Researches By Comb
Oil prices moved markedly lower suffering from a much larger-than-expected build in U.S. inventories, larger-than-expected increase in gasoline inventories, declining heating oil demand and growing U.S. production. Diminished Mideast tensions also contributed to lower prices while Friday’s weaker-than-expected payroll report seemed to have little effect on prices.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Report (Week Ending May 3, 2024)
06 May, 2024 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices moved markedly lower suffering from a much larger-than-expected build in U.S. inventories, larger-than-expected increase in gasoline inventories, declining heating oil demand and growing U.S. production. Diminished Mideast tensions also contributed to lower prices while Friday’s weaker-than-expected payroll report seemed to have little effect on prices.
Grain prices moved higher with wheat prices increasing the most. Wheat prices benefited from European frost damage to crops, adverse Ukraine and Russia weather forecasts and on Russia attacks on Ukraine grain infrastructure. Prices also benefited from adverse weather forecasts for Southwestern Plains states. Corn and soybean prices moved higher with wheat prices and benefited, to some extent, from a stronger Brazilian real relative to the U.S. dollar.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Report (Week Ending April 26, 2024)
26 April, 2024 | Jeff Klearman
Grain prices moved higher with wheat prices increasing the most. Wheat prices benefited from European frost damage to crops, adverse Ukraine and Russia weather forecasts and on Russia attacks on Ukraine grain infrastructure. Prices also benefited from adverse weather forecasts for Southwestern Plains states. Corn and soybean prices moved higher with wheat prices and benefited, to some extent, from a stronger Brazilian real relative to the U.S. dollar.
Copper and other base metal prices moved sharply higher last week, buoyed by U.S. and UK sanctions on Russian metals (the sanctions prevent delivery of Russian metal to the LME), increased expectations of a copper deficit and signs of China economic growth. Aluminum and nickel prices, directly affected by the U.S. and UK sanctions, increased the most, followed by copper prices.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Report (Week Ending April 19, 2024)
22 April, 2024 | Jeff Klearman
Copper and other base metal prices moved sharply higher last week, buoyed by U.S. and UK sanctions on Russian metals (the sanctions prevent delivery of Russian metal to the LME), increased expectations of a copper deficit and signs of China economic growth. Aluminum and nickel prices, directly affected by the U.S. and UK sanctions, increased the most, followed by copper prices.
Copper prices moved higher again last week finding support from a resilient U.S. economy, stronger-than-expected German industrial production and hopes of growing Chinese demand amidst production cutbacks. Price gains, however, were capped by a significantly stronger U.S. dollar resulting from lowered U.S. rate-cut expectations.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Report (Week Ending April 12, 2024)
15 April, 2024 | Jeff Klearman
Copper prices moved higher again last week finding support from a resilient U.S. economy, stronger-than-expected German industrial production and hopes of growing Chinese demand amidst production cutbacks. Price gains, however, were capped by a significantly stronger U.S. dollar resulting from lowered U.S. rate-cut expectations.
Spot gold prices moved markedly higher last week, buoyed by central bank and haven demand (resulting primarily from Increased Israel-Iran tensions and the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict) and despite increased uncertainty regarding Fed rate cuts following hawkish fed officials’ comments and strong U.S. economic data.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Report (Week Ending April 5, 2024)
08 April, 2024 | Jeff Klearman
Spot gold prices moved markedly higher last week, buoyed by central bank and haven demand (resulting primarily from Increased Israel-Iran tensions and the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict) and despite increased uncertainty regarding Fed rate cuts following hawkish fed officials’ comments and strong U.S. economic data.
Crude oil prices moved higher last week, bolstered by Russia production cutbacks, Ukraine drone attacks on Russian oil refineries and economic data pointing to a resilient U.S. economy. An unexpected rise in oil and gasoline inventories as reported by the EIA sent prices lower Wednesday, capping the weekly increase. Gasoline prices were practically unchanged and heating prices finished slightly lower on the week. Natural gas prices, down almost 6% through Wednesday on oversupply concerns, rallied almost 3% Thursday on a larger-than-expected drop in storage levels.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Report (Week Ending March 28, 2024)
01 April, 2024 | Jeff Klearman
Crude oil prices moved higher last week, bolstered by Russia production cutbacks, Ukraine drone attacks on Russian oil refineries and economic data pointing to a resilient U.S. economy. An unexpected rise in oil and gasoline inventories as reported by the EIA sent prices lower Wednesday, capping the weekly increase. Gasoline prices were practically unchanged and heating prices finished slightly lower on the week. Natural gas prices, down almost 6% through Wednesday on oversupply concerns, rallied almost 3% Thursday on a larger-than-expected drop in storage levels.
Spot gold prices moved noticeably higher early last week, jumping almost 1.5% higher Wednesday following an as-expected FOMC rate decision along with dovish Fed Chair Powell comments and a better-than-expected dot plot release. Price gains reversed over Thursday and Friday on a stronger U.S. dollar and perhaps on profit taking. Silver and platinum prices moved lower moving more in step with base metal prices.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Report (Week Ending March 22, 2024)
25 March, 2024 | Jeff Klearman
Spot gold prices moved noticeably higher early last week, jumping almost 1.5% higher Wednesday following an as-expected FOMC rate decision along with dovish Fed Chair Powell comments and a better-than-expected dot plot release. Price gains reversed over Thursday and Friday on a stronger U.S. dollar and perhaps on profit taking. Silver and platinum prices moved lower moving more in step with base metal prices.
Buoyed by increased IEA demand forecasts and Ukraine drone attacks on Russian refineries, crude oil prices moved 4% higher last week. Increased U.S refinery utilization rates and a surprise fall in U.S. oil inventories also contributed to the gain. Last week’s gain comes despite a noticeably stronger U.S. dollar.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Report (Week Ending March 15, 2024)
18 March, 2024 | Jeff Klearman
Buoyed by increased IEA demand forecasts and Ukraine drone attacks on Russian refineries, crude oil prices moved 4% higher last week. Increased U.S refinery utilization rates and a surprise fall in U.S. oil inventories also contributed to the gain. Last week’s gain comes despite a noticeably stronger U.S. dollar.
Spot gold prices powered higher again last week driven by growing expectations of rate cuts as soon as June and by continued haven demand. Prices rose every day last week, at first in expectation of favorable Fed Chair Powell testimony and then following Powell testimony that the Fed will likely be in a position to lower rates soon. Friday’s employment report showing slowing wage growth and a higher unemployment rate also helped gold prices move higher.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Report (Week Ending March 8, 2024)
11 March, 2024 | Jeff Klearman
Spot gold prices powered higher again last week driven by growing expectations of rate cuts as soon as June and by continued haven demand. Prices rose every day last week, at first in expectation of favorable Fed Chair Powell testimony and then following Powell testimony that the Fed will likely be in a position to lower rates soon. Friday’s employment report showing slowing wage growth and a higher unemployment rate also helped gold prices move higher.
Declining Chinese manufacturing activity and more bad news from China’s property sector pushed copper prices lower last week (despite a slightly weaker dollar and increased expectations of a June Fed rate cut). Nickel, aluminum and zinc prices, however, moved higher, reacting to potential U.S. and EU Russia sanctions, a weaker dollar and, for Nickel, Indonesian production concerns.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Report (Week Ending March 1, 2024)
04 March, 2024 | Jeff Klearman
Declining Chinese manufacturing activity and more bad news from China’s property sector pushed copper prices lower last week (despite a slightly weaker dollar and increased expectations of a June Fed rate cut). Nickel, aluminum and zinc prices, however, moved higher, reacting to potential U.S. and EU Russia sanctions, a weaker dollar and, for Nickel, Indonesian production concerns.
Spot gold prices moved higher last week despite hawkish FOMC minutes and Fed officials’ comments. Haven buying, predicated on Mideast tensions, helped buoy gold prices but so did a weaker U.S. dollar and lower 10-year Treasury rates. The U.S. dollar weakened despite reduced expectations of “sooner-than-later” rate cuts, perhaps on profit taking. Spot silver and platinum prices moved lower, giving up some of last week’s noticeable gains.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Report (Week Ending February 23, 2024)
26 February, 2024 | Jeff Klearman
Spot gold prices moved higher last week despite hawkish FOMC minutes and Fed officials’ comments. Haven buying, predicated on Mideast tensions, helped buoy gold prices but so did a weaker U.S. dollar and lower 10-year Treasury rates. The U.S. dollar weakened despite reduced expectations of “sooner-than-later” rate cuts, perhaps on profit taking. Spot silver and platinum prices moved lower, giving up some of last week’s noticeable gains.
Energy prices were mixed last week. Oil prices moved about 2% higher, bolstered mainly by Mideast and Red Sea/Houthi-related tensions, offsetting an unexpected sharp rise in inventories and higher rate/lower demand concerns precipitated by higher-than-expected CPI and PPI releases. Heating oil prices, however, affected by falling refinery runs and utilization rates, ended the week 3% lower while gasoline prices were basically unchanged. Natural gas prices, reeling from oversupply conditions and warm winter weather, fell a little over 9%.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Report (Week Ending February 16, 2024)
20 February, 2024 | Jeff Klearman
Energy prices were mixed last week. Oil prices moved about 2% higher, bolstered mainly by Mideast and Red Sea/Houthi-related tensions, offsetting an unexpected sharp rise in inventories and higher rate/lower demand concerns precipitated by higher-than-expected CPI and PPI releases. Heating oil prices, however, affected by falling refinery runs and utilization rates, ended the week 3% lower while gasoline prices were basically unchanged. Natural gas prices, reeling from oversupply conditions and warm winter weather, fell a little over 9%.
Oil prices moved sharply higher last week, bolstered by Mideast and Ukraine/Russia tensions and falling fuel stocks. U.S. reprisal strikes in Mideast, Houthi Red Sea shipping attacks, Ukraine drone attacks on Russian refineries and lowered Israel/Hamas ceasefire expectations combined to jolt oil prices higher. Adding to upward price pressures was a much greater-than-expected fall in fuel inventories and the EIA substantively lowering its 2024 oil production forecast. Natural gas prices moved sharply lower in reaction to the Biden’s administration moratorium on new LNG production/facilities.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Report (Week Ending February 9, 2024)
12 February, 2024 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices moved sharply higher last week, bolstered by Mideast and Ukraine/Russia tensions and falling fuel stocks. U.S. reprisal strikes in Mideast, Houthi Red Sea shipping attacks, Ukraine drone attacks on Russian refineries and lowered Israel/Hamas ceasefire expectations combined to jolt oil prices higher. Adding to upward price pressures was a much greater-than-expected fall in fuel inventories and the EIA substantively lowering its 2024 oil production forecast. Natural gas prices moved sharply lower in reaction to the Biden’s administration moratorium on new LNG production/facilities.
Spot gold prices moved higher last week, benefiting primarily from haven buying. Increased Mideast tension in general and the deaths of 3 U.S. soldiers in particular increased gold haven demand, pushing prices higher during the week. Wednesday’s hawkish Powell comments following an as-expected rate decision, acting to pressure prices lower, was offset by renewed regional bank concerns precipitated by New York Community Bank’s unexpected Q4 loss. A larger-than-expected increase in Thursday’s jobless claims bolstered prices while Friday’s much stronger-than-expected payroll report, moving 10-year Treasury rates and the U.S. dollar higher, dragged prices lower. Silver and platinum prices, lower on the week, moved with base metal prices.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Report (Week Ending February 2, 2024)
05 February, 2024 | Jeff Klearman
Spot gold prices moved higher last week, benefiting primarily from haven buying. Increased Mideast tension in general and the deaths of 3 U.S. soldiers in particular increased gold haven demand, pushing prices higher during the week. Wednesday’s hawkish Powell comments following an as-expected rate decision, acting to pressure prices lower, was offset by renewed regional bank concerns precipitated by New York Community Bank’s unexpected Q4 loss. A larger-than-expected increase in Thursday’s jobless claims bolstered prices while Friday’s much stronger-than-expected payroll report, moving 10-year Treasury rates and the U.S. dollar higher, dragged prices lower. Silver and platinum prices, lower on the week, moved with base metal prices.
Oil prices moved sharply higher last week, bolstered by Red Sea related tensions, supportive economic data and Chinese stimulus measures. Prices also were supported by a Ukrainian attack on a Russian fuel terminal, continued cold-weather related U.S. production disruptions and a larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. oil inventories. Lower-than-expected inflation offset a better-than-expected Q1 GDP release (in the U.S.) while an as-expected ECB rate decision accompanied by dovish ECB Pres. Lagarde comments also contributed to oil price gains.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Report (Week Ending January 26, 2024)
29 January, 2024 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices moved sharply higher last week, bolstered by Red Sea related tensions, supportive economic data and Chinese stimulus measures. Prices also were supported by a Ukrainian attack on a Russian fuel terminal, continued cold-weather related U.S. production disruptions and a larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. oil inventories. Lower-than-expected inflation offset a better-than-expected Q1 GDP release (in the U.S.) while an as-expected ECB rate decision accompanied by dovish ECB Pres. Lagarde comments also contributed to oil price gains.
Spot gold prices moved lower last week, affected by diminished expectations of Fed rate cuts this year. A better-than-expected retails sales report, lower-than-expected initial jobless claims and hawkish Fed officials’ comments throughout the week, worked to pressure prices lower. Prices partially recovered Thursday and Friday, spurred by safe-haven buying related to Red Sea/Houthi events. Silver prices underperformed gold prices while platinum prices, also lower, outperformed gold prices.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jan 19
22 January, 2024 | Jeff Klearman
Spot gold prices moved lower last week, affected by diminished expectations of Fed rate cuts this year. A better-than-expected retails sales report, lower-than-expected initial jobless claims and hawkish Fed officials’ comments throughout the week, worked to pressure prices lower. Prices partially recovered Thursday and Friday, spurred by safe-haven buying related to Red Sea/Houthi events. Silver prices underperformed gold prices while platinum prices, also lower, outperformed gold prices.
Another volatile week with oil prices finishing about 1% lower. Oil prices moved sharply lower Monday, reacting to increased supplies from some OPEC producers as well as other non-OPEC producers. Prices moved higher Tuesday on increased Red Sea tensions but then fell sharply Wednesday after a surprise large build in U.S. inventories and on increased euro zone demand concerns. Thursday and Friday saw prices rise, bolstered by U.S. extreme cold weather forecasts, U.S. and British attacks on Houthi (Yemen) military sites and on Iran’s seizure of a freighter.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Report (Week Ending January 12, 2024)
16 January, 2024 | Jeff Klearman
Another volatile week with oil prices finishing about 1% lower. Oil prices moved sharply lower Monday, reacting to increased supplies from some OPEC producers as well as other non-OPEC producers. Prices moved higher Tuesday on increased Red Sea tensions but then fell sharply Wednesday after a surprise large build in U.S. inventories and on increased euro zone demand concerns. Thursday and Friday saw prices rise, bolstered by U.S. extreme cold weather forecasts, U.S. and British attacks on Houthi (Yemen) military sites and on Iran’s seizure of a freighter.
Spot gold prices fell last week pushed lower by renewed concerns the Fed may not ease as quickly or as much as expected. Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes release drove prices almost 1% lower with minutes revealing uncertainty with regard to rate cuts. Despite lower-than-expected jobless claims and a better-than-expected payroll report, gold prices rose with markets revisiting FOMC minutes and noting a weaker-than-expected ISM Services PMI release, somewhat reducing Fed rate-cut uncertainty.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Report (Week Ending January 5, 2025)
08 January, 2024 | Jeff Klearman
Spot gold prices fell last week pushed lower by renewed concerns the Fed may not ease as quickly or as much as expected. Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes release drove prices almost 1% lower with minutes revealing uncertainty with regard to rate cuts. Despite lower-than-expected jobless claims and a better-than-expected payroll report, gold prices rose with markets revisiting FOMC minutes and noting a weaker-than-expected ISM Services PMI release, somewhat reducing Fed rate-cut uncertainty.
Spot gold prices moved higher last week supported by continued rate-cut expectations for early next year as well as slightly weaker-than-expected jobless claims. Spot prices finished off their intraweek highs, with prices moving lower on a strengthening U.S. dollar and holiday-related lethargy. Nonetheless, spot gold prices finished the year up over 13% and just below highs last set in August 2020. Platinum prices outperformed gold prices on the week, moving higher with base metal prices while palladium prices fell over 8% and silver prices dropped just under 2%.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Dec 29
02 January, 2024 | Jeff Klearman
Spot gold prices moved higher last week supported by continued rate-cut expectations for early next year as well as slightly weaker-than-expected jobless claims. Spot prices finished off their intraweek highs, with prices moving lower on a strengthening U.S. dollar and holiday-related lethargy. Nonetheless, spot gold prices finished the year up over 13% and just below highs last set in August 2020. Platinum prices outperformed gold prices on the week, moving higher with base metal prices while palladium prices fell over 8% and silver prices dropped just under 2%.
Gold prices moved lockstep to stock prices, rising early in the week, retracting Wednesday, and then rising the remainder of the week. Underlying forces were similar as well, with continued Fed rate-cut, cooling inflation and resilient economy expectations responsible for price gains early in the week. Doubts of those same expectations moved prices lower Wednesday only to see them rebound and more Thursday and Friday following a revised-lower Q3 GDP and a better-than-expected PCE Price Index release. Silver prices moved with gold prices while platinum prices outperformed.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Dec 22
26 December, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Gold prices moved lockstep to stock prices, rising early in the week, retracting Wednesday, and then rising the remainder of the week. Underlying forces were similar as well, with continued Fed rate-cut, cooling inflation and resilient economy expectations responsible for price gains early in the week. Doubts of those same expectations moved prices lower Wednesday only to see them rebound and more Thursday and Friday following a revised-lower Q3 GDP and a better-than-expected PCE Price Index release. Silver prices moved with gold prices while platinum prices outperformed.
Gold prices performed similarly to oil prices, falling early in the week and then recouping all and more of those losses the remainder. Future Fed policy doubts, in front of Wednesday’s FOMC announcement, pushed gold prices markedly lower Tuesday after a somewhat lackluster CPI release. Wednesday’s dovish comments accompanying an as-expected FOMC rate decision, however, propelled prices sharply higher. Hawkish Fed comments Friday strengthened the U.S. dollar and moved prices off their highs. Silver and platinum prices outperformed gold prices, moving in line with base metal prices. Platinum prices soared 24% higher.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Dec 15
18 December, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Gold prices performed similarly to oil prices, falling early in the week and then recouping all and more of those losses the remainder. Future Fed policy doubts, in front of Wednesday’s FOMC announcement, pushed gold prices markedly lower Tuesday after a somewhat lackluster CPI release. Wednesday’s dovish comments accompanying an as-expected FOMC rate decision, however, propelled prices sharply higher. Hawkish Fed comments Friday strengthened the U.S. dollar and moved prices off their highs. Silver and platinum prices outperformed gold prices, moving in line with base metal prices. Platinum prices soared 24% higher.
Oil prices moved lower last week, affected by both demand and supply concerns. Prices continued to react negatively to last week's OPEC+ announcement calling for increased but voluntary production cutbacks and to increased global demand concerns. Wednesday’s EIA release showing a much larger-than-expected build in gasoline stocks particularly unsettled markets, pushing WTI crude oil prices over 4% lower. Friday’s stronger-than-expected jobs report and Saudi Arabia’s and Russia’s entreaty to other OPEC+ members to reduce production lifted prices about 3% higher, moving prices off of Thursday’s lows. Natural gas prices fell 8%, reacting to warm-weather forecasts, increased production and high inventory levels.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Dec 08
11 December, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices moved lower last week, affected by both demand and supply concerns. Prices continued to react negatively to last week's OPEC+ announcement calling for increased but voluntary production cutbacks and to increased global demand concerns. Wednesday’s EIA release showing a much larger-than-expected build in gasoline stocks particularly unsettled markets, pushing WTI crude oil prices over 4% lower. Friday’s stronger-than-expected jobs report and Saudi Arabia’s and Russia’s entreaty to other OPEC+ members to reduce production lifted prices about 3% higher, moving prices off of Thursday’s lows. Natural gas prices fell 8%, reacting to warm-weather forecasts, increased production and high inventory levels.
Spot gold prices continued to rise last week, benefiting from increased expectations of a “sooner-than-expected” Fed pivot, falling longer-term Treasury rates and a slightly weaker U.S. dollar. Interestingly, Thursday’s PCE Price Index release, showing lower-than-expected inflation, resulted in a stronger U.S. dollar and lower gold prices, seemingly reflecting market uncertainty regarding future Fed monetary policy. Friday’s comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, however, all but admitting its reluctance to raise rates further, pushed gold prices sharply higher. Silver and platinum prices also rose last week, with silver prices outperforming and platinum prices underperforming gold prices.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Dec 01
04 December, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Spot gold prices continued to rise last week, benefiting from increased expectations of a “sooner-than-expected” Fed pivot, falling longer-term Treasury rates and a slightly weaker U.S. dollar. Interestingly, Thursday’s PCE Price Index release, showing lower-than-expected inflation, resulted in a stronger U.S. dollar and lower gold prices, seemingly reflecting market uncertainty regarding future Fed monetary policy. Friday’s comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, however, all but admitting its reluctance to raise rates further, pushed gold prices sharply higher. Silver and platinum prices also rose last week, with silver prices outperforming and platinum prices underperforming gold prices.
Oil prices ended slightly lower on the week, belying volatility due to OPEC+ supply concerns. Prices rose north of 2% Monday, climbing on OPEC+ comments that they were considering additional cutbacks. Prices then moved sharply lower Wednesday and Friday following a postponement of the scheduled November 26 OPEC+ meeting (due to internal cutback/production disagreements) and a larger-than-expected build in U.S. inventories.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Nov 24
27 November, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices ended slightly lower on the week, belying volatility due to OPEC+ supply concerns. Prices rose north of 2% Monday, climbing on OPEC+ comments that they were considering additional cutbacks. Prices then moved sharply lower Wednesday and Friday following a postponement of the scheduled November 26 OPEC+ meeting (due to internal cutback/production disagreements) and a larger-than-expected build in U.S. inventories.
Spot gold prices rose last week, benefiting from a combination of cooling inflation and weaker-than-expected economic data. Tuesday’s better-than-expected CPI release pushed 10-year Treasury rates almost 20bps lower and significantly weakened the U.S. dollar, driving gold prices higher. Declining PPI and retail sales numbers (MoM) combined with larger-than-expected initial jobless claims, added to expectations of a Fed pivot sooner than previously expected, adding to upward price momentum. Silver, platinum and palladium prices also rose last week, outperforming gold prices.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Nov 17
20 November, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Spot gold prices rose last week, benefiting from a combination of cooling inflation and weaker-than-expected economic data. Tuesday’s better-than-expected CPI release pushed 10-year Treasury rates almost 20bps lower and significantly weakened the U.S. dollar, driving gold prices higher. Declining PPI and retail sales numbers (MoM) combined with larger-than-expected initial jobless claims, added to expectations of a Fed pivot sooner than previously expected, adding to upward price momentum. Silver, platinum and palladium prices also rose last week, outperforming gold prices.
Oil prices moved lower again last week struggling against a background of continued weak Chinese and European economic data. Hawkish comments from Fed Chairman Powell as well as from ECB and BoE officials also worked to pressure prices by dimming demand expectations. Prices also suffered from a much larger-than-expected U.S. inventory build (according to the API) and from EIA forecasts of weaker demand and growing supply next year. Natural gas prices moved sharply lower (down 14%), reeling from increased production, November warm-weather forecasts and weak LNG exports.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Nov 10
13 November, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices moved lower again last week struggling against a background of continued weak Chinese and European economic data. Hawkish comments from Fed Chairman Powell as well as from ECB and BoE officials also worked to pressure prices by dimming demand expectations. Prices also suffered from a much larger-than-expected U.S. inventory build (according to the API) and from EIA forecasts of weaker demand and growing supply next year. Natural gas prices moved sharply lower (down 14%), reeling from increased production, November warm-weather forecasts and weak LNG exports.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Nov 3
06 November, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Spot gold prices moved higher again last week primarily on haven-based buying. Prices fell through Tuesday with lessened Mid-East concerns but then moved higher the remainder of the week as though concerns increased, especially on Friday. Silver prices ended the week about 1% lower while platinum prices moved higher by about 1%.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Oct 27
30 October, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Spot gold prices moved higher again last week primarily on haven-based buying. Prices fell through Tuesday with lessened Mid-East concerns but then moved higher the remainder of the week as though concerns increased, especially on Friday. Silver prices ended the week about 1% lower while platinum prices moved higher by about 1%.
Oil prices moved higher last week supported by escalation fears of the Israel-Hamas war and robust Chinese and U.S. economic data. Prices also benefited from a much larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. inventories. Fed Chair Powell’s comments Thursday, stating current monetary policy is not overly restrictive, and the easing of U.S. sanction on Venezuela may have worked to cap gains. Natural gas prices dropped 8%, falling on strong production numbers.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Oct 20
23 October, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices moved higher last week supported by escalation fears of the Israel-Hamas war and robust Chinese and U.S. economic data. Prices also benefited from a much larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. inventories. Fed Chair Powell’s comments Thursday, stating current monetary policy is not overly restrictive, and the easing of U.S. sanction on Venezuela may have worked to cap gains. Natural gas prices dropped 8%, falling on strong production numbers.
Oil prices rose last week, driven by growing contagion concerns of the Israel-Hamas war. Prices rose almost 4% Monday but then drifted lower as initial concerns receded and on Thursday’s EIA report showing a much larger-than-expected build in inventories. Friday saw prices sharply rise following reports of Israel commencing its ground offensive in Gaza. Natural gas prices fell slightly on no real news.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Oct 13
16 October, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices rose last week, driven by growing contagion concerns of the Israel-Hamas war. Prices rose almost 4% Monday but then drifted lower as initial concerns receded and on Thursday’s EIA report showing a much larger-than-expected build in inventories. Friday saw prices sharply rise following reports of Israel commencing its ground offensive in Gaza. Natural gas prices fell slightly on no real news.
Oil and derivate product prices moved sharply lower last week. Prices dropped 6% Wednesday primarily due to a much larger-than-expected build in gasoline inventories and a markedly reduced “gasoline supplied” number. Wednesday’s weakness was compounded by Russia’s termination of its oil products ban, announced Friday but expected by the market Thursday. Friday’s stronger-than-expected payroll report left prices slightly higher with the market unsure if the report portends stronger or weaker demand. Natural gas prices surged last week, rising on much lower-than-expected inventory levels and cool weather forecasted for later this month.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Oct 6
09 October, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Oil and derivate product prices moved sharply lower last week. Prices dropped 6% Wednesday primarily due to a much larger-than-expected build in gasoline inventories and a markedly reduced “gasoline supplied” number. Wednesday’s weakness was compounded by Russia’s termination of its oil products ban, announced Friday but expected by the market Thursday. Friday’s stronger-than-expected payroll report left prices slightly higher with the market unsure if the report portends stronger or weaker demand. Natural gas prices surged last week, rising on much lower-than-expected inventory levels and cool weather forecasted for later this month.
WTI crude oil prices ended the week higher but significantly off intraweek highs. Prices moved higher through Wednesday, propelled by Russia’s oil product export ban and a surprise larger-than-expected drop in U.S. oil inventories. Economic growth concerns enveloped the oil markets Thursday and Friday with “higher-rates-for-longer” expectations and worries about a weak Chinese economy pushing prices lower.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Sep 29
02 October, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
WTI crude oil prices ended the week higher but significantly off intraweek highs. Prices moved higher through Wednesday, propelled by Russia’s oil product export ban and a surprise larger-than-expected drop in U.S. oil inventories. Economic growth concerns enveloped the oil markets Thursday and Friday with “higher-rates-for-longer” expectations and worries about a weak Chinese economy pushing prices lower.
WTI crude oil prices were unchanged last week moving off intraweek highs set Tuesday following Wednesday’s FOMC announcement. Supply concerns, stemming mainly from OPEC+ production/export cutbacks, were increased after a larger-than-expected fall in U.S. oil inventories, Russia’s implementation of high export duties on oil products and a decline in shale oil production. Demand concerns, however, seemed to dominate the week spearheaded by hawkish messages from the Fed, BoE and ECB and exacerbated by high oil prices themselves increasing expectations of global recession. Brent crude oil prices finished the week 2% lower.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Sep 22
25 September, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
WTI crude oil prices were unchanged last week moving off intraweek highs set Tuesday following Wednesday’s FOMC announcement. Supply concerns, stemming mainly from OPEC+ production/export cutbacks, were increased after a larger-than-expected fall in U.S. oil inventories, Russia’s implementation of high export duties on oil products and a decline in shale oil production. Demand concerns, however, seemed to dominate the week spearheaded by hawkish messages from the Fed, BoE and ECB and exacerbated by high oil prices themselves increasing expectations of global recession. Brent crude oil prices finished the week 2% lower.
Oil moved higher again last week, driven by both supply and demand factors. Tuesday the EIA forecasted oil demand growth into next year would outpace oil production increases, with a significant decline in inventories through year-end. The IEA on Wednesday, however, reduced its demand growth projections for the Q4 by 600,000 bpd though added OPEC+ production cutbacks would result in a supply deficit. This combined with a surprise increase in U.S. inventories resulted in the only down-day for oil, with prices declining a meager 1/3 percent. Positive economic data out of China, including growing bank loans, no deflation and better-than-expected retail sales and industrial production, added to demand expectations, providing another impetus for higher prices.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Sep 15
18 September, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Oil moved higher again last week, driven by both supply and demand factors. Tuesday the EIA forecasted oil demand growth into next year would outpace oil production increases, with a significant decline in inventories through year-end. The IEA on Wednesday, however, reduced its demand growth projections for the Q4 by 600,000 bpd though added OPEC+ production cutbacks would result in a supply deficit. This combined with a surprise increase in U.S. inventories resulted in the only down-day for oil, with prices declining a meager 1/3 percent. Positive economic data out of China, including growing bank loans, no deflation and better-than-expected retail sales and industrial production, added to demand expectations, providing another impetus for higher prices.
Oil prices continued their move higher, powered by supply concerns and strong U.S. economic data. Saudi Arabia’s and Russia’s extension of voluntary production cutbacks through the end of the year and sharp, larger-than-expected drawdowns in U.S. inventories significantly contributed to last week’s price rise. Strong U.S. economic data (i.e, lower-than-expected jobless claims and stronger-than-expected ISM Services Index) increased demand expectations, moving prices higher as well. Weak euro zone and Chinese economic data and a strengthening U.S. dollar worked to cap gains.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Sep 8
11 September, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices continued their move higher, powered by supply concerns and strong U.S. economic data. Saudi Arabia’s and Russia’s extension of voluntary production cutbacks through the end of the year and sharp, larger-than-expected drawdowns in U.S. inventories significantly contributed to last week’s price rise. Strong U.S. economic data (i.e, lower-than-expected jobless claims and stronger-than-expected ISM Services Index) increased demand expectations, moving prices higher as well. Weak euro zone and Chinese economic data and a strengthening U.S. dollar worked to cap gains.
Oil prices moved higher every single day last week. Gulf coast production concerns precipitated by Hurricane Idalia supplied early-week impetus for higher prices followed by growing hopes of a more restrained Fed after weaker-than-expected JOLTS, consumer confidence and GDP reports. Expectations of continued OPEC+ production/export cutbacks through October and a larger-than-expected decline in U.S. inventories also helped move prices higher the remainder of the week. Oil prices ended the week up between 6% and 7% while gasoline prices lost about 1% and heating oil prices declined close to 4%. Heating oil prices fell on continued inventory increases.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Sep 1
05 September, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices moved higher every single day last week. Gulf coast production concerns precipitated by Hurricane Idalia supplied early-week impetus for higher prices followed by growing hopes of a more restrained Fed after weaker-than-expected JOLTS, consumer confidence and GDP reports. Expectations of continued OPEC+ production/export cutbacks through October and a larger-than-expected decline in U.S. inventories also helped move prices higher the remainder of the week. Oil prices ended the week up between 6% and 7% while gasoline prices lost about 1% and heating oil prices declined close to 4%. Heating oil prices fell on continued inventory increases.
