dollar higher while pushing gold prices lower.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Metals & Markets Update (Week Ending May 12, 2023)
15 May, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Spot gold prices also moved higher early in the week, climbing just under 1% through Tuesday on U.S. banking and recession concerns. Tighter credit conditions, as reported by the Fed, increased expectations the Fed would be more likely to ease this year also supported prices. Despite Wednesday’s slightly better-than-expected CPI release, expectations of the Fed easing later this year fell with sentiment influenced by the stubbornly high level of inflation. Friday’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report showing rising inflation expectations added to this sentiment, driving Treasury rates and the dollar higher while pushing gold prices lower.
Spot gold prices moved oppositely to stock prices last week. Rallying on banking system, U.S. default and recession concerns, gold prices rose over 3% through Thursday. About half those gains were removed Friday following a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report and sharply lessened banking system concerns. For the week, spot gold prices rose just under 1.5% while spot silver prices gained about 2.5%. Platinum and palladium prices fell about 1%,
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Metals & Markets Update (Week Ending May 5, 2023)
08 May, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Spot gold prices moved oppositely to stock prices last week. Rallying on banking system, U.S. default and recession concerns, gold prices rose over 3% through Thursday. About half those gains were removed Friday following a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report and sharply lessened banking system concerns. For the week, spot gold prices rose just under 1.5% while spot silver prices gained about 2.5%. Platinum and palladium prices fell about 1%,
Copper prices end the week lower, falling through Tuesday on weak Chinese demand, increased supplies and a stronger U.S. dollar. Prices then partially rebounded the remainder of the weak supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, Chinese stimulus plans and, for the most part, an as-expected PCE Price Index release. Other base metal prices followed copper prices lower.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Metals & Markets Update (Week Ending April 28, 2023)
28 April, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Copper prices end the week lower, falling through Tuesday on weak Chinese demand, increased supplies and a stronger U.S. dollar. Prices then partially rebounded the remainder of the weak supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, Chinese stimulus plans and, for the most part, an as-expected PCE Price Index release. Other base metal prices followed copper prices lower.
Gold is often though of as a hedge against inflation. With inflation reaching 40-year highs, some analysts may have expected gold to perform well. However, after a strong start of the year, mostly attributed to its role as safe-haven asset at the start of the Ukrainian war, the gold price retreated to its pre-covid 19 level. As of November 08, 2022, the price of gold is down 6.4% year to date (source Bloomberg).
Topic: Gold
Publication Type: Investment Cases
Gold Market Sentiments for the Entire Year
21 November, 2022 | GraniteShares
Gold is often though of as a hedge against inflation. With inflation reaching 40-year highs, some analysts may have expected gold to perform well. However, after a strong start of the year, mostly attributed to its role as safe-haven asset at the start of the Ukrainian war, the gold price retreated to its pre-covid 19 level. As of November 08, 2022, the price of gold is down 6.4% year to date (source Bloomberg).
The current economic tumult recatalyzes the classic, three-fold case for gold, namely asset stability, diversification and vulnerability of the dollar in the new Fed paradigm. This investment case explores the critical dynamics that have propelled gold to new record highs above $2,000/oz, and how the asset's unique status combining characteristics of a commodity and a currency lend gold unique value as the global economy attempts a reset from the COVID-19 tumult.
Topic: Gold
Publication Type: Investment Cases
Investment Case for Gold as The Yellow Metal Charts New Record Highs
03 September, 2020 | GraniteShares
The current economic tumult recatalyzes the classic, three-fold case for gold, namely asset stability, diversification and vulnerability of the dollar in the new Fed paradigm. This investment case explores the critical dynamics that have propelled gold to new record highs above $2,000/oz, and how the asset's unique status combining characteristics of a commodity and a currency lend gold unique value as the global economy attempts a reset from the COVID-19 tumult.