Spot gold prices rose last week (up almost 1.5%), rising in front of Fed Chair Powell’s Friday Jackson Hole speech with investors seemingly expecting more accommodating Fed monetary policy going forward. Gold prices rose every day but Friday last week, moving almost 1% higher Wednesday following a much weaker-than-expected PMI Composite Index. Thursday’s sharp drop in durable goods orders also supported gold prices offsetting lower-than-expected initial jobless claims. Powell’s speech Friday seemed to align with market expectations with Powell reiterating the need to remain vigilant but to act carefully going forward
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Aug 25
28 August, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Spot gold prices rose last week (up almost 1.5%), rising in front of Fed Chair Powell’s Friday Jackson Hole speech with investors seemingly expecting more accommodating Fed monetary policy going forward. Gold prices rose every day but Friday last week, moving almost 1% higher Wednesday following a much weaker-than-expected PMI Composite Index. Thursday’s sharp drop in durable goods orders also supported gold prices offsetting lower-than-expected initial jobless claims. Powell’s speech Friday seemed to align with market expectations with Powell reiterating the need to remain vigilant but to act carefully going forward
Oil prices finished the week lower, breaking a streak of weekly increases. Prices moved lower the first half of the week, falling on weak Chinese economic data and concomitant demand concerns. The BoC’s move to support China’s flailing property market as well as a drawdown in China crude oil inventories pushed prices higher Thursday while a drop in oil and gas rigs for the 6th consecutive week (as reported by the Baker-Hughes Rig Count Report) bolstered prices Friday. Falling gasoline stocks, indicating strong gasoline demand, also supported prices.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Aug 18
21 August, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices finished the week lower, breaking a streak of weekly increases. Prices moved lower the first half of the week, falling on weak Chinese economic data and concomitant demand concerns. The BoC’s move to support China’s flailing property market as well as a drawdown in China crude oil inventories pushed prices higher Thursday while a drop in oil and gas rigs for the 6th consecutive week (as reported by the Baker-Hughes Rig Count Report) bolstered prices Friday. Falling gasoline stocks, indicating strong gasoline demand, also supported prices.
Another up-and-down week for oil prices with prices continuing to move higher, though only slightly. Flip-flopping demand expectations were the primary impetus for the vacillations with concerns of continued high rates dimming economic growth competing against projections (by the EIA) of strong U.S. GDP growth and forecasts of record oil demand (by the IEA). Weak Chinese economic data (plunging new bank loans and weak trade data) also increased demand concerns. While oil prices rose less than ½ percent last week, gasoline prices rose about 4% and natural gas prices gained 9%
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Aug 11
14 August, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Another up-and-down week for oil prices with prices continuing to move higher, though only slightly. Flip-flopping demand expectations were the primary impetus for the vacillations with concerns of continued high rates dimming economic growth competing against projections (by the EIA) of strong U.S. GDP growth and forecasts of record oil demand (by the IEA). Weak Chinese economic data (plunging new bank loans and weak trade data) also increased demand concerns. While oil prices rose less than ½ percent last week, gasoline prices rose about 4% and natural gas prices gained 9%
Spot gold prices moved lower last week (down 1%), reacting primarily to higher Treasury rates and a stronger U.S. dollar. While Fitch Ratings’ U.S. credit downgrade initially moved prices higher, the Treasury’s much larger-than-expected funding needs (as well as the downgrade itself) pushed Treasury yields markedly higher over Wednesday and Thursday, dampening demand for gold. Friday’s mixed jobs report, showing a smaller-than-expected increase in payrolls, ameliorated higher-rate concerns, moving rate and the U.S. dollar and, consequently, helping gold prices move higher. Platinum prices moved with gold prices while silver prices underperformed, falling 3%.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Aug 4
07 August, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Spot gold prices moved lower last week (down 1%), reacting primarily to higher Treasury rates and a stronger U.S. dollar. While Fitch Ratings’ U.S. credit downgrade initially moved prices higher, the Treasury’s much larger-than-expected funding needs (as well as the downgrade itself) pushed Treasury yields markedly higher over Wednesday and Thursday, dampening demand for gold. Friday’s mixed jobs report, showing a smaller-than-expected increase in payrolls, ameliorated higher-rate concerns, moving rate and the U.S. dollar and, consequently, helping gold prices move higher. Platinum prices moved with gold prices while silver prices underperformed, falling 3%.
A volatile week for gold prices with spot prices moving higher 0.6% through Wednesday, falling 1.4% Thursday and then gaining ¾ percent Friday to end the week almost unchanged. Increased hopes and expectations of a less aggressive Fed going forward before and following Wednesday’s FOMC decision were the primary impetus for the increase in gold prices through Wednesday. Smaller-than-expected initial jobless claims and greater-than-expected GDP growth renewed concerns of additional rate hikes (or rates remaining higher for longer), driving gold prices sharply lower. Those losses were partially recouped Friday after better-than-expected inflation data (i.e., PCE Price Index and ECI releases). Silver and platinum prices underperformed gold prices, falling 1% and 2%, respectively.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jul 28
31 July, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
A volatile week for gold prices with spot prices moving higher 0.6% through Wednesday, falling 1.4% Thursday and then gaining ¾ percent Friday to end the week almost unchanged. Increased hopes and expectations of a less aggressive Fed going forward before and following Wednesday’s FOMC decision were the primary impetus for the increase in gold prices through Wednesday. Smaller-than-expected initial jobless claims and greater-than-expected GDP growth renewed concerns of additional rate hikes (or rates remaining higher for longer), driving gold prices sharply lower. Those losses were partially recouped Friday after better-than-expected inflation data (i.e., PCE Price Index and ECI releases). Silver and platinum prices underperformed gold prices, falling 1% and 2%, respectively.
Grain prices moved higher last week predominantly due to Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea export agreement. Prices, especially Chicago wheat prices, closed the week off their Thursday’s highs, affected by favorable longer-term weather forecasts and increased estimates of Brazil second corn and U.S. spring wheat harvests. Wheat and corn prices also moved higher on Russia’s pronouncement freighters entering the Black Sea would be considered hostile and subject to attack.
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jul 21
24 July, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Grain prices moved higher last week predominantly due to Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea export agreement. Prices, especially Chicago wheat prices, closed the week off their Thursday’s highs, affected by favorable longer-term weather forecasts and increased estimates of Brazil second corn and U.S. spring wheat harvests. Wheat and corn prices also moved higher on Russia’s pronouncement freighters entering the Black Sea would be considered hostile and subject to attack.
Spot gold prices also moved higher on the week, benefiting from the same factors as the U.S. stock market and oil prices. Better-than-expected CPI (headline and core) and PPI releases and increased expectations of a Fed pivot sooner than later, markedly depreciated the U.S. dollar, pushing gold prices higher throughout the week. Gold prices slightly retreated Friday on a marginally stronger U.S. dollar
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jul 14
17 July, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Spot gold prices also moved higher on the week, benefiting from the same factors as the U.S. stock market and oil prices. Better-than-expected CPI (headline and core) and PPI releases and increased expectations of a Fed pivot sooner than later, markedly depreciated the U.S. dollar, pushing gold prices higher throughout the week. Gold prices slightly retreated Friday on a marginally stronger U.S. dollar
Spot gold prices ended the week slightly higher thanks to Friday’s mixed jobs report. Down ½ percent through Thursday on hawkish FOMC minutes (released Wednesday) and a stronger-than-expected ISM Services release Thursday, gold prices rose ¾ percent Friday following a jobs report headlining a weaker-than-expected increase in payrolls. A weaker U.S. dollar (down over ¾ percent Friday) also supported prices. Silver and platinum prices moved higher as well, outperforming gold prices over the week.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jul 7
10 July, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Spot gold prices ended the week slightly higher thanks to Friday’s mixed jobs report. Down ½ percent through Thursday on hawkish FOMC minutes (released Wednesday) and a stronger-than-expected ISM Services release Thursday, gold prices rose ¾ percent Friday following a jobs report headlining a weaker-than-expected increase in payrolls. A weaker U.S. dollar (down over ¾ percent Friday) also supported prices. Silver and platinum prices moved higher as well, outperforming gold prices over the week.
Oil prices moved higher last week propelled by sharply falling inventory levels and stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data. The increase came even as the Fed, ECB and BoE reiterated the need for higher rates for longer. Demand expectations rose, however, occurring as U.S. inflation fell more than expected (the PCE Price Index release Friday was lower-than-expected) with economic data indicating both a strong job and housing market and robust consumer confidence. Natural gas prices end the week about 2% lower but well off intraweek lows.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jun 30
03 July, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices moved higher last week propelled by sharply falling inventory levels and stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data. The increase came even as the Fed, ECB and BoE reiterated the need for higher rates for longer. Demand expectations rose, however, occurring as U.S. inflation fell more than expected (the PCE Price Index release Friday was lower-than-expected) with economic data indicating both a strong job and housing market and robust consumer confidence. Natural gas prices end the week about 2% lower but well off intraweek lows.
Spot gold prices moved about 2% lower last week reacting to a strong housing starts number and Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish testimony before congress Wednesday and Thursday. The BoE’s surprise 50bp rate hike added to concerns of higher rates and failed to weaken the U.S. dollar, also pressuring gold prices lower. Silver and platinum prices were sharply lower, falling 7% and 6%, respectively, on the week, moving lower with gold and base metal prices.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jun 23
26 June, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Spot gold prices moved about 2% lower last week reacting to a strong housing starts number and Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish testimony before congress Wednesday and Thursday. The BoE’s surprise 50bp rate hike added to concerns of higher rates and failed to weaken the U.S. dollar, also pressuring gold prices lower. Silver and platinum prices were sharply lower, falling 7% and 6%, respectively, on the week, moving lower with gold and base metal prices.
Base metal prices moved higher last week primarily due to Chinese rate cuts and additional fiscal stimulus. Lower Monday on Fed rate-hike and Chinese demand concerns, copper prices moved higher the remainder of the week, primarily supported by BoC borrowing rate cuts and Chinese government fiscal stimulus. Relatively strong U.S. economic data combined with a markedly weaker U.S. dollar also supported base metal prices.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jun 16
20 June, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Base metal prices moved higher last week primarily due to Chinese rate cuts and additional fiscal stimulus. Lower Monday on Fed rate-hike and Chinese demand concerns, copper prices moved higher the remainder of the week, primarily supported by BoC borrowing rate cuts and Chinese government fiscal stimulus. Relatively strong U.S. economic data combined with a markedly weaker U.S. dollar also supported base metal prices.
Through mid-week, oil prices moved higher, supported primarily by Saudi Arabia’s plans to reduce output another 1 million bpd beginning in July. Much greater-than-expected builds in U.S. gasoline and diesel/heating oil inventories combined with weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data helped pull prices lower the remainder of the week with WTI crude oil prices finishing the week down over 2%. Reports Thursday of a U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement also pressured prices lower.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jun 9
12 June, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Through mid-week, oil prices moved higher, supported primarily by Saudi Arabia’s plans to reduce output another 1 million bpd beginning in July. Much greater-than-expected builds in U.S. gasoline and diesel/heating oil inventories combined with weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data helped pull prices lower the remainder of the week with WTI crude oil prices finishing the week down over 2%. Reports Thursday of a U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement also pressured prices lower.
Oil prices ended the week slightly over 1% lower but rebounded sharply Thursday and Friday from steep declines registered Tuesday and Wednesday. Weaker-than-expected Chinese manufacturing activity and debt ceiling resolution concerns drove WTI crude oil prices over 6% lower through Wednesday. Those losses, however, were mostly reversed Thursday and Friday following passage by the House and Senate of the debt ceiling bill, a stronger-than-expected Caixin/S&P Global PMI release and growing expectations of a pause in Fed rate hikes.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jun 2
05 June, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices ended the week slightly over 1% lower but rebounded sharply Thursday and Friday from steep declines registered Tuesday and Wednesday. Weaker-than-expected Chinese manufacturing activity and debt ceiling resolution concerns drove WTI crude oil prices over 6% lower through Wednesday. Those losses, however, were mostly reversed Thursday and Friday following passage by the House and Senate of the debt ceiling bill, a stronger-than-expected Caixin/S&P Global PMI release and growing expectations of a pause in Fed rate hikes.
Oil prices ended the week higher, rising every day but one during the week. Rising gasoline prices (in front of Memorial Day Weekend) and falling oil, gasoline and distillate inventories helped move prices higher throughout the week. Comments from Saudi Arabia’s energy minister warning short sellers of potential “pain” and Friday’s report of progress in debt ceiling talks also contributed to gains. Prices fell Thursday (the only down day) following comments from Russian officials expressing doubts regarding additional production cutbacks (seemingly contradicting comments from Saudi’s energy minister). Natural gas prices reversed the previous week’s sharp gains, falling almost 11% amidst strong production combined with weak weather-related demand.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: May 26
30 May, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices ended the week higher, rising every day but one during the week. Rising gasoline prices (in front of Memorial Day Weekend) and falling oil, gasoline and distillate inventories helped move prices higher throughout the week. Comments from Saudi Arabia’s energy minister warning short sellers of potential “pain” and Friday’s report of progress in debt ceiling talks also contributed to gains. Prices fell Thursday (the only down day) following comments from Russian officials expressing doubts regarding additional production cutbacks (seemingly contradicting comments from Saudi’s energy minister). Natural gas prices reversed the previous week’s sharp gains, falling almost 11% amidst strong production combined with weak weather-related demand.
Gold prices, too, mainly moved with debt ceiling resolution expectations. Higher Monday on debt ceiling concerns and a weaker U.S. dollar, gold prices fell Tuesday through Thursday on news of progress in debt ceiling talks but also on hawkish Fed comments and decent economic news. Gold prices shot higher Friday (up 1%) following news the debt ceiling talks had been paused. Gold and silver prices ended lower on the week while spot platinum prices closed the week about 1% higher.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: May 19
22 May, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Gold prices, too, mainly moved with debt ceiling resolution expectations. Higher Monday on debt ceiling concerns and a weaker U.S. dollar, gold prices fell Tuesday through Thursday on news of progress in debt ceiling talks but also on hawkish Fed comments and decent economic news. Gold prices shot higher Friday (up 1%) following news the debt ceiling talks had been paused. Gold and silver prices ended lower on the week while spot platinum prices closed the week about 1% higher.
Spot gold prices also moved higher early in the week, climbing just under 1% through Tuesday on U.S. banking and recession concerns. Tighter credit conditions, as reported by the Fed, increased expectations the Fed would be more likely to ease this year also supported prices. Despite Wednesday’s slightly better-than-expected CPI release, expectations of the Fed easing later this year fell with sentiment influenced by the stubbornly high level of inflation. Friday’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report showing rising inflation expectations added to this sentiment, driving Treasury rates and the dollar higher while pushing gold prices lower.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: May 12
15 May, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Spot gold prices also moved higher early in the week, climbing just under 1% through Tuesday on U.S. banking and recession concerns. Tighter credit conditions, as reported by the Fed, increased expectations the Fed would be more likely to ease this year also supported prices. Despite Wednesday’s slightly better-than-expected CPI release, expectations of the Fed easing later this year fell with sentiment influenced by the stubbornly high level of inflation. Friday’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report showing rising inflation expectations added to this sentiment, driving Treasury rates and the dollar higher while pushing gold prices lower.
Spot gold prices moved oppositely to stock prices last week. Rallying on banking system, U.S. default and recession concerns, gold prices rose over 3% through Thursday. About half those gains were removed Friday following a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report and sharply lessened banking system concerns. For the week, spot gold prices rose just under 1.5% while spot silver prices gained about 2.5%. Platinum and palladium prices fell about 1%,
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: May 5
08 May, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Spot gold prices moved oppositely to stock prices last week. Rallying on banking system, U.S. default and recession concerns, gold prices rose over 3% through Thursday. About half those gains were removed Friday following a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report and sharply lessened banking system concerns. For the week, spot gold prices rose just under 1.5% while spot silver prices gained about 2.5%. Platinum and palladium prices fell about 1%,
Copper prices end the week lower, falling through Tuesday on weak Chinese demand, increased supplies and a stronger U.S. dollar. Prices then partially rebounded the remainder of the weak supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, Chinese stimulus plans and, for the most part, an as-expected PCE Price Index release. Other base metal prices followed copper prices lower.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Apr 28
28 April, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Copper prices end the week lower, falling through Tuesday on weak Chinese demand, increased supplies and a stronger U.S. dollar. Prices then partially rebounded the remainder of the weak supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, Chinese stimulus plans and, for the most part, an as-expected PCE Price Index release. Other base metal prices followed copper prices lower.
A volatile week for gold prices with spot gold prices alternatively falling and rising at least ½ percent each day. Fluctuating expectations of future Fed action and the possible concomitant results on the U.S. economy see-sawed both Treasury rates and the level of the U.S. dollar throughout the week and, as a result, affected gold prices likewise. Spot gold prices, unchanged through Thursday, fell 1% Friday following a much stronger-than-expected S&P Global Composite PMI release. Silver prices fared the same as gold prices. Platinum prices finished the week 8% higher, affected by South African production disruptions due to power outages.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Apr 21
24 April, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
A volatile week for gold prices with spot gold prices alternatively falling and rising at least ½ percent each day. Fluctuating expectations of future Fed action and the possible concomitant results on the U.S. economy see-sawed both Treasury rates and the level of the U.S. dollar throughout the week and, as a result, affected gold prices likewise. Spot gold prices, unchanged through Thursday, fell 1% Friday following a much stronger-than-expected S&P Global Composite PMI release. Silver prices fared the same as gold prices. Platinum prices finished the week 8% higher, affected by South African production disruptions due to power outages.
Spot gold prices ended the week lower but only after moving sharply lower Friday. Prices started the week lower, pressured by the previous Friday’s resilient job report adding to expectations the Fed would continue to tighten and raise rates 25bps in May. Those expectations lessened through Thursday as lower-than-expected CPI and PPI releases provided reason for increased expectations of a Fed pivot. Gold prices (up 1.5% through Thursday), however, fell sharply Friday following hawkish Fed officials’ comments.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Apr 14
17 April, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Spot gold prices ended the week lower but only after moving sharply lower Friday. Prices started the week lower, pressured by the previous Friday’s resilient job report adding to expectations the Fed would continue to tighten and raise rates 25bps in May. Those expectations lessened through Thursday as lower-than-expected CPI and PPI releases provided reason for increased expectations of a Fed pivot. Gold prices (up 1.5% through Thursday), however, fell sharply Friday following hawkish Fed officials’ comments.
Powered by weaker-than-expected economic data, spot gold prices moved 2% higher last week, closing above $2000/Ounce Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. A 2-year low in job openings, sharply declining factory activity and larger-than-expected initial jobless claims increased expectations of less aggressive Fed monetary policy, strongly supporting gold prices.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Apr 7
10 April, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Powered by weaker-than-expected economic data, spot gold prices moved 2% higher last week, closing above $2000/Ounce Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. A 2-year low in job openings, sharply declining factory activity and larger-than-expected initial jobless claims increased expectations of less aggressive Fed monetary policy, strongly supporting gold prices.
Gold prices moved slightly lower again last week, pressured by diminished banking-sector concerns and a mixed PCE Price Index release Friday. See-sawing throughout the week, gold prices through Thursday were up less than ¼ percent. Friday’s PCE Price Index release, coming in below expectations, initially moved gold prices higher but emerging concerns surrounding core and services prices (remaining on the higher side) pushed spot prices about ½ percent lower on the day and, as a result, for the week as well. Silver prices moved noticeably higher, gaining 4% and platinum prices rose 2%, both following base metal prices higher.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Mar 31
03 April, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Gold prices moved slightly lower again last week, pressured by diminished banking-sector concerns and a mixed PCE Price Index release Friday. See-sawing throughout the week, gold prices through Thursday were up less than ¼ percent. Friday’s PCE Price Index release, coming in below expectations, initially moved gold prices higher but emerging concerns surrounding core and services prices (remaining on the higher side) pushed spot prices about ½ percent lower on the day and, as a result, for the week as well. Silver prices moved noticeably higher, gaining 4% and platinum prices rose 2%, both following base metal prices higher.
Gold prices ended lower for the week (about ½ percent lower) but significantly off lows sent Tuesday. Down almost 2.5% on diminished banking concerns Tuesday, gold prices rallied following an as-an expected FOMC rate hike and despite hawkish Fed Chair Powell comments. Powell, following the announcement in his press conference, stated he did not expect the Fed to ease this year. Markets, however, thought otherwise, pricing in at least 1 rate decrease in 2023, moving gold prices markedly higher Wednesday and Thursday. Prices fell Friday perhaps on increased risk-on sentiment and on a stronger U.S. dollar.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Mar 24
27 March, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Gold prices ended lower for the week (about ½ percent lower) but significantly off lows sent Tuesday. Down almost 2.5% on diminished banking concerns Tuesday, gold prices rallied following an as-an expected FOMC rate hike and despite hawkish Fed Chair Powell comments. Powell, following the announcement in his press conference, stated he did not expect the Fed to ease this year. Markets, however, thought otherwise, pricing in at least 1 rate decrease in 2023, moving gold prices markedly higher Wednesday and Thursday. Prices fell Friday perhaps on increased risk-on sentiment and on a stronger U.S. dollar.
Gold and silver prices moved sharply higher last week powered by greatly increased banking-system concerns (safe-haven demand) and growing expectations the Fed would refrain from raising rates at this week’s FOMC meeting. Spot gold prices rose nearly 6% last week. Spot silver prices moved more markedly, rising almost 11% on the week.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Mar 17
20 March, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Gold and silver prices moved sharply higher last week powered by greatly increased banking-system concerns (safe-haven demand) and growing expectations the Fed would refrain from raising rates at this week’s FOMC meeting. Spot gold prices rose nearly 6% last week. Spot silver prices moved more markedly, rising almost 11% on the week.
Gold prices moved higher last week, overcoming an early week drop, in the face of changing Fed policy expectations. Down over 2% through Tuesday, predominantly due to hawkish testimony by Fed Chair Powell, gold prices rose sharply Thursday and Friday following news of Silicon Valley Bank’s distress (Thursday) and then failure on Friday. Growing expectations the Fed would need to dial back its tightening plans in the face of uncertainty surrounding the banking industry as well as on a dovish jobs report Friday, pushed 10-year Treasury rates markedly lower and weakened the U.S. dollar, both supportive of gold prices.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Mar 10
13 March, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Gold prices moved higher last week, overcoming an early week drop, in the face of changing Fed policy expectations. Down over 2% through Tuesday, predominantly due to hawkish testimony by Fed Chair Powell, gold prices rose sharply Thursday and Friday following news of Silicon Valley Bank’s distress (Thursday) and then failure on Friday. Growing expectations the Fed would need to dial back its tightening plans in the face of uncertainty surrounding the banking industry as well as on a dovish jobs report Friday, pushed 10-year Treasury rates markedly lower and weakened the U.S. dollar, both supportive of gold prices.
Base metal prices moved higher last week supported by expectations of increasing Chinese demand, a weaker U.S. dollar and hopes of a more restrained Fed. Chinese economic data showing much stronger-than-expected economic activity added to expectations of growing demand from China as did stimulus expectations surrounding the weekend’s “2-session meetings”.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Mar 3
06 March, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Base metal prices moved higher last week supported by expectations of increasing Chinese demand, a weaker U.S. dollar and hopes of a more restrained Fed. Chinese economic data showing much stronger-than-expected economic activity added to expectations of growing demand from China as did stimulus expectations surrounding the weekend’s “2-session meetings”.
WTI Crude oil prices ended the week slightly lower, belying intraweek volatility fostered by competing demand and supply concerns. Sharply lower Tuesday, prices reacted to growing concerns of Fed-induced demand destruction in the face of a seemingly resilient job market and economy. FOMC minutes, released Wednesday, offered no substantive information leaving markets waiting for Friday’s PCE Price Index release. Nonetheless, despite falling initial jobless claims Thursday and a higher-than-expected PCE Price Index release Friday, crude oil prices rose almost 2% Thursday and then another 1% Friday on reports Russia planned to significantly increase production cutbacks in March. Adding to upward price pressures were expectations of increased Chinese demand.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Feb 24
27 February, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
WTI Crude oil prices ended the week slightly lower, belying intraweek volatility fostered by competing demand and supply concerns. Sharply lower Tuesday, prices reacted to growing concerns of Fed-induced demand destruction in the face of a seemingly resilient job market and economy. FOMC minutes, released Wednesday, offered no substantive information leaving markets waiting for Friday’s PCE Price Index release. Nonetheless, despite falling initial jobless claims Thursday and a higher-than-expected PCE Price Index release Friday, crude oil prices rose almost 2% Thursday and then another 1% Friday on reports Russia planned to significantly increase production cutbacks in March. Adding to upward price pressures were expectations of increased Chinese demand.
Spot gold prices moved lower last week as well. Tuesday’s CPI release showing slowing inflation combined with Wednesday’s strong retail sales report revived concerns of higher rates with growing expectations the Fed would continue to tighten and leave rates higher longer than currently expected. Down 1.5% through Thursday, gold prices moved higher over the last 2 days of the week on increased safe-haven demand following decent stock market declines. Silver and platinum prices moved lower as well.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Feb 17
21 February, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Spot gold prices moved lower last week as well. Tuesday’s CPI release showing slowing inflation combined with Wednesday’s strong retail sales report revived concerns of higher rates with growing expectations the Fed would continue to tighten and leave rates higher longer than currently expected. Down 1.5% through Thursday, gold prices moved higher over the last 2 days of the week on increased safe-haven demand following decent stock market declines. Silver and platinum prices moved lower as well.
Spot gold prices finished the week almost unchanged. Hopes of looser Fed monetary policy, supported by the investor interpretation of Fed Chair Powell’s comments Tuesday, moved gold prices ½ percent higher through Wednesday. That sentiment changed Thursday, directly affected by Fed officials’ comments calling for continued restrictive monetary policy, sending spot gold prices ¾ percent lower despite the U.S. dollar slightly weakening. Prices moved higher Friday perhaps on renewed expectations of a more benign Fed with the market preparing for this week’s CPI release. Silver and platinum prices were down 1.5% and 2.5%, respectively, falling with base metal prices.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Feb 10
13 February, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Spot gold prices finished the week almost unchanged. Hopes of looser Fed monetary policy, supported by the investor interpretation of Fed Chair Powell’s comments Tuesday, moved gold prices ½ percent higher through Wednesday. That sentiment changed Thursday, directly affected by Fed officials’ comments calling for continued restrictive monetary policy, sending spot gold prices ¾ percent lower despite the U.S. dollar slightly weakening. Prices moved higher Friday perhaps on renewed expectations of a more benign Fed with the market preparing for this week’s CPI release. Silver and platinum prices were down 1.5% and 2.5%, respectively, falling with base metal prices.
Bolstered by hopes of less restrictive Fed monetary policy, gold prices edged higher through Tuesday. Wednesday’s as-expected 25bp rate increase accompanied by comments from Fed Chair Powell noting progress fighting inflation, pushed prices over 1% higher. After reaching a 9-month higher early in the day, gold prices fell sharply Thursday reacting to much smaller-than-expected initial jobless claims, a sharply strengthening U.S. dollar and, perhaps, to 50bp rate increases by both the BoE and ECB. Friday’s much stronger-than-expected jobs report increased expectations of continued aggressive Fed monetary policy, pushing gold prices another 2.5% lower. Gold prices, down 3.3% on the week, outperformed silver prices which fell over 5%. Platinum prices ended the week down 3.3% as well.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Feb 3
06 February, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Bolstered by hopes of less restrictive Fed monetary policy, gold prices edged higher through Tuesday. Wednesday’s as-expected 25bp rate increase accompanied by comments from Fed Chair Powell noting progress fighting inflation, pushed prices over 1% higher. After reaching a 9-month higher early in the day, gold prices fell sharply Thursday reacting to much smaller-than-expected initial jobless claims, a sharply strengthening U.S. dollar and, perhaps, to 50bp rate increases by both the BoE and ECB. Friday’s much stronger-than-expected jobs report increased expectations of continued aggressive Fed monetary policy, pushing gold prices another 2.5% lower. Gold prices, down 3.3% on the week, outperformed silver prices which fell over 5%. Platinum prices ended the week down 3.3% as well.
Oil prices moved lower last week pressured by global recession concerns and increased Russian production. Unchanged to slightly higher Monday on expectations of increased demand from China’s reopening, prices moved markedly lower Tuesday on expectations of a strong build in U.S. oil inventories and continued contraction in U.S. economic activity. Prices rebounded partially Thursday, supported by stronger-than-expected economic data only to see those gains and more erased by greatly increased Russian oil production (as indicated by a significant increase of Baltic seaport tanker loadings).
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jan 27
30 January, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices moved lower last week pressured by global recession concerns and increased Russian production. Unchanged to slightly higher Monday on expectations of increased demand from China’s reopening, prices moved markedly lower Tuesday on expectations of a strong build in U.S. oil inventories and continued contraction in U.S. economic activity. Prices rebounded partially Thursday, supported by stronger-than-expected economic data only to see those gains and more erased by greatly increased Russian oil production (as indicated by a significant increase of Baltic seaport tanker loadings).
Oil prices rose last week with expectations of revived Chinese demand overcoming hawkish Fed comments, another large build in U.S. oil inventories and weak U.S. economic data. A decline in the U.S. rig count as reported by Baker Hughes and the IEA’s increased oil demand forecast also supported prices. Natural gas prices, down 5% on the week, suffered from warm weather, moderate demand and increased inventories.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jan 20
23 January, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices rose last week with expectations of revived Chinese demand overcoming hawkish Fed comments, another large build in U.S. oil inventories and weak U.S. economic data. A decline in the U.S. rig count as reported by Baker Hughes and the IEA’s increased oil demand forecast also supported prices. Natural gas prices, down 5% on the week, suffered from warm weather, moderate demand and increased inventories.
Oil prices sharply increased last week, reversing most of the previous week’s losses. The primary driving force behind the gain was China’s reopening of its borders. The reopening along with increased Chinese crude imports increased demand expectations pushing prices higher. Also buoying prices were the EIA’s forecast of record global petroleum consumption for 202, growing expectations of easing Fed monetary policy following Thursday’s slightly better-than-expected U.S. CPI release and a weaker U.S. dollar.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jan 13
17 January, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices sharply increased last week, reversing most of the previous week’s losses. The primary driving force behind the gain was China’s reopening of its borders. The reopening along with increased Chinese crude imports increased demand expectations pushing prices higher. Also buoying prices were the EIA’s forecast of record global petroleum consumption for 202, growing expectations of easing Fed monetary policy following Thursday’s slightly better-than-expected U.S. CPI release and a weaker U.S. dollar.
Gold prices rose last week, increasing every day but Thursday as expectations increased the Fed may need to lower rates sooner than expected. Contracting U.S. manufacturing and services activity as shown by Manufacturing PMI released Tuesday and the ISM Manufacturing Index released Wednesday supported expectations of a more benign Fed moving forward. While Thursday’s lower-than-expected initial jobless claims number weakened those expectations (pushing gold prices lower), Friday’s job report showing weakening wage pressures, revived those expectations propelling gold prices almost 2% higher. Silver prices, up over 2.5% Friday, ended the week down about ½ percent. Platinum prices performed similarly to gold prices.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jan 6
09 January, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Gold prices rose last week, increasing every day but Thursday as expectations increased the Fed may need to lower rates sooner than expected. Contracting U.S. manufacturing and services activity as shown by Manufacturing PMI released Tuesday and the ISM Manufacturing Index released Wednesday supported expectations of a more benign Fed moving forward. While Thursday’s lower-than-expected initial jobless claims number weakened those expectations (pushing gold prices lower), Friday’s job report showing weakening wage pressures, revived those expectations propelling gold prices almost 2% higher. Silver prices, up over 2.5% Friday, ended the week down about ½ percent. Platinum prices performed similarly to gold prices.
Precious metal prices moved higher last week buoyed by a weaker U.S. dollar and increased demand expectations resulting from China’s easing Covid curbs. Silver and platinum prices moved higher with gold prices but with larger gains on the week. For the year spot gold prices were down marginally, falling 0.2%. spot silver prices increased 0.8% and spot platinum prices climbed 11.1%.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Dec 30
03 January, 2023 | Jeff Klearman
Precious metal prices moved higher last week buoyed by a weaker U.S. dollar and increased demand expectations resulting from China’s easing Covid curbs. Silver and platinum prices moved higher with gold prices but with larger gains on the week. For the year spot gold prices were down marginally, falling 0.2%. spot silver prices increased 0.8% and spot platinum prices climbed 11.1%.
Gold prices ended the week slightly higher powered mainly by a sharply weaker dollar following the BoJ’s decision to widen the range on the 10-year rate 25bps to +/- 0.5%. Nearly 2% higher Tuesday following the BoJ announcement, gold prices fell south of 1% Thursday after a greater-than-expected revision to U.S. Q3 GDP and continued low level of initial jobless claims. Silver and platinum prices moved higher with gold prices but with larger gains on the week.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Dec 23 (1)
27 December, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Gold prices ended the week slightly higher powered mainly by a sharply weaker dollar following the BoJ’s decision to widen the range on the 10-year rate 25bps to +/- 0.5%. Nearly 2% higher Tuesday following the BoJ announcement, gold prices fell south of 1% Thursday after a greater-than-expected revision to U.S. Q3 GDP and continued low level of initial jobless claims. Silver and platinum prices moved higher with gold prices but with larger gains on the week.
Oil prices ended the week 4% higher but reversed considerable early-in-the-week gains Thursday and Friday. Higher on increased hopes of a Fed pivot, a lower-than-expected CPI release, a longer-than-expected Keystone pipeline shutdown and IEA and OPEC forecasts calling for increased demand next year, WTI crude oil prices rose over 8% through Wednesday. Those gains were halved over the course of Thursday and Friday following hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Dec 16
19 December, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices ended the week 4% higher but reversed considerable early-in-the-week gains Thursday and Friday. Higher on increased hopes of a Fed pivot, a lower-than-expected CPI release, a longer-than-expected Keystone pipeline shutdown and IEA and OPEC forecasts calling for increased demand next year, WTI crude oil prices rose over 8% through Wednesday. Those gains were halved over the course of Thursday and Friday following hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde.
Spot gold prices edged slightly lower last week, recovering from a sharp selloff Monday. Monday’s move lower was precipitated by a much stronger-than-expected ISM Services Index release, spurring renewed expectations of continued aggressive Fed monetary policy, sharply strengthening the U.S. dollar. Gold prices moved higher the remainder of the week, however, with Fed policy expectations slowly reversing (from Monday’s) and with the U.S. dollar weakening. Silver and platinum prices moved similarly to gold prices but ended the week with larger gains.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Dec 9
12 December, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Spot gold prices edged slightly lower last week, recovering from a sharp selloff Monday. Monday’s move lower was precipitated by a much stronger-than-expected ISM Services Index release, spurring renewed expectations of continued aggressive Fed monetary policy, sharply strengthening the U.S. dollar. Gold prices moved higher the remainder of the week, however, with Fed policy expectations slowly reversing (from Monday’s) and with the U.S. dollar weakening. Silver and platinum prices moved similarly to gold prices but ended the week with larger gains.
Base metal prices moved higher as well last week buoyed by Fed Chair Powell’s dovish comments Wednesday and on reports the Chinese would be loosening Covid restrictions following widespread protests. A weaker U.S. dollar also supported prices while Friday’s strong employment report appeared to support prices by adding to demand expectations. Nickel prices ended the week with double digit gains (up 14%).
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Dec 2
05 December, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Base metal prices moved higher as well last week buoyed by Fed Chair Powell’s dovish comments Wednesday and on reports the Chinese would be loosening Covid restrictions following widespread protests. A weaker U.S. dollar also supported prices while Friday’s strong employment report appeared to support prices by adding to demand expectations. Nickel prices ended the week with double digit gains (up 14%).
Oil prices moved lower again last week affected by Chinese demand concerns due to a surge in Covid cases and by reports of G7 countries and the EU weakening sanctions on Russian oil exports. Crude oil prices fell sharply intraday Monday following reports of Saudi Arabia considering increasing production but then recovered to almost unchanged as those reports were denied. Prices rose Tuesday after OPEC+ said it was considering additional production cuts but prices fell the remainder of the week on news of less restrictive G7 and EU sanctions and growing concerns of continued weak Chinese demand resulting from Covid-related restrictions. Natural gas prices rose 9%, propelled by frigid temperatures and winter storms in the Pacific Northwest and supply/transport issues in the Northeast.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Nov 25
28 November, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices moved lower again last week affected by Chinese demand concerns due to a surge in Covid cases and by reports of G7 countries and the EU weakening sanctions on Russian oil exports. Crude oil prices fell sharply intraday Monday following reports of Saudi Arabia considering increasing production but then recovered to almost unchanged as those reports were denied. Prices rose Tuesday after OPEC+ said it was considering additional production cuts but prices fell the remainder of the week on news of less restrictive G7 and EU sanctions and growing concerns of continued weak Chinese demand resulting from Covid-related restrictions. Natural gas prices rose 9%, propelled by frigid temperatures and winter storms in the Pacific Northwest and supply/transport issues in the Northeast.
Copper prices fell every day last week, registering a 6% decline as weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data, rising Chinese Covid cases and a stronger U.S. dollar pushed prices lower. Hopes of a move away from a zero-Covid policy in China were diminished with a spike in new cases as were hopes of a less aggressive Fed following hawkish comments throughout the week by Fed officials. Nickel and aluminum prices followed copper’s lead, falling 6% and 1%, respectively.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Nov 18
21 November, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Copper prices fell every day last week, registering a 6% decline as weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data, rising Chinese Covid cases and a stronger U.S. dollar pushed prices lower. Hopes of a move away from a zero-Covid policy in China were diminished with a spike in new cases as were hopes of a less aggressive Fed following hawkish comments throughout the week by Fed officials. Nickel and aluminum prices followed copper’s lead, falling 6% and 1%, respectively.
Spot Gold prices advanced almost 5.5% last week, pushed higher through Tuesday on a weaker U.S. dollar. Prices moved slightly lower Wednesday on a stronger U.S. dollar but moved sharply higher Thursday and Friday as the U.S. dollar markedly weakened following a better-than-expected CPI report. Silver and platinum prices followed gold prices higher.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Nov 11
14 November, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Spot Gold prices advanced almost 5.5% last week, pushed higher through Tuesday on a weaker U.S. dollar. Prices moved slightly lower Wednesday on a stronger U.S. dollar but moved sharply higher Thursday and Friday as the U.S. dollar markedly weakened following a better-than-expected CPI report. Silver and platinum prices followed gold prices higher.
A volatile week for base metal prices, buffeted by quickly changing Fed policy expectations and China Covid policies reports. Lower Monday on increased Chinese Covid cases and weaker-than-expected Chinese manufacturing activity, prices rebounded Tuesday on unsubstantiated reports of a Chinese Covid policy change and hopes of a less aggressive Fed. Wednesday’s remarks by Fed Chairman Powell knocked prices lower through Thursday only to see prices increase sharply on a mixed U.S. employment report and re-emerging reports of a major change to Chinese Covid policy. Copper prices, for example, rose 7.5% Friday to end the week up 7.5%.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Nov 4
07 November, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
A volatile week for base metal prices, buffeted by quickly changing Fed policy expectations and China Covid policies reports. Lower Monday on increased Chinese Covid cases and weaker-than-expected Chinese manufacturing activity, prices rebounded Tuesday on unsubstantiated reports of a Chinese Covid policy change and hopes of a less aggressive Fed. Wednesday’s remarks by Fed Chairman Powell knocked prices lower through Thursday only to see prices increase sharply on a mixed U.S. employment report and re-emerging reports of a major change to Chinese Covid policy. Copper prices, for example, rose 7.5% Friday to end the week up 7.5%.
Oil prices moved higher last week benefiting from a weaker U.S. dollar, record U.S. exports and high refinery operating rates. Europe’s ban on Russian oil imports beginning next month also contributed to higher prices. WTI oil prices, up nearly 5% through Thursday, fell almost 1.5% Friday on news of expanding Chinese Covid restrictions. Natural gas prices, up close to 12% through Tuesday on frigid temperatures in parts of the U.S., fell the remainder of the week with warmer forecasted weather for the eastern U.S. to end the week up 3.5%. LNG exports are set to increase next month as a major LNG facility resumes operation after a long shutdown due to a fire.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Oct 28
31 October, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices moved higher last week benefiting from a weaker U.S. dollar, record U.S. exports and high refinery operating rates. Europe’s ban on Russian oil imports beginning next month also contributed to higher prices. WTI oil prices, up nearly 5% through Thursday, fell almost 1.5% Friday on news of expanding Chinese Covid restrictions. Natural gas prices, up close to 12% through Tuesday on frigid temperatures in parts of the U.S., fell the remainder of the week with warmer forecasted weather for the eastern U.S. to end the week up 3.5%. LNG exports are set to increase next month as a major LNG facility resumes operation after a long shutdown due to a fire.
Gold prices moved higher last week, increasing early in the week, falling mid-week and then rallying Friday. A weakening U.S. dollar was the main impetus for higher gold prices Monday and Tuesday though that dynamic changed Wednesday and Thursday with hawkish comments from Fed officials driving up expectations of continued large rate increases. Those comments propelled 10-year Treasury rates to 14-year highs and significantly strengthened the U.S. dollar, pushing gold and other precious metal prices lower. Friday’s move higher in gold prices also resulted from comments from Fed officials but this time from a dovish perspective. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President May Daly opined the Fed should strongly consider slowing the pace of rate hikes to avoid a pronounced economic slowdown. Those comments noticeably weakened the U.S. dollar, driving gold prices almost 2% higher Friday.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Oct 21
24 October, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Gold prices moved higher last week, increasing early in the week, falling mid-week and then rallying Friday. A weakening U.S. dollar was the main impetus for higher gold prices Monday and Tuesday though that dynamic changed Wednesday and Thursday with hawkish comments from Fed officials driving up expectations of continued large rate increases. Those comments propelled 10-year Treasury rates to 14-year highs and significantly strengthened the U.S. dollar, pushing gold and other precious metal prices lower. Friday’s move higher in gold prices also resulted from comments from Fed officials but this time from a dovish perspective. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President May Daly opined the Fed should strongly consider slowing the pace of rate hikes to avoid a pronounced economic slowdown. Those comments noticeably weakened the U.S. dollar, driving gold prices almost 2% higher Friday.
Except for Thursday, oil prices declined every single day last week. Growing expectations of central-bank induced recessions – exacerbated by Thursday’s worse-than-expected U.S. CPI release – combined with increased Covid cases in China pushed WTI crude oil prices 7% lower on the week. Thursday’s uptick in prices occurred as the EIA reported a much larger-than-expected drop in distillate inventories just before the onset of increased winter heating oil demand. A stronger U.S. dollar also contributed to lower prices.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Oct 14
17 October, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Except for Thursday, oil prices declined every single day last week. Growing expectations of central-bank induced recessions – exacerbated by Thursday’s worse-than-expected U.S. CPI release – combined with increased Covid cases in China pushed WTI crude oil prices 7% lower on the week. Thursday’s uptick in prices occurred as the EIA reported a much larger-than-expected drop in distillate inventories just before the onset of increased winter heating oil demand. A stronger U.S. dollar also contributed to lower prices.
Up nearly 9% through Tuesday on expectations of deep OPEC+ production cutbacks, WTI crude oil prices rallied sharply the remainder of the week following Wednesday’s OPEC+ decision to cut production by 2 million barrels per day. Wednesday’s EIA report showing lower-than-expected oil, gasoline and distillate inventory levels also spurred prices higher. Heating oil prices rose more sharply than WTI prices, climbing almost 25% higher on the week. WTI and Brent cruded oil prices ended the week 17% and 15% higher, respectively.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Oct 7
10 October, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Up nearly 9% through Tuesday on expectations of deep OPEC+ production cutbacks, WTI crude oil prices rallied sharply the remainder of the week following Wednesday’s OPEC+ decision to cut production by 2 million barrels per day. Wednesday’s EIA report showing lower-than-expected oil, gasoline and distillate inventory levels also spurred prices higher. Heating oil prices rose more sharply than WTI prices, climbing almost 25% higher on the week. WTI and Brent cruded oil prices ended the week 17% and 15% higher, respectively.
Gold and silver prices moved higher last week supported both by a weaker U.S. dollar and increased haven demand. Wednesday’s BoE intervention to stem the fall in longer-dated UK government bond prices increased concerns of a brewing UK financial crisis, potentially increasing demand for gold and silver as a haven investment as did Russia’s annexing of occupied Ukraine territories.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Sep 30
03 October, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Gold and silver prices moved higher last week supported both by a weaker U.S. dollar and increased haven demand. Wednesday’s BoE intervention to stem the fall in longer-dated UK government bond prices increased concerns of a brewing UK financial crisis, potentially increasing demand for gold and silver as a haven investment as did Russia’s annexing of occupied Ukraine territories.
WTI crude oil prices ended the week sharply lower. Down 1.5% through Thursday on slowing-demand concerns, prices dropped nearly 6% Friday as the U.S. dollar sharply strengthened and on falling euro zone business activity. Supply concerns stemming from sizeable OPEC+ production shortfalls and Russia’s mobilization of reserves were pushed to the wayside on growing expectations of falling demand resulting from aggressive central bank tightening. Natural gas prices dropped more than 10% last week, pushed lower by increased production and inventory levels and falling demand due to cooler (less hot) weather.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Sep 23
26 September, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
WTI crude oil prices ended the week sharply lower. Down 1.5% through Thursday on slowing-demand concerns, prices dropped nearly 6% Friday as the U.S. dollar sharply strengthened and on falling euro zone business activity. Supply concerns stemming from sizeable OPEC+ production shortfalls and Russia’s mobilization of reserves were pushed to the wayside on growing expectations of falling demand resulting from aggressive central bank tightening. Natural gas prices dropped more than 10% last week, pushed lower by increased production and inventory levels and falling demand due to cooler (less hot) weather.
WTI crude oil prices, about 2% higher through Wednesday, ended the weak almost 2% lower. Initially higher on EU plans to implement price caps on Russian oil, increased doubts of an Iran nuclear deal and fallout from a possible rail workers strike, prices moved lower Thursday with the rail workers strike averted and renewed concerns of slowing economic growth. Prices moved slightly higher Friday following news of an Iraq oil spill hindering Iraqi oil exports.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Sep 16
19 September, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
WTI crude oil prices, about 2% higher through Wednesday, ended the weak almost 2% lower. Initially higher on EU plans to implement price caps on Russian oil, increased doubts of an Iran nuclear deal and fallout from a possible rail workers strike, prices moved lower Thursday with the rail workers strike averted and renewed concerns of slowing economic growth. Prices moved slightly higher Friday following news of an Iraq oil spill hindering Iraqi oil exports.
An up-and-down, holiday-shortened trading week for gold prices. Pressured by rising real rates as central banks across the globe acted to stem elevated inflation levels, gold prices rose as the U.S. dollar came off its recent highs and as the ECB increased rates 75bps with promises of more to come. Spot gold prices ended the week about 1/3 percent higher. Spot silver prices, up 4.5% at week’s end, benefited from rising base metal prices as well.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Sep 9
12 September, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
An up-and-down, holiday-shortened trading week for gold prices. Pressured by rising real rates as central banks across the globe acted to stem elevated inflation levels, gold prices rose as the U.S. dollar came off its recent highs and as the ECB increased rates 75bps with promises of more to come. Spot gold prices ended the week about 1/3 percent higher. Spot silver prices, up 4.5% at week’s end, benefited from rising base metal prices as well.
Rising 4% Monday on increased expectations of OPEC+ production cutbacks, oil prices moved sharply lower through Thursday on growing demand concerns. Renewed Chinese Covid-related restrictions amidst falling Chinese factory activity, global recession concerns, reports of Venezuela working with Chevron to restart oil production and positive noise surrounding an Iran nuclear deal all combined to move oil prices markedly lower. Oil prices moved slightly higher Friday following a mixed U.S. employment report, renewed hopes of OPEC+ cutbacks and increased skepticism of an Iran deal.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Sep 2
06 September, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Rising 4% Monday on increased expectations of OPEC+ production cutbacks, oil prices moved sharply lower through Thursday on growing demand concerns. Renewed Chinese Covid-related restrictions amidst falling Chinese factory activity, global recession concerns, reports of Venezuela working with Chevron to restart oil production and positive noise surrounding an Iran nuclear deal all combined to move oil prices markedly lower. Oil prices moved slightly higher Friday following a mixed U.S. employment report, renewed hopes of OPEC+ cutbacks and increased skepticism of an Iran deal.
Up a little over ½ percent through Thursday, spot gold prices ended the week lower after falling almost 1 ¼ percent Friday following Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Weak economic data (including contracting business activity in the U.S. Europe and China, falling home sales) and a weaker U.S. dollar buoyed gold prices through Thursday. Powell’s comments Friday affirming the Fed’s continuing vigilance against inflation, sent gold prices over a percent lower. Despite the move lower in gold prices, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rates rose only slightly, increasing 5bps with 10-year inflation expectations remaining practically unchanged. Spot silver and platinum prices moved lower with gold prices.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Aug 26
29 August, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Up a little over ½ percent through Thursday, spot gold prices ended the week lower after falling almost 1 ¼ percent Friday following Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Weak economic data (including contracting business activity in the U.S. Europe and China, falling home sales) and a weaker U.S. dollar buoyed gold prices through Thursday. Powell’s comments Friday affirming the Fed’s continuing vigilance against inflation, sent gold prices over a percent lower. Despite the move lower in gold prices, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rates rose only slightly, increasing 5bps with 10-year inflation expectations remaining practically unchanged. Spot silver and platinum prices moved lower with gold prices.
Falling 5.5% through Tuesday on weak Chinese economic data and global recession fears, oil prices moved higher the remainder of the week primarily buoyed by much larger-than-expected drawdowns in U.S. crude and gasoline inventories. U.S. oil exports reached a record high, powered by the deep discount of WTI crude oil prices to Brent crude oil prices. Nonetheless, oil prices finished the week down close to 1% with gains capped by recession uncertainty, a stronger U.S. dollar and the possibility of renewed Iranian oil exports.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Aug 19
22 August, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Falling 5.5% through Tuesday on weak Chinese economic data and global recession fears, oil prices moved higher the remainder of the week primarily buoyed by much larger-than-expected drawdowns in U.S. crude and gasoline inventories. U.S. oil exports reached a record high, powered by the deep discount of WTI crude oil prices to Brent crude oil prices. Nonetheless, oil prices finished the week down close to 1% with gains capped by recession uncertainty, a stronger U.S. dollar and the possibility of renewed Iranian oil exports.
Gold prices moved higher again last week buoyed primarily by expectations of a less aggressive Fed. Spot gold prices moved over 1% higher through Tuesday, recovering all of the previous Friday’s loss caused by the much stronger-than-expected payroll report, as expectations of an aggressive Fed diminished. Wednesday’s lower-than-expected CPI release further reduced those expectations though hawkish comments by some Fed presidents seemingly prevented gold from moving higher until Friday.
Topic: Commodities
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Aug 12
15 August, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Gold prices moved higher again last week buoyed primarily by expectations of a less aggressive Fed. Spot gold prices moved over 1% higher through Tuesday, recovering all of the previous Friday’s loss caused by the much stronger-than-expected payroll report, as expectations of an aggressive Fed diminished. Wednesday’s lower-than-expected CPI release further reduced those expectations though hawkish comments by some Fed presidents seemingly prevented gold from moving higher until Friday.
Sharply lower oil prices last week driven both by demand and supply concerns. Weak manufacturing data in Europe, the U.S. and Asia added to already existing recession concerns while Wednesday’s surprise large increase in crude oil and gasoline inventories contributed to supply-side anxiousness. The BoE’s recession warning following its 50bp rate increase also pressured prices lower. Friday’s much stronger-than-expected jobs reports moved oil prices slightly higher.
Topic: Commodities
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Aug 5
08 August, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Sharply lower oil prices last week driven both by demand and supply concerns. Weak manufacturing data in Europe, the U.S. and Asia added to already existing recession concerns while Wednesday’s surprise large increase in crude oil and gasoline inventories contributed to supply-side anxiousness. The BoE’s recession warning following its 50bp rate increase also pressured prices lower. Friday’s much stronger-than-expected jobs reports moved oil prices slightly higher.
Gold prices continued their move higher last week bolstered, mainly, by Wednesday’s as-expected 75bp rate hike and seemingly less-aggressive guidance regarding future rate policy in the face of growing economic growth concerns. Thursday’s GDP release showing the U.S. economy contracted for a second month in a row added to sentiment the Fed, while still tightening, would do so at a slower pace and begin to reduce rates sooner than expected. 10-year real yields, as a result, moved over 30bps lower ending the week at 0.10% and the U.S. dollar weakened 0.7%.
Topic: Commodities
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jul 29
01 August, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Gold prices continued their move higher last week bolstered, mainly, by Wednesday’s as-expected 75bp rate hike and seemingly less-aggressive guidance regarding future rate policy in the face of growing economic growth concerns. Thursday’s GDP release showing the U.S. economy contracted for a second month in a row added to sentiment the Fed, while still tightening, would do so at a slower pace and begin to reduce rates sooner than expected. 10-year real yields, as a result, moved over 30bps lower ending the week at 0.10% and the U.S. dollar weakened 0.7%.
Gold prices increased last week supported by a weaker U.S. dollar. Decreasing expectations of a 100bp Fed rate hike this week combined with a greater-than-expected 50bp ECB rate increase worked to weaken the U.S. dollar, push Treasury rates lower and move gold prices higher. 10-year Treasury rates fell 18bps with most of that move lower due to a decline in 10-year real rates from 55bps to 41bps.
Topic: Commodities
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jul 22
25 July, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Gold prices increased last week supported by a weaker U.S. dollar. Decreasing expectations of a 100bp Fed rate hike this week combined with a greater-than-expected 50bp ECB rate increase worked to weaken the U.S. dollar, push Treasury rates lower and move gold prices higher. 10-year Treasury rates fell 18bps with most of that move lower due to a decline in 10-year real rates from 55bps to 41bps.
Oil prices ended the week markedly lower, falling nearly 8% Tuesday on global recession fears. New Chinese Covid-related restrictions, recession concerns and a stronger U.S. dollar all combined to push oil prices lower on the week. Wednesday’s higher-than-expected CPI release and larger-than-expected build in U.S. oil inventories added to downward price pressure but not significantly. Prices moved almost 2% higher Friday after the White House stated it did not expect an immediate increase in Saudi oil production following President Biden’s meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Friday’s stronger-than-expected retail sales report may have also supported oil prices.
Topic: Commodities
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jul 15
18 July, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices ended the week markedly lower, falling nearly 8% Tuesday on global recession fears. New Chinese Covid-related restrictions, recession concerns and a stronger U.S. dollar all combined to push oil prices lower on the week. Wednesday’s higher-than-expected CPI release and larger-than-expected build in U.S. oil inventories added to downward price pressure but not significantly. Prices moved almost 2% higher Friday after the White House stated it did not expect an immediate increase in Saudi oil production following President Biden’s meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Friday’s stronger-than-expected retail sales report may have also supported oil prices.
Oil prices ended the week lower but well off of Wednesday’s low. Recession fears combined with concerns of new Chinese Covid-related restrictions drove oil prices 8% to 9% lower Tuesday followed by another 2% move lower Wednesday. While oil inventories increased much more than expected (due mainly to SPR releases), gasoline and distillate inventories fell much more than expected, pushing oil, gasoline and heating oil prices over 5% higher Thursday. Oil prices continued their move higher Friday in part supported by a stronger-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll report.
Topic: Commodities
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jul 8
11 July, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices ended the week lower but well off of Wednesday’s low. Recession fears combined with concerns of new Chinese Covid-related restrictions drove oil prices 8% to 9% lower Tuesday followed by another 2% move lower Wednesday. While oil inventories increased much more than expected (due mainly to SPR releases), gasoline and distillate inventories fell much more than expected, pushing oil, gasoline and heating oil prices over 5% higher Thursday. Oil prices continued their move higher Friday in part supported by a stronger-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll report.
Base metal prices moved lower again last week with zinc prices dropping almost 10%. Easing Covid-related restrictions in China moved base metal prices higher through Wednesday. Those gains were erased over Thursday and Friday following hawkish comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell stating price stability was more important than economic growth. Prices fell sharply Thursday and Friday despite increased Chinese factory activity with copper prices ending the week down 4%.
Topic: Commodities
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jul 1
05 July, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Base metal prices moved lower again last week with zinc prices dropping almost 10%. Easing Covid-related restrictions in China moved base metal prices higher through Wednesday. Those gains were erased over Thursday and Friday following hawkish comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell stating price stability was more important than economic growth. Prices fell sharply Thursday and Friday despite increased Chinese factory activity with copper prices ending the week down 4%.
Base metal prices moved lower again last week led by sharply falling nickel prices. Increased recession concerns, backed by weakening global economic data following aggressive central bank tightening as well as Covid-related slowdowns in China, helped move base metal prices noticeably lower last week. Copper prices fell over 4% and nickel prices fell almost 7% Friday.
Topic: Commodities
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jun 24
27 June, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Base metal prices moved lower again last week led by sharply falling nickel prices. Increased recession concerns, backed by weakening global economic data following aggressive central bank tightening as well as Covid-related slowdowns in China, helped move base metal prices noticeably lower last week. Copper prices fell over 4% and nickel prices fell almost 7% Friday.
Energy prices moved sharply lower last week with natural gas prices leading the decline. Fears of a central bank-induced global recession were the primary driving force behind the decline, followed by a stronger U.S. dollar and reports of possible new Covid-related restrictions in Beijing. Increased oil production in the U.S., reaching 12 million barrels/day (the highest since April 2020) and Russia claiming its oil exports will increase in 2022 may have also pressured prices lower. Demand side factors prevailed despite sharply reduced Libyan production, the failure of OPEC+ to implement planned production increases and new sanctions on Iranian and Chinese firms that enable Iranian oil exports. Natural gas prices plunged over 22%, falling 17% on Tuesday alone, after a Texas LNG facility extended the forecasted shut down period until later this year due to damage suffered in a fire the previous week.
Topic: Commodities
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jun 17
21 June, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Energy prices moved sharply lower last week with natural gas prices leading the decline. Fears of a central bank-induced global recession were the primary driving force behind the decline, followed by a stronger U.S. dollar and reports of possible new Covid-related restrictions in Beijing. Increased oil production in the U.S., reaching 12 million barrels/day (the highest since April 2020) and Russia claiming its oil exports will increase in 2022 may have also pressured prices lower. Demand side factors prevailed despite sharply reduced Libyan production, the failure of OPEC+ to implement planned production increases and new sanctions on Iranian and Chinese firms that enable Iranian oil exports. Natural gas prices plunged over 22%, falling 17% on Tuesday alone, after a Texas LNG facility extended the forecasted shut down period until later this year due to damage suffered in a fire the previous week.
Almost unchanged through Thursday, spot gold prices rose 1 ¼ percent Friday following a higher-than-expected CPI release and a record low University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading. Concerns of both continued elevated levels of inflation and of an aggressively tightening Fed pushing the U.S. economy into recession lent support to gold prices despite rising 10-year real yields and a stronger U.S. dollar.
Topic: Commodities
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jun 10
13 June, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Almost unchanged through Thursday, spot gold prices rose 1 ¼ percent Friday following a higher-than-expected CPI release and a record low University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading. Concerns of both continued elevated levels of inflation and of an aggressively tightening Fed pushing the U.S. economy into recession lent support to gold prices despite rising 10-year real yields and a stronger U.S. dollar.
Supported by the end of Shanghai Covid-related lockdowns, the EU formally agreeing to ban 90% of Russian oil by year’s end, much lower-than-expected inventory levels and economic reports indicating a strong economy, WTI crude oil prices increased north of 3% last week. The increase came despite OPECs 50% increase of planned monthly production increases and despite a significant increase in U.S. oil production. Gasoline and heating oil prices increased much more than WTI crude oil prices, driven higher by strong demand, historically low inventory levels and constrained refining capacity. Gasoline and heating oil prices rose close to 9%.
Topic: Commodities
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jun 3
06 June, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Supported by the end of Shanghai Covid-related lockdowns, the EU formally agreeing to ban 90% of Russian oil by year’s end, much lower-than-expected inventory levels and economic reports indicating a strong economy, WTI crude oil prices increased north of 3% last week. The increase came despite OPECs 50% increase of planned monthly production increases and despite a significant increase in U.S. oil production. Gasoline and heating oil prices increased much more than WTI crude oil prices, driven higher by strong demand, historically low inventory levels and constrained refining capacity. Gasoline and heating oil prices rose close to 9%.
Spot gold prices moved higher last week supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, rising 10-year inflation expectations and falling 10-year real rates. Up over 1% through Tuesday mainly on falling longer-term real rates and a weaker U.S. dollar, gold prices fell Wednesday and Thursday following the release of the FOMC minutes. The minutes revealed no surprises, however, expressing the possibility the Fed will raise rates 50bps in the next two meetings in a desire to squelch inflation. Spot gold prices moved slightly higher Friday to the end week up 0.4%.
Topic: Commodities
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: May 27
31 May, 2022 | GraniteShares
Spot gold prices moved higher last week supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, rising 10-year inflation expectations and falling 10-year real rates. Up over 1% through Tuesday mainly on falling longer-term real rates and a weaker U.S. dollar, gold prices fell Wednesday and Thursday following the release of the FOMC minutes. The minutes revealed no surprises, however, expressing the possibility the Fed will raise rates 50bps in the next two meetings in a desire to squelch inflation. Spot gold prices moved slightly higher Friday to the end week up 0.4%.
Spot gold prices moved higher last week posting gains every single day but Tuesday. Lower 10-year Treasury rates combined with a weaker U.S. dollar supported gold prices despite Fed Chairman Powell’s hawkish comments Tuesday. Falling, volatile stock markets along with increased concerns of recession may have increased safe-haven demand for gold, providing support for gold prices as well. While 10-year Treasury rates fell last week (down 14bps) all of the decline came from falling 10-year inflation expectations perhaps reflecting increased expectations of slower economic growth or recession.
Topic: Commodities
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: May 20
23 May, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Spot gold prices moved higher last week posting gains every single day but Tuesday. Lower 10-year Treasury rates combined with a weaker U.S. dollar supported gold prices despite Fed Chairman Powell’s hawkish comments Tuesday. Falling, volatile stock markets along with increased concerns of recession may have increased safe-haven demand for gold, providing support for gold prices as well. While 10-year Treasury rates fell last week (down 14bps) all of the decline came from falling 10-year inflation expectations perhaps reflecting increased expectations of slower economic growth or recession.
Recession and weak demand concerns, prompted by global central bank tightening and Chinese Covid-related lockdowns, pushed crude oil prices almost 10% lower through Tuesday. Russia’s sanctioning of European natural gas firms and dramatically reduced pipeline flows of Russian natural gas, drove WTI crude oil prices almost 6% higher Wednesday. Prices then rose another 5%, powered by soaring gasoline prices and indications China was diminishing lockdowns. For the week, WTI crude oil prices edged slightly lower, decreasing 0.3%.
Topic: Commodities
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: May 13
16 May, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Recession and weak demand concerns, prompted by global central bank tightening and Chinese Covid-related lockdowns, pushed crude oil prices almost 10% lower through Tuesday. Russia’s sanctioning of European natural gas firms and dramatically reduced pipeline flows of Russian natural gas, drove WTI crude oil prices almost 6% higher Wednesday. Prices then rose another 5%, powered by soaring gasoline prices and indications China was diminishing lockdowns. For the week, WTI crude oil prices edged slightly lower, decreasing 0.3%.
Nearly 2% lower through Tuesday on China Covid-related demand reduction concerns, WTI crude oil prices rallied the remainder of the week, fueled by EU efforts to ban imports of Russia crude oil and refined products by year end. OPEC+’s decision to not increase production beyond its scheduled increase also supported oil prices. Natural gas prices moved sharply higher again, supported by growing LNG exports and low inventory levels.
Topic: Commodities
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: May 6
09 May, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Nearly 2% lower through Tuesday on China Covid-related demand reduction concerns, WTI crude oil prices rallied the remainder of the week, fueled by EU efforts to ban imports of Russia crude oil and refined products by year end. OPEC+’s decision to not increase production beyond its scheduled increase also supported oil prices. Natural gas prices moved sharply higher again, supported by growing LNG exports and low inventory levels.
Sharply lower Monday on increased concerns of slower economic growth both due to Covid-related lockdowns in China and central bank tightening (especially by the Fed), crude oil prices moved higher the remainder of the week buoyed by renewed supply concerns. Germany’s willingness to embargo Russian oil purchases, a smaller-than-expected increase in U.S. oil inventories and OPEC+’s continued refusal to increase production all lent support to oil prices. In addition, Russia’s halting of natural gas sales to Poland and Bulgaria not only helped move natural gas prices higher but also pushed diesel and heating oil prices higher (they are used as substitutes for natural gas), in turn supporting oil prices. China’s Politburo’s plans to support the Chinese economy during its Covid-related lockdowns also supported prices.
Topic: Commodities
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Apr 29
02 May, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Sharply lower Monday on increased concerns of slower economic growth both due to Covid-related lockdowns in China and central bank tightening (especially by the Fed), crude oil prices moved higher the remainder of the week buoyed by renewed supply concerns. Germany’s willingness to embargo Russian oil purchases, a smaller-than-expected increase in U.S. oil inventories and OPEC+’s continued refusal to increase production all lent support to oil prices. In addition, Russia’s halting of natural gas sales to Poland and Bulgaria not only helped move natural gas prices higher but also pushed diesel and heating oil prices higher (they are used as substitutes for natural gas), in turn supporting oil prices. China’s Politburo’s plans to support the Chinese economy during its Covid-related lockdowns also supported prices.
Pressured by hawkish comments from Fed governors on Tuesday and Wednesday and then again on Thursday by Fed Chairman Powell, spot gold prices ended the week over 2% lower. 10-year real yields rose 9bps to 0% Tuesday following FOMC member Bullard’s call for a Fed funds rate of 3.5% by year end and pushed gold prices nearly 1.5% lower. Chairman Powell’s comments Thursday saying inflation needed to be addressed now and that a 50bp rate hike was a possibility in May helped pressure prices even lower. The decline in gold prices occurred despite the fact the 10-year real yields ended the week unchanged (at -0.08%) and 10-year inflation expectations increased 8bps to 2.99%.