The 60/40 portfolio, a strategy of dividing assets between 60% large cap equities and 40% bonds, has long served as the de facto benchmark for risk adjusted returns. The sizable equity allocation allows for decent upside capture and long-term growth, while the fixed income pool dampens the volatility inherent to stock ownership.
Topic: Gold
Publication Type: Investment Cases
Is Your Portfolio Sharpe Enough? Improving a 60/40 with Gold
02 September, 2020 | GraniteShares
The 60/40 portfolio, a strategy of dividing assets between 60% large cap equities and 40% bonds, has long served as the de facto benchmark for risk adjusted returns. The sizable equity allocation allows for decent upside capture and long-term growth, while the fixed income pool dampens the volatility inherent to stock ownership.
A somewhat choppy week for U.S. stock markets with the S&P 500 Index striving for but not reaching record highs on Wednesday. Despite stronger-than-expected U.S. economic reports (including lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims, strong retail sales and industrial production reports) and a falling number of new Covid-19 cases and deaths, U.S. stock markets struggled to move higher last week. Concerns surrounding the legality of President Trump’s executive orders combined with still-stalled congressional coronavirus-related stimulus negotiations and, perhaps, higher-than-expected PPI, CPI and wage inflation numbers may have limited stock market gains. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate moved higher all through the week, reacting to corporate and government supply pressures, higher-than-expected inflation numbers and strong U.S. economic reports. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 0.6% to 3,372.85, the Nasdaq Composite index increased 0.1% to 11,019.30, the 10-year U.S. interest rate increased 14 bps to 71 bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.4%.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities and Precious Metals Update (Week ending August 14 , 2020)
17 August, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
A somewhat choppy week for U.S. stock markets with the S&P 500 Index striving for but not reaching record highs on Wednesday. Despite stronger-than-expected U.S. economic reports (including lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims, strong retail sales and industrial production reports) and a falling number of new Covid-19 cases and deaths, U.S. stock markets struggled to move higher last week. Concerns surrounding the legality of President Trump’s executive orders combined with still-stalled congressional coronavirus-related stimulus negotiations and, perhaps, higher-than-expected PPI, CPI and wage inflation numbers may have limited stock market gains. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate moved higher all through the week, reacting to corporate and government supply pressures, higher-than-expected inflation numbers and strong U.S. economic reports. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 0.6% to 3,372.85, the Nasdaq Composite index increased 0.1% to 11,019.30, the 10-year U.S. interest rate increased 14 bps to 71 bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.4%.
Against a backdrop of better-than-expected economic reports and earning results and indications new Covid-19 cases may be falling, U.S. stock markets all moved higher again last week despite concerns over increased U.S.-China frictions and stalled congressional progess on additional coronavirus relief funds. Better-than-expected factory orders and ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing index numbers combined with lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims and a stronger-than-expected payroll report helped move U.S. equity markets higher. Earning results reported last week were predominantly positive also helping move equity markets higher. Early-in-the-week optimism that congress would reach agreement on additional coronavirus-related relief funds faded as the week ended with no progress, but was slightly ameliorated with the Trump administration announcing the President may take executive action to extend existing programs. Both the U.S. dollar and the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate moved off their lows reached earlier in the week on stronger-than-expected economic reports and signs the number of new Covid-19 cases may be decreasing. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite index each increased 2.5% to 3,351.28 and 11,010.98, respectively. the 10-year U.S. interest rate increased 4 bps to 57 bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) was unchanged.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities and Precious Metals Update (Week ending August 7 , 2020)
10 August, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Against a backdrop of better-than-expected economic reports and earning results and indications new Covid-19 cases may be falling, U.S. stock markets all moved higher again last week despite concerns over increased U.S.-China frictions and stalled congressional progess on additional coronavirus relief funds. Better-than-expected factory orders and ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing index numbers combined with lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims and a stronger-than-expected payroll report helped move U.S. equity markets higher. Earning results reported last week were predominantly positive also helping move equity markets higher. Early-in-the-week optimism that congress would reach agreement on additional coronavirus-related relief funds faded as the week ended with no progress, but was slightly ameliorated with the Trump administration announcing the President may take executive action to extend existing programs. Both the U.S. dollar and the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate moved off their lows reached earlier in the week on stronger-than-expected economic reports and signs the number of new Covid-19 cases may be decreasing. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite index each increased 2.5% to 3,351.28 and 11,010.98, respectively. the 10-year U.S. interest rate increased 4 bps to 57 bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) was unchanged.