Topic: Commodities
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Apr 22
25 April, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Pressured by hawkish comments from Fed governors on Tuesday and Wednesday and then again on Thursday by Fed Chairman Powell, spot gold prices ended the week over 2% lower. 10-year real yields rose 9bps to 0% Tuesday following FOMC member Bullard’s call for a Fed funds rate of 3.5% by year end and pushed gold prices nearly 1.5% lower. Chairman Powell’s comments Thursday saying inflation needed to be addressed now and that a 50bp rate hike was a possibility in May helped pressure prices even lower. The decline in gold prices occurred despite the fact the 10-year real yields ended the week unchanged (at -0.08%) and 10-year inflation expectations increased 8bps to 2.99%.
Gold prices moved higher again last week despite rising rates and a stronger U.S. dollar. Increased safe-haven investment demand due to renewed uncertainty regarding the Ukraine-Russia war and growing concerns about continued, elevated levels of inflation helped move gold prices higher on the week. Thursday’s ECB decision to leave monetary policy unchanged pushed the U.S. dollar higher, weakening gold prices Friday. And while 10-year U.S. Treasury rates increased 13bps last week, 10-year breakeven inflation rates continue to rise as well. Silver and Platinum prices rose with gold prices while palladium prices were almost 3% lower, perhaps on profit taking.
Topic: Commodities
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Apr 15
18 April, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Gold prices moved higher again last week despite rising rates and a stronger U.S. dollar. Increased safe-haven investment demand due to renewed uncertainty regarding the Ukraine-Russia war and growing concerns about continued, elevated levels of inflation helped move gold prices higher on the week. Thursday’s ECB decision to leave monetary policy unchanged pushed the U.S. dollar higher, weakening gold prices Friday. And while 10-year U.S. Treasury rates increased 13bps last week, 10-year breakeven inflation rates continue to rise as well. Silver and Platinum prices rose with gold prices while palladium prices were almost 3% lower, perhaps on profit taking.
Gold prices rose last week despite substantially higher 10-year U.S. Treasury rates and a stronger U.S. dollar. While haven-investment demand, emanating from the Russia-Ukraine war, helped support gold prices, increased inflation concerns resulting from Fed Governor Brainard’s comments Tuesday and the release of the FOMC minutes Wednesday, seemingly provided the major impetus to move prices higher. Though 10-year U.S. Treasury rates have increased 1.2% YTD, to levels not seen since 2019, 10-year inflation expectations have risen 28bps from already elevated levels and despite Fed indications of aggressive tightening. Palladium and platinum prices, both down over 3% mid-week, rose substantially Friday on news the LPPM would not allow trading of newly refined palladium and platinum. Silver prices rose with gold prices.
Topic: Commodities
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Apr 8
11 April, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Gold prices rose last week despite substantially higher 10-year U.S. Treasury rates and a stronger U.S. dollar. While haven-investment demand, emanating from the Russia-Ukraine war, helped support gold prices, increased inflation concerns resulting from Fed Governor Brainard’s comments Tuesday and the release of the FOMC minutes Wednesday, seemingly provided the major impetus to move prices higher. Though 10-year U.S. Treasury rates have increased 1.2% YTD, to levels not seen since 2019, 10-year inflation expectations have risen 28bps from already elevated levels and despite Fed indications of aggressive tightening. Palladium and platinum prices, both down over 3% mid-week, rose substantially Friday on news the LPPM would not allow trading of newly refined palladium and platinum. Silver prices rose with gold prices.
Oil prices declined significantly last week, pressured by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, Chinese Covid-related lockdowns and Thursday’s announcement of a large release from the SPR. WTI crude oil prices fell every day but one last week, pausing briefly Wednesday on fading hopes of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. oil inventories.
Topic: Commodities
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Apr 1 (1)
04 April, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices declined significantly last week, pressured by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, Chinese Covid-related lockdowns and Thursday’s announcement of a large release from the SPR. WTI crude oil prices fell every day but one last week, pausing briefly Wednesday on fading hopes of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. oil inventories.
Oil prices moved sharply higher last week, rising 7% and 5% Monday and Wednesday, as oil markets remain volatile. EU discussions regarding joining the U.S. embargo of Russian oil moved oil prices sharply high Monday while news of storm-related Caspian pipeline outages affecting the flow of over 1 million barrels/day of Russia and Kazakhstan oil exports pushed oil prices over 5% higher Wednesday. Falling U.S. oil inventory levels, stalled Iran nuclear talks and Houthi attacks Monday and Friday on Saudi oil facilities also contributed to higher oil prices. May WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices rose just 11% last week.
Topic: Commodities
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Mar 25
28 March, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices moved sharply higher last week, rising 7% and 5% Monday and Wednesday, as oil markets remain volatile. EU discussions regarding joining the U.S. embargo of Russian oil moved oil prices sharply high Monday while news of storm-related Caspian pipeline outages affecting the flow of over 1 million barrels/day of Russia and Kazakhstan oil exports pushed oil prices over 5% higher Wednesday. Falling U.S. oil inventory levels, stalled Iran nuclear talks and Houthi attacks Monday and Friday on Saudi oil facilities also contributed to higher oil prices. May WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices rose just 11% last week.
LME nickel trading resumed Wednesday with nickel prices falling limit down Wednesday, Thursday and Friday to finish the week 23% lower. The limit-down trading occurred as LME prices sought equilibrium with Shanghai-traded nickel prices. Copper prices fell early in the week following reports of planned Chinese Covid-19-related lockdowns and on increased hopes of a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Copper prices rose the remainder of the week (to finish the week higher) following suspension of copper production at a Southern Copper mine in Peru. Aluminum prices ended lower on the week, faltering with concerns of slower Chinese economic growth and on increased hopes of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire.
Topic: Commodities
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Mar 18
21 March, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
LME nickel trading resumed Wednesday with nickel prices falling limit down Wednesday, Thursday and Friday to finish the week 23% lower. The limit-down trading occurred as LME prices sought equilibrium with Shanghai-traded nickel prices. Copper prices fell early in the week following reports of planned Chinese Covid-19-related lockdowns and on increased hopes of a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Copper prices rose the remainder of the week (to finish the week higher) following suspension of copper production at a Southern Copper mine in Peru. Aluminum prices ended lower on the week, faltering with concerns of slower Chinese economic growth and on increased hopes of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire.
An extremely volatile week for base metal prices led by nickel prices. Nickel prices, up 65% Monday, doubled Tuesday morning before the LME suspended trading and canceled all nickel trades posted on Tuesday. Growing concerns that access to Russian nickel production (Russia produces over 10% of the world’s nickel) would be banned or severely restricted combined with large nickel purchases to close a large short position held by Chinese producer Tsingshan pushed nickel prices into the stratosphere. Aluminum and copper prices, weakened by Germany’s refusal to ban Russia energy imports on Monday, fell further following the LME’s suspension of nickel trading. Aluminum prices, down close to 15% through Wednesday, for example, rose the remainder of the week on continued supply concerns (Russia is a larger produce of aluminum as well) to end the week down 9.5%. Copper prices, which reached all-time highs intraday Monday, finished the weak down 6.3%.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Mar 11
14 March, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
An extremely volatile week for base metal prices led by nickel prices. Nickel prices, up 65% Monday, doubled Tuesday morning before the LME suspended trading and canceled all nickel trades posted on Tuesday. Growing concerns that access to Russian nickel production (Russia produces over 10% of the world’s nickel) would be banned or severely restricted combined with large nickel purchases to close a large short position held by Chinese producer Tsingshan pushed nickel prices into the stratosphere. Aluminum and copper prices, weakened by Germany’s refusal to ban Russia energy imports on Monday, fell further following the LME’s suspension of nickel trading. Aluminum prices, down close to 15% through Wednesday, for example, rose the remainder of the week on continued supply concerns (Russia is a larger produce of aluminum as well) to end the week down 9.5%. Copper prices, which reached all-time highs intraday Monday, finished the weak down 6.3%.
Oil prices soared last week propelled by oil buyers shunning Russian produced oil as a result of its invasion of Ukraine and amid growing concerns Russia oil and natural gas exports could be restricted by additional sanctions. Oil prices, already supported by strong demand in the face of tight supply, soared 25% last week with WTI crude oil prices reaching levels not seen in over a decade. Oil prices moved close to 7% higher every day last week excluding Monday and Thursday, with prices increasing 4% on Monday. Prices fell 2% Thursday on reports of good progress in Iran nuclear agreement negotiations but expectations of increased oil supply from Iran were quickly pushed aside on news of Russia’s attack on Ukraine’s largest nuclear power facility Friday.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Mar 4
07 March, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices soared last week propelled by oil buyers shunning Russian produced oil as a result of its invasion of Ukraine and amid growing concerns Russia oil and natural gas exports could be restricted by additional sanctions. Oil prices, already supported by strong demand in the face of tight supply, soared 25% last week with WTI crude oil prices reaching levels not seen in over a decade. Oil prices moved close to 7% higher every day last week excluding Monday and Thursday, with prices increasing 4% on Monday. Prices fell 2% Thursday on reports of good progress in Iran nuclear agreement negotiations but expectations of increased oil supply from Iran were quickly pushed aside on news of Russia’s attack on Ukraine’s largest nuclear power facility Friday.
A wild week for grain prices but especially for wheat prices. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine following the recognition of and deployment of troops into separatist held strongholds in Ukraine sent wheat prices over 16% higher through Thursday. Corn prices, also affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict moved almost 6% higher through Thursday. Less-harsh-than-feared sanctions on Russia imposed by the U.S., UK and the EU and reports of Russia willingness to negotiate with Ukraine, pushed grain prices sharply lower with wheat prices dropping 8% and corn and soybean prices falling between 4% and 5% on Friday.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Feb 25
28 February, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
A wild week for grain prices but especially for wheat prices. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine following the recognition of and deployment of troops into separatist held strongholds in Ukraine sent wheat prices over 16% higher through Thursday. Corn prices, also affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict moved almost 6% higher through Thursday. Less-harsh-than-feared sanctions on Russia imposed by the U.S., UK and the EU and reports of Russia willingness to negotiate with Ukraine, pushed grain prices sharply lower with wheat prices dropping 8% and corn and soybean prices falling between 4% and 5% on Friday.
Gold prices moved higher again last week as the Russia-Ukraine conflict continued and investor demand for haven investments increased. Like other markets, gold prices moved lower on Tuesday following Russian reports of troop withdrawals but then resumed their march higher the remainder of the week. FOMC minutes, released Wednesday, were also supportive of gold prices with the minutes deemed as more dovish than hawkish regarding Fed monetary policy. Silver and platinum prices moved higher as well.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Feb 18
22 February, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Gold prices moved higher again last week as the Russia-Ukraine conflict continued and investor demand for haven investments increased. Like other markets, gold prices moved lower on Tuesday following Russian reports of troop withdrawals but then resumed their march higher the remainder of the week. FOMC minutes, released Wednesday, were also supportive of gold prices with the minutes deemed as more dovish than hawkish regarding Fed monetary policy. Silver and platinum prices moved higher as well.
Gold prices moved higher every single day last week energized by heightened elevated inflation concerns and by the possibility of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine. Despite significantly increased expectations of aggressive Fed tightening this year – spurred by Thursday’s much greater-than-expected CPI release – gold prices moved higher with increasing concerns of continued high levels of inflation (10-year breakeven inflation rates rose 5bps last week). Friday’s White House announcement that Russia could invade Ukraine at any time increased haven demand for gold as U.S. stock markets moved sharply lower, moving gold price higher despite a stronger U.S. dollar.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Feb 11
14 February, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Gold prices moved higher every single day last week energized by heightened elevated inflation concerns and by the possibility of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine. Despite significantly increased expectations of aggressive Fed tightening this year – spurred by Thursday’s much greater-than-expected CPI release – gold prices moved higher with increasing concerns of continued high levels of inflation (10-year breakeven inflation rates rose 5bps last week). Friday’s White House announcement that Russia could invade Ukraine at any time increased haven demand for gold as U.S. stock markets moved sharply lower, moving gold price higher despite a stronger U.S. dollar.
Oil prices continued to rise last week with WTI crude oil prices surpassing 7-year highs and closing above $90/barrel. Tight supplies brought about by moderate OPEC+ production increases (worsened by production setbacks in a number of OPEC+ member states), a larger-than-expected decline in U.S. oil Inventories, Middle East tensions (Houthi missile fired at Abu Dhabi) and continued U.S.-Russia tensions over Ukraine continued to support oil prices. Forecasts of frigid weather in the U.S. and particularly in Texas pressured oil prices 4% higher over Thursday and Friday with increased concerns of weather-related production/refining shutdowns.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Feb 4
07 February, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices continued to rise last week with WTI crude oil prices surpassing 7-year highs and closing above $90/barrel. Tight supplies brought about by moderate OPEC+ production increases (worsened by production setbacks in a number of OPEC+ member states), a larger-than-expected decline in U.S. oil Inventories, Middle East tensions (Houthi missile fired at Abu Dhabi) and continued U.S.-Russia tensions over Ukraine continued to support oil prices. Forecasts of frigid weather in the U.S. and particularly in Texas pressured oil prices 4% higher over Thursday and Friday with increased concerns of weather-related production/refining shutdowns.
The Russia-Ukraine situation and highly volatile equity markets prompted by uncertainty surrounding the FOMC announcement Wednesday pushed gold prices over 1% higher through Tuesday. Wednesday’s FOMC announcement and subsequent Jerome Powell press conference, confirming the Fed’s intent to move rates higher in March, contributed to a stronger U.S. dollar, moving gold prices 1.2% lower. Thursday’s better-than-expected GDP release, added to tightening expectations, moved the U.S. dollar higher and gold prices 2% lower. Silver prices moved sharply lower on the week, moving lower with gold and base metal prices.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jan 28
31 January, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
The Russia-Ukraine situation and highly volatile equity markets prompted by uncertainty surrounding the FOMC announcement Wednesday pushed gold prices over 1% higher through Tuesday. Wednesday’s FOMC announcement and subsequent Jerome Powell press conference, confirming the Fed’s intent to move rates higher in March, contributed to a stronger U.S. dollar, moving gold prices 1.2% lower. Thursday’s better-than-expected GDP release, added to tightening expectations, moved the U.S. dollar higher and gold prices 2% lower. Silver prices moved sharply lower on the week, moving lower with gold and base metal prices.
Nickel prices moved higher again last week, climbing 8.5% on the back of continued strong stainless steel and EV-battery demand and falling inventory levels. Copper prices moved higher as well supported by PBoC stimulus and strong demand. Copper prices, up 3.7% through Thursday, fell 1.3% Friday on weaker-than-expected Chinese economic numbers, a stronger U.S. dollar and falling U.S. stock markets.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jan 21
24 January, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Nickel prices moved higher again last week, climbing 8.5% on the back of continued strong stainless steel and EV-battery demand and falling inventory levels. Copper prices moved higher as well supported by PBoC stimulus and strong demand. Copper prices, up 3.7% through Thursday, fell 1.3% Friday on weaker-than-expected Chinese economic numbers, a stronger U.S. dollar and falling U.S. stock markets.
Buoyed by dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his Tuesday’s testimony, gold prices moved 1.6% higher through Wednesday. Powell’s comments, proclaiming the Fed’s monetary policy was far from restrictive, weakened the U.S. dollar and pushed 10-year real rates almost 10bps lower, pushing gold prices over 1% higher. Following higher-than-expected CPI and PPI releases Wednesday and Thursday, gold prices eased lower from their intraweek highs as 10-year real rates rebounded and the U.S. dollar moved off its lows, both reflecting increased Fed tightening concerns.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jan 14
18 January, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Buoyed by dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his Tuesday’s testimony, gold prices moved 1.6% higher through Wednesday. Powell’s comments, proclaiming the Fed’s monetary policy was far from restrictive, weakened the U.S. dollar and pushed 10-year real rates almost 10bps lower, pushing gold prices over 1% higher. Following higher-than-expected CPI and PPI releases Wednesday and Thursday, gold prices eased lower from their intraweek highs as 10-year real rates rebounded and the U.S. dollar moved off its lows, both reflecting increased Fed tightening concerns.
Oil prices moved markedly higher last week bolstered by supply disruptions in Libya, Nigeria and Angola, unrest in Kazakhstan and expectations of strong demand despite recent weakness due to increased Omicron cases. OPEC+ agreed, as expected, to maintain its planned 400,000 bpd increase in February though it is unlikely realization of that increase will occur due to OPEC country production difficulties. While U.S oil inventories fell last week, gasoline inventories increased a greater-than-expected 10 million barrels, increasing on the back of depressed demand due to Omicron. Oil prices increased every day last week but Friday when the weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll report moved prices lower.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jan 7
10 January, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices moved markedly higher last week bolstered by supply disruptions in Libya, Nigeria and Angola, unrest in Kazakhstan and expectations of strong demand despite recent weakness due to increased Omicron cases. OPEC+ agreed, as expected, to maintain its planned 400,000 bpd increase in February though it is unlikely realization of that increase will occur due to OPEC country production difficulties. While U.S oil inventories fell last week, gasoline inventories increased a greater-than-expected 10 million barrels, increasing on the back of depressed demand due to Omicron. Oil prices increased every day last week but Friday when the weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll report moved prices lower.
Gold prices moved higher last week with most of the increase happening Friday. Uncertainty surrounding the Omicron Covid variant, a weaker U.S dollar and falling 10-year U.S. Treasury real rates all helped to move gold prices higher. 10-year U.S. real rates fell 8bps, closing the week at -1.10%, while 10-year U.S. Treasury rates rose 2bps. The U.S. dollar continued its slide, weakening 0.4% on the week. For the year, the spot gold price was lower by 3.5%.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Dec 31 (1)
03 January, 2022 | Jeff Klearman
Gold prices moved higher last week with most of the increase happening Friday. Uncertainty surrounding the Omicron Covid variant, a weaker U.S dollar and falling 10-year U.S. Treasury real rates all helped to move gold prices higher. 10-year U.S. real rates fell 8bps, closing the week at -1.10%, while 10-year U.S. Treasury rates rose 2bps. The U.S. dollar continued its slide, weakening 0.4% on the week. For the year, the spot gold price was lower by 3.5%.
Base metal prices moved higher as well last week supported both by continued supply concerns, low inventories and reduced Omicron-related concerns. Continued zinc and aluminum production concerns resulting from soaring energy costs, boosted prices with both zinc and aluminum prices moving 4.5% higher through Thursday.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Dec 23
27 December, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Base metal prices moved higher as well last week supported both by continued supply concerns, low inventories and reduced Omicron-related concerns. Continued zinc and aluminum production concerns resulting from soaring energy costs, boosted prices with both zinc and aluminum prices moving 4.5% higher through Thursday.
Gold prices rose last week despite Wednesday’s FOMC announcement the Fed would be doubling the reduction in its bond buyback program. Down over 1% through Wednesday, gold prices jumped almost 2% higher over Thursday and Friday, rallying on relief the Fed had acted as expected as well as on growing Omicron concerns. 10-year U.S. real rates fell 7bps Thursday, reflecting investor expectations of the continued need for easy-money monetary policies, also supporting gold prices.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Dec 17
20 December, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Gold prices rose last week despite Wednesday’s FOMC announcement the Fed would be doubling the reduction in its bond buyback program. Down over 1% through Wednesday, gold prices jumped almost 2% higher over Thursday and Friday, rallying on relief the Fed had acted as expected as well as on growing Omicron concerns. 10-year U.S. real rates fell 7bps Thursday, reflecting investor expectations of the continued need for easy-money monetary policies, also supporting gold prices.
Buoyed by increased Chinese imports, the PBoC’s lowering of reserve requirements and lessening concerns surrounding the economic impact of the Omicron Covid variant, copper prices increased nearly 3% through Wednesday. Announcements of precautionary Omicron-related restrictions in Europe and the UK and the ratings downgrade of Chinese property firms Evergrande and Kaisa moved copper prices lower the remainder of the week, leaving copper prices up about ½ percent for the week. Zinc prices, up over 5% last week, moved higher on Glencore’s “maintainance and care” shutdown of Its smelter in Italy. The shutdown prompted supply concerns, driving prices higher.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Dec 10
13 December, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Buoyed by increased Chinese imports, the PBoC’s lowering of reserve requirements and lessening concerns surrounding the economic impact of the Omicron Covid variant, copper prices increased nearly 3% through Wednesday. Announcements of precautionary Omicron-related restrictions in Europe and the UK and the ratings downgrade of Chinese property firms Evergrande and Kaisa moved copper prices lower the remainder of the week, leaving copper prices up about ½ percent for the week. Zinc prices, up over 5% last week, moved higher on Glencore’s “maintainance and care” shutdown of Its smelter in Italy. The shutdown prompted supply concerns, driving prices higher.
Oil price movements mirrored U.S. stock market fluctuations, affected similarly to Omicron and Fed tightening concerns. Wednesday’s EIA oil inventory decline was all but ignored due to greater-than-expected increases in gasoline and distillate inventories, helping move oil prices lower. OPEC+, at their meeting Thursday, declined to reduce January’s production increases, initially causing price to fall, but qualified their decision saying they would closely monitor the Omicron situation and meet again if necessary, moving prices higher for the day. Nonetheless, WTI crude oil prices finished the week almost 3% lower. Natural gas prices plunged last week, falling over 24% with almost half that decline occurring Monday. Warmer-than-expected weather in most of the U.S. was the primary reason for the decline in prices.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Dec 3
06 December, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Oil price movements mirrored U.S. stock market fluctuations, affected similarly to Omicron and Fed tightening concerns. Wednesday’s EIA oil inventory decline was all but ignored due to greater-than-expected increases in gasoline and distillate inventories, helping move oil prices lower. OPEC+, at their meeting Thursday, declined to reduce January’s production increases, initially causing price to fall, but qualified their decision saying they would closely monitor the Omicron situation and meet again if necessary, moving prices higher for the day. Nonetheless, WTI crude oil prices finished the week almost 3% lower. Natural gas prices plunged last week, falling over 24% with almost half that decline occurring Monday. Warmer-than-expected weather in most of the U.S. was the primary reason for the decline in prices.
Gold prices moved sharply lower Monday and Tuesday, falling 3.5%, pressured by Fed Chairman Powell’s renomination and growing expectations the Fed would accelerate its tapering program enabling the Fed to raise rates sooner. 10-year U.S. Treasury real rates, reflecting these expectations, increased 11bps through Wednesday. The U.S. dollar behaved similarly, strengthening almost 1% through Wednesday. Gold prices rallied nearly 1% Friday morning as investors sought haven investments as stock and commodity prices fell sharply due to fears of a new, potentially vaccine resistant, Covid variant but ended the day almost unchanged. 10-year real rates, however, fell 9bps Friday to -1.09% and the U.S. dollar weakened ¾ percent. For the week, gold prices were lower by 3.5%.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Nov 26
29 November, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Gold prices moved sharply lower Monday and Tuesday, falling 3.5%, pressured by Fed Chairman Powell’s renomination and growing expectations the Fed would accelerate its tapering program enabling the Fed to raise rates sooner. 10-year U.S. Treasury real rates, reflecting these expectations, increased 11bps through Wednesday. The U.S. dollar behaved similarly, strengthening almost 1% through Wednesday. Gold prices rallied nearly 1% Friday morning as investors sought haven investments as stock and commodity prices fell sharply due to fears of a new, potentially vaccine resistant, Covid variant but ended the day almost unchanged. 10-year real rates, however, fell 9bps Friday to -1.09% and the U.S. dollar weakened ¾ percent. For the week, gold prices were lower by 3.5%.
Gold prices settled lower last week with increasing 10-year U.S. real rates and a stronger U.S. dollar pressuring prices lower. Europe’s (and China’s) surging Covid cases fortified expectations the ECB would continue its easy-money policies strengthening the U.S. dollar and pressuring gold prices lower. Nonetheless, 10-year U.S. real rates remain at historically low levels (-1.12%), perhaps reflecting the Fed’s reluctance or inability to more aggressively tighten monetary policy.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Nov 19
22 November, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Gold prices settled lower last week with increasing 10-year U.S. real rates and a stronger U.S. dollar pressuring prices lower. Europe’s (and China’s) surging Covid cases fortified expectations the ECB would continue its easy-money policies strengthening the U.S. dollar and pressuring gold prices lower. Nonetheless, 10-year U.S. real rates remain at historically low levels (-1.12%), perhaps reflecting the Fed’s reluctance or inability to more aggressively tighten monetary policy.
Gold prices moved higher again last week supported by growing inflation concerns in the face of cautious and moderate U.S. Federal Reserve tightening. Tuesday’s as-expected-but-high PPI release and Wednesday’s much higher-than-expected CPI release sharpened inflation concerns with gold prices increasing despite a stronger U.S. dollar and rising 10-year U.S. Treasury rates. 10-year U.S. real rates fell 7bps last week (buoying gold prices) meaning the rise in in 10-year U.S. Treasury rates was entirely the result of rising inflation expectations. Silver prices also moved higher last week, outperforming gold prices, benefiting from rising base metal prices as well.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Nov 12
15 November, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Gold prices moved higher again last week supported by growing inflation concerns in the face of cautious and moderate U.S. Federal Reserve tightening. Tuesday’s as-expected-but-high PPI release and Wednesday’s much higher-than-expected CPI release sharpened inflation concerns with gold prices increasing despite a stronger U.S. dollar and rising 10-year U.S. Treasury rates. 10-year U.S. real rates fell 7bps last week (buoying gold prices) meaning the rise in in 10-year U.S. Treasury rates was entirely the result of rising inflation expectations. Silver prices also moved higher last week, outperforming gold prices, benefiting from rising base metal prices as well.
Gold prices moved higher last week buoyed by Fed Chairman Powell’s comments Wednesday expressing concern over the strength of labor markets and maintaining the transitory nature of current high inflation. Friday’s October Non-Farm Payroll report also supported gold prices, with investor uncertainty regarding the strength of future job gains and an unchanged labor participation rate overriding the headline strength of the report. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate ended the week 11bps lower with almost all the decrease coming from falling 10-year real rates (down 8bps over the week), reflecting sentiment Fed changes to monetary policy will be moderate and cautious, supporting gold prices as well.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Nov 5
08 November, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Gold prices moved higher last week buoyed by Fed Chairman Powell’s comments Wednesday expressing concern over the strength of labor markets and maintaining the transitory nature of current high inflation. Friday’s October Non-Farm Payroll report also supported gold prices, with investor uncertainty regarding the strength of future job gains and an unchanged labor participation rate overriding the headline strength of the report. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate ended the week 11bps lower with almost all the decrease coming from falling 10-year real rates (down 8bps over the week), reflecting sentiment Fed changes to monetary policy will be moderate and cautious, supporting gold prices as well.
Gold prices moved higher last week amid growing unease of persistent, structural inflation. Soaring energy prices, production and shipping bottlenecks combined with continued pent-up demand has increased concerns of resilient inflation alongside struggling economic growth. A weaker US dollar also supported gold prices and while 10-year Treasury rates were higher on the week, 10-year real yields closed the week 1bp lower at 1.0%, down 8bps from its intraweek high.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Oct 22
25 October, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Gold prices moved higher last week amid growing unease of persistent, structural inflation. Soaring energy prices, production and shipping bottlenecks combined with continued pent-up demand has increased concerns of resilient inflation alongside struggling economic growth. A weaker US dollar also supported gold prices and while 10-year Treasury rates were higher on the week, 10-year real yields closed the week 1bp lower at 1.0%, down 8bps from its intraweek high.
Up over 1% through Tuesday on continued strong demand and faltering supply, crude oil prices fell over 2% Wednesday following the EIA reporting a much greater-than-expected increase in U.S. oil inventories. Strong oil demand, exacerbated by skyrocketing natural gas and coal prices, along with restrained production continued to underpin oil prices though an unexpectedly large increase in U.S. oil stocks and renewed concerns of Iranian supply pushed prices lower for the first time in weeks. OPEC+, scheduled to meet Thursday this week, is not expected to increase production.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Oct 29
25 October, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Up over 1% through Tuesday on continued strong demand and faltering supply, crude oil prices fell over 2% Wednesday following the EIA reporting a much greater-than-expected increase in U.S. oil inventories. Strong oil demand, exacerbated by skyrocketing natural gas and coal prices, along with restrained production continued to underpin oil prices though an unexpectedly large increase in U.S. oil stocks and renewed concerns of Iranian supply pushed prices lower for the first time in weeks. OPEC+, scheduled to meet Thursday this week, is not expected to increase production.
Base metal prices once again moved sharply higher last week as Europe’s and China’s severe power shortage worked to drastically reduce supply. Concerns of power-shortage-related slower growth switched to tangible supply shortages for most base metals. LME copper inventory levels fell to 47-year lows amidst increasing production cutbacks due to surging power costs. Zinc prices, up over 20% last week, rose on the back of Nyrstar’s announcement it would cut its European smelter production by 50% and as Glencore said it would adjust its European production lower. Aluminum prices reached 13-year highs as China continued to restrict production due to high energy costs (aluminum production is highly energy intensive).
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Oct 15
18 October, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Base metal prices once again moved sharply higher last week as Europe’s and China’s severe power shortage worked to drastically reduce supply. Concerns of power-shortage-related slower growth switched to tangible supply shortages for most base metals. LME copper inventory levels fell to 47-year lows amidst increasing production cutbacks due to surging power costs. Zinc prices, up over 20% last week, rose on the back of Nyrstar’s announcement it would cut its European smelter production by 50% and as Glencore said it would adjust its European production lower. Aluminum prices reached 13-year highs as China continued to restrict production due to high energy costs (aluminum production is highly energy intensive).
Gold December futures prices finished the week almost unchanged, moving higher Monday on the back of sharply declining equity prices only to move lower the remainder of the week. Central bank tightening angst, rising longer-term U.S. interest rates and strong economic reports pressured prices lower through Thursday. Friday’s much weaker-than-expected U.S. payroll report initially sent gold prices almost 1% higher as investors lowered expectations of imminent Fed tightening only to see those gains erased by the close of U.S. trading with renewed uncertainty regarding changes in U.S. Federal Reserve Bank monetary policy.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Oct 8
11 October, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Gold December futures prices finished the week almost unchanged, moving higher Monday on the back of sharply declining equity prices only to move lower the remainder of the week. Central bank tightening angst, rising longer-term U.S. interest rates and strong economic reports pressured prices lower through Thursday. Friday’s much weaker-than-expected U.S. payroll report initially sent gold prices almost 1% higher as investors lowered expectations of imminent Fed tightening only to see those gains erased by the close of U.S. trading with renewed uncertainty regarding changes in U.S. Federal Reserve Bank monetary policy.
Oil prices continued to move higher last week with Brent crude oil prices reaching intraday levels of $80/barrel. Despite larger-than-expected oil and distillate inventory increases (as reported by the EIA Wednesday), oil prices moved higher supported by both production shortages and growing global demand. OPEC+, which meets this week, continues to have difficulties meeting its agreed upon production levels and is not expected to alter production levels while Hurricane-Ida-hindered Gulf of Mexico production is slowly coming back online. On the demand side, China announced it will do what is necessary to maintain its energy and power supply implying cost is not an issue while India imports reached a 3-month high. On top of all this is the skyrocketing cost of natural gas (due to high demand, low inventory levels and production problems) increasing oil demand as a substitute.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Oct 1
04 October, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices continued to move higher last week with Brent crude oil prices reaching intraday levels of $80/barrel. Despite larger-than-expected oil and distillate inventory increases (as reported by the EIA Wednesday), oil prices moved higher supported by both production shortages and growing global demand. OPEC+, which meets this week, continues to have difficulties meeting its agreed upon production levels and is not expected to alter production levels while Hurricane-Ida-hindered Gulf of Mexico production is slowly coming back online. On the demand side, China announced it will do what is necessary to maintain its energy and power supply implying cost is not an issue while India imports reached a 3-month high. On top of all this is the skyrocketing cost of natural gas (due to high demand, low inventory levels and production problems) increasing oil demand as a substitute.
Up over 1.5% through Wednesday, supported by Evergrande contagion fears and uncertainty surrounding the 2-day FOMC meeting, gold futures prices (December expiration) dropped 1.6% Thursday as contagion fears abated and investors digested Wednesday’s FOMC announcement. Wednesday’s FOMC announcement indicated the Fed would likely begin tapering November (with bond buybacks to be eliminated by June next year) with at least one rate hike in 2022 followed by another 2-3 hikes in 2023. 10-year U.S Treasury rates, down 6bps through Wednesday, jumped 13bps Thursday, contributing to the weakness in gold prices. Nonetheless, 10-year real yields remain near historical lows, closing near -90bps Friday.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Sep 24
27 September, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Up over 1.5% through Wednesday, supported by Evergrande contagion fears and uncertainty surrounding the 2-day FOMC meeting, gold futures prices (December expiration) dropped 1.6% Thursday as contagion fears abated and investors digested Wednesday’s FOMC announcement. Wednesday’s FOMC announcement indicated the Fed would likely begin tapering November (with bond buybacks to be eliminated by June next year) with at least one rate hike in 2022 followed by another 2-3 hikes in 2023. 10-year U.S Treasury rates, down 6bps through Wednesday, jumped 13bps Thursday, contributing to the weakness in gold prices. Nonetheless, 10-year real yields remain near historical lows, closing near -90bps Friday.