Oil prices ended the week higher, rising every day but one during the week. Rising gasoline prices (in front of Memorial Day Weekend) and falling oil, gasoline and distillate inventories helped move prices higher throughout the week. Comments from Saudi Arabia’s energy minister warning short sellers of potential “pain” and Friday’s report of progress in debt ceiling talks also contributed to gains. Prices fell Thursday (the only down day) following comments from Russian officials expressing doubts regarding additional production cutbacks (seemingly contradicting comments from Saudi’s energy minister). Natural gas prices reversed the previous week’s sharp gains, falling almost 11% amidst strong production combined with weak weather-related demand.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Metals & Markets Update (Week Ending May 26, 2023)
30 May, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices ended the week higher, rising every day but one during the week. Rising gasoline prices (in front of Memorial Day Weekend) and falling oil, gasoline and distillate inventories helped move prices higher throughout the week. Comments from Saudi Arabia’s energy minister warning short sellers of potential “pain” and Friday’s report of progress in debt ceiling talks also contributed to gains. Prices fell Thursday (the only down day) following comments from Russian officials expressing doubts regarding additional production cutbacks (seemingly contradicting comments from Saudi’s energy minister). Natural gas prices reversed the previous week’s sharp gains, falling almost 11% amidst strong production combined with weak weather-related demand.
Gold prices, too, mainly moved with debt ceiling resolution expectations. Higher Monday on debt ceiling concerns and a weaker U.S. dollar, gold prices fell Tuesday through Thursday on news of progress in debt ceiling talks but also on hawkish Fed comments and decent economic news. Gold prices shot higher Friday (up 1%) following news the debt ceiling talks had been paused. Gold and silver prices ended lower on the week while spot platinum prices closed the week about 1% higher.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Metals & Markets Update (Week Ending May 19, 2023)
22 May, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Gold prices, too, mainly moved with debt ceiling resolution expectations. Higher Monday on debt ceiling concerns and a weaker U.S. dollar, gold prices fell Tuesday through Thursday on news of progress in debt ceiling talks but also on hawkish Fed comments and decent economic news. Gold prices shot higher Friday (up 1%) following news the debt ceiling talks had been paused. Gold and silver prices ended lower on the week while spot platinum prices closed the week about 1% higher.
Spot gold prices also moved higher early in the week, climbing just under 1% through Tuesday on U.S. banking and recession concerns. Tighter credit conditions, as reported by the Fed, increased expectations the Fed would be more likely to ease this year also supported prices. Despite Wednesday’s slightly better-than-expected CPI release, expectations of the Fed easing later this year fell with sentiment influenced by the stubbornly high level of inflation. Friday’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report showing rising inflation expectations added to this sentiment, driving Treasury rates and the dollar higher while pushing gold prices lower.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Metals & Markets Update (Week Ending May 12, 2023)
15 May, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Spot gold prices also moved higher early in the week, climbing just under 1% through Tuesday on U.S. banking and recession concerns. Tighter credit conditions, as reported by the Fed, increased expectations the Fed would be more likely to ease this year also supported prices. Despite Wednesday’s slightly better-than-expected CPI release, expectations of the Fed easing later this year fell with sentiment influenced by the stubbornly high level of inflation. Friday’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report showing rising inflation expectations added to this sentiment, driving Treasury rates and the dollar higher while pushing gold prices lower.