Oil prices moved sharply higher last week bolstered by slow restoration of Hurricane Ida-related shutdowns and a much larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. oil inventories as reported by the EIA Wednesday. Concerns Hurricane Nicholas could disrupt production fell by the wayside after the storm passed without affecting production or mining capabilities. Up over 4% through Thursday, WTI crude oil prices fell ¾ percent Friday following reports Gulf of Mexico production was increasing. Oil prices gains also were capped by weaker Chinese demand, an increase in shale oil rigs and production and a stronger U.S. dollar.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Sep 17
20 September, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices moved sharply higher last week bolstered by slow restoration of Hurricane Ida-related shutdowns and a much larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. oil inventories as reported by the EIA Wednesday. Concerns Hurricane Nicholas could disrupt production fell by the wayside after the storm passed without affecting production or mining capabilities. Up over 4% through Thursday, WTI crude oil prices fell ¾ percent Friday following reports Gulf of Mexico production was increasing. Oil prices gains also were capped by weaker Chinese demand, an increase in shale oil rigs and production and a stronger U.S. dollar.
Despite significantly lower Chinese imports, copper prices ended the week higher supported by steeply falling inventory levels at both the LME and Shanghai exchanges. Nickel prices, increasing over 7% on the week, moved higher on strong stainless steel- and EV-related demand, production cutbacks in China as well as on falling inventory levels. Increased shipping and power costs have also worked to increase base metal prices.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Sep 10
13 September, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Despite significantly lower Chinese imports, copper prices ended the week higher supported by steeply falling inventory levels at both the LME and Shanghai exchanges. Nickel prices, increasing over 7% on the week, moved higher on strong stainless steel- and EV-related demand, production cutbacks in China as well as on falling inventory levels. Increased shipping and power costs have also worked to increase base metal prices.
Oil prices moved higher last week supported by production shutdowns due to Hurricane Ida and renewed optimism of increased demand next year. Wednesday’s EIA report showed a much steeper-than-expected drop in oil inventories but also showed a greater-than-expected climb in gasoline stocks. The climb in gasoline inventories was attributed to reduced driving in the Northeast due to Tropical Storm Henri. Friday’s much weaker-than-expected U.S. payroll report sent WTI crude prices almost 1% lower cutting weekly gains by more than half.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Sep 3
07 September, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices moved higher last week supported by production shutdowns due to Hurricane Ida and renewed optimism of increased demand next year. Wednesday’s EIA report showed a much steeper-than-expected drop in oil inventories but also showed a greater-than-expected climb in gasoline stocks. The climb in gasoline inventories was attributed to reduced driving in the Northeast due to Tropical Storm Henri. Friday’s much weaker-than-expected U.S. payroll report sent WTI crude prices almost 1% lower cutting weekly gains by more than half.
Gold futures prices rose last week increasing over 1 ¼ percent Monday and Friday and only falling Wednesday. Prices rose in part reflecting overall investor sentiment that risks of significant changes in the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank’s monetary policy were minimal. Friday’s prepared remarks by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed this sentiment with Powell commenting the Fed would begin tapering its buyback program before year end while cautioning against setting policy based upon “a temporary fluctuation in inflation”.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Aug 27
30 August, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Gold futures prices rose last week increasing over 1 ¼ percent Monday and Friday and only falling Wednesday. Prices rose in part reflecting overall investor sentiment that risks of significant changes in the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank’s monetary policy were minimal. Friday’s prepared remarks by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed this sentiment with Powell commenting the Fed would begin tapering its buyback program before year end while cautioning against setting policy based upon “a temporary fluctuation in inflation”.
WTI crude oil prices fell every day last week, dropping no less than 1% each day and over 2% Thursday and Friday. Surging Delta-variant Covid-19 cases, weaker Chinese economic growth and declining Chinese oil demand, growing U.S. shale oil output and fears the Fed may tighten monetary policy before year end all acted to move prices lower. A significantly stronger U.S. dollar and OPEC+ oil production increases also weighed on prices while falling U.S. oil inventory levels had little effect.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Aug 20
23 August, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
WTI crude oil prices fell every day last week, dropping no less than 1% each day and over 2% Thursday and Friday. Surging Delta-variant Covid-19 cases, weaker Chinese economic growth and declining Chinese oil demand, growing U.S. shale oil output and fears the Fed may tighten monetary policy before year end all acted to move prices lower. A significantly stronger U.S. dollar and OPEC+ oil production increases also weighed on prices while falling U.S. oil inventory levels had little effect.
Gold prices dropped over 2% Monday, continuing their selloff from Friday’s much stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll report, but moved higher throughout the remainder of the week. Wednesday’s CPI report, showing slowing MoM inflation, reduced expectations the Fed would need to act sooner than later pushing prices higher. Prices dropped slightly Thursday following another record high PPI release but then moved sharply higher Friday after Michigan University’s consumer sentiment index dropped precipitously.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Aug 13
16 August, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Gold prices dropped over 2% Monday, continuing their selloff from Friday’s much stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll report, but moved higher throughout the remainder of the week. Wednesday’s CPI report, showing slowing MoM inflation, reduced expectations the Fed would need to act sooner than later pushing prices higher. Prices dropped slightly Thursday following another record high PPI release but then moved sharply higher Friday after Michigan University’s consumer sentiment index dropped precipitously.
Oil prices fell sharply last week pressured by surging Delta-variant coronavirus cases, weak Chinese economic reports, a surprise increase in U.S. oil inventories and a stronger U.S. dollar. Mid-East tension pushed prices higher Thursday but those gains were all but erased with Friday’s move lower.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Aug 6
09 August, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices fell sharply last week pressured by surging Delta-variant coronavirus cases, weak Chinese economic reports, a surprise increase in U.S. oil inventories and a stronger U.S. dollar. Mid-East tension pushed prices higher Thursday but those gains were all but erased with Friday’s move lower.
Oil prices continued to decline last week, falling even as Saudi Arabia and the UAE resolved their dispute regarding the UAE’s production quota. A much larger-than-expected increase in U.S. gasoline inventories overshadowed a decline in U.S. oil stocks, pushing WTI crude oil prices lower nearly 3% Wednesday. On Tuesday the IEA reiterated its call for OPEC+ to increase production, warning there would be a supply deficit by year end without the increase. A growing number of Delta-variant Covid-19 infections, potentially dampening demand, also helped move prices lower.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jul 16
26 July, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices continued to decline last week, falling even as Saudi Arabia and the UAE resolved their dispute regarding the UAE’s production quota. A much larger-than-expected increase in U.S. gasoline inventories overshadowed a decline in U.S. oil stocks, pushing WTI crude oil prices lower nearly 3% Wednesday. On Tuesday the IEA reiterated its call for OPEC+ to increase production, warning there would be a supply deficit by year end without the increase. A growing number of Delta-variant Covid-19 infections, potentially dampening demand, also helped move prices lower.
Oil prices mirrored U.S. stock markets falling sharply Monday and then recovering to end higher on the week. Growing Covid-19 fears from the spread of the Delta variant were the primary driver behind Monday's 7% drop in oil prices. The drop occurred despite an OPEC+ agreement increasing oil production by a restrained 400,000bpd each month starting August and ending September 2022. Receding Covid fears and, as a result, renewed supply-shortage concerns, drove prices higher the remainder of the week. A larger-than-expected increase in U.S. oil inventories was mostly offset by declining distillate and gasoline inventories.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jul 23
26 July, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices mirrored U.S. stock markets falling sharply Monday and then recovering to end higher on the week. Growing Covid-19 fears from the spread of the Delta variant were the primary driver behind Monday's 7% drop in oil prices. The drop occurred despite an OPEC+ agreement increasing oil production by a restrained 400,000bpd each month starting August and ending September 2022. Receding Covid fears and, as a result, renewed supply-shortage concerns, drove prices higher the remainder of the week. A larger-than-expected increase in U.S. oil inventories was mostly offset by declining distillate and gasoline inventories.
Gold prices moved higher last week powered by Wednesday’s FOMC announcement of unchanged accommodative monetary policy and of the Fed’s reluctance to increase rates in the foreseeable future. Slightly lower through Wednesday, gold prices rallied 1 ¾ percent Thursday powered by the Fed’s inaction and a weaker U.S. dollar. Friday saw gold prices give up some of Thursday’s gain precipitated by a stronger U.S. dollar.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jul 30
26 July, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Gold prices moved higher last week powered by Wednesday’s FOMC announcement of unchanged accommodative monetary policy and of the Fed’s reluctance to increase rates in the foreseeable future. Slightly lower through Wednesday, gold prices rallied 1 ¾ percent Thursday powered by the Fed’s inaction and a weaker U.S. dollar. Friday saw gold prices give up some of Thursday’s gain precipitated by a stronger U.S. dollar.
Reeling from OPEC+ failing to agree on revised production levels and growing Delta-variant Covid concerns, WTI oil prices fell nearly 4% through Wednesday before rallying over 3% the remainder of the week. Oil prices moved higher on Thursday thanks to a bullish EIA report showing a larger-than-expected drawdown in both oil and gasoline inventories as well as a greater-than-expected increase in gasoline demand.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jul 9
12 July, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Reeling from OPEC+ failing to agree on revised production levels and growing Delta-variant Covid concerns, WTI oil prices fell nearly 4% through Wednesday before rallying over 3% the remainder of the week. Oil prices moved higher on Thursday thanks to a bullish EIA report showing a larger-than-expected drawdown in both oil and gasoline inventories as well as a greater-than-expected increase in gasoline demand.
Down initially on demand-related concerns stemming from the Delta variant of coronavirus, oil prices moved higher the remainder of the week buoyed by OPEC+ forecasts of increasing demand and expectations OPEC+ would further decrease production cutbacks but at a slow pace. Meeting July 1, OPEC+ was unable to agree to production increases with the UAE preventing closure but with expectations an agreement will be reached this week.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jul 2 (1)
06 July, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Down initially on demand-related concerns stemming from the Delta variant of coronavirus, oil prices moved higher the remainder of the week buoyed by OPEC+ forecasts of increasing demand and expectations OPEC+ would further decrease production cutbacks but at a slow pace. Meeting July 1, OPEC+ was unable to agree to production increases with the UAE preventing closure but with expectations an agreement will be reached this week.
Oil prices moved higher again last week approaching 3-year highs. A larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. oil inventories, increased uncertainty regarding the relaxation of sanctions on Iran and a weaker U.S. dollar all combined to push prices higher. Expectations OPEC+, which meets next week, will increase production had little effect on prices with most market participants believing the increases will be restrained.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jun 25
28 June, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices moved higher again last week approaching 3-year highs. A larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. oil inventories, increased uncertainty regarding the relaxation of sanctions on Iran and a weaker U.S. dollar all combined to push prices higher. Expectations OPEC+, which meets next week, will increase production had little effect on prices with most market participants believing the increases will be restrained.
Copper prices suffered dual blows last week, reeling from China’s decision to release state reserves and from the Fed indicating it would move to increase rates sooner than later. China’s decision to release reserves acts to increase supply while the Fed’s apparent shift towards tightening increases expectations of slower economic growth while strengthening the U.S. dollar, both detriments to demand.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jun 18
21 June, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Copper prices suffered dual blows last week, reeling from China’s decision to release state reserves and from the Fed indicating it would move to increase rates sooner than later. China’s decision to release reserves acts to increase supply while the Fed’s apparent shift towards tightening increases expectations of slower economic growth while strengthening the U.S. dollar, both detriments to demand.
Oil prices continued their move higher last with Brent crude oil prices breaking $70/barrel. Lower-than-expected U.S. inventory levels, uncertainty regarding relaxation or removal of Iranian sanctions and OPEC+ signaling it expects growing oil demand to more than support its scheduled production increases combined to help move oil prices higher.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jun 4
14 June, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices continued their move higher last with Brent crude oil prices breaking $70/barrel. Lower-than-expected U.S. inventory levels, uncertainty regarding relaxation or removal of Iranian sanctions and OPEC+ signaling it expects growing oil demand to more than support its scheduled production increases combined to help move oil prices higher.
Gold prices finished the week lower, hurt by a stronger U.S. dollar and risk-on investor sentiment. Thursday’s greater-than-expected CPI release initially did little to affect gold prices. Friday, however, saw gold prices drop close to 1% as market participants adopted the “transitory inflation” view with increasing expectations the Fed will maintain its current aggressively accommodative monetary policy, diminishing safe haven demand for gold.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jun 11
14 June, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Gold prices finished the week lower, hurt by a stronger U.S. dollar and risk-on investor sentiment. Thursday’s greater-than-expected CPI release initially did little to affect gold prices. Friday, however, saw gold prices drop close to 1% as market participants adopted the “transitory inflation” view with increasing expectations the Fed will maintain its current aggressively accommodative monetary policy, diminishing safe haven demand for gold.
Gold prices moved higher last week, closing just under $1900 per ounce and pushing year-to-date returns into positive territory. Expectations the Fed will continue its aggressively accommodative monetary policy while downplaying inflation - potentially forcing very short-term yields below zero and perhaps undermining the strength of the U.S. dollar - lent strong support to gold prices. Continued cryptocurrency volatility also may have supported gold prices.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: May 28
01 June, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Gold prices moved higher last week, closing just under $1900 per ounce and pushing year-to-date returns into positive territory. Expectations the Fed will continue its aggressively accommodative monetary policy while downplaying inflation - potentially forcing very short-term yields below zero and perhaps undermining the strength of the U.S. dollar - lent strong support to gold prices. Continued cryptocurrency volatility also may have supported gold prices.
Growing concerns inflation may be an issue requiring the Fed to tighten monetary policy soon than later, increasing volatility in and adding uncertainty to stocks and other assets, helped move gold prices higher last week. Additionally, increased cryptocurrency volatility may have spurred cryptocurrency investors to move out of cryptocurrencies and into gold.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: May 21
24 May, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Growing concerns inflation may be an issue requiring the Fed to tighten monetary policy soon than later, increasing volatility in and adding uncertainty to stocks and other assets, helped move gold prices higher last week. Additionally, increased cryptocurrency volatility may have spurred cryptocurrency investors to move out of cryptocurrencies and into gold.
A volatile week for grain prices with double-digit declines in wheat and corn prices and with corn prices trading limit down Thursday. Wednesday's USDA WASDE report forecasted higher-than-expected global ending stocks for wheat and corn pressuring prices lower. A Mississippi river waterway blockage Thursday also moved corn prices lower while favorable US weather forecasts added to downward pressure for wheat prices. Soybean prices continue to be supported by strong demand.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: May 14
17 May, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
A volatile week for grain prices with double-digit declines in wheat and corn prices and with corn prices trading limit down Thursday. Wednesday's USDA WASDE report forecasted higher-than-expected global ending stocks for wheat and corn pressuring prices lower. A Mississippi river waterway blockage Thursday also moved corn prices lower while favorable US weather forecasts added to downward pressure for wheat prices. Soybean prices continue to be supported by strong demand.
Copper prices increased sharply last week, rising to record highs Friday of $4.75/pound, propelled by expectations of sustainable-energy and government-led infrastructure-spending demand as well as by falling inventory levels and continued production concerns. Aluminum prices also increased sharply last week. A weaker U.S. dollar supported base metal prices as well.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: May 7
10 May, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Copper prices increased sharply last week, rising to record highs Friday of $4.75/pound, propelled by expectations of sustainable-energy and government-led infrastructure-spending demand as well as by falling inventory levels and continued production concerns. Aluminum prices also increased sharply last week. A weaker U.S. dollar supported base metal prices as well.
Oil prices moved higher last week supported by OPEC+ meeting a day earlier than planned and quickly agreeing to maintain their plans of increasing oil production gradually over the next 3 months. Prices were also supported by a much smaller-than-expected increase in U.S. oil reserves and a much larger-than-expected drawdown in distillate inventories. Oil prices fell Friday perhaps over increasing concerns regarding record Covid-19 infections in India and perhaps on profit-taking. Natural gas prices rose on continued strong export demand and forecasts of warmer-than-usual temperatures in the U.S. over the next two weeks.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Apr 30
03 May, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices moved higher last week supported by OPEC+ meeting a day earlier than planned and quickly agreeing to maintain their plans of increasing oil production gradually over the next 3 months. Prices were also supported by a much smaller-than-expected increase in U.S. oil reserves and a much larger-than-expected drawdown in distillate inventories. Oil prices fell Friday perhaps over increasing concerns regarding record Covid-19 infections in India and perhaps on profit-taking. Natural gas prices rose on continued strong export demand and forecasts of warmer-than-usual temperatures in the U.S. over the next two weeks.
Grain prices moved sharply higher last week with both corn and soybean prices reaching 8-year highs. Cold and frosty weather in the Midwest and Plains states along with dry weather in Brazil and very strong Chinese demand all combined to push prices higher last week. Brazil, concerned about commodity inflation, suspended import duties on corn and soybeans while China, concerned about outsized demand for feed grains, issued guidelines to reduce the amount of corn and soymeal used in pork and poultry feed.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Apr 23
26 April, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Grain prices moved sharply higher last week with both corn and soybean prices reaching 8-year highs. Cold and frosty weather in the Midwest and Plains states along with dry weather in Brazil and very strong Chinese demand all combined to push prices higher last week. Brazil, concerned about commodity inflation, suspended import duties on corn and soybeans while China, concerned about outsized demand for feed grains, issued guidelines to reduce the amount of corn and soymeal used in pork and poultry feed.
Copper prices jumped almost 4% higher Monday following news Brazil, the largest copper exporter, closed its border for a month due to record number of coronavirus infections. A strong U.S. payroll report from the previous Friday also supported copper prices Monday. Copper mainly moved lower the remainder of the week with growing LME inventories increasing supply concerns and worries over more restrictive monetary policy in China increasing demand concerns. Nonetheless, a weaker U.S. dollar, dovish FOMC minutes and continued expectations of strong global growth helped push base metal prices 1% to 2.5% higher last week.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Apr 9
19 April, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Copper prices jumped almost 4% higher Monday following news Brazil, the largest copper exporter, closed its border for a month due to record number of coronavirus infections. A strong U.S. payroll report from the previous Friday also supported copper prices Monday. Copper mainly moved lower the remainder of the week with growing LME inventories increasing supply concerns and worries over more restrictive monetary policy in China increasing demand concerns. Nonetheless, a weaker U.S. dollar, dovish FOMC minutes and continued expectations of strong global growth helped push base metal prices 1% to 2.5% higher last week.
Oil prices moved significantly higher last week buoyed by stronger-than-expected U.S. and Chinese economic data, improved demand forecasts and a larger-than-expected decline in U.S. stockpiles. The EIA Petroleum Status Report, showing an almost 6 million barrel decrease in U.S. inventory levels while at the same time only showing a small increase in gasoline supplies, helped power WTI and Brent crude oil price almost 5% higher on Wednesday. Higher demand forecasts by OPEC, the EIA and the IEA and a weaker U.S. dollar also supported oil prices.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Apr 16
19 April, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices moved significantly higher last week buoyed by stronger-than-expected U.S. and Chinese economic data, improved demand forecasts and a larger-than-expected decline in U.S. stockpiles. The EIA Petroleum Status Report, showing an almost 6 million barrel decrease in U.S. inventory levels while at the same time only showing a small increase in gasoline supplies, helped power WTI and Brent crude oil price almost 5% higher on Wednesday. Higher demand forecasts by OPEC, the EIA and the IEA and a weaker U.S. dollar also supported oil prices.
Gold prices mirrored U.S. stock markets, moving lower early in the week and then rallying into the close. A stronger U.S. dollar and rising long-term U.S. interest rates pressured gold prices lower Monday and Tuesday while a reversal of those two factors Thursday and Friday pushed gold prices higher. President Biden’s announcement of his $2 trillion infrastructure package may have also supported gold prices.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Apr 1
05 April, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Gold prices mirrored U.S. stock markets, moving lower early in the week and then rallying into the close. A stronger U.S. dollar and rising long-term U.S. interest rates pressured gold prices lower Monday and Tuesday while a reversal of those two factors Thursday and Friday pushed gold prices higher. President Biden’s announcement of his $2 trillion infrastructure package may have also supported gold prices.
An extremely volatile week for oil prices, with WTI crude oil prices plummeting and surging 4% to 6% almost every day of the week. Slightly higher on Monday, WTI crude oil prices fell over 6% on Tuesday, reacting to new European restrictions and extended lockdowns due to increasing Covid-19 infections. Those losses were erased Wednesday with WTI crude oil prices jumping 6% mainly on news of a stuck ship blocking the Suez Canal. Increasing coronavirus-related concerns won the day Thursday with both Brent and WTI crude oil prices dropping 4%. News of a prolonged Suez Canal blockage took center stage Friday, pushing oil prices over 4% higher. For the week, WTI crude oil prices decreased 0.8%.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Mar 26
29 March, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
An extremely volatile week for oil prices, with WTI crude oil prices plummeting and surging 4% to 6% almost every day of the week. Slightly higher on Monday, WTI crude oil prices fell over 6% on Tuesday, reacting to new European restrictions and extended lockdowns due to increasing Covid-19 infections. Those losses were erased Wednesday with WTI crude oil prices jumping 6% mainly on news of a stuck ship blocking the Suez Canal. Increasing coronavirus-related concerns won the day Thursday with both Brent and WTI crude oil prices dropping 4%. News of a prolonged Suez Canal blockage took center stage Friday, pushing oil prices over 4% higher. For the week, WTI crude oil prices decreased 0.8%.
Growing concerns surrounding the pace of European economic recovery combined with increasing inventory levels pushed WTI crude oil prices sharply lower on the week. Down 1.5% through Wednesday, oil prices plummeted over 7% on Thursday following another increase in U.S. inventories, the IEA pronounced oil supplies are plentiful and as parts of Europe imposed new coronavirus-related lockdowns and restrictions. Prices moved off their lows on Friday, climbing over 2% but with WTI crude prices ending the week down almost 6.5%.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Mar 19
22 March, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Growing concerns surrounding the pace of European economic recovery combined with increasing inventory levels pushed WTI crude oil prices sharply lower on the week. Down 1.5% through Wednesday, oil prices plummeted over 7% on Thursday following another increase in U.S. inventories, the IEA pronounced oil supplies are plentiful and as parts of Europe imposed new coronavirus-related lockdowns and restrictions. Prices moved off their lows on Friday, climbing over 2% but with WTI crude prices ending the week down almost 6.5%.
Nickel prices, unchanged through Tuesday, plunged Wednesday and Thursday following reports of China’s Tsingshan Holding Group entering into a contract to supply 100,000 tonnes of nickel. The contract eliminated existing supply-shortage concerns and sent nickel prices down near 7% on both Wednesday and Thursday. Aluminum prices ended the week about 1% higher, increasing mainly on falling LME inventory levels.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Mar 5
15 March, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Nickel prices, unchanged through Tuesday, plunged Wednesday and Thursday following reports of China’s Tsingshan Holding Group entering into a contract to supply 100,000 tonnes of nickel. The contract eliminated existing supply-shortage concerns and sent nickel prices down near 7% on both Wednesday and Thursday. Aluminum prices ended the week about 1% higher, increasing mainly on falling LME inventory levels.
Down nearly 3% through Tuesday, WTI crude oil prices bounced off their lows on Thursday pushed higher by a bullish EIA report, a weakening U.S dollar and stronger-than-expected economic reports. Wednesday’s EIA report showed an increase in oil stocks but an outsized drop in distillate inventory increasing expectations of a post-Covid-19 demand increase for oil and its refined products. Passage and signing into law of the $1.9 trillion stimulus package on Thursday also supported oil prices.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Mar 12
15 March, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Down nearly 3% through Tuesday, WTI crude oil prices bounced off their lows on Thursday pushed higher by a bullish EIA report, a weakening U.S dollar and stronger-than-expected economic reports. Wednesday’s EIA report showed an increase in oil stocks but an outsized drop in distillate inventory increasing expectations of a post-Covid-19 demand increase for oil and its refined products. Passage and signing into law of the $1.9 trillion stimulus package on Thursday also supported oil prices.
Though base metal price changes were mixed last week, all base metal prices fell between 3% and 4% Friday as the U.S. dollar strengthened and amid increasing concerns of the effect of rising interest rates. Copper prices, up almost 5% through Thursday (and at 10-year highs) on expectations of post-pandemic economic growth and on concerns of supply shortages, fell 4% on Friday. Nickel prices, up just under a percent through Wednesday, ended the week down over 5%, possibly also affected by Elon Musk’s Thursday’s tweet saying Tesla would be switching some cars to iron-based batteries away from nickel-based.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Feb 26
01 March, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Though base metal price changes were mixed last week, all base metal prices fell between 3% and 4% Friday as the U.S. dollar strengthened and amid increasing concerns of the effect of rising interest rates. Copper prices, up almost 5% through Thursday (and at 10-year highs) on expectations of post-pandemic economic growth and on concerns of supply shortages, fell 4% on Friday. Nickel prices, up just under a percent through Wednesday, ended the week down over 5%, possibly also affected by Elon Musk’s Thursday’s tweet saying Tesla would be switching some cars to iron-based batteries away from nickel-based.
Oil prices moved higher again last week with WTI and Brent crude oil prices reaching levels not seen in over a year. Brent crude oil prices broke $60/barrel last week while WTI crude oil prices closed the week just below at $59/barrel (both May futures prices). Oil prices continue to be supported by continued larger-than-expected drawdowns in U.S and OECD inventory levels, strong Chinese demand, OPEC+ production restraint and increased expectations of passage of the $1.9 trillion U.S. stimulus package. Both WTI and Brent crude oil futures contracts continue to trade in backwardation indicating investor concern regarding possible supply shortages relative to prospective demand.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Feb 12
16 February, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices moved higher again last week with WTI and Brent crude oil prices reaching levels not seen in over a year. Brent crude oil prices broke $60/barrel last week while WTI crude oil prices closed the week just below at $59/barrel (both May futures prices). Oil prices continue to be supported by continued larger-than-expected drawdowns in U.S and OECD inventory levels, strong Chinese demand, OPEC+ production restraint and increased expectations of passage of the $1.9 trillion U.S. stimulus package. Both WTI and Brent crude oil futures contracts continue to trade in backwardation indicating investor concern regarding possible supply shortages relative to prospective demand.
Oil prices moved sharply higher last week supported by continued drawdowns in inventory levels, OPEC+ production restraint and increased expectations of passage of the $1.9 trillion U.S. stimulus package. Both WTI and Brent crude oil futures contracts are trading in backwardation indicating investor concern regarding possible supply shortages relative to prospective demand. Oil prices last week rose to levels not seen in more than a year.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Feb 5
08 February, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Oil prices moved sharply higher last week supported by continued drawdowns in inventory levels, OPEC+ production restraint and increased expectations of passage of the $1.9 trillion U.S. stimulus package. Both WTI and Brent crude oil futures contracts are trading in backwardation indicating investor concern regarding possible supply shortages relative to prospective demand. Oil prices last week rose to levels not seen in more than a year.
Grain prices moved sharply higher last week, reversing most of the previous week’s losses. Historically large corn sales to China l (as well as to Japan) were the primary reason for the increase in corn prices last week. Soybean prices also continue to be supported by stronger-than-expected exports to China as well as by concerns rain in Brazil will hamper soybean harvests. Wheat prices moved higher over Russian export restrictions and on concerns Argentina may restrict exports as well.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jan 29
01 February, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Grain prices moved sharply higher last week, reversing most of the previous week’s losses. Historically large corn sales to China l (as well as to Japan) were the primary reason for the increase in corn prices last week. Soybean prices also continue to be supported by stronger-than-expected exports to China as well as by concerns rain in Brazil will hamper soybean harvests. Wheat prices moved higher over Russian export restrictions and on concerns Argentina may restrict exports as well.
Grain prices moved significantly lower last week, reversing most of the gains recorded the previous week. Favorable rainfall in South America was primarily the trigger for the steep selloff in corn and soybean prices, with increased corn and soybean plantings in South America adding to supply expectations and helping to offset low global stock levels and forecasted harvest yields.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jan 22
25 January, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Grain prices moved significantly lower last week, reversing most of the gains recorded the previous week. Favorable rainfall in South America was primarily the trigger for the steep selloff in corn and soybean prices, with increased corn and soybean plantings in South America adding to supply expectations and helping to offset low global stock levels and forecasted harvest yields.
Grain prices moved sharply higher Tuesday following the release of the USDA’s WASDE report. Corn prices closed limit-up Tuesday (an over 5% increase on the day) reacting to WASDE numbers showing lower-than-expected ending stock levels and lower-than-expected harvest yields. Wheat prices, too, benefited from the report which showed lower-than-expected inventory levels but also continue to be supported by adverse South America weather conditions and Russian export restrictions.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jan 15
18 January, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Grain prices moved sharply higher Tuesday following the release of the USDA’s WASDE report. Corn prices closed limit-up Tuesday (an over 5% increase on the day) reacting to WASDE numbers showing lower-than-expected ending stock levels and lower-than-expected harvest yields. Wheat prices, too, benefited from the report which showed lower-than-expected inventory levels but also continue to be supported by adverse South America weather conditions and Russian export restrictions.
Concerns over stalled OPEC+ production talks gave way to bullish optimism with Saudi Arabia announcing unilateral production cutbacks of a 1 million barrels/day beginning February. WTI crude oil prices, down almost 2% Monday (March futures contract), increased almost 5% and closed above $50/barrel on Tuesday following Saudi Arabia’s announcement. A larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. oil inventories and strong Asian demand also supported oil prices with WTI crude oil prices finishing the week almost 8% higher.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jan 8
11 January, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
Concerns over stalled OPEC+ production talks gave way to bullish optimism with Saudi Arabia announcing unilateral production cutbacks of a 1 million barrels/day beginning February. WTI crude oil prices, down almost 2% Monday (March futures contract), increased almost 5% and closed above $50/barrel on Tuesday following Saudi Arabia’s announcement. A larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. oil inventories and strong Asian demand also supported oil prices with WTI crude oil prices finishing the week almost 8% higher.
President Trump’s signing of the $900 billion stimulus package and a weaker U.S. dollar helped move precious metal prices higher last week.Increased “risk-on” investor sentiment as evidenced by record-high levels of U.S. stock markets helped limit gold price gains. Gold prices finished the year up slightly more than 24% and platinum prices recorded a gain on the year of almost 11%.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Dec 31
04 January, 2021 | Jeff Klearman
President Trump’s signing of the $900 billion stimulus package and a weaker U.S. dollar helped move precious metal prices higher last week.Increased “risk-on” investor sentiment as evidenced by record-high levels of U.S. stock markets helped limit gold price gains. Gold prices finished the year up slightly more than 24% and platinum prices recorded a gain on the year of almost 11%.
Down almost 4.5% through Tuesday on increased travel restrictions resulting from a new coronavirus variant, WTI crude oil prices rallied almost 2.5% on Wednesday after the EIA reported an unexpected drop in both U.S oil and gasoline inventories. WTI crude oil prices were down 2% on the week with increasing coronavirus concerns and continued uncertainty of a U.S. relief package pressuring oil prices lower despite growing Covid-19 vaccinations, news of a UK-EU trade agreement and relatively decent U.S economic data.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Dec 24
28 December, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Down almost 4.5% through Tuesday on increased travel restrictions resulting from a new coronavirus variant, WTI crude oil prices rallied almost 2.5% on Wednesday after the EIA reported an unexpected drop in both U.S oil and gasoline inventories. WTI crude oil prices were down 2% on the week with increasing coronavirus concerns and continued uncertainty of a U.S. relief package pressuring oil prices lower despite growing Covid-19 vaccinations, news of a UK-EU trade agreement and relatively decent U.S economic data.
Base metal prices were all higher last week benefiting from strong Chinese economic reports (including industrial production and retail sales), increased hopes a U.S. stimulus package, continued accommodative U.S. monetary policy, positive Covid-19 vaccine news, an extension of UK-EU trade talks and a weaker U.S. dollar. Copper prices are at 8-year highs while nickel prices, spurred by stainless steel and battery demand, are close to year-to-date highs.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Dec 18
21 December, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Base metal prices were all higher last week benefiting from strong Chinese economic reports (including industrial production and retail sales), increased hopes a U.S. stimulus package, continued accommodative U.S. monetary policy, positive Covid-19 vaccine news, an extension of UK-EU trade talks and a weaker U.S. dollar. Copper prices are at 8-year highs while nickel prices, spurred by stainless steel and battery demand, are close to year-to-date highs.
Wheat prices soared on the back of Thursday’s USDA WASDE report showing an unexpected reduction in world wheat inventories. Wheat prices were also supported by reports Russia may scale back exports to help reduce food inflation within Russia. Soybean prices, pushed lower earlier in the week on favorable South America weather forecasts, moved off their lows following the WASDE report showing a reduction in world soybean inventories. Corn prices continued to benefit from strong Chinese demand.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Dec 11
14 December, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Wheat prices soared on the back of Thursday’s USDA WASDE report showing an unexpected reduction in world wheat inventories. Wheat prices were also supported by reports Russia may scale back exports to help reduce food inflation within Russia. Soybean prices, pushed lower earlier in the week on favorable South America weather forecasts, moved off their lows following the WASDE report showing a reduction in world soybean inventories. Corn prices continued to benefit from strong Chinese demand.