Spot gold prices moved oppositely to stock prices last week. Rallying on banking system, U.S. default and recession concerns, gold prices rose over 3% through Thursday. About half those gains were removed Friday following a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report and sharply lessened banking system concerns. For the week, spot gold prices rose just under 1.5% while spot silver prices gained about 2.5%. Platinum and palladium prices fell about 1%,
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Metals & Markets Update (Week Ending May 5, 2023)
08 May, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Spot gold prices moved oppositely to stock prices last week. Rallying on banking system, U.S. default and recession concerns, gold prices rose over 3% through Thursday. About half those gains were removed Friday following a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report and sharply lessened banking system concerns. For the week, spot gold prices rose just under 1.5% while spot silver prices gained about 2.5%. Platinum and palladium prices fell about 1%,
Copper prices end the week lower, falling through Tuesday on weak Chinese demand, increased supplies and a stronger U.S. dollar. Prices then partially rebounded the remainder of the weak supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, Chinese stimulus plans and, for the most part, an as-expected PCE Price Index release. Other base metal prices followed copper prices lower.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Metals & Markets Update (Week Ending April 28, 2023)
28 April, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Copper prices end the week lower, falling through Tuesday on weak Chinese demand, increased supplies and a stronger U.S. dollar. Prices then partially rebounded the remainder of the weak supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, Chinese stimulus plans and, for the most part, an as-expected PCE Price Index release. Other base metal prices followed copper prices lower.
The unfortunate reality is that a deep chasm stands between investor income requirements and what conventional strategies can now yield. Alternative Income may help bridge the divide.
Topic: Income
Publication Type: Investment Cases
The Income Blueprint: Potential Strategy for Income Replacement with HIPS
13 October, 2020 | GraniteShares
The unfortunate reality is that a deep chasm stands between investor income requirements and what conventional strategies can now yield. Alternative Income may help bridge the divide.
Income is one of the most basic, yet important needs of any portfolio—the capacity to generate enduring cashflows to fund expenses. While searching for sustainable yield is never easy, over the last decade income investing become a most unpalatable cocktail — one part frustration and two parts despair (add bitters to taste). These were the difficulties that pervaded income investing before COVID-19 struck, an economic shock that redoubled the income challenge to near unimaginable levels.
Topic: Income
Publication Type: Investment Cases
The Income Blueprint: Potential Strategies for Income Replacement with HIPS
10 September, 2020 | GraniteShares
Income is one of the most basic, yet important needs of any portfolio—the capacity to generate enduring cashflows to fund expenses. While searching for sustainable yield is never easy, over the last decade income investing become a most unpalatable cocktail — one part frustration and two parts despair (add bitters to taste). These were the difficulties that pervaded income investing before COVID-19 struck, an economic shock that redoubled the income challenge to near unimaginable levels.
Mental accounting is a truly defining feature of the human condition. Find out how much of your income is mental, and how it may prevent you from acheiving your true income goals.
Topic: Alternative Income
Publication Type: Investment Cases
How Much of Your Income is Mental? Overcoming Human Fallacies in Investing
27 March, 2020 | GraniteShares
Mental accounting is a truly defining feature of the human condition. Find out how much of your income is mental, and how it may prevent you from acheiving your true income goals.
If you thought achieving income yields was difficult, life will only get harder—the Fed that giveth can taketh away. Just as investors were getting accustomed to the taste of at least modestly non-zero rates, expectations have shifted swiftly.
Topic: Alternative Income
Publication Type: Investment Cases
Help! What Happened to My Income?
27 March, 2020 | GraniteShares
If you thought achieving income yields was difficult, life will only get harder—the Fed that giveth can taketh away. Just as investors were getting accustomed to the taste of at least modestly non-zero rates, expectations have shifted swiftly.
While generating sustainable yield for income investing has never been an easy task, the latest shockwaves to reverberate through interest rate markets have only compounded this challenge. The core of this problem for investors, whether retirees, long-term savers, or anyone looking to diversify their returns, is they are probably looking for yield in all the wrong places.