Rebounding off last week’s 5-month low, gold prices rose over 2% on Tuesday buoyed by a weakening U.S. dollar, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments that the state of the economy was extraordinarily uncertain and on increased hopes and expectations of a congressional stimulus package. Silver and platinum prices followed gold and base metal prices higher.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Dec 4
07 December, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Rebounding off last week’s 5-month low, gold prices rose over 2% on Tuesday buoyed by a weakening U.S. dollar, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments that the state of the economy was extraordinarily uncertain and on increased hopes and expectations of a congressional stimulus package. Silver and platinum prices followed gold and base metal prices higher.
Crude oil prices followed U.S. stock markets moving sharply higher early in the week supported by increased demand expectations resulting from positive Covid-19 vaccine news and on the back of news regarding a possible Janet Yellen nomination as treasury secretary. Wednesday’s unexpected decline in U.S. oil inventories and growing expectations OPEC+ would delay production increases at its upcoming Nov 30th meeting, helped push oil prices to 8-month highs at week’s end.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Nov 27
30 November, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Crude oil prices followed U.S. stock markets moving sharply higher early in the week supported by increased demand expectations resulting from positive Covid-19 vaccine news and on the back of news regarding a possible Janet Yellen nomination as treasury secretary. Wednesday’s unexpected decline in U.S. oil inventories and growing expectations OPEC+ would delay production increases at its upcoming Nov 30th meeting, helped push oil prices to 8-month highs at week’s end.
Gold prices, only slightly lower through Wednesday last week, fell 0.6% on Thursday following Pfizer’s updated, higher vaccine effectiveness and increased outflows from U.S. gold ETPs. Silver prices followed gold prices. Platinum prices rose sharply benefiting from both a weaker U.S. dollar and reports from the WPIC of a significant platinum supply deficit.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Nov 20
23 November, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Gold prices, only slightly lower through Wednesday last week, fell 0.6% on Thursday following Pfizer’s updated, higher vaccine effectiveness and increased outflows from U.S. gold ETPs. Silver prices followed gold prices. Platinum prices rose sharply benefiting from both a weaker U.S. dollar and reports from the WPIC of a significant platinum supply deficit.
Crude oil prices moved sharply higher through Wednesday last week supported by Pfizer’s positive vaccine results, a much larger-than-expected increase in API’s crude oil inventory report and talk OPEC+ may maintain current production cutback levels beyond January next year. Thursday’s EIA report showing an unexpected increase in oil inventories combined with the IEA’s and OPEC’s forecast for lower demand through the end of the year pushed crude prices off their highs through the remainder of the week.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Nov 13
16 November, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Crude oil prices moved sharply higher through Wednesday last week supported by Pfizer’s positive vaccine results, a much larger-than-expected increase in API’s crude oil inventory report and talk OPEC+ may maintain current production cutback levels beyond January next year. Thursday’s EIA report showing an unexpected increase in oil inventories combined with the IEA’s and OPEC’s forecast for lower demand through the end of the year pushed crude prices off their highs through the remainder of the week.
Up over 5% through Tuesday on much greater-than-expected declines in U.S. oil inventories and reports Russia would consider extending production cutbacks, WTI oil prices fell the remainder of the week with increased coronavirus-related demand concerns and falling expectations of a large U.S. stimulus package.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Nov 6
09 November, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Up over 5% through Tuesday on much greater-than-expected declines in U.S. oil inventories and reports Russia would consider extending production cutbacks, WTI oil prices fell the remainder of the week with increased coronavirus-related demand concerns and falling expectations of a large U.S. stimulus package.
WTI crude oil prices moved sharply lower last week only pausing briefly on Tuesday with Gulf platform shutdowns due to tropical storm Zeta. Growing global Covid-19 cases combined with new restrictions and lockdowns in Europe as well as a much bigger-than-expected increase in U.S. oil inventories helped move WTI prices down 10% last week. A much stronger U.S. dollar also pressured oil prices lower.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Oct 30
02 November, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
WTI crude oil prices moved sharply lower last week only pausing briefly on Tuesday with Gulf platform shutdowns due to tropical storm Zeta. Growing global Covid-19 cases combined with new restrictions and lockdowns in Europe as well as a much bigger-than-expected increase in U.S. oil inventories helped move WTI prices down 10% last week. A much stronger U.S. dollar also pressured oil prices lower.
Wheat prices moved sharply higher again last week as a result of continuing dry weather concerns in the U.S., South America and Russia and from strong global demand. Soybean and corn prices moved higher as well supported by continued strong demand. Corn prices also benefited from some concerns the Brazilian corn crop would be planted later than usual. A weaker U.S. dollar also supported grain prices.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Oct 23
26 October, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Wheat prices moved sharply higher again last week as a result of continuing dry weather concerns in the U.S., South America and Russia and from strong global demand. Soybean and corn prices moved higher as well supported by continued strong demand. Corn prices also benefited from some concerns the Brazilian corn crop would be planted later than usual. A weaker U.S. dollar also supported grain prices.
Down nearly 3% Monday on the back of increased production out of Norway, Libya and the Gulf, WTI crude oil prices jumped nearly 2% both Tuesday and Wednesday after much larger-than-expected China import numbers. Demand concerns prompted by reduced hopes of Congress passing a stimulus package and growing Covid-19 cases pushed WTI crude oil prices lower the remainder of the week
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Oct 16
19 October, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Down nearly 3% Monday on the back of increased production out of Norway, Libya and the Gulf, WTI crude oil prices jumped nearly 2% both Tuesday and Wednesday after much larger-than-expected China import numbers. Demand concerns prompted by reduced hopes of Congress passing a stimulus package and growing Covid-19 cases pushed WTI crude oil prices lower the remainder of the week
A combination of factors moved crude oil prices higher last week including Gulf of Mexico production shutdowns due to Tropical Storm Delta, Norway production reduction due to striking oil workers, President Trump’s early return to the White House and revived optimism over a congressional stimulus package.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Oct 9
12 October, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
A combination of factors moved crude oil prices higher last week including Gulf of Mexico production shutdowns due to Tropical Storm Delta, Norway production reduction due to striking oil workers, President Trump’s early return to the White House and revived optimism over a congressional stimulus package.
Down early in the week on better-than-expected harvest progress and lack of China export demand, grain prices surged on Wednesday after the release of a quarterly USDA report showing much-lower-than-expected supply levels of wheat, corn and soybeans. Kansas wheat jumped 7% and corn prices increased 4% on Wednesday as a result of the report.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Oct 2
05 October, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Down early in the week on better-than-expected harvest progress and lack of China export demand, grain prices surged on Wednesday after the release of a quarterly USDA report showing much-lower-than-expected supply levels of wheat, corn and soybeans. Kansas wheat jumped 7% and corn prices increased 4% on Wednesday as a result of the report.
Precious metal prices moved lower last week with silver and platinum prices down double digits. Increasing Covid-19 cases along with expectations of renewed lockdown restrictions in Europe as well as in the U.S. pushed the U.S. dollar sharply higher versus the Euro and British pound exerting strong downward pressure on precious metal prices.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Sep 25
28 September, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Precious metal prices moved lower last week with silver and platinum prices down double digits. Increasing Covid-19 cases along with expectations of renewed lockdown restrictions in Europe as well as in the U.S. pushed the U.S. dollar sharply higher versus the Euro and British pound exerting strong downward pressure on precious metal prices.
WTI crude oil prices moved higher throughout the week, bolstered by falling U.S. inventory levels, Hurricane Sally related production cutbacks, OPEC+ moves to ensure cutback compliance and a weaker U.S. dollar. Stronger-than-expected Chinese economic numbers also supported oil prices.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Sep 18
21 September, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
WTI crude oil prices moved higher throughout the week, bolstered by falling U.S. inventory levels, Hurricane Sally related production cutbacks, OPEC+ moves to ensure cutback compliance and a weaker U.S. dollar. Stronger-than-expected Chinese economic numbers also supported oil prices.
WTI crude oil prices mirrored U.S. stock markets last week plunging over 7% on Tuesday, bouncing back over 3% on Wednesday and then declining about 2% Thursday through Friday. Increasing demand concerns driven by renewed Covid-19 concerns, higher U.S. oil inventory levels, OPEC+ production cutback non-compliance and weaker China buying all weighed on crude oil markets.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Sep 11
14 September, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
WTI crude oil prices mirrored U.S. stock markets last week plunging over 7% on Tuesday, bouncing back over 3% on Wednesday and then declining about 2% Thursday through Friday. Increasing demand concerns driven by renewed Covid-19 concerns, higher U.S. oil inventory levels, OPEC+ production cutback non-compliance and weaker China buying all weighed on crude oil markets.
WTI Crude oil prices, down slightly through Tuesday, fell almost 3% on Wednesday despite a much-larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. oil inventories as reported by the EIA and then continued to fall through Friday, finishing the week down 7%. Planned refinery maintenance shutdowns, increased production after Hurricane Laura and lower-than-expected demand for gasoline and continued coronavirus demand concerns all pressured oil prices lower.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Sep 4
08 September, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
WTI Crude oil prices, down slightly through Tuesday, fell almost 3% on Wednesday despite a much-larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. oil inventories as reported by the EIA and then continued to fall through Friday, finishing the week down 7%. Planned refinery maintenance shutdowns, increased production after Hurricane Laura and lower-than-expected demand for gasoline and continued coronavirus demand concerns all pressured oil prices lower.
BCI vs GSCI which index is the right choice as either an investment or benchmark? Unlike stocks and bonds, commodities do not lend themselves to indexing in an immediately intuitive fashion. Read more on the relative importance, perspective, and purpose of commodities.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Investment Cases
Will the Real Commodities Index Please Stand Up?
01 September, 2020 | GraniteShares
BCI vs GSCI which index is the right choice as either an investment or benchmark? Unlike stocks and bonds, commodities do not lend themselves to indexing in an immediately intuitive fashion. Read more on the relative importance, perspective, and purpose of commodities.
Gabriel Pincus of GA Pincus Funds, and an investor in the GraniteShares Bloomberg Commodity Broad Strategy No K-1 ETF (COMB) speaks with Will Rhind, Founder and CEO of GraniteShares ETFs, to answer some questions about his strategies and use of ETFs.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Videos
Expert Insight - Gabriel Pincus on GA Pincus Fund
01 September, 2020 | GraniteShares
Gabriel Pincus of GA Pincus Funds, and an investor in the GraniteShares Bloomberg Commodity Broad Strategy No K-1 ETF (COMB) speaks with Will Rhind, Founder and CEO of GraniteShares ETFs, to answer some questions about his strategies and use of ETFs.
U.S. stock markets moved higher last week with both the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite Index closing at all-time highs and with the Dow Jones Industrial Average finishing the week flat on the year.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Metals & Markets Update #53
31 August, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
U.S. stock markets moved higher last week with both the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite Index closing at all-time highs and with the Dow Jones Industrial Average finishing the week flat on the year.
Moving higher on much-stronger-than-expected housing starts data, the S&P 500 Index reached an all-time closing high on Tuesday, surpassing its record closing last set in February of this year. Wednesday’s release of FOMC minutes pushed the S&P 500 Index off its record revealing Fed concerns about economic recovery.
Topic: Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commoditized Wisdom: Metals & Markets Update #52
24 August, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Moving higher on much-stronger-than-expected housing starts data, the S&P 500 Index reached an all-time closing high on Tuesday, surpassing its record closing last set in February of this year. Wednesday’s release of FOMC minutes pushed the S&P 500 Index off its record revealing Fed concerns about economic recovery.
A somewhat choppy week for U.S. stock markets with the S&P 500 Index striving for but not reaching record highs on Wednesday. Despite stronger-than-expected U.S. economic reports (including lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims, strong retail sales and industrial production reports) and a falling number of new Covid-19 cases and deaths, U.S. stock markets struggled to move higher last week. Concerns surrounding the legality of President Trump’s executive orders combined with still-stalled congressional coronavirus-related stimulus negotiations and, perhaps, higher-than-expected PPI, CPI and wage inflation numbers may have limited stock market gains. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate moved higher all through the week, reacting to corporate and government supply pressures, higher-than-expected inflation numbers and strong U.S. economic reports. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 0.6% to 3,372.85, the Nasdaq Composite index increased 0.1% to 11,019.30, the 10-year U.S. interest rate increased 14 bps to 71 bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.4%.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Aug 14
17 August, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
A somewhat choppy week for U.S. stock markets with the S&P 500 Index striving for but not reaching record highs on Wednesday. Despite stronger-than-expected U.S. economic reports (including lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims, strong retail sales and industrial production reports) and a falling number of new Covid-19 cases and deaths, U.S. stock markets struggled to move higher last week. Concerns surrounding the legality of President Trump’s executive orders combined with still-stalled congressional coronavirus-related stimulus negotiations and, perhaps, higher-than-expected PPI, CPI and wage inflation numbers may have limited stock market gains. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate moved higher all through the week, reacting to corporate and government supply pressures, higher-than-expected inflation numbers and strong U.S. economic reports. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 0.6% to 3,372.85, the Nasdaq Composite index increased 0.1% to 11,019.30, the 10-year U.S. interest rate increased 14 bps to 71 bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 0.4%.
Against a backdrop of better-than-expected economic reports and earning results and indications new Covid-19 cases may be falling, U.S. stock markets all moved higher again last week despite concerns over increased U.S.-China frictions and stalled congressional progess on additional coronavirus relief funds. Better-than-expected factory orders and ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing index numbers combined with lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims and a stronger-than-expected payroll report helped move U.S. equity markets higher. Earning results reported last week were predominantly positive also helping move equity markets higher. Early-in-the-week optimism that congress would reach agreement on additional coronavirus-related relief funds faded as the week ended with no progress, but was slightly ameliorated with the Trump administration announcing the President may take executive action to extend existing programs. Both the U.S. dollar and the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate moved off their lows reached earlier in the week on stronger-than-expected economic reports and signs the number of new Covid-19 cases may be decreasing. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite index each increased 2.5% to 3,351.28 and 11,010.98, respectively. the 10-year U.S. interest rate increased 4 bps to 57 bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) was unchanged.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Aug 07
10 August, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Against a backdrop of better-than-expected economic reports and earning results and indications new Covid-19 cases may be falling, U.S. stock markets all moved higher again last week despite concerns over increased U.S.-China frictions and stalled congressional progess on additional coronavirus relief funds. Better-than-expected factory orders and ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing index numbers combined with lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims and a stronger-than-expected payroll report helped move U.S. equity markets higher. Earning results reported last week were predominantly positive also helping move equity markets higher. Early-in-the-week optimism that congress would reach agreement on additional coronavirus-related relief funds faded as the week ended with no progress, but was slightly ameliorated with the Trump administration announcing the President may take executive action to extend existing programs. Both the U.S. dollar and the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate moved off their lows reached earlier in the week on stronger-than-expected economic reports and signs the number of new Covid-19 cases may be decreasing. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite index each increased 2.5% to 3,351.28 and 11,010.98, respectively. the 10-year U.S. interest rate increased 4 bps to 57 bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) was unchanged.
All three major U.S. stock indexes ended higher (moving in a zig-zag fashion), the U.S. dollar continued to weaken and the 10-year U.S Treasury rate fell last week as investors digested earnings and economic reports, FOMC statements, growing Covid-19 cases and congressional stimulus bill progress. Earnings reports, though generally mixed, provided strong support for U.S. stock markets with four major technology companies reporting better-than-expected results after the market on Thursday. Apple results were particularly strong, pushing the share price of Apple over 10% higher on Friday and raising its market capitalization to over $1.8 trillion. Comments by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell following the end of a 2-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to maintain aggressive monetary policy to support maximum employment and price stability. Chairman Powell also said the U.S. economy faces a long road to recovery, that the virus will determine the path of that recovery and emphasized the importance of fiscal policy to support the economy. Economic reports last week were also mixed with pending home sales, consumer spending and durable goods orders reports all better-than-expected while weekly jobless claims were slightly higher than expected. The first estimate of 2nd quarter GDP, released Thursday, posted its all-time greatest quarterly contraction of 32.7%, though this was slightly better than expectations. Markets also focused on Friday’s expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits and congressional negotiations to extend them and implement a phase 4 coronavirus stimulus package. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.7% to 3,271.12, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 3.7% to 10,745.27, the 10-year U.S. interest rate fell 6 bps to 53bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened another 1.2%.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jul 31
03 August, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
All three major U.S. stock indexes ended higher (moving in a zig-zag fashion), the U.S. dollar continued to weaken and the 10-year U.S Treasury rate fell last week as investors digested earnings and economic reports, FOMC statements, growing Covid-19 cases and congressional stimulus bill progress. Earnings reports, though generally mixed, provided strong support for U.S. stock markets with four major technology companies reporting better-than-expected results after the market on Thursday. Apple results were particularly strong, pushing the share price of Apple over 10% higher on Friday and raising its market capitalization to over $1.8 trillion. Comments by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell following the end of a 2-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to maintain aggressive monetary policy to support maximum employment and price stability. Chairman Powell also said the U.S. economy faces a long road to recovery, that the virus will determine the path of that recovery and emphasized the importance of fiscal policy to support the economy. Economic reports last week were also mixed with pending home sales, consumer spending and durable goods orders reports all better-than-expected while weekly jobless claims were slightly higher than expected. The first estimate of 2nd quarter GDP, released Thursday, posted its all-time greatest quarterly contraction of 32.7%, though this was slightly better than expectations. Markets also focused on Friday’s expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits and congressional negotiations to extend them and implement a phase 4 coronavirus stimulus package. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.7% to 3,271.12, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 3.7% to 10,745.27, the 10-year U.S. interest rate fell 6 bps to 53bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened another 1.2%.
Riding on the previous week’s momentum, U.S. stock markets moved higher on Monday with the Nasdaq Composite Index reaching another record high. Increased investor optimism spurred by the EU’s passage of an $860 billion coronavirus recovery fund, increased hopes of a phase 4 U.S. coronavirus stimulus package and positive developments regarding a Covid-19 vaccine helped move the S&P 500 Index higher through Wednesday. Despite a strong Microsoft earnings report after the close on Wednesday, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite Index moved lower on Thursday with the Nasdaq Composite Index falling over 2%. A larger-than-hoped-for jobless claims number, new U.S-China frictions resulting in the closing of the China consulate in Houston, rising Covid-19 cases and the rotation out of tech into cyclical stocks all contributed to Thursday’s as well as Friday’s U.S. stock market declines. The U.S. dollar (as measured by the U.S. Dollar Index – DXY) weakened significantly over the week, pressured lower by increased concerns over the growing number of U.S. Covid-19 cases, uncertainty regarding a phase 4 coronavirus stimulus package and expectations EU GDP growth will significantly outpace U.S. GDP growth over the next year. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index decreased 0.3% to 3,215.63, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.3% to 10,363.18, the 10-year U.S. interest rate fell 4 bps to 59bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 1.7%.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jul 24
27 July, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Riding on the previous week’s momentum, U.S. stock markets moved higher on Monday with the Nasdaq Composite Index reaching another record high. Increased investor optimism spurred by the EU’s passage of an $860 billion coronavirus recovery fund, increased hopes of a phase 4 U.S. coronavirus stimulus package and positive developments regarding a Covid-19 vaccine helped move the S&P 500 Index higher through Wednesday. Despite a strong Microsoft earnings report after the close on Wednesday, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite Index moved lower on Thursday with the Nasdaq Composite Index falling over 2%. A larger-than-hoped-for jobless claims number, new U.S-China frictions resulting in the closing of the China consulate in Houston, rising Covid-19 cases and the rotation out of tech into cyclical stocks all contributed to Thursday’s as well as Friday’s U.S. stock market declines. The U.S. dollar (as measured by the U.S. Dollar Index – DXY) weakened significantly over the week, pressured lower by increased concerns over the growing number of U.S. Covid-19 cases, uncertainty regarding a phase 4 coronavirus stimulus package and expectations EU GDP growth will significantly outpace U.S. GDP growth over the next year. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index decreased 0.3% to 3,215.63, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.3% to 10,363.18, the 10-year U.S. interest rate fell 4 bps to 59bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the U.S. Dollar index - DXY) weakened 1.7%.
U.S. stock markets continued to struggle with concerns over increasing U.S. Covid-19 cases versus strong economic reports and hopeful news regarding development of a Covid-19 vaccine. Covid-19 concerns - sharpened by Carlifornia reopening rollbacks - and anxiety surrounding earnings reports for major bank and tech stocks pushed U.S. stock markets lower on Monday, with the Nasdaq Compositie Index significantly underperforming the S&P 500 Index. Those losses were more than reversed on Tuesday and Wednesday after better-than-expected earnings releases from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, positive Covid-19 vaccine news from 3 pharmaceutical/biotech companies, higher-than-expected CPI and stronger-than-expected industrial production reports. A much-larger-than expected increase in retail sales on Thursday was offset by continued high jobless claims with U.S. Stock markets mainly unchanged the remainder of the week. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.3% to close at 3,224.73, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.1% to 10,503.19, the 10-year U.S. interest rate fell 1 bp to 63bps and the U.S. dollar (as
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jul 17
20 July, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
U.S. stock markets continued to struggle with concerns over increasing U.S. Covid-19 cases versus strong economic reports and hopeful news regarding development of a Covid-19 vaccine. Covid-19 concerns - sharpened by Carlifornia reopening rollbacks - and anxiety surrounding earnings reports for major bank and tech stocks pushed U.S. stock markets lower on Monday, with the Nasdaq Compositie Index significantly underperforming the S&P 500 Index. Those losses were more than reversed on Tuesday and Wednesday after better-than-expected earnings releases from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, positive Covid-19 vaccine news from 3 pharmaceutical/biotech companies, higher-than-expected CPI and stronger-than-expected industrial production reports. A much-larger-than expected increase in retail sales on Thursday was offset by continued high jobless claims with U.S. Stock markets mainly unchanged the remainder of the week. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.3% to close at 3,224.73, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.1% to 10,503.19, the 10-year U.S. interest rate fell 1 bp to 63bps and the U.S. dollar (as
A see-saw week for U.S. stock markets as investors struggled with optimism over economic recovery versus growing concerns over increasing Covid-19 cases. Coming off the July 4th holiday week, a surging Chinese stock market and stronger-than-expected PMI and ISM services index numbers, the S&P 500 Index increased 1.6% on Monday only to see most of those gains reversed on Tuesday after the Trump administration called for a much-smaller-than-talked-about additional stimulus package and U.S. Federal Reserve officials voiced concerns that a resurgence of coronavirus cases could derail economic recovery. The S&P 500 Index rose about 0.6% on Wednesday on no real news only to see those gains more than reversed on a larger-than-expected jobless claims report and continued concerns surrounding increasing Covid-19 cases. Data suggesting Gilead’s remdesivir may help reduce Covid-19 mortalities helped move the S&P 500 Index over 1% higher on Friday. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.8% to close at 3,184.04, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 4.0% to 10,617.44, the 10-year U.S. interest rate fell 3 bps to 64bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the U.S. Dollar index – DXY) weakened 0.7%.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jul 10
13 July, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
A see-saw week for U.S. stock markets as investors struggled with optimism over economic recovery versus growing concerns over increasing Covid-19 cases. Coming off the July 4th holiday week, a surging Chinese stock market and stronger-than-expected PMI and ISM services index numbers, the S&P 500 Index increased 1.6% on Monday only to see most of those gains reversed on Tuesday after the Trump administration called for a much-smaller-than-talked-about additional stimulus package and U.S. Federal Reserve officials voiced concerns that a resurgence of coronavirus cases could derail economic recovery. The S&P 500 Index rose about 0.6% on Wednesday on no real news only to see those gains more than reversed on a larger-than-expected jobless claims report and continued concerns surrounding increasing Covid-19 cases. Data suggesting Gilead’s remdesivir may help reduce Covid-19 mortalities helped move the S&P 500 Index over 1% higher on Friday. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.8% to close at 3,184.04, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 4.0% to 10,617.44, the 10-year U.S. interest rate fell 3 bps to 64bps and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the U.S. Dollar index – DXY) weakened 0.7%.
Monday’s and Tuesday’s much-stronger-than-expected pending home sales and consumer confidence numbers combined with Boeing’s successful 737 Max test flight propelled the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite Index to their best quartly performance since 1998 and 2001, respectively. Better-than-expected PMI and ISM manufacturing index releases on Wednesday and a much-stronger than-expected payroll report on Thursday pushed U.S. stock markets higher the remainder of the holiday-shortened week, though gains were muted because of growing concerns surrounding increasing COVID-19 cases. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 4.0% to 3,130.01, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 4.6% to 10,207.63, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 2bps to 0.67% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY Index) weakened 0.4%.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jul 2
06 July, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Monday’s and Tuesday’s much-stronger-than-expected pending home sales and consumer confidence numbers combined with Boeing’s successful 737 Max test flight propelled the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite Index to their best quartly performance since 1998 and 2001, respectively. Better-than-expected PMI and ISM manufacturing index releases on Wednesday and a much-stronger than-expected payroll report on Thursday pushed U.S. stock markets higher the remainder of the holiday-shortened week, though gains were muted because of growing concerns surrounding increasing COVID-19 cases. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 4.0% to 3,130.01, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 4.6% to 10,207.63, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 2bps to 0.67% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY Index) weakened 0.4%.
Better-than-expected economic reports and continued optimism regarding a V-shaped economic recovery pushed S&P 500 Index 1.1% higher through Tuesday and helped the Nasdaq Composite Index reach new record closing levels. Reports of increasing Covid-19 cases, Trump administration threats of EU import tariffs and the IMF’s updated and significantly lower global economic growth forecast calling for a contraction of nearly 5% caught the market’s attention on Wednesday pushing the S&P 500 Index down 2.6%. Though a portion of those losses were reversed on Thursday as banks stocks rallied on news bank regulators would be relaxing certain capital restrictions, record daily increases in Covid-19 cases and reports that Florida and Texas would be rolling back some easing measures on Friday increased concerns regarding the strength and speed of the recovery of US and global economies pushing the S&P 500 Index down another 2.4%. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index fell 2.9% to 3,009.05, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate decreased 5bps to 0.65% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY Index) weakened slightly, falling 0.1%.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jun 26
29 June, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Better-than-expected economic reports and continued optimism regarding a V-shaped economic recovery pushed S&P 500 Index 1.1% higher through Tuesday and helped the Nasdaq Composite Index reach new record closing levels. Reports of increasing Covid-19 cases, Trump administration threats of EU import tariffs and the IMF’s updated and significantly lower global economic growth forecast calling for a contraction of nearly 5% caught the market’s attention on Wednesday pushing the S&P 500 Index down 2.6%. Though a portion of those losses were reversed on Thursday as banks stocks rallied on news bank regulators would be relaxing certain capital restrictions, record daily increases in Covid-19 cases and reports that Florida and Texas would be rolling back some easing measures on Friday increased concerns regarding the strength and speed of the recovery of US and global economies pushing the S&P 500 Index down another 2.4%. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index fell 2.9% to 3,009.05, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate decreased 5bps to 0.65% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY Index) weakened slightly, falling 0.1%.
Garnering support from the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank’s widening of its corporate buyback program to include individual bonds and much-stronger-than-expected retail sales and and industrial production reports, the S&P 500 increased almost 3% through Tuesday. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony in front of the Senate and House on Tuesday and Wednesday imploring congress to continue its fiscal stimulus efforts as well as increased fears of a coronavirus second wave (exacerbated by the W.H.O’s proclamation that the coronavirus has entered a new and dangerous phase) pushed the S&P 500 lower the remainder of week. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.9% to 3,097.74, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate was unchanged at 0.70% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY Index) strengthened 0.3%.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jun 19
22 June, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Garnering support from the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank’s widening of its corporate buyback program to include individual bonds and much-stronger-than-expected retail sales and and industrial production reports, the S&P 500 increased almost 3% through Tuesday. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony in front of the Senate and House on Tuesday and Wednesday imploring congress to continue its fiscal stimulus efforts as well as increased fears of a coronavirus second wave (exacerbated by the W.H.O’s proclamation that the coronavirus has entered a new and dangerous phase) pushed the S&P 500 lower the remainder of week. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.9% to 3,097.74, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate was unchanged at 0.70% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY Index) strengthened 0.3%.
Momentum from the previous Friday’s much-stronger-than-expected employment report pushed the S&P 500 Index 1.2% higher on Monday and into the black for the year and moved the Nasdaq Composite Index to a record high. Anxiety surrounding the 2-Day FOMC meeting moved U.S. stock markets lower on Tuesday and Fed Chairman Powell’s comments on Wednesday – voicing deep uncertainty about the strength and timing of the recovery of the U.S. economy – pushed the S&P 500 Index off its Monday’s highs to unchanged for the week. U.S. stock markets plummeted Thursday on continued follow through from Powell’s comments as well as increased concerns of a coronavirus second wave only to see some of those losses recouped on Friday on no real news. 10-year Treasury rates steadily moved lower last week, fading with increased concerns of the timing and strength of economic recovery in the U.S. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index fell 4.8% to 3,041.31, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate decreased 20bps to 0.70% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY Index) strengthened 0.2%
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jun 12
15 June, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Momentum from the previous Friday’s much-stronger-than-expected employment report pushed the S&P 500 Index 1.2% higher on Monday and into the black for the year and moved the Nasdaq Composite Index to a record high. Anxiety surrounding the 2-Day FOMC meeting moved U.S. stock markets lower on Tuesday and Fed Chairman Powell’s comments on Wednesday – voicing deep uncertainty about the strength and timing of the recovery of the U.S. economy – pushed the S&P 500 Index off its Monday’s highs to unchanged for the week. U.S. stock markets plummeted Thursday on continued follow through from Powell’s comments as well as increased concerns of a coronavirus second wave only to see some of those losses recouped on Friday on no real news. 10-year Treasury rates steadily moved lower last week, fading with increased concerns of the timing and strength of economic recovery in the U.S. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index fell 4.8% to 3,041.31, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate decreased 20bps to 0.70% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY Index) strengthened 0.2%
Overcoming concerns brought about by violent protests, fears of a second coronovirus wave and increasing U.S.-China tensions, U.S. stock markets marched higher last week, only pausing momentarily on Thursday, supported by growing optimism of a faster-than-expected economic recovery due to easing lockdown restrictions at home and abroad. An unexpected 2.5 million increase in non-farm payrolls (expectations were for a loss of about 8 million jobs) was the proverbial icing on the cake, pushing U.S. stock markets 2%-3% higher on Friday. Throughout the week the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate climbed higher as well, moving with increasing expectations of stronger, faster U.S. economic growth while the U.S. dollar weakened significantly mainly as result of lessening coronavirus concerns decreasing demand for U.S. dollars. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 4.9% to 3,193.93, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 24bps to 0.90% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY Index) weakened 1.4%.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jun 5
08 June, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Overcoming concerns brought about by violent protests, fears of a second coronovirus wave and increasing U.S.-China tensions, U.S. stock markets marched higher last week, only pausing momentarily on Thursday, supported by growing optimism of a faster-than-expected economic recovery due to easing lockdown restrictions at home and abroad. An unexpected 2.5 million increase in non-farm payrolls (expectations were for a loss of about 8 million jobs) was the proverbial icing on the cake, pushing U.S. stock markets 2%-3% higher on Friday. Throughout the week the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate climbed higher as well, moving with increasing expectations of stronger, faster U.S. economic growth while the U.S. dollar weakened significantly mainly as result of lessening coronavirus concerns decreasing demand for U.S. dollars. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 4.9% to 3,193.93, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 24bps to 0.90% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY Index) weakened 1.4%.
Buoyed by increasing hopes regarding a coronavirus vaccine and increasing expectations of economic recovery spurred by easing lockdown restrictions, the S&P 500 Index increased 2.7% through Wednesday. Concerns surrounding U.S.-China tensions, inflamed by China’s Hong Kong security restrictions, pushed the S&P 500 Index off Wednesday’s high on Thursday only to see those losses recouped on Friday after President Trump’s announcement of measures against China were less harsh and encompassing than originally feared. Markets all but ignored weak economic reports last week, including an almost 14% decline in consumer spending reported Friday, with investors focusing instead on increased hopes and expectations of economic recovery. Jerome Powell, speaking Friday, said the fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong but with the coronavirus posing risks to growth and said the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank continues to use its tools to support the economy. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 3.0% to 3,044.31, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate was unchanged at 0.66% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY Index) weakened 1.6%.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: May 29
01 June, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Buoyed by increasing hopes regarding a coronavirus vaccine and increasing expectations of economic recovery spurred by easing lockdown restrictions, the S&P 500 Index increased 2.7% through Wednesday. Concerns surrounding U.S.-China tensions, inflamed by China’s Hong Kong security restrictions, pushed the S&P 500 Index off Wednesday’s high on Thursday only to see those losses recouped on Friday after President Trump’s announcement of measures against China were less harsh and encompassing than originally feared. Markets all but ignored weak economic reports last week, including an almost 14% decline in consumer spending reported Friday, with investors focusing instead on increased hopes and expectations of economic recovery. Jerome Powell, speaking Friday, said the fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong but with the coronavirus posing risks to growth and said the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank continues to use its tools to support the economy. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 3.0% to 3,044.31, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate was unchanged at 0.66% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY Index) weakened 1.6%.
Up over 3% Monday on positive news regarding Moderna’s development of a coronavirus vaccine, the S&P 500 Index zigzagged the rest of the week finishing very close to Monday’s level. Initial optimism over Moderna’s progress was partially offset by doubts and questions over the value of the initial results on Tuesday, pushing the S&P 500 Index about 1% lower on the day. Continued easing of restrictions throughout the U.S. with increasing expectations of stronger economic growth moved the S&P 500 Index higher by almost 2% on Wednesday only to see some of those gains reversed on Thursday with the weekly jobless claims report showing initial claims of 2.4 million. The S&P 500 Index closed the week up 3.2% at 2,955.46, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 1bp to 0.66% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY Index) gave up last weeks gains, weakening 0.6%.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: May 22
26 May, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Up over 3% Monday on positive news regarding Moderna’s development of a coronavirus vaccine, the S&P 500 Index zigzagged the rest of the week finishing very close to Monday’s level. Initial optimism over Moderna’s progress was partially offset by doubts and questions over the value of the initial results on Tuesday, pushing the S&P 500 Index about 1% lower on the day. Continued easing of restrictions throughout the U.S. with increasing expectations of stronger economic growth moved the S&P 500 Index higher by almost 2% on Wednesday only to see some of those gains reversed on Thursday with the weekly jobless claims report showing initial claims of 2.4 million. The S&P 500 Index closed the week up 3.2% at 2,955.46, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose 1bp to 0.66% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY Index) gave up last weeks gains, weakening 0.6%.
Continued concerns of U.S. economic growth negatively affected by lower global growth and statements of some Federal Reserve Bank officials indicating it’s too soon to consider lowering rates, limited U.S. stock market gains and helped push commodity markets lower through Wednesday last week
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Mar 29
28 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Continued concerns of U.S. economic growth negatively affected by lower global growth and statements of some Federal Reserve Bank officials indicating it’s too soon to consider lowering rates, limited U.S. stock market gains and helped push commodity markets lower through Wednesday last week
Positive economic reports from both the U.S. and China combined with increased optimism over a U.S.-China trade agreement pushed U.S stock and commodity markets higher last week.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities and Precious Metals Update (Week Ending Apr. 5)
28 March, 2020 | GraniteShares
Positive economic reports from both the U.S. and China combined with increased optimism over a U.S.-China trade agreement pushed U.S stock and commodity markets higher last week.
Initially falling early in the week on the IMF’s reduced global and U.S. economic growth forecast for 2019, commodity and U.S. stocks markets finished the week higher after strong U.S. bank earnings and Chinese trade and lending reports on Friday.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Apr 12
28 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Initially falling early in the week on the IMF’s reduced global and U.S. economic growth forecast for 2019, commodity and U.S. stocks markets finished the week higher after strong U.S. bank earnings and Chinese trade and lending reports on Friday.
Stocks, bonds and hedge funds: Can you guess which is which? Hint: hedge funds underperform.. #2and20problems
Topic: Commodities , Alternative Income
Publication Type: Viewpoints
Guess The Index – Chart of The Week
28 March, 2020 | GraniteShares
Stocks, bonds and hedge funds: Can you guess which is which? Hint: hedge funds underperform.. #2and20problems
A holiday-shortened trading week and mixed U.S. and weak German economic reports left U.S. stock markets unchanged and commodity markets lower despite continued U.S-China trade agreement optimism and stronger-than-expected Chinese GDP growth and industrial production numbers released on Tuesday.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Apr 19
28 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
A holiday-shortened trading week and mixed U.S. and weak German economic reports left U.S. stock markets unchanged and commodity markets lower despite continued U.S-China trade agreement optimism and stronger-than-expected Chinese GDP growth and industrial production numbers released on Tuesday.
Just when you thought it was safe to buy guacamole again, Avocado prices surge 45%! Millennial purchasing power may never recover…
Topic: Commodities , Alternative Income
Publication Type: Investment Cases
Millennial Avocados- Chart of the Week
28 March, 2020 | GraniteShares
Just when you thought it was safe to buy guacamole again, Avocado prices surge 45%! Millennial purchasing power may never recover…
espite the previous week’s strong GDP report and Friday’s strong payroll report, concerns of stubbornly low price and wage inflation combined with concerns of sluggish consumer spending and business investment led the FOMC to keep the Fed Funds target rate unchanged while indicating there is no strong reason to adjust rates either way.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities and Precious Metals Update (Week Ending May 3)
27 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
espite the previous week’s strong GDP report and Friday’s strong payroll report, concerns of stubbornly low price and wage inflation combined with concerns of sluggish consumer spending and business investment led the FOMC to keep the Fed Funds target rate unchanged while indicating there is no strong reason to adjust rates either way.
Volatile week spurred by renewed U.S.-China trade tensions and escalating U.S. – Iran frictions. President Trump’s start-of-the-week tweet threatening more and increased tariffs on Chinese goods increased global growth concerns pushing U.S. stock markets and U.S. Treasury yields lower and the U.S. dollar higher.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities and Precious Metals Update (Week Ending May 10)
27 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Volatile week spurred by renewed U.S.-China trade tensions and escalating U.S. – Iran frictions. President Trump’s start-of-the-week tweet threatening more and increased tariffs on Chinese goods increased global growth concerns pushing U.S. stock markets and U.S. Treasury yields lower and the U.S. dollar higher.
The S&P 500 index, down 2.4% on Monday on renewed U.S-China trade tensions, regained most of its losses through Friday as off-again-on-again optimism of U.S.-China trade progress along with President Trump’s delay of EU and Japan auto tariffs moved the S&P 500 of its lows.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities and Precious Metals Update (Week Ending May 17)
27 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
The S&P 500 index, down 2.4% on Monday on renewed U.S-China trade tensions, regained most of its losses through Friday as off-again-on-again optimism of U.S.-China trade progress along with President Trump’s delay of EU and Japan auto tariffs moved the S&P 500 of its lows.
Increased concerns over U.S.-China trade frictions and weaker-than-expected EU, U.S. and Chinese economic reports pushed commodity and U.S. stock markets lower last week.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities and Precious Metals Update (Week ending May 24)
27 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Increased concerns over U.S.-China trade frictions and weaker-than-expected EU, U.S. and Chinese economic reports pushed commodity and U.S. stock markets lower last week.
Continued concerns of weaker global and U.S. growth, driven by U.S-China trade frictions and economic reports pointing to slowdowns in the EU, China and the U.S, helped push commodity and stock markets lower last week.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities and Precious Metals Update (Week ending May 31)
27 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Continued concerns of weaker global and U.S. growth, driven by U.S-China trade frictions and economic reports pointing to slowdowns in the EU, China and the U.S, helped push commodity and stock markets lower last week.
Continued concerns of weaker global and U.S. growth, driven by U.S-China trade frictions and economic reports pointing to slowdowns in the EU, China and the U.S, helped push commodity and stock markets lower last week.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jun 7
27 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Continued concerns of weaker global and U.S. growth, driven by U.S-China trade frictions and economic reports pointing to slowdowns in the EU, China and the U.S, helped push commodity and stock markets lower last week.
il tanker attacks attributed to Iran by both the U.S. and Britain, better-than-expected U.S and weaker than expected China economic rerpots combined to push the U.S. dollar higher and leave both 10-year U.S. Treasury rates and the S&P 500 index practically unchanged from the previous week.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jun 14
27 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
il tanker attacks attributed to Iran by both the U.S. and Britain, better-than-expected U.S and weaker than expected China economic rerpots combined to push the U.S. dollar higher and leave both 10-year U.S. Treasury rates and the S&P 500 index practically unchanged from the previous week.
Despite ECB statements indicating more stimulus would be needed and greatly increased tensions between the U.S. and Iran precipitated by Iran’s shooting down of a U.S. drone on Thursday, the U.S. dollar sharply weakened following U.S. Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments – at the end of the 2-day FOMC meeting – that the Fed would act as needed to sustain economic growth.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jun 21
27 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Despite ECB statements indicating more stimulus would be needed and greatly increased tensions between the U.S. and Iran precipitated by Iran’s shooting down of a U.S. drone on Thursday, the U.S. dollar sharply weakened following U.S. Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments – at the end of the 2-day FOMC meeting – that the Fed would act as needed to sustain economic growth.
Comments from U.S Federal Reserve Bank officials, including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, lowered expectations of of two rate cuts this year, pushing U.S stock markets slightly lower while leaving the U.S. dollar practically unchanged.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jun 28
27 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Comments from U.S Federal Reserve Bank officials, including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, lowered expectations of of two rate cuts this year, pushing U.S stock markets slightly lower while leaving the U.S. dollar practically unchanged.
Increased optimism on Monday resulting from a reported U.S.-China trade truce following the G-20 conference followed by a stronger-than-expected employment report on Friday moved U.S. stock markets higher, strengthened the U.S. dollar and increased the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jul 5
27 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Increased optimism on Monday resulting from a reported U.S.-China trade truce following the G-20 conference followed by a stronger-than-expected employment report on Friday moved U.S. stock markets higher, strengthened the U.S. dollar and increased the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate.
Chart of the week from Ryan Giannotto…. A classic case for diversification? Investors had 5 times the chance of picking a stock in the S&P 500 with a 30% or greater loss in 2018 vs. 2017.
Topic: Commodities , Alternative Income
Publication Type: Investment Cases
Diversify, Diversify, Diversify – Chart of the Week
27 March, 2020 | GraniteShares
Chart of the week from Ryan Giannotto…. A classic case for diversification? Investors had 5 times the chance of picking a stock in the S&P 500 with a 30% or greater loss in 2018 vs. 2017.
Increased optimism on Monday resulting from a reported U.S.-China trade truce following the G-20 conference followed by a stronger-than-expected employment report on Friday moved U.S. stock markets higher, strengthened the U.S. dollar and increased the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jul 12
27 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Increased optimism on Monday resulting from a reported U.S.-China trade truce following the G-20 conference followed by a stronger-than-expected employment report on Friday moved U.S. stock markets higher, strengthened the U.S. dollar and increased the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate.
Despite much-better-than-expected retail sales numbers on Monday, concerns of weak growth in the EU and China helped pushed commodity and U.S. Stock markets lower last week.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jul 19
27 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Despite much-better-than-expected retail sales numbers on Monday, concerns of weak growth in the EU and China helped pushed commodity and U.S. Stock markets lower last week.
Key points
Except for natural gas, energy component futures prices were all higher last week. WTI and Brent crude oil prices increased 0.8% and 1.5% respectively. Gasoil and gasoline prices increased 1.4% and 1.5%, respectively, and heating oil prices gained 0.9%. Natural gas prices fell 3.5%
Grain prices were all lower last week. Chicago and Kansas wheat prices decreased 1.3% and 1.8%, respectively, and soybean and corn prices fell 2.0% and 3.8%, respectively.
Base metal prices, except for zinc prices, all fell last week. Nickel prices decreased 4.2%, copper prices decreased 2.5%, and aluminum prices decreased 2.6%. Zinc prices increased 0.6%.
Silver and platinum prices moved higher last week while gold prices fell. Silver and platinum prices both rose 1.3% while gold prices fell 1.3%.
The S&P GSCI outperformed the Bloomberg Commodity Index last week with the S&P GSCI increasing 0.23% versus the Bloomberg Commodity Index decreasing 0.76%. The S&P GSCI’s larger exposure to energy but smaller exposure to natural gas, grains and base metals was the primary reason for its underperformance.
Total assets in commodity ETPs decreased $157.0m last week. Broad commodity (-$397.8m), crude oil (-$38.3m) and agriculture (-$15.7m) ETP outflows were offset partially by gold ($128.0m) and silver ($174.4m) ETP inflows.
Commentary
Friday’s stronger-than-expected first estimate of Q2 GDP helped reduce concerns of a weaker U.S. economy brought about by a much-weaker-than-expected existing home sales number and a slew of other slightly-less-than-expected economic numbers released earlier in the week. Strong Indications the ECB is ready and willing to reduce rates and restart its bond buying program helped increased expectations of stronger EU and global economic growth as did reports U.S. and China trade talks would resume this coming week. At week’s end the U.S. dollar strengthened 0.9%, 10-year U.S. Treasury rates increased 2bp to 2.07% and the S&P 500 index increased 1.7%.
Up 1.8% through Tuesday, oil prices moved higher spurred by concerns over Iran’s seizure of a British oil tanker the previous week and expectations of a large drawdown in U.S. oil inventories. Wednesday’s EIA inventory report showing a large drawdown (as expected) was dismissed as a one-time “Hurricane Barry” effect with concerns of reduced oil demand due to weaker global growth prevailing and pushing oil prices off their highs of the week.
Base metal prices moved lower last week as a result of a stronger U.S. dollar and continued concerns of weaker Chinese and global growth. Aluminum prices down 1.4% through Thursday fell another 1.2% on Friday after the world’s largest alumina refinery, Norsk Hydro, lowered its demand growth forecasts for aluminum for a second time this year citing weaker global growth and U.S. – China trade frictions. Nickel prices gave up some of their recent large gains after analysts warned prices had moved too high.
Gold prices moved lower as expectations of the number and size of U.S. rate decreases were slightly lowered on the back of a stronger-than-expected U.S. GDP report on Friday. Silver and platinum prices increased supported by inflows into ETPs.
Grain prices moved lower last week mainly as a result of improved weather conditions and increased expectations of improved harvest yields. Corn prices also suffered from lower-than-expected export numbers and reduced demand for ethanol. Soybean prices increased slightly on Friday after reports U.S.- China trade talks would resume this coming week.
Coming up this week
Busy data week highlighted by the 2-day FOMC meeting beginning Tuesday and the employment situation report on Friday.
Personal income and outlays and consumer confidence on Tuesday.
Employment cost index and FOMC meeting announcement followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell press conference on Wednesday.
Jobless claims, ISM and PMI manufacturing indexes on Thursday.
Employment situation report and international trade on Friday.
EIA petroleum report on Wednesday and Baker-Hughes rig count on Friday.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: July 26
27 March, 2020 | GraniteShares
Key points
Except for natural gas, energy component futures prices were all higher last week. WTI and Brent crude oil prices increased 0.8% and 1.5% respectively. Gasoil and gasoline prices increased 1.4% and 1.5%, respectively, and heating oil prices gained 0.9%. Natural gas prices fell 3.5%
Grain prices were all lower last week. Chicago and Kansas wheat prices decreased 1.3% and 1.8%, respectively, and soybean and corn prices fell 2.0% and 3.8%, respectively.
Base metal prices, except for zinc prices, all fell last week. Nickel prices decreased 4.2%, copper prices decreased 2.5%, and aluminum prices decreased 2.6%. Zinc prices increased 0.6%.
Silver and platinum prices moved higher last week while gold prices fell. Silver and platinum prices both rose 1.3% while gold prices fell 1.3%.
The S&P GSCI outperformed the Bloomberg Commodity Index last week with the S&P GSCI increasing 0.23% versus the Bloomberg Commodity Index decreasing 0.76%. The S&P GSCI’s larger exposure to energy but smaller exposure to natural gas, grains and base metals was the primary reason for its underperformance.
Total assets in commodity ETPs decreased $157.0m last week. Broad commodity (-$397.8m), crude oil (-$38.3m) and agriculture (-$15.7m) ETP outflows were offset partially by gold ($128.0m) and silver ($174.4m) ETP inflows.
Commentary
Friday’s stronger-than-expected first estimate of Q2 GDP helped reduce concerns of a weaker U.S. economy brought about by a much-weaker-than-expected existing home sales number and a slew of other slightly-less-than-expected economic numbers released earlier in the week. Strong Indications the ECB is ready and willing to reduce rates and restart its bond buying program helped increased expectations of stronger EU and global economic growth as did reports U.S. and China trade talks would resume this coming week. At week’s end the U.S. dollar strengthened 0.9%, 10-year U.S. Treasury rates increased 2bp to 2.07% and the S&P 500 index increased 1.7%.
Up 1.8% through Tuesday, oil prices moved higher spurred by concerns over Iran’s seizure of a British oil tanker the previous week and expectations of a large drawdown in U.S. oil inventories. Wednesday’s EIA inventory report showing a large drawdown (as expected) was dismissed as a one-time “Hurricane Barry” effect with concerns of reduced oil demand due to weaker global growth prevailing and pushing oil prices off their highs of the week.
Base metal prices moved lower last week as a result of a stronger U.S. dollar and continued concerns of weaker Chinese and global growth. Aluminum prices down 1.4% through Thursday fell another 1.2% on Friday after the world’s largest alumina refinery, Norsk Hydro, lowered its demand growth forecasts for aluminum for a second time this year citing weaker global growth and U.S. – China trade frictions. Nickel prices gave up some of their recent large gains after analysts warned prices had moved too high.
Gold prices moved lower as expectations of the number and size of U.S. rate decreases were slightly lowered on the back of a stronger-than-expected U.S. GDP report on Friday. Silver and platinum prices increased supported by inflows into ETPs.
Grain prices moved lower last week mainly as a result of improved weather conditions and increased expectations of improved harvest yields. Corn prices also suffered from lower-than-expected export numbers and reduced demand for ethanol. Soybean prices increased slightly on Friday after reports U.S.- China trade talks would resume this coming week.
Coming up this week
Busy data week highlighted by the 2-day FOMC meeting beginning Tuesday and the employment situation report on Friday.
Personal income and outlays and consumer confidence on Tuesday.
Employment cost index and FOMC meeting announcement followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell press conference on Wednesday.
Jobless claims, ISM and PMI manufacturing indexes on Thursday.
Employment situation report and international trade on Friday.
EIA petroleum report on Wednesday and Baker-Hughes rig count on Friday.
U.S. stock markets and the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell sharply on Monday (S&P 500 Index down 3%, 10-year U.S. Treasury rate 14bps lower) after the Chinese yuan weakened to above 7 yuan/dollar, greatly increasing fears of an all-out trade and, perhaps, currency war between the U.S. and China.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Aug 09
27 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
U.S. stock markets and the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell sharply on Monday (S&P 500 Index down 3%, 10-year U.S. Treasury rate 14bps lower) after the Chinese yuan weakened to above 7 yuan/dollar, greatly increasing fears of an all-out trade and, perhaps, currency war between the U.S. and China.
A volatile week for U.S. stock markets and U.S. interest rates resulting from quickly changing expectations of global growth and U.S-China trade relations.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Aug 16
27 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
A volatile week for U.S. stock markets and U.S. interest rates resulting from quickly changing expectations of global growth and U.S-China trade relations.
U.S. stock markets and the U.S. dollar were higher through Thursday last week following the Trump administration’s positive statements and actions regarding U.S-China trade frictions and following the release of FOMC minutes and Jerome Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole confirming the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank will act to maintain economic expansion.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Aug 23
27 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
U.S. stock markets and the U.S. dollar were higher through Thursday last week following the Trump administration’s positive statements and actions regarding U.S-China trade frictions and following the release of FOMC minutes and Jerome Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole confirming the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank will act to maintain economic expansion.
A mix of stronger-than-expected U.S. economic reports and statements from China seemingly de-escalating trade frictions moved U.S. stock markets higher while also strengthening the U.S. dollar.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Aug 30
27 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
A mix of stronger-than-expected U.S. economic reports and statements from China seemingly de-escalating trade frictions moved U.S. stock markets higher while also strengthening the U.S. dollar.
Returning Tuesday from a long holiday weekend, U.S. stock and commodity markets moved lower as global and U.S. growth concerns, prompted by tweets from President Trump, increased.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Sep 06
27 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Returning Tuesday from a long holiday weekend, U.S. stock and commodity markets moved lower as global and U.S. growth concerns, prompted by tweets from President Trump, increased.
Despite President Trump’s tweets requesting the U.S Federal Reserve Bank dramatically lower rates, higher-than-expected CPI and PPI numbers and better-than-expected retail sales, chain-store sales, consumer sentiment and business inventories reports pushed 10-year interest rates higher by over 30bps and reduced the probability of a rate increase at this week’s FOMC meeting.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Sep 13
27 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Despite President Trump’s tweets requesting the U.S Federal Reserve Bank dramatically lower rates, higher-than-expected CPI and PPI numbers and better-than-expected retail sales, chain-store sales, consumer sentiment and business inventories reports pushed 10-year interest rates higher by over 30bps and reduced the probability of a rate increase at this week’s FOMC meeting.
Dominated by news of attacks on Saudi oil processing facilities, U.S. Federal Reserve Bank repo operations and the FOMC meeting, U.S. stock markets and the U.S. dollar remained relatively calm while 10-year U.S. interest rates moved lower off their recent highs.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Sep 20
27 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Dominated by news of attacks on Saudi oil processing facilities, U.S. Federal Reserve Bank repo operations and the FOMC meeting, U.S. stock markets and the U.S. dollar remained relatively calm while 10-year U.S. interest rates moved lower off their recent highs.
Weak economic reports in Europe and Asia along with the what may be the beginning of impeachment proceedings against President Trump pushed U.S. and global stock markets lower, strengthened the U.S. dollar and moved U.S. Treasury rates lower.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Sep 27
27 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Weak economic reports in Europe and Asia along with the what may be the beginning of impeachment proceedings against President Trump pushed U.S. and global stock markets lower, strengthened the U.S. dollar and moved U.S. Treasury rates lower.
A bevy of weak U.S. economic reports on Tuesday and Wednesday, including a very weak ISM manufacturing index release on Tuesday and extremely disappointing auto sales numbers on Wednesday, drove U.S. stock markets, U.S. Treasury rates and the U.S. dollar lower last week. Concerns of a slowing U.S. economy increased Thursday after the release of a weaker-than-expected ISM non-manufacturing index number, a weaker-than-expected ADP private payroll report as well as by a mediocre employment report on Friday. Despite Thursday’s and Friday’s reports, U.S. stock markets rebounded off their lows with increasing market expectations of more U.S. Federal Reserve Bank rate reductions . The S&P 500 Index, down more 2.5% through Wednesday, finished the week only 0.3% lower at 2,952.01. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates fell 15bps over the week to 1.53% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY index) weakened 0.3% over the week.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Oct 4
27 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
A bevy of weak U.S. economic reports on Tuesday and Wednesday, including a very weak ISM manufacturing index release on Tuesday and extremely disappointing auto sales numbers on Wednesday, drove U.S. stock markets, U.S. Treasury rates and the U.S. dollar lower last week. Concerns of a slowing U.S. economy increased Thursday after the release of a weaker-than-expected ISM non-manufacturing index number, a weaker-than-expected ADP private payroll report as well as by a mediocre employment report on Friday. Despite Thursday’s and Friday’s reports, U.S. stock markets rebounded off their lows with increasing market expectations of more U.S. Federal Reserve Bank rate reductions . The S&P 500 Index, down more 2.5% through Wednesday, finished the week only 0.3% lower at 2,952.01. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates fell 15bps over the week to 1.53% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY index) weakened 0.3% over the week.
Concerns of weak U.S. economic growth spurred by the previous week’s weaker-than-expected ISM manufacturing report and exacerbated by growing concerns of increased trade frictions between the U.S. and China pushed U.S. stock markets lower and strengthened the U.S. dollar early last week. The release of FOMC minutes on Wednesday, comments from various Fed officials reaffirming the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank would continue to act to maintain the expansion and the Fed’s announcement it would increase its balance sheet by buying short-term Treasuries helped move U.S. stock markets off their intra-week lows through the remainder of the week. Reports on Thursday that President Trump would meet with Vice Premier Liu on Friday and the announcement that a partial trade agreement had been reached with China on Friday, pushed U.S. stock markets and U.S. Treasury rates higher and weakened the U.S. dollar.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Oct 11
27 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Concerns of weak U.S. economic growth spurred by the previous week’s weaker-than-expected ISM manufacturing report and exacerbated by growing concerns of increased trade frictions between the U.S. and China pushed U.S. stock markets lower and strengthened the U.S. dollar early last week. The release of FOMC minutes on Wednesday, comments from various Fed officials reaffirming the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank would continue to act to maintain the expansion and the Fed’s announcement it would increase its balance sheet by buying short-term Treasuries helped move U.S. stock markets off their intra-week lows through the remainder of the week. Reports on Thursday that President Trump would meet with Vice Premier Liu on Friday and the announcement that a partial trade agreement had been reached with China on Friday, pushed U.S. stock markets and U.S. Treasury rates higher and weakened the U.S. dollar.
Stronger-than-expected U.S. earnings reports overcame a weaker-than-expected retail sales report and reduced expectations of a U.S-China “partial” trade agreement last week. The S&P 500 Index, lower on Monday after China announced it wanted more talks before signing any trade agreement, rallied through Thursday on the back of stronger-than-expected U.S. earnings reports despite weaker-than-expected retail sales numbers released on Wednesday. U.S. stock markets lost some ground on Friday after weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data and a couple of “missed” U.S. earnings reports. At week’s end the S&P 500 index was up 0.5% at 2986.20, 10-year U.S. Treasury rates were up 2.5bps at 1.75% and the dollar weakened 1.0 % as measured by the DXY index.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Oct 18
27 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Stronger-than-expected U.S. earnings reports overcame a weaker-than-expected retail sales report and reduced expectations of a U.S-China “partial” trade agreement last week. The S&P 500 Index, lower on Monday after China announced it wanted more talks before signing any trade agreement, rallied through Thursday on the back of stronger-than-expected U.S. earnings reports despite weaker-than-expected retail sales numbers released on Wednesday. U.S. stock markets lost some ground on Friday after weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data and a couple of “missed” U.S. earnings reports. At week’s end the S&P 500 index was up 0.5% at 2986.20, 10-year U.S. Treasury rates were up 2.5bps at 1.75% and the dollar weakened 1.0 % as measured by the DXY index.
GraniteShares is an independent, fully funded ETF company headquartered in New York City. GraniteShares’ ETF suite includes one of the lowest-cost physical gold ETFs (BAR), a broad-based commodity ETF (COMB), an ETF that seeks to exclude U.S. large cap companies most likely to suffer from technological disruption over the long term (XOUT), a high alternative income-focused fund that invests in pass-through securities (HIPS) and the lowest-cost* physical platinum ETF (PLTM). GraniteShares has experienced robust growth in 2019, recently surpassing $700 million in total assets under management.
Topic: Income
Publication Type: Investment Cases
GraniteShares Announces Change in ETF Lineup
27 March, 2020 | GraniteShares
GraniteShares is an independent, fully funded ETF company headquartered in New York City. GraniteShares’ ETF suite includes one of the lowest-cost physical gold ETFs (BAR), a broad-based commodity ETF (COMB), an ETF that seeks to exclude U.S. large cap companies most likely to suffer from technological disruption over the long term (XOUT), a high alternative income-focused fund that invests in pass-through securities (HIPS) and the lowest-cost* physical platinum ETF (PLTM). GraniteShares has experienced robust growth in 2019, recently surpassing $700 million in total assets under management.
Buoyed by increased optimism of a U.S.-China trade agreement, overall better-than-expected U.S. earnings reports and continued expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve Bank easing, the S&P 500 Index, increased 1.2% to 3022.55, just shy of its record in late July of 3025.86. The U.S. dollar strengthened over the week, despite U.S. Federal Reserve Bank easing expectations, on the back of weak economic reports from the EU and China. At week’s end the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY index) strengthened 0.6% and 10-year U.S Treasury rates increased 4.5bps to 1.0%
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Oct 25
27 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Buoyed by increased optimism of a U.S.-China trade agreement, overall better-than-expected U.S. earnings reports and continued expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve Bank easing, the S&P 500 Index, increased 1.2% to 3022.55, just shy of its record in late July of 3025.86. The U.S. dollar strengthened over the week, despite U.S. Federal Reserve Bank easing expectations, on the back of weak economic reports from the EU and China. At week’s end the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY index) strengthened 0.6% and 10-year U.S Treasury rates increased 4.5bps to 1.0%
Starting the week with strong expectations of a partial trade agreement between the U.S.- and China, U.S. stock markets and the 10-year Treasury rate both moved higher early in the week. With Wednesday’s FOMC decision to once again lower the Fed Fund’s target rate 25bps while at the same time hinting the Federal Reserve Bank would pause further rate reductions combined with a lackluster 3rd quarter GDP report, 10-year U.S Treasury rates moved off their intraweek highs while the U.S. stock markets seemed unphased. Weaker-than-expected consumer spending number and reduced expectations of a U.S.-China trade agreement partially reversed gains in U.S. stock markets and pushed the 10-year Treasury even rate lower on Thursday. Friday’s much-stronger-than-expected employment situation report -despite weaker-than-expected manufacturing data -pushed U.S. stock markets even higher and slightly increased the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate. At week’s end the S&P 500 was up almost 1.5% to 3066.91, the 10-year U.S. Treasury was lower 8bps at 1.71% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY index) was weaker 0.6%.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Nov 1
27 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Starting the week with strong expectations of a partial trade agreement between the U.S.- and China, U.S. stock markets and the 10-year Treasury rate both moved higher early in the week. With Wednesday’s FOMC decision to once again lower the Fed Fund’s target rate 25bps while at the same time hinting the Federal Reserve Bank would pause further rate reductions combined with a lackluster 3rd quarter GDP report, 10-year U.S Treasury rates moved off their intraweek highs while the U.S. stock markets seemed unphased. Weaker-than-expected consumer spending number and reduced expectations of a U.S.-China trade agreement partially reversed gains in U.S. stock markets and pushed the 10-year Treasury even rate lower on Thursday. Friday’s much-stronger-than-expected employment situation report -despite weaker-than-expected manufacturing data -pushed U.S. stock markets even higher and slightly increased the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate. At week’s end the S&P 500 was up almost 1.5% to 3066.91, the 10-year U.S. Treasury was lower 8bps at 1.71% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY index) was weaker 0.6%.
Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic and earnings reports – and despite increased expectations that the next rate move by the U.S. Federal Reserve bank will be a move higher – pushed the S&P 500 Index up 0.85% to an all-time high of 3093.08 while moving the 10-year U.S Treasury rate higher by 23 bps to 1.94% and strengthened the U.S. dollar by 1.2% (as measured by the DXY index).
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Nov 8
27 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic and earnings reports – and despite increased expectations that the next rate move by the U.S. Federal Reserve bank will be a move higher – pushed the S&P 500 Index up 0.85% to an all-time high of 3093.08 while moving the 10-year U.S Treasury rate higher by 23 bps to 1.94% and strengthened the U.S. dollar by 1.2% (as measured by the DXY index).
Renewed optimism over a U.S.-China trade agreement spurred by Trump administration comments and stronger-expected retail sales on Friday, pushed the S&P 500 Index almost a percent higher and moved 10-year U.S. Treasury rates a couple of basis points off their lows of the week. At week’s end the S&P 500 increased 0.9% to 3120.46, 10-year U.S. Treasury rates fell 11bps to 1.83% and the U.S. dollar weakened 0.4% (as measured by the DXY index).
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Nov 15
27 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Renewed optimism over a U.S.-China trade agreement spurred by Trump administration comments and stronger-expected retail sales on Friday, pushed the S&P 500 Index almost a percent higher and moved 10-year U.S. Treasury rates a couple of basis points off their lows of the week. At week’s end the S&P 500 increased 0.9% to 3120.46, 10-year U.S. Treasury rates fell 11bps to 1.83% and the U.S. dollar weakened 0.4% (as measured by the DXY index).
Comments by Chinese President Xi Jinping calling for increased communications between the U.S. and China, positive comments from President Trump regarding U.S.-China trade frictions and stronger-than-expected economic reports on Friday moved U.S. stock markets, 10-year U.S. Treasury rates and the U.S. dollar off their lows of the week. At week’s end the S&P 500 was down 0.3% to 3110.29, 10-year U.S. Treasury rates fell 6bps to 1.77% and the U.S. dollar strengthened (all on Friday) 0.3% (as measured by the DXY index). ).
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Nov 22
27 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Comments by Chinese President Xi Jinping calling for increased communications between the U.S. and China, positive comments from President Trump regarding U.S.-China trade frictions and stronger-than-expected economic reports on Friday moved U.S. stock markets, 10-year U.S. Treasury rates and the U.S. dollar off their lows of the week. At week’s end the S&P 500 was down 0.3% to 3110.29, 10-year U.S. Treasury rates fell 6bps to 1.77% and the U.S. dollar strengthened (all on Friday) 0.3% (as measured by the DXY index). ).