Topic: Income
Publication Type: Investment Cases
Looking for Yield in All the Wrong Places: 7% Income and How to Get it in Today’s Market
27 March, 2020 | GraniteShares
While generating sustainable yield for income investing has never been an easy task, the latest shockwaves to reverberate through interest rate markets have only compounded this challenge. The core of this problem for investors, whether retirees, long-term savers, or anyone looking to diversify their returns, is they are probably looking for yield in all the wrong places.
The speed and magnitude of technological disruption is relevant because current and future technologies will continue to create winners (i.e., the disruptors) and losers (i.e., the disruptees) among all companies across industries faster than the market may realize.
Topic: XOUT
Publication Type: Investment Cases
The Cost of Underestimating Technological Disruption
06 October, 2021 | GraniteShares
The speed and magnitude of technological disruption is relevant because current and future technologies will continue to create winners (i.e., the disruptors) and losers (i.e., the disruptees) among all companies across industries faster than the market may realize.
When no company or industry is immune from disruptive challenge, perhaps never has the number of potential losers been so plentiful, nor the disparity between winners and losers been so vast. Rather than succumb to conventional wisdom, perhaps the only thing more important than what you put IN your portfolio is what you XOUT.
Topic: XOUT
Publication Type: Investment Cases
How Many Losers Are in the S&P 500?
17 August, 2020 | GraniteShares
When no company or industry is immune from disruptive challenge, perhaps never has the number of potential losers been so plentiful, nor the disparity between winners and losers been so vast. Rather than succumb to conventional wisdom, perhaps the only thing more important than what you put IN your portfolio is what you XOUT.
The response to novel coronavirus has emerged as one of the most economically disruptive events in human history. With the physical economy all but tossed asunder, COVID19 has aggressively intensified the drumbeat of digital disruption impacting all industries. A rapid bifurcation in the market is underway, between companies with adaptive ties to the virtual economy and those that are reduced to bailout dependency—no one is immune.
Topic: XOUT
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
An Economy Rebalanced: Q2 Top 10 Market Eliminations by the XOUT Strategy
14 August, 2020 | GraniteShares
The response to novel coronavirus has emerged as one of the most economically disruptive events in human history. With the physical economy all but tossed asunder, COVID19 has aggressively intensified the drumbeat of digital disruption impacting all industries. A rapid bifurcation in the market is underway, between companies with adaptive ties to the virtual economy and those that are reduced to bailout dependency—no one is immune.
The latest XOUT rebalance gives fresh insight into the pulse of disruption, and significantly, the players who are falling behind in the race to innovate effectively. Here we examine the 10 largest companies XOUT eliminates this quarter—the roughly $3 trillion in market cap vulnerable to secular decline. When yesterday’s titans can rapidly become today’s bankruptcies, the XOUT Index continually looks to identify potential market laggards, aiming to leave them out of the portfolio.
Topic: XOUT
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
See Ya Dimon, Hello Fink: Top 10 XOUT’s for Q1 2020
28 March, 2020 | GraniteShares
The latest XOUT rebalance gives fresh insight into the pulse of disruption, and significantly, the players who are falling behind in the race to innovate effectively. Here we examine the 10 largest companies XOUT eliminates this quarter—the roughly $3 trillion in market cap vulnerable to secular decline. When yesterday’s titans can rapidly become today’s bankruptcies, the XOUT Index continually looks to identify potential market laggards, aiming to leave them out of the portfolio.
XOUT’s methodology counters traditional investment strategies. Rather than trying to pick a select few winners, XOUT flips the investment paradigm by seeking to avoid losers that are failing to adapt amid today’s environment of unprecedented technological change.
Topic: Precious Metals , XOUT
Publication Type: Viewpoints
GraniteShares Launches XOUT U.S. Large Cap ETF (XOUT)
27 March, 2020 | GraniteShares
XOUT’s methodology counters traditional investment strategies. Rather than trying to pick a select few winners, XOUT flips the investment paradigm by seeking to avoid losers that are failing to adapt amid today’s environment of unprecedented technological change.