Supported by indications of progress on a U.S.-China trade agreement and strong U.S. economic reports (including new home sales and 2nd estimate Q3 GDP), the S&P 500 Index moved 1.4% higher through Wednesday to close at 3153.63, another all-time high. President Trump’s signing of legislation supporting Hong Kong protesters along with falling energy prices pushed U.S. stock markets slightly lower with the S&P 500 Index slipping 0.4%. At week’s end the S&P 500 was up 1% to 3140.98, 10-year U.S. Treasury rates gained 1bp to 1.78% and the U.S. dollar was unchanged (as measured by the DXY index).
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Nov 29
27 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Supported by indications of progress on a U.S.-China trade agreement and strong U.S. economic reports (including new home sales and 2nd estimate Q3 GDP), the S&P 500 Index moved 1.4% higher through Wednesday to close at 3153.63, another all-time high. President Trump’s signing of legislation supporting Hong Kong protesters along with falling energy prices pushed U.S. stock markets slightly lower with the S&P 500 Index slipping 0.4%. At week’s end the S&P 500 was up 1% to 3140.98, 10-year U.S. Treasury rates gained 1bp to 1.78% and the U.S. dollar was unchanged (as measured by the DXY index).
U.S. stock markets moved lower Monday and Tuesday last week following statements from President Trump threatening steel tariffs on Brazil and Argentinia, promising repercussions to France’s digital tax and allowing for the possibility of U.S-China trade negotiations dragging on through 2020. Conversely, 10-year U.S. Treasury rates moved higher on Monday after better-than-expected manufacturing data from China, then moved sharply lower on Tuesday following President Trump’s comments regarding U.S.-China trade negotiations and weaker-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data. Reports on Wednesday that a U.S.-China trade agreement was very close, all but erasing concerns raised Tuesday, and stronger-than-expected non-manufacturing data moved 10-year U.S. Treasury rates and U.S. stock markets higher. Lower-than-expected initial jobless claims on Thursday and a much-stronger-than expected employment situation report on Friday pushed U.S. stock markets and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields higher through the remainder of the week. At week’s end the S&P 500 was up 0.2% to 3145.91, 10-year U.S. Treasury rates increased 6bp to close at 1.84% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY index) weakened 0.6%.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Dec 6
27 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
U.S. stock markets moved lower Monday and Tuesday last week following statements from President Trump threatening steel tariffs on Brazil and Argentinia, promising repercussions to France’s digital tax and allowing for the possibility of U.S-China trade negotiations dragging on through 2020. Conversely, 10-year U.S. Treasury rates moved higher on Monday after better-than-expected manufacturing data from China, then moved sharply lower on Tuesday following President Trump’s comments regarding U.S.-China trade negotiations and weaker-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data. Reports on Wednesday that a U.S.-China trade agreement was very close, all but erasing concerns raised Tuesday, and stronger-than-expected non-manufacturing data moved 10-year U.S. Treasury rates and U.S. stock markets higher. Lower-than-expected initial jobless claims on Thursday and a much-stronger-than expected employment situation report on Friday pushed U.S. stock markets and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields higher through the remainder of the week. At week’s end the S&P 500 was up 0.2% to 3145.91, 10-year U.S. Treasury rates increased 6bp to close at 1.84% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY index) weakened 0.6%.
Approaching U.S trade tariff deadlines, continued uncertainty of a phase one U.S.-China trade agreement, CPI and PPI reports, the FOMC meeting and UK elections all added to a jittery start of the week. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates, unchanged at 1.84% through Tuesday after an as-expected CPI report, fell 5bps on Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve bank said it would maintain the current Fed funds target rate unless there was a significant outlook change. President Trump’s announcement on Thursday that he had signed off on the trade agreement caused 10-year U.S. Treasury rates to reverse course and increase 10bps to 1.89% only to reverse course again on Friday after China confirmed there was an agreement and after a benign retail sales report pushing 10-year Treasury rates down 7bps to 1.82%. The S&P 500 index moved lower early in the week, also affected by the uncertainty surrounding the FOMC meeting and the prospects of a U.S.-China trade deal. Down 0.4% through Tuesday, the S&P 500 Index increased 1.2% the remainder of the week after the announcement of a trade agreement and a “steady-as-she-goes” policy annunciated by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 0.7% to 3168.8, 10-year U.S. interest rates fell 1bp to 1.82% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY index) weakened 0.5%.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Dec 13
27 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Approaching U.S trade tariff deadlines, continued uncertainty of a phase one U.S.-China trade agreement, CPI and PPI reports, the FOMC meeting and UK elections all added to a jittery start of the week. 10-year U.S. Treasury rates, unchanged at 1.84% through Tuesday after an as-expected CPI report, fell 5bps on Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve bank said it would maintain the current Fed funds target rate unless there was a significant outlook change. President Trump’s announcement on Thursday that he had signed off on the trade agreement caused 10-year U.S. Treasury rates to reverse course and increase 10bps to 1.89% only to reverse course again on Friday after China confirmed there was an agreement and after a benign retail sales report pushing 10-year Treasury rates down 7bps to 1.82%. The S&P 500 index moved lower early in the week, also affected by the uncertainty surrounding the FOMC meeting and the prospects of a U.S.-China trade deal. Down 0.4% through Tuesday, the S&P 500 Index increased 1.2% the remainder of the week after the announcement of a trade agreement and a “steady-as-she-goes” policy annunciated by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 0.7% to 3168.8, 10-year U.S. interest rates fell 1bp to 1.82% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY index) weakened 0.5%.
Stronger-than-expected Chinese factory production and consumer spending numbers combined with support from last week’s announcement of a U.S.-China phase one trade agreement and congress passing the USMCA pushed the S&P 500 Index to another record high and moved 10-year U.S. Treasury interest rates 5bps higher to 1.88% through Tuesday. Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic reports, including strong factory production and new housing starts, pushed 10-year U.S. interest rates 3bps higher to 1.92% and kept the S&P 500 Index at near record levels through Wednesday. Stronger-than-expected new homes sales on Thursday and consumer spending reports on Friday along with Trump administration statements the U.S.-China phase one trade agreement would be signed next month, pushed the S&P 500 index to new highs with 10-year U.S. Treasury rates remaining at 1.92%. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.7% to 3,221.22, 10-year U.S. interest rates fell 10bp to 1.92% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY index) strengthened 0.5%.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Dec 20
27 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Stronger-than-expected Chinese factory production and consumer spending numbers combined with support from last week’s announcement of a U.S.-China phase one trade agreement and congress passing the USMCA pushed the S&P 500 Index to another record high and moved 10-year U.S. Treasury interest rates 5bps higher to 1.88% through Tuesday. Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic reports, including strong factory production and new housing starts, pushed 10-year U.S. interest rates 3bps higher to 1.92% and kept the S&P 500 Index at near record levels through Wednesday. Stronger-than-expected new homes sales on Thursday and consumer spending reports on Friday along with Trump administration statements the U.S.-China phase one trade agreement would be signed next month, pushed the S&P 500 index to new highs with 10-year U.S. Treasury rates remaining at 1.92%. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.7% to 3,221.22, 10-year U.S. interest rates fell 10bp to 1.92% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY index) strengthened 0.5%.
Quiet holiday-shortened week with the S&P 500 Index struggling but eking out new highs, 10-year U.S. Treasury rates slightly declining and the U.S. dollar weakening. Weaker-than-expected durable goods orders and new home sales reported on Monday (the only significant economic data released last week) may have set the tone for the remainder of the week. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 0.6% to 3240.02, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 4 bps to 1.88% and the U.S. dollar weakened 0.8%.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Dec 27
27 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Quiet holiday-shortened week with the S&P 500 Index struggling but eking out new highs, 10-year U.S. Treasury rates slightly declining and the U.S. dollar weakening. Weaker-than-expected durable goods orders and new home sales reported on Monday (the only significant economic data released last week) may have set the tone for the remainder of the week. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 0.6% to 3240.02, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 4 bps to 1.88% and the U.S. dollar weakened 0.8%.
Though finishing slightly lower than its all time high reached on Friday the previous week, the S&P 500 Index ended the year up just shy of 29% while the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate closed at 1.92%, down approximately 80bps from its level at the end of 2018. The U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY index) finished the year almost unchanged. Last week opened with reports of U.S. attacks on pro-Iranian military bases in Syria and Iraq and closed with news of a U.S. airstrike killing IRGC general Qassam Soleimani. Stock and bond markets barely reacted to the former news with markets experiencing very light trading activity Monday and Tuesday. On Thursday, the first trading day of the new year, the S&P 500 moved higher by almost 1% and U.S. 10-year Treasury rates fell about 4bps after the PBOC said it would further loosen monetary policy to support the Chinese economy. However, overnight news leading into Friday of the killing of Soleimani and weaker-than-expected ISM manufacturing index number the S&P 500 Index reversed almost all of Thursday’s gain and pushed the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate a few basis points lower. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index was down 0.2% at 3234.85, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rates was down 9bps to 1.79% and the U.S. dollar was almost unchanged.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jan 3
27 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Though finishing slightly lower than its all time high reached on Friday the previous week, the S&P 500 Index ended the year up just shy of 29% while the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate closed at 1.92%, down approximately 80bps from its level at the end of 2018. The U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY index) finished the year almost unchanged. Last week opened with reports of U.S. attacks on pro-Iranian military bases in Syria and Iraq and closed with news of a U.S. airstrike killing IRGC general Qassam Soleimani. Stock and bond markets barely reacted to the former news with markets experiencing very light trading activity Monday and Tuesday. On Thursday, the first trading day of the new year, the S&P 500 moved higher by almost 1% and U.S. 10-year Treasury rates fell about 4bps after the PBOC said it would further loosen monetary policy to support the Chinese economy. However, overnight news leading into Friday of the killing of Soleimani and weaker-than-expected ISM manufacturing index number the S&P 500 Index reversed almost all of Thursday’s gain and pushed the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate a few basis points lower. At week’s end, the S&P 500 Index was down 0.2% at 3234.85, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rates was down 9bps to 1.79% and the U.S. dollar was almost unchanged.
Though markets started the week with heightened concerns regarding possible Iran retailiatory actions against a U.S. airstrike killing IRGC general Soleimani, U.S. stock markets, 10-year U.S. Treasury rates and the U.S. dollar moved slightly higher through Tuesday. Overnight reports on Tuesday of Iranian missile attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq drove U.S. and global stock markets significantly lower before U.S. stock markets opened on Wednesday. President Trump’s speech before the nation late Wednesday morning defused tensions surrounding the U.S. and Iran and U.S. stock markets moved higher yet again through Thursday. Friday’s good-but-slightly-weaker-than-expected payroll report pushed U.S. stock markets off their highs and pushed the 10-year Treasury rate and the U.S. dollar slightly lower as well. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.2% to 3265.35, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 3bp to 1.82% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY index) strengthened 0.5%.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jan 10
27 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Though markets started the week with heightened concerns regarding possible Iran retailiatory actions against a U.S. airstrike killing IRGC general Soleimani, U.S. stock markets, 10-year U.S. Treasury rates and the U.S. dollar moved slightly higher through Tuesday. Overnight reports on Tuesday of Iranian missile attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq drove U.S. and global stock markets significantly lower before U.S. stock markets opened on Wednesday. President Trump’s speech before the nation late Wednesday morning defused tensions surrounding the U.S. and Iran and U.S. stock markets moved higher yet again through Thursday. Friday’s good-but-slightly-weaker-than-expected payroll report pushed U.S. stock markets off their highs and pushed the 10-year Treasury rate and the U.S. dollar slightly lower as well. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.2% to 3265.35, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate increased 3bp to 1.82% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY index) strengthened 0.5%.
Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic reports (retail sales, housing starts and jobless claims), moderate inflation and good earning releases drove the S&P 500 to another record high. In addition the official signing of the U.S.-China Phase One trade agreement and the removal of the designation of China as a currency manipulator along with a stronger-than-expected Chinese industrial production report, helped move U.S and global stock markets higher while strengthening the U.S. dollar. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.6% to 3329.62, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate was unchanged at 1.82% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY index) strengthened 0.3%.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jan 17
27 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic reports (retail sales, housing starts and jobless claims), moderate inflation and good earning releases drove the S&P 500 to another record high. In addition the official signing of the U.S.-China Phase One trade agreement and the removal of the designation of China as a currency manipulator along with a stronger-than-expected Chinese industrial production report, helped move U.S and global stock markets higher while strengthening the U.S. dollar. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.6% to 3329.62, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate was unchanged at 1.82% and the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY index) strengthened 0.3%.
U.S. stock markets were mostly unchanged through Thursday last week despite building concerns surrounding the coronavirus, more negative news regarding Boeing and the 737 MAX. 10-year U.S Treasury rates, in contrast, fell 9bps through Thursday moving lower as investor concerns over the coronavirus increased. On Friday, U.S. stock markets capitulated to coronavirus concerns after a second case was reported in the U.S., with the S&P 500 Index decreasing just under 1% and with the 10-year U.S Treasury rate falling another 5bps. At week’s end the S&P 500 lost a little over 1% closing at 3295.45, 10-year U.S Treasury rate dropped 14bps to 1.68% and the U.S. dollar strengthened 0.3% (as measured by the DXY Index).
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jan 24
26 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
U.S. stock markets were mostly unchanged through Thursday last week despite building concerns surrounding the coronavirus, more negative news regarding Boeing and the 737 MAX. 10-year U.S Treasury rates, in contrast, fell 9bps through Thursday moving lower as investor concerns over the coronavirus increased. On Friday, U.S. stock markets capitulated to coronavirus concerns after a second case was reported in the U.S., with the S&P 500 Index decreasing just under 1% and with the 10-year U.S Treasury rate falling another 5bps. At week’s end the S&P 500 lost a little over 1% closing at 3295.45, 10-year U.S Treasury rate dropped 14bps to 1.68% and the U.S. dollar strengthened 0.3% (as measured by the DXY Index).
The coronavirus and its possible deleterious effect on the global economy ruled the markets last week, pushing global stock markets and bond yields lower. Weaker-than-expected durable goods orders, new home sales and an as-expected GDP report combined with the FOMC leaving U.S. interest rates unchanged but expressing concerns about the coronavirus and the low level of inflation also helped to push U.S. stock markets and bond yields lower. At week’s end the S&P 500 fell 2.1% closing at 3225.52, the 10-year U.S Treasury rate fell 17bps to 1.51% and the U.S. dollar weakened 0.5% (as measured by the DXY Index).
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jan 31
26 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
The coronavirus and its possible deleterious effect on the global economy ruled the markets last week, pushing global stock markets and bond yields lower. Weaker-than-expected durable goods orders, new home sales and an as-expected GDP report combined with the FOMC leaving U.S. interest rates unchanged but expressing concerns about the coronavirus and the low level of inflation also helped to push U.S. stock markets and bond yields lower. At week’s end the S&P 500 fell 2.1% closing at 3225.52, the 10-year U.S Treasury rate fell 17bps to 1.51% and the U.S. dollar weakened 0.5% (as measured by the DXY Index).
Climate intersects with investing on many levels- look no further than to agricultural commodities. Examining seasonal avocado prices is just one example of how changes in climate may be increasingly interconnected with investing: a confluence of science, economics and ethics.
Topic: Commodities , Alternative Income
Publication Type: Investment Cases
Climate and Avocado Prices: Chart of the Week
26 March, 2020 | GraniteShares
Climate intersects with investing on many levels- look no further than to agricultural commodities. Examining seasonal avocado prices is just one example of how changes in climate may be increasingly interconnected with investing: a confluence of science, economics and ethics.
Despite continued concerns and uncertainties surrounding the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak and as the Shanghai Composite Index tumbled 7.7% on Monday, U.S. stock markets moved sharply higher through Thursday supported, by among other things, reports of the Chinese developing an effective drug against the coronavirus, improved U.S. trade deficit numbers, a very strong ADP payroll report, the Senate’s acquittal of President Trump and the Chinese announcing they would halve tariffs on $75 billion of U.S. imports. Coronavirus fears, however, resurfaced on Friday pushing U.S. stock markets lower for the first time last week despite a much-stronger-than-expected U.S. employment situation report. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 3.2% closing at 3327.71, the 10-year U.S Treasury rate increased 7bps to 1.58% and the U.S. dollar st
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Feb 7
26 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Despite continued concerns and uncertainties surrounding the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak and as the Shanghai Composite Index tumbled 7.7% on Monday, U.S. stock markets moved sharply higher through Thursday supported, by among other things, reports of the Chinese developing an effective drug against the coronavirus, improved U.S. trade deficit numbers, a very strong ADP payroll report, the Senate’s acquittal of President Trump and the Chinese announcing they would halve tariffs on $75 billion of U.S. imports. Coronavirus fears, however, resurfaced on Friday pushing U.S. stock markets lower for the first time last week despite a much-stronger-than-expected U.S. employment situation report. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 3.2% closing at 3327.71, the 10-year U.S Treasury rate increased 7bps to 1.58% and the U.S. dollar st
Amid reduced concern surrounding the coronavirus and supportive statements by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the strength of the U.S. economy and that the Fed was monitoring the possible effects of the coronavirus, U.S. stock markets moved higher once again last week. Reports on Tuesday the FTC would be investigating tech companies and China’s restatement higher of the number of coronavirus cases on Thursday, only momentarily moved U.S. stock markets lower with the FTC clarifying it was not investigating but only opening a study and as the WHO made clear China’s restatement did not represent a surge in the growth of new coronavirus cases. And despite weaker-than-expected industrial production numbers and so-so retails sales numbers on Friday, U.S. stock markets closed at all time highs on Friday. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.6% closing at 3380.16, the 10-year U.S Treasury rate was unchanged at 1.58% and the U.S. dollar strengthened .5% (as measured by the DXY Index).
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Feb 14
26 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Amid reduced concern surrounding the coronavirus and supportive statements by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the strength of the U.S. economy and that the Fed was monitoring the possible effects of the coronavirus, U.S. stock markets moved higher once again last week. Reports on Tuesday the FTC would be investigating tech companies and China’s restatement higher of the number of coronavirus cases on Thursday, only momentarily moved U.S. stock markets lower with the FTC clarifying it was not investigating but only opening a study and as the WHO made clear China’s restatement did not represent a surge in the growth of new coronavirus cases. And despite weaker-than-expected industrial production numbers and so-so retails sales numbers on Friday, U.S. stock markets closed at all time highs on Friday. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index increased 1.6% closing at 3380.16, the 10-year U.S Treasury rate was unchanged at 1.58% and the U.S. dollar strengthened .5% (as measured by the DXY Index).
Vacillating on coronavirus concerns, U.S. stock markets moved slightly lower through Thursday. A combination of Chinese stimulus measures and statements from China touting a reduced rate in coronavirus infections mostly offset Apple’s lower revenue warning on Tuesday. However, Friday’s much-weaker-than-expected IHS Markit composite output index along with China reporting 800 new coronavirus infections pushed U.S stock markets and the 10-year U.S. Treasury rates to the lows of the week. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index fell 1.3% to 3337.75, the 10-year U.S Treasury rate dropped 11bps to 1.47% and the U.S. dollar strengthened .2% (as measured by the DXY Index).
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Feb 21
26 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Vacillating on coronavirus concerns, U.S. stock markets moved slightly lower through Thursday. A combination of Chinese stimulus measures and statements from China touting a reduced rate in coronavirus infections mostly offset Apple’s lower revenue warning on Tuesday. However, Friday’s much-weaker-than-expected IHS Markit composite output index along with China reporting 800 new coronavirus infections pushed U.S stock markets and the 10-year U.S. Treasury rates to the lows of the week. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index fell 1.3% to 3337.75, the 10-year U.S Treasury rate dropped 11bps to 1.47% and the U.S. dollar strengthened .2% (as measured by the DXY Index).
U.S. and global stock markets sold off strongly last week on worsening coronavirus concerns. Fears of spreading contagion beyond China, brought to light by increased cases in Italy, Korea and Iran, “community spread” cases in the U.S. and a warning from the CDC about a possible pandemic pushed U.S. stock markets sharply lower and forced the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate to record lows. The S&P 500 Index fell over 3% on Monday and Tuesday and lost almost 4.5% on Thursday. And it was only Fed Chairman Powell’s statement on Friday that the Fed was monitoring the coronavirus’ effect on the economy and would act to maintain the expansion that prevented another 3%-or-more down day on Friday. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index dcreased 11.5% to close at 2,954.22, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell just over 32bps to 1.15% and the U.S. dollar weakened 1.14% (as measured by the DXY index).
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Feb 28
26 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
U.S. and global stock markets sold off strongly last week on worsening coronavirus concerns. Fears of spreading contagion beyond China, brought to light by increased cases in Italy, Korea and Iran, “community spread” cases in the U.S. and a warning from the CDC about a possible pandemic pushed U.S. stock markets sharply lower and forced the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate to record lows. The S&P 500 Index fell over 3% on Monday and Tuesday and lost almost 4.5% on Thursday. And it was only Fed Chairman Powell’s statement on Friday that the Fed was monitoring the coronavirus’ effect on the economy and would act to maintain the expansion that prevented another 3%-or-more down day on Friday. At week’s end the S&P 500 Index dcreased 11.5% to close at 2,954.22, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell just over 32bps to 1.15% and the U.S. dollar weakened 1.14% (as measured by the DXY index).
Another very volatile week for U.S and global stock and bond markets. Despite the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank’s emergency 100bp rate cut on Sunday evening, U.S. and global stock markets fell sharply on Monday with the S&P 500 Index falling 12%. Extremely weak Chinese economic numbers combined with California’s shelter-in-place order on Monday, greatly increased concerns of the effect of the coronavirus on the U.S. and global economy, pushing U.S and global stock markets significantly lower while also causing the 10-year Treasury rate to drop 23bps to 0.73%.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Mar 20
26 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Another very volatile week for U.S and global stock and bond markets. Despite the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank’s emergency 100bp rate cut on Sunday evening, U.S. and global stock markets fell sharply on Monday with the S&P 500 Index falling 12%. Extremely weak Chinese economic numbers combined with California’s shelter-in-place order on Monday, greatly increased concerns of the effect of the coronavirus on the U.S. and global economy, pushing U.S and global stock markets significantly lower while also causing the 10-year Treasury rate to drop 23bps to 0.73%.
Rapidly growing fears regarding the strength of global economic growth resulting from government measures to counteract the spread of the coronavirus as well Saudi Arabia’s desire to greatly increase oil output, moved U.S stock markets sharply lower and 10- and 30-year interest rates sharply higher while greatly increasing the volatility of both markets. WTI crude oil prices plunged over 30% intraday on Monday driving U.S. and global stock markets significantly lower (the S&P 500 Index closed down 7.6%) and triggering a trading halt on U.S. exchanges.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Mar 13
26 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Rapidly growing fears regarding the strength of global economic growth resulting from government measures to counteract the spread of the coronavirus as well Saudi Arabia’s desire to greatly increase oil output, moved U.S stock markets sharply lower and 10- and 30-year interest rates sharply higher while greatly increasing the volatility of both markets. WTI crude oil prices plunged over 30% intraday on Monday driving U.S. and global stock markets significantly lower (the S&P 500 Index closed down 7.6%) and triggering a trading halt on U.S. exchanges.
Except for natural gas, all components of the energy sector were lower last week. WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell 7.6% and 8.9%, respectively and gasoil and heating oil prices fell 5.6% and 6.1%, respectively. Gasoline prices fell 6.5%. Natural gas prices eked out a gain, increasing 0.1%
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Mar 6
09 March, 2020 | Jeff Klearman
Except for natural gas, all components of the energy sector were lower last week. WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell 7.6% and 8.9%, respectively and gasoil and heating oil prices fell 5.6% and 6.1%, respectively. Gasoline prices fell 6.5%. Natural gas prices eked out a gain, increasing 0.1%
Stronger-than-expected durable goods orders, consumer sentiment and job openings numbers combined with tepid inflation numbers overcame larger-than-expected jobless claims and disappointing industrial production numbers and helped push commodity and U.S. stock markets higher.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Mar 15
18 March, 2019 | Jeff Klearman
Stronger-than-expected durable goods orders, consumer sentiment and job openings numbers combined with tepid inflation numbers overcame larger-than-expected jobless claims and disappointing industrial production numbers and helped push commodity and U.S. stock markets higher.
Uncertainty over the completion of a U.S. –China trade agreement and weak economic numbers from the U.S., EU and China pushed most commodity prices and the U.S. stock markets lower last week.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities and Precious Metals Update (Week Ending Mar. 8)
11 March, 2019 | Jeff Klearman
Uncertainty over the completion of a U.S. –China trade agreement and weak economic numbers from the U.S., EU and China pushed most commodity prices and the U.S. stock markets lower last week.
Vacillating expectations of a US-China trade agreement and a combination of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s congressional comments and mixed U.S. economic reports left U.S stock markets and the U.S dollar little changed on the week.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities and Precious Metals Update (Week Ending Mar. 1)
05 March, 2019 | Jeff Klearman
Vacillating expectations of a US-China trade agreement and a combination of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s congressional comments and mixed U.S. economic reports left U.S stock markets and the U.S dollar little changed on the week.
Increasing expectations of a U.S.-China trade agreement and growing conviction the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank won’t raise rates this year helped move commodity and stock markets higher last week.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Feb 22
25 February, 2019 | GraniteShares
Increasing expectations of a U.S.-China trade agreement and growing conviction the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank won’t raise rates this year helped move commodity and stock markets higher last week.
Markedly lower European Union growth forecasts combined with reduced expectations of a US-China trade agreement before March 1st moved the U.S. dollar higher and commodity prices lower last week.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities and Precious Metals Update (Week Ending Feb. 8)
08 February, 2019 | Jeff Klearman
Markedly lower European Union growth forecasts combined with reduced expectations of a US-China trade agreement before March 1st moved the U.S. dollar higher and commodity prices lower last week.
The FOMC 2-day meeting ended on Wednesday with the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank leaving the Fed Funds target rate unchanged and indicating it would adopt a patient and more flexible stance on monetary policy going forward.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities and Precious Metals Update (Week Ending Feb. 1)
04 February, 2019 | Jeff Klearman
The FOMC 2-day meeting ended on Wednesday with the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank leaving the Fed Funds target rate unchanged and indicating it would adopt a patient and more flexible stance on monetary policy going forward.
Reports on Friday the Federal Reserve Bank would end its balance sheet wind-down sooner than expected help weaken the U.S dollar and supported U.S. stock markets.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jan 25
28 January, 2019 | Jeff Klearman
Reports on Friday the Federal Reserve Bank would end its balance sheet wind-down sooner than expected help weaken the U.S dollar and supported U.S. stock markets.
Firm’s low-cost gold ETF, BAR, leads the way pushing over $430 million
NEW YORK– GraniteShares, a disruptive exchange-traded fund (ETF) company, has become one of the fastest-growing asset managers in the U.S. by accumulating over $500 million in assets under management (AUM), representing 1,180 percent growth over the last year alone.*
This surge is led by the GraniteShares Gold Trust (NYSE Arca: BAR), which has swelled past $430 million in AUM**, having already attracted $113 million in 2019. With an expense ratio of just 17.49 basis points, BAR is one of the lowest-cost ways to invest in gold.
Topic: Commodities , Alternative Income
Publication Type: Viewpoints
GraniteShares AUM Skyrockets 1180% to $500M in First Year
28 January, 2019 | GraniteShares
Firm’s low-cost gold ETF, BAR, leads the way pushing over $430 million
NEW YORK– GraniteShares, a disruptive exchange-traded fund (ETF) company, has become one of the fastest-growing asset managers in the U.S. by accumulating over $500 million in assets under management (AUM), representing 1,180 percent growth over the last year alone.*
This surge is led by the GraniteShares Gold Trust (NYSE Arca: BAR), which has swelled past $430 million in AUM**, having already attracted $113 million in 2019. With an expense ratio of just 17.49 basis points, BAR is one of the lowest-cost ways to invest in gold.
Despite increased estimates of the cost of the government shutdown on U.S. GDP and the disruption of some government issued economic reports, the U.S. dollar strengthened and U.S stock markets rose on reduced concerns of slowing U.S. growth, optimism over a U.S. China-trade agreement and a much-stronger-than-expected industrial production report released on Friday.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jan 18
22 January, 2019 | Jeff Klearman
Despite increased estimates of the cost of the government shutdown on U.S. GDP and the disruption of some government issued economic reports, the U.S. dollar strengthened and U.S stock markets rose on reduced concerns of slowing U.S. growth, optimism over a U.S. China-trade agreement and a much-stronger-than-expected industrial production report released on Friday.
uoyed by US-China trade talk progress, FOMC minutes indicating a more flexible U.S. Federal Reserve Bank and a weaker-than-expected CPI number, the S&P 500 increased 2.5% and the U.S. dollar weakened 0.57%.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities & Precious Metals Weekly Report: Jan 11
14 January, 2019 | Jeff Klearman
uoyed by US-China trade talk progress, FOMC minutes indicating a more flexible U.S. Federal Reserve Bank and a weaker-than-expected CPI number, the S&P 500 increased 2.5% and the U.S. dollar weakened 0.57%.
erns over weak China and U.S growth primarily responsible for setting the tone.
Topic: Precious Metals , Commodity Baskets
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities and Precious Metals Report – Week Ending Jan. 4
08 January, 2019 | Jeff Klearman
erns over weak China and U.S growth primarily responsible for setting the tone.
Receding expectations of improved trade relations between the U.S and China combined with concerns of weaker economic growth in the U.S. moved the U.S dollar, U.S stock markets and U.S. treasury rates lower last week.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities and Precious Metals Report – Week Ending Dec. 7
10 December, 2018 | Jeff Klearman
Receding expectations of improved trade relations between the U.S and China combined with concerns of weaker economic growth in the U.S. moved the U.S dollar, U.S stock markets and U.S. treasury rates lower last week.
A combination of growing expectations of a positive meeting between the U.S. and China during the weekend’s G20 conference in Argentina and dovish comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell regarding monetary policy helped move U.S. equity markets higher and the U.S. dollar and 10-year Treasury rates lower.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Weekly Commodities & Precious Metals Report: Nov. 30
03 December, 2018 | Jeff Klearman
A combination of growing expectations of a positive meeting between the U.S. and China during the weekend’s G20 conference in Argentina and dovish comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell regarding monetary policy helped move U.S. equity markets higher and the U.S. dollar and 10-year Treasury rates lower.
Continuing concerns of slower global growth compounded by growing concerns of a U.S. slowdown helped push the S&P 500 lower last week moving its year-to-date performance into negative territory for the first time this year.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Weekly Commodities & Precious Metals Report: Nov. 23
26 November, 2018 | Jeff Klearman
Continuing concerns of slower global growth compounded by growing concerns of a U.S. slowdown helped push the S&P 500 lower last week moving its year-to-date performance into negative territory for the first time this year.
Up nearly 0.7% through Tuesday on expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank would continue raising interest rates as a result of a stronger-than-expected PPI report the previous week, the U.S. dollar finished the week down almost 0.5% after Federal Reserve Bank Vice Chairman Richard Clarida commented that interest rates are reaching neutral levels and that the U.S.Federal Reserve Bank needed to be aware of any slowing of economic growth.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Weekly Commodities & Precious Metals Report: Nov. 16
19 November, 2018 | Jeff Klearman
Up nearly 0.7% through Tuesday on expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank would continue raising interest rates as a result of a stronger-than-expected PPI report the previous week, the U.S. dollar finished the week down almost 0.5% after Federal Reserve Bank Vice Chairman Richard Clarida commented that interest rates are reaching neutral levels and that the U.S.Federal Reserve Bank needed to be aware of any slowing of economic growth.
Initially weakening on the back U.S mid-term election results, the U.S. dollar moved higher on Thursday and Friday with a stronger-than-expected PPI report on Friday and an FOMC statement – coming at the end of a 2-day meeting on Thursday– indicating the Federal Reserve Bank would continue with its tightening policy.
Topic: Gold , Commodities
Publication Type: Market Commentaries
Commodities and Precious Metals Report – Week Ending Nov. 9
13 November, 2018 | Jeff Klearman
Initially weakening on the back U.S mid-term election results, the U.S. dollar moved higher on Thursday and Friday with a stronger-than-expected PPI report on Friday and an FOMC statement – coming at the end of a 2-day meeting on Thursday– indicating the Federal Reserve Bank would continue with its tightening policy.
Commodities fuel the world’s economy. Raw materials like copper or crude oil are essential for industrial processes in all sectors of all markets, from Buffalo to Beijing. As such, commodities offer a unique opportunity to invest in economic growth at its most elemental level.
Topic: Commodities , Alternative Income
Publication Type: Investment Cases
Commodities: Why Now? An Investment Case
12 November, 2018 | GraniteShares
Commodities fuel the world’s economy. Raw materials like copper or crude oil are essential for industrial processes in all sectors of all markets, from Buffalo to Beijing. As such, commodities offer a unique opportunity to invest in economic growth at its most elemental level.
